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Question 1: Asked by Bruce.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. OAK) or Josh Freeman (@ MIN)?

Answer

This is a tough call and one that could go either way. I have Freeman with a slight edge here.  The Tampa Offense is more consistently productive than Buffalo’s is and Minnesota was barely able to keep their offense on the field in week 1.  As far as I am concerned both players are VERY good QB2 options this week, but either guy should do pretty well.  You should trust your gut!

Question 2: Asked by @MFarrell21.

Dwayne Bowe, Steve Smith (carolina). DeAngelo Williams, Cadillac Williams. Need one WR and one RB. Thoughts and why?

Answer

Bowe won’t be able to repeat last season, but he certainly will do better than last week.  And I also don’t think Steve Smith isn’t going to be able to repeat last week either.  I would start Bowe this week as he faces a Lions secondary that is vulnerable to the big play and the Chiefs are going to be looking to make a statement and show they are still a playoff caliber team.  As for the RB choice, I would go with DeAngelo Williams.  We know what his workload will be and while it may not be likely that he has a huge day, I think he is the most likely to get you into double digit points.  This is definitely one of my “play it safe” calls so if your a risk-taker, Caddy is still a solid option this week with a bit more upside.

Question 3: Asked by @aglikas.

Would you trade Reggie Bush 2 get Dez Bryant? I have AP, Steven Jackson & R.Grant. I need WR’s BAD! WR’s are Maclin, Driver, H.Ward, S.Rice.

Answer

In a heart beat.  I think Bryant is going to be the top fantasy WR in Dallas this season and that is not my way of saying that Miles Austin will be a slouch.  Reggie Bush is almost a sure thing to miss a few games to injury this year as he is playing on a natural play surface and that is rougher on the knees and ankles of these fast, quick-cut backs. In addition, if both players do play 16 games this year, Bryant will score significantly more points than Bush.  Great job of negotiating this one, don’t wait to pull the trigger.  He might wise-up.

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What a crazy start to the 2011 season. We saw proven, storied franchises collapse completely and we saw a rookie debut record from a class of QBs that no one was excited about. So lets get this week 1 recap started!

Studs

Tom Brady, QB, NE – Over 500 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll excuse the INT because he probably single-handedly won your week 1 match up if you had him.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton was not expected to be an immediate success in the NFL.  He came from an option-style offense after just one year and one NCAA championship. Many people, including myself, felt that he was not worth the number 1 overall draft pick.  24 completions on 37 attempts, 422 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. That shut me up. This yardage total is a record for rookie’s in their debut, beating out Peyton Manning’s first ever rookie performance.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Wow. Are the Raven’s that good or are the Steelers that bad? Honestly, probably neither.  But Rice’s performance was outstanding considering how dominant the Steelers defense has been.  He was certainly helped by 7 turnovers increasing his number of chances, but I am interested to see just how big of a season Rice will have running behind Vonta Leach.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith definitely helped Cam look good Sunday as he faced off against Patrick Peterson and made him look foolish all day in coverage. After last season, in my Year in Review article, I discussed how if Carolina could land a decent QB then Smith would return to fantasy relevance. I am still not betting on Newton’s consistency, but Newton sure looks like he will be enough to make Smith into a startable option for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – He may not have racked up too much yardage, but any fantasy owner loves to see a 3 TD performance and that’s what Tolbert did this week. He did appear to be hurt late in that game, but all reports have been great since the game and we can expect Tolbert to be at 100% for week 2.  His usage in the passing game and especially in the red zone makes Tolbert the clear guy to own of the Chargers running backs.  At least for now.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Bears offense looks to be building off their success from last season and Forte is going to be a big part of that with his pass catching ability out of the backfield. I was surprised to see Khalil Bell get 10 carries in the win over the Falcons, but in a Mike Martz system, you want the guy that catches the ball so I am not concerned.  Especially not following 158 all-purpose yards and a TD.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I love to talk about this guy, I don’t think people are giving him the credit he deserves.  He tallied 136 yards on 5 catches and scored twice in Week 1.  This is going to be a season to remember for Britt and it will be without an elite QB.  This guy has a really bright future and will be a big part of your season if you were lucky enough to draft him.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – 150 yards on 22 carries? I guess he isn’t a one-year wonder.  While the match-up wasn’t great, neither was anyone else on the Raiders.  He will remain an integral part of the game plan and he is a number 1 caliber back in my opinion.

Chad Henne, QB, MIA – People might not have noticed exactly how good Henne was in a losing effort on Monday night.  His opponent Brady overshadowed him pretty bad, but Henne finished as the 2nd highest point total among all QB’s in the NFL in week 1 and should not be on free agency if you have serious QB concerns.

Duds

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben committed FIVE turnovers this week with three interceptions and two lost fumbles as the Steelers looked completely inept against division rival Baltimore Ravens.  A bad game doesn’t make me as nervous as the loss of right tackle Willie Colon for the season as the offensive line was weak already.  You need a good, servicable back up for Ben this year.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Rivers ended up with a decent enough point total that he evades a spot on this list, but Rivers did not play that well in Week 1.  The Chargers are known to start slow and managed to claw their way to a win… but special teams hurt them again and Jackson was not a factor in the vertical passing game, which will need to change for the Chargers to be a Super Bowl contender as they hope to be.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Holding out as long as he did really slowed the start of the season for CJ2k as he had just 24 yards rushing and 25 receiving. I thought he was supposed to be one of the top playmakers in the NFL? I guess he’ll have to earn that pay check next week.  If you own him, your starting him.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – The Buccs have some work to do because despite how close the score looked at the end of the game, the Lions really controlled the game from start to finish and Blount was rendered ineffective by a need to pass to try and get back into the game.  Blount needs carries to get into a rhythm and wear down the defense so I am not too concerned, but we can expect at least a few more games like this by the end of the season.  He is still a solid RB2.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I kinda called this one, the Buffalo pass defense does not get enough credit and they really shut down the Chiefs in week 1.  I have concerns going forward for Bowe, but I had them before and he is no more than a low-end WR2 in my eyes.  He will drop further if KC can’t get their running game going either.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons offense looked out-matched against the Bears D and Ryan was not a very effective passer in this game. I think the Falcons will get ti figured out and I am not overly concerned with Ryan going forward.

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It’s that time folks.  The regular season is upon us and my Player Rankings for Week 1 have been released.  I hope you are all as excited as I am and good luck to you all this season!

Love

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Charles is a guy that I believe in and as Thomas Jones ages, Charles’ carries will go up.  The Bills allowed an abysmal 169.6 yards per game, which was the worst in the league.  They did draft Marcell Dareus to help fix this problem but with a shortened off-season due to the lockout, the immediate impact of Dareus will be lessened.  Charles is among the best young RB talent in the NFL and you have to like his chances to break a big play or two against such a mediocre at best run defense.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – The Chargers were one of the teams that managed to put together a decent off season program without the help of their coaching staff or management during the lockout. Also, there wasn’t too much turn-over from last season to this season as far as the offense is concerned.  This all adds up to an uncharacteristic fast-start for Norv Turner, Philip Rivers and the Chargers in my opinion.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Denver is not just Oakland’s week one opponent, they were also last season’s 2nd worst rush defense.  This isn’t really about match-up either. McFadden averaged 128 yards per game in all-purpose yards last season and is, until further notice, a must-start in my opinion.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I’ve been pretty open about my love for Britt for a while now and with no suspension and a weak opposing secondary in week 1, Britt is a must-start in my opinion.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – You may be surprised to see ME put this guy on my love list, because I was not big on him going into the draft.  My concern with Hillis has always been about durability and the fact that Montario Hardesty is more talented than Hillis and below him on the depth chart.  I think that at some point this season, Hillis misses a game and Hardesty is someone I think will be able to take advantage of the playing time and win the starting role. Until then, Hillis is a great RB 2 and especially against a team led by a rookie QB (Cincinnati).

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Freeman and the Buccs lost to the Lions at home last season and it cost them a playoff spot.  You think they want revenge? Because I’ll bet they are pretty pumped to start the season off with a W in such a meaningful way.  The Lions bolstered their defensive front this offseason while not addressing their porous secondary.  I expect Freeman to look deep a few times in this game and a tough week 1 for LeGarrette Blount if the Buccs can’t move the ball in the air.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – Let’s not mistake this for some crazy Kerry Collins love.  This is about the Texans secondary being almost the worst in NFL history last season and having to adjust to a new system ran by Wade Phillips.  Wayne is a very consistent and complete receiver and he is who Collins will trust on third downs.  He just barely cracks my top 20, but that makes him a starter.  Don’t let the lack of Peyton scare you into benching him.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – I wouldn’t have drafted him as my RB2, but injuries are the concern here and a healthy Beanie Wells should have a good day against the Panthers in week 1.  Cam Newton is not likely to start too smoothly in his first regular season NFL start without a short off-season and it’s very possibly that this is an ugly game for Carolina fans.  I expect the Cardinals to lead-off with a heavy rushing attack to ease new QB Kevin Kolb into a routine and comfort level too.

Hate

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – A lot of people reached for Julio Jones on draft day because of the absurd combine performance he had and how much the Falcons gave up to draft him.  What they don’t realize is the complexity of the Falcons offense as well as the lockout will severely limit the plays that Jones will be on the field for.  He will spend a  lot of time running deep routes to attract safety help out of respect for his speed and he will do a much better job of opening up passing lanes for Roddy White than anything else.  Look for Jones to start slow and slowly become a viable flex play.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – You are in trouble this week if you drafted Flacco as a starter or maybe as your backup to Peyton.  Flacco faces the division rival Steelers and after what I saw them do to Vick in the preseason, the focus will likely be on grinding out Ray Rice and the running game.  Flacco could have troubles breaking double digit points in this game.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – Bowe had a great season last year and there is little chance he can repeat those numbers.  He played the Bills last year and was held to just 16 yards on his 3 catches.  Fantasy owners barely noticed this lack luster performance because a very short TD catch was involved and he ended up not ruining anyone’s week.  Don’t expect Bowe to be anything more than a good WR2 and you won’t get burned.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SF – Lynch made for an interesting draft selection this year with top 20 potential.  But let’s make him prove he can live up to it before we risk a roster spot for him yet.  He faces a stout 49er line-backing corp led by Patrick Willis and Lynch is too inconsistent for my liking at the moment.

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Before it gets too far away from the end of the 2010 NFL season, we should take a look back at a few players who either exceeded expectations or didn’t come close.  These players can make or break your draft next year as their former owners clamor for a chance to own their savior from last season again, or let them fall way too deep in the draft because of bitter feelings of resentment.  In order to be a good fantasy football player you have to have a short memory, but there are always a few nuggets of information worth remembering over the long-term:

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – He was a dud this past season and it is easy to think that he is getting old and no longer a factor.  I took a look at his production and found something worth noting, take a look for yourself:

Games with Matt Moore at QB

Games without Matt Moore at QB

*Matt Moore started but was knocked out due to injury in the first half.

Moore did not make the Panthers a better team by any stretch, but he clearly had a trust and connection with the only legitimate receiving threat that Carolina had last year.  I am not saying that he has much value going into next season, but the Panthers are very likely to go with a different QB next season and I do not blame Smith for his mediocre numbers. Smith could end up a gem if he can build chemistry with whoever is at Quarterback for the Panthers, so don’t be afraid to use a mid to late round pick on him at next years draft.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – What more can you ask for from the Chief’s stud running back, who burst on the scene last year? MORE CARRIES!  I have been on record saying that Todd Haley is an idiot, but it never hurts to say it again.  Charles averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was highest in the NFL for all players who saw over 100 carries on the season. Charles was also 2^nd in total yards with 1,467, not far behind Arian Foster who had 1,616.  Even more impressively, he did it on just 230 carries (Foster had 327).  Thomas Jones was the other back involved in the league’s top rushing attack and despite having just a 3.7 YPC average Jones saw 15 more carries.  This was essentially a 50/50 timeshare, but look for Charles to get better every season from here on out.  Thomas Jones is aging quickly while Charles gains experience, he will be trusted to carry the ball more often. This guy is here to stay and I do not see his production dropping off even a little next year.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was very surprised that the Chiefs made the playoffs this season and Dwayne Bowe was a big part of their success.  He started the season pretty poorly, with 152 yards and one TD in his first four games.  In weeks 6 and 7 he went up against two of the worst secondaries in the NFL and his production spiked with 189 yards and four TDs in those two weeks.  He went on a 7 game scoring streak recording 13 touchdowns during that timeframe.  Easily lost in these impressive stats is the trouble that Bowe had against quality defensive backs; In week 13 Bowe was held without a catch against an aging Champ Bailey and in week 8 against Buffalo, he had three catches for just 16 yards (though one of them was a TD).  Lastly, the team’s passing offense disappeared when Matt Cassel missed a game against the Chargers in week 14.  I don’t blame this on Bowe but for me to take a guy as my top wide receiver, I’d like to think he could get open at least ONCE for his backup QB.  All this points to Bowe having a lot of upside for next season, but it is not without risk.  Bowe is nothing more than a WR2 until he can produce more consistently, so don’t get caught paying too high a price to have him on your team next season.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI – Celek had a breakout season in 2009 when Donovan McNabb was at Quarterback for the Eagles and appeared to be a big part of their offense last season when Kevin Kolb was running the show.  Once Michael Vick took the starting job, Celek appeared to become an afterthought.  The fact is that with a mobile quarterback like Vick, the tight end will not be used as often as with a pocket passer… especially when the offensive line struggles as it did last year. The end of the season was better for Celek, but the big issue for me will be his consistency.  There might be more 10-reception games like in week 16 on the horizon, but I am much more concerned with how many 0-2 fantasy-point outings are waiting for his fantasy owners.  I think Celek has the skill to be a top-5 TE, but the situation looks to be a frustrating one for fantasy owners and you can find a better value at the position during next year’s draft.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – There was a lot of hype going into last year’s fantasy draft season about Shonn Greene being the lead guy for the Jets.  This was not the case, LT showed that he still has what it takes to be a dynamic playmaker and was pivotal to the early success that the Jets had.  Later in the year however, LT slowed down and made less of an impact.  LT might be getting old, but he still has the ability to make an impact in a supporting role.  He was used as the lead back most of the season and because of that he wore down and was not as effective a weapon late in the year.  If Rex Ryan hopes to get the most of LT deep into the playoffs he will need to lean much more heavily on Shonn Greene, which knocks LT out of my top 30 running backs for next season.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – Britt is my biggest sleeper pick for next year’s fantasy draft.  I am by no means alone in this, but there is good reason that so many people think he is about to explode… he already did.  Last season Britt started just 7 games and still managed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  This is an average of over 110 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.  These averages are slightly inflated due to a 225 yard 3 score game in week 7, but since when do we mind letting one player put up 40+ points with their backup QB?  Right now I see Britt as a top-15 receiver, but this all depends on how the Titans go about addressing their QB situation.  The Titans also have a new head coach, Mike Munchak, who was a 9 time pro-bowl offensive lineman and is sure to favor the ground game.  This actually bodes well for Britt however, because Chris Johnson will force defenders to bring an eighth into the box to contain him and severely limit their ability to double cover Britt.  I expect the Titans to look to add a veteran QB to their roster in an effort to give them a chance to win right out of the gates and if say, Donovan McNabb landed the job… the Titans would instantly have a playoff-caliber team.  All we really need now is a new CBA so that free agency can happen…

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