2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Kickers and Defense

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds. As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all. That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts. As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once. This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium. Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky. Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust. Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense. I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy). Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them. My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL. None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense. The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense. Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct. Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points. However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP. Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for. Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

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Aug

2010

2010 Minnesota Vikings Packers Fantasy Football Preview

POSTED BY Big Jim | 1 Comment »

Well for the first time in 2 years we all thought it was in the bag that he would be returning for another season. And at the first whiff of a rumor it is assumed that he will not be playing. Having heard Brett’s retirement speech already I will remain under the assumption that he will be playing until he is not on the field against the Saints for the season opener. So if any of you are wondering why he is still on my rankings pretty high up there and Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are also unaffected… that is why. The most interesting part of the storyline here for fantasy football is not Tarvaris Jackson or the fall of Rice and Harvin; Instead, its that without Favre to call the audibles and boost the passing game, Adrian Peterson would likely become my number one overall RB. With Favre at QB, the Vikings dropped back to pass 7% more than in 2008 with Ferotte and Jackson at the helm (Thanks to the guys on the Fantasy Focus podcast for that stat). Having done a couple of mock drafts since the “news” about Favre I think we all need to look at the Vikings players as having big upside. Most people are letting Harvin drop into the 8th round, where he still has value with Jackson pulling the trigger… and if Favre comes back he would go in round 5 or so.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Adrian Peterson – He was our number one back last year and while people were disappointed that he did not have many HUGE games… he was a model on consistency and did nothing to lose his ranking. The reason he DID lose the ranking was merely the absurd stats that Chris Johnson put up.

Sidney Rice – Whether he has Favre or not Rice will be a very relevant fantasy WR. He will not be an elite receiver without his favorite gunslinger so his rank will need to fall if we do not hear some good news soon, but I’m not doing it yet.

D/ST – The Vikings defense comes in 3rd on my rankings despite the weakness in the secondary. To me, the success of a defense is dependent on it’s ability to stop the run, for evidence you can look at the stats on my Buffalo Bills’ defense last year.

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Jul

2010

2010 New York Jets Fantasy Football Preview

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Rex Ryan is apparently a genius. Every move he has made has been the right one and assuming nothing insane happens with the Revis contract talks or the development of Mark Sanchez; the Jets are my favorite to win the division. They will have the best defense in the NFL as well as fantasy football due to the complex blitzing scheme of mastermind Rex Ryan. If they can keep the best rushing attack in the league as well… then they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. LaDanian Tomlinson can be expected to pick up some goal line and third down work.

Top Fantasy Players

Shonn Greene – Given the level work given to Greene during the playoffs last year and the departure of all the other running backs on the team there is an immense amount of confidence in this young man.

Santonio Holmes – Sanchez needed a deep threat with better hands than Braylon Edwards, and that is exactly what Holmes will be… come week 5. Shortly after being acquired by the Jets it was announced that Holmes would face a 4 game suspension due to violating the substance abuse policy. This will make Holmes a great value in late rounds, but there is some risk that there is no chemistry between him and Sanchez so production could start slow as well as late.

Jets D/ST – If last year’s defense was any indication of what is to come then opposing offenses are in for some trouble. The Jets were the best defense last year, and they added depth and talent to the roster.

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Dec

2009