1.	49ers	@  STL
2.	Steelers	@ CLE
3.	Bears	@ MIN
4.	Ravens	@ CIN
5.	Falcons	Vs. TB
6.	Eagles	Vs. WAS
7.	Jets	@ MIA
8.	Seahawks	@ ARI
9.	Texans	Vs. TEN
10.	Broncos	Vs. KC
11.	Bengals	Vs. BAL
12.	Lions	@ GB
13.	Dolphins	Vs. NYJ
14.	Jaguars	Vs. IND
15.	Packers	Vs. DET
16.	Titans	@ HOU
17.	Cardinals	Vs. SEA
18.	Vikings	Vs. CHI
19.	Colts	@ JAC
20.	Chiefs	@ DEN
21.	Chargers	@ OAK
22.	Cowboys	@ NYG
23.	Giants	Vs. DAL
24.	Chiefs	@ DEN
25.	Patriots	Vs. BUF

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1.	Ravens	@ CLE
2.	49ers	Vs. STL
3.	Jets	@ WAS
4.	Bears	Vs. KC
5.	Cowboys	@ ARI
6.	Steelers	Vs. CIN
7.	Broncos	@ MIN
8.	Patriots	Vs. IND
9.	Bengals	@ PIT
10.	Eagles	@ SEA
11.	Packers	@ NYG
12.	Texans	Vs. ATL
13.	Titans	@ BUF
14.	Jaguars	Vs. SD
15.	Falcons	@ HOU
16.	Raiders	@ MIA
17.	Vikings	Vs. DEN
18.	Dolphins	Vs. OAK
19.	Chargers	@ JAC
20.	Redskins	Vs. NYJ
21.	Seahawks	Vs. PHI
22.	Chiefs	@ CHI
23.	Saints	Vs. DET
24.	Bills	Vs. TEN
25.	Rams	@ SF

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1.	Ravens	@ SEA
2.	Eagles	Vs. ARI
3.	Texans	@ TB
4.	Steelers	@ CIN
5.	49ers	Vs. NYG
6.	Packers	Vs. MIN
7.	Lions	@ CHI
8.	Cowboys	Vs. BUF
9.	Jets	Vs. NE
10.	Bengals	Vs. PIT
11.	Giants	@ SF
12.	Chargers	Vs. OAK
13.	Bears	Vs. DET
14.	Jaguars	@ IND
15.	Saints	@ ATL
16.	Chiefs	Vs. DEN
17.	Bills	@ DAL
18.	Redskins	@ MIA
19.	Falcons	Vs. NO
20.	Rams	@ CLE
21.	Browns	Vs. STL
22.	Broncos	@ KC
23.	Dolphins	Vs. WAS
24.	Patriots	@ NYJ
25.	Raiders	@ SD

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1.	49ers	@ WAS
2.	Ravens	@ PIT
3.	Texans	Vs. CLE
4.	Steelers	Vs. BAL
5.	Cowboys	Vs. SEA
6.	Bengals	@ TEN
7.	Packers	@ SD
8.	Chiefs	Vs. MIA
9.	Eagles	Vs. DEN
10.	Jets	@ BUF
11.	Saints	Vs. TB
12.	Falcons	@ IND
13.	Bills	Vs. NYJ
14.	Raiders	Vs. DEN
15.	Titans	Vs. CIN
16.	Patriots	Vs. NYG
17.	Bears	@ PHI
18.	Redskins	Vs. SF
19.	Giants	@ NE
20.	Chargers	Vs. GB
21.	Broncos	@ OAK
22.	Seahawks	@ DAL
23.	Cardinals	Vs. STL
24.	Buccaneers	@ NO
25.	Rams	@ ARI

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Cowboys at Eagles

Dallas has been a very inconsistent team this season.  Half the time Romo looks like a hero and the other half he looks like a scapegoat. Philadelphia has the opposite problem.  They have been consistently awful all season long!  They struggle to stop the run on defense and they also have not been able to keep from turning the ball over on offense. Offensive production in terms of points and yardage have never been the issue, but they just simply have not been able to overcome the turn overs.  I expect Dallas to lean on DeMarco Murray to take full advantage of the Eagles undersized defensive front and inability to contain the running game.  Because of Murray, the Cowboys should be able to keep Vick and the Eagles high-flying offense on the sideline and control the clock.  Dallas also has the ability to go deep with Austin and Bryant at receiver so this should be a great game regardless of who wins. I slightly downgrade the Cowboys ground game and think Murray is a must-start as an RB2 for this week. The Dallas defense is not good enough to make me downgrade any of the Eagles and you should still be starting all the usual suspects despite the losing streak. I like Dallas to win a close game with a heavy dose of the run game.

Patriots at Steelers

Brady has historically had no trouble passing against the Steelers and Pittsburgh has no one that can contain Welker, but I expect the run game to be a big part of New England’s plan this week.  Law Firm has been running strong the past couple of weeks and Ridley has been coming along as his primary backup.  With two quality runners and a Steelers defense that has been pretty mediocre against the run, Brady will probably not stick to the pass too much.  I think that the Steelers passing game should be in a for a big day.  Roethlisberger has not had much time to throw this season but then again, the Patriots have not been able to get much pressure on the QB or cover receivers in the vertical passing game.  Mike Wallace is an absolute MUST start in this match up and if you have Big Ben, you likely do not have a better option either. Welker and Brady have just been too good this season to bench ever too and I think New England squeaks out a win in a VERY close game.

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1.	Giants	Vs. SEA
2.	Lions	Vs. CHI
3.	Packers	@ ATL
4.	Titans	@ PIT
5.	Texans	Vs. OAK
6.	Chargers	@ DEN
7.	49ers	Vs. TB
8.	Jets	@ NE
9.	Bengals	@ JAC
10.	Eagles	@ BUF
11.	Bears	@ DET
12.	Buccaneers	@ SF
13.	Steelers	Vs. TEN
14.	Saints	@ CAR
15.	Chiefs	@ IND
16.	Patriots	Vs. NYJ
17.	Vikings	Vs. ARI
18.	Bills	Vs. PHI
19.	Cardinals	@ MIN
20.	Colts	Vs. KC
21.	Falcons	Vs. GB
22.	Jaguars	Vs. CIN
23.	Raiders	@ HOU
24.	Broncos	Vs. SD
25.	Seahawks	@ NYG

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Lines Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/2 1:00 ET	At Dallas	-2.5	Detroit	46
10/2 1:00 ET	New Orleans	-7	At Jacksonville	45
10/2 1:00 ET	At Philadelphia	-9.5	San Francisco	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	Washington	-2.5	At St. Louis	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Cleveland	-1	Tennessee	39
10/2 1:00 ET	Buffalo	-3	At Cincinnati	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	Minnesota	-3	At Kansas City	39.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-6.5	Carolina	42.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Houston	-3.5	Pittsburgh	45
10/2 4:05 ET	Atlanta	-4.5	At Seattle	38.5
10/2 4:05 ET	NY Giants	-1	At Arizona	44.5
10/2 4:15 ET	At San Diego	-7	Miami	44.5
10/2 4:15 ET	At Green Bay	-12	Denver	46
10/2 4:15 ET	New England	-5	At Oakland	55
10/2 8:25 ET	At Baltimore	-3.5	NY Jets	42

Monday Night Football Line

10/3 8:35 ET	At Tampa Bay	-10	Indianapolis	40.5

I’M TAKING

At Dallas -2.5 Detroit

Dallas is a decent team with talent all over the field but they are dealing with injuries everywhere and are coming of a home win that they had to sneak out at the last second against Rex Grossman and the Redskins.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.  The Lions are healthy, loaded and most of all undefeated and playing with tons of confidence.  I’m taking Detroit getting 2.5 points on the road in Dallas

New England -5 At Oakland

Coming off a loss to a team they thought they should have beat the Patriots will be out for blood.  This team was embarrassed last week in Buffalo as Brady threw 4 picks and they left Orchard Park with their tails between their legs.  Look for Belichik and Co to put a world class beating on the overmatched Raiders in Oakland.  Brady will get back on track with 4 TD’s minimum and I’m more confident in the Pats covering -5 points than any other pick I’ve made so far this season.

Atlanta -4.5 At Seattle

The Seahawks are terrible.  They can’t run, they can’t pass and they can’t play D.  Not a good thing when Matt Ryan and his boys come to town.  Seattle is notorious for having a deafeningly loud stadium but that is not going to help their shaky D cover an Atlanta team 2 deep at all playmaking positions that also rolls out a Top 5 WR, Top 5 RB and a potential Top 5 TE in Tony Gonzalez.  Take the Dirty Birds to cover the spread and rest easily on your couch watching them laugh at -4.5 points.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Philadelphia -9.5 San Francisco

When Philly is good they are unstoppable.  The problem is, Vick is banged up AGAIN this week and even though he looks like a go, this team, despite their immense talent is just too hot and cold right now for me to count on them covering almost ten points.  Now, they easily could win by 21 but on the other hand, they could also win by a last second field goal.  They’ve not looked like the team prognosticators had them being so far this season and until they can prove consistently that they are a real Top 5 team, I cannot count on them to cover -9.5 points.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

Buffalo -3 At Cincinnati

The Bills are the better team and should win this game, but as so often happens after an emotional game, teams sometimes come out with an emotional letdown the following week.  Not saying its going to happen but it could and Vegas thinks so as eveidenced by being only a 3 point road favorite on the road.  Cincy has a good defense, probably the best the Bills have seen this season (not saying much) but I just smell a very close game and maybe even a 1 point loss for the Bills.  I just don’t feel like this is a safe bet and there are much better games to place your money on.

Washington – 2.5 At St. Louis

Ugliest game of the week. Could go either way, don’t go near it.

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49ers at Eagles

Well clearly this week is light on the  really good match ups, since Alex Smith’s team is making it into my preview article.  But oddly enough the 9ers sit at 2-1, in first place of their division and the Eagles are currently at 1-2 in last place of theirs. The so-called dream-team has some work to do as they figure out how to work as a team and keep their QB from being battered bruised and broken before the bye week. The Eagles secondary is by far the most talented group in the NFL and yet Eli Manning picked them apart last week and their line-backing corp is a legitimate weak spot that makes them vulnerable to the run.  The 49ers offense however has looked sluggish and down right bad so far despite the winning record.  Their biggest threat, Frank Gore, has been a HUGE disappointment for fantasy owners and even last week the backup Kendall Hunter seemed faster into the holes and seemed to be able to find better creases in the defense.  The only chance the 9ers have to steal a win on the road this week is for Gore to step it up and be the player he has been for the past few years.  If he is able to keep drives alive and be an effective runner, then the 49ers will have a shot.  Their front seven is going to be able to reach Vick plenty in this game as the Eagles have yet to figure out their offensive line issues.   Vick is coming off a concussion and what they thought was a broken non-throwing hand which turned out to be a bruise and if the pressure is getting to him and the 49ers can get a running game clicking, this could become a very close game.  I wouldn’t start any 49ers apart from Vernon Davis and Frank Gore (only out of sheer necessity as he continues to plummet in my ranks with each terrible performance). And you can feel comfortable starting all your Eagles play makers, even if Vick is for some reason not in the lineup they would be OK in this match up. I think the Eagles will prove to be too tough for the 49ers and if Gore continues this slump, it could get ugly.

Lions at Cowboys

Detroit finally appears to have things turned around as they have been an explosive offense over the first three games and are still undefeated as they head down to play the Cowboys in Dallas. If both teams were healthy I would probably take the Cowboys at home but with just one quality receiver to cover, I think the Lions’ offense will lead them to a shocking 4-0 start in what may turn into a shoot out. Tony Romo won’t be as banged up this week as he was in week 3 and I think he is able to connect with Witten and Bryant quite a bit. You will want to start all of your fantasy players in this game as I don’t think either secondary matches up well against the quality of the passing attacks in this game.  Jahvid Best’s value will continue to depend on his receiving ability and the big play and he remains, in my eyes, the best flex play available. Calvin Johnson and his two TDs in every single game has become the top fantasy WR in the NFL and Matthew Stafford even cracked my top 5 at QB. Look for the Lions to win a nail biter here and for everyone to have a good statistical performance in a high scoring game.

Jets at Ravens

I do not like this match up for the Jets. This new look, pass-first, Jets offense is not as impressive to me as the ground and pound attack that has taken them to two consecutive AFC championship games.  This should be a close game, but I definitely think that the Ravens are able to force turnovers and keep Sanchez in check throughout this game.  I am looking for the Ravens to use Ray Rice to expose the weakness of the Jets Defense… stopping the run. I would not expect to see a big game from ANY receivers or QBs in this game and would look to find a serviceable replacement for both Sanchez and Flacco if you’ve been using them thus far. Santonio Holmes is the one guy that is probably worth a flex start as he is just the one that is most likely to pull off a big play. I think these teams are definitely both playoff teams, but this could get ugly for the Jets.  Sit everyone not named Ray Rice and brace yourselves for a one-sided Ravens victory, Jets fans.

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1.	Eagles	Vs. SF
2.	Packers	Vs. DEN
3.	Giants	@ ARI
4.	Bears	Vs. CAR
5.	Chargers	@ HOU
6.	Saints	@ JAC
7.	Falcons	@ SEA
8.	Jets	@ BAL
9.	Steelers	@ HOU
10.	Lions	@ DAL
11.	Texans	Vs. PIT
12.	Redskins	@ STL
13.	Buccaneers	Vs. IND
14.	Vikings	@ KC
15.	Titans	@ CLE
16.	Seahawks	Vs. ATL
17.	Bills	@ CIN
18.	Patriots	@ OAK
19.	Chiefs	Vs. MIN
20.	Cardinals	Vs. NYG
21.	Browns	Vs. TEN
22.	Rams	Vs. WAS
23.	Raiders	Vs. NE
24.	Panthers	@ CHI
25.	Dolphins	@ SD

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The Lines

1:00

At Cincinnati -2.5 San Francisco

New England -9 At Buffalo

At New Orleans -4 Houston

At Philadelphia -5.5 NY Giants

At Cleveland -2.5 Miami

At Tennessee -7 Denver

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville

4:00

At San Diego -14.5 Kansas City

NY Jets -3.5 At Oakland

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

At Tampa Bay -1.5 Atlanta

Arizona -3 At Seattle

Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Hello everyone.  I’ve been tasked with doing a weekly write-up here on Starting Fantasy Lineup about my thoughts on the betting lines for each weeks games.  I’ll be giving you a few games I’ll be putting my own money on (literally) as well as a few games to be careful with and three games every week you should avoid like the plague.  I’ll also be tracking my success weekly with my games to keep an overall record by seasons end.  I’m available at @ErikTheLineMan on Twitter so if you have any questions about this or any weeks games, feel free to ask away and I’ll give you my thoughts.  I’ll also be submitting last minute line changes to the site so that you have an accurate look at what the point spreads are looking like just before kickoff.  Thanks, and I look forward to hopefully help you win some money!

I’M TAKING

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

It could be a long day for the Rams with the Ravens coming to town.  Although they came out flat on the road against Tennessee last week expect the veteran laden Ravens to show up in St. Louis with their hard hats ready to work.  I see the Ravens in line for a big day offensively, especially if Joe Flacco can find Lee Evans or Anquan Boldin open downfield as much as Hicks, Manningham and Hixon were in Week 2’s Monday Night game.  The Rams struggled against the relentless Giants pass rush and Bradford had trouble finding time to allow his receivers to get open against a horribly depleted Giants secondary.  He put up some decent yards but was pitiful inside the red zone excluding a BEAUTIFUL leaping catch by a much taller Denario Alexander, couldn’t get the ball across the goal line.  Week 3 does not bode much better for Bradford as Baltimore can bring the rush as well as any team in the league and Haloti Ngata and Co. do not allow much in the way of running room, especially in tight near the goal line.  Even if a banged up Steven Jackson returns he’s going to have a tough go of it.  If the line stays at Baltimore -6.5 or under by game time I’m banking on this game especially if it stays around -3.5 points.

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

Pittsburgh looked awful in a Week 1 blowout loss to the division rival Ravens, but bounced back in a big way in Week 2, albeit was to a Seahawks team that could easily go 2-14 in the worst division in football.  I think the Steelers game was a good tune-up opportunity for Big Ben and his boys to get things back on track and moving in the right direction.  They couldn’t have landed any better look at another win than playing a reeling Colts team in the dome in Indy.  The Steelers have 3 burners at WR and the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium makes for a perfect storm for Roethlisberger to chuck the ball all over the place.  I’m sure this is not the matchup the NFL Scheduling Department had in mind when Peyton Manning was to be the starter and it is going to be a painful game to watch Sunday night for Indy fans.   Indy’s playbook is a daunting read and asking anyone outside of Rainman to digest it in two or three weeks is downright impossible.  Kerry Collins has looked his age in both games so far and the fact he’s even playing should shed some light on the abilities of Curtis Painter and the little faith the Colts front office has in him.  I’m guessing a Steelers team fresh off a shutout is not what Kerry Collins was hoping for this weekend.   This game will be ugly and I think the Steelers win on the road and cover -10.5 in a laugher.

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

When was the last time Detroit was a road favorite?  My guess….probably sometime during the Clinton Administration when actually having talent was a requirement for television, but I digress.   Detroit looks be the real deal and on the brink of a breakout season.  With a healthy Matthew Stafford finally showing signs of why he was taken #1 overall in 2009 and the always dangerous Megatron, it appears this team could be a legit threat to the Pack for the division title and at the least a Wild Card team come January.  Keep in mind Stafford is the same quarterback that held the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie until Cam Newton’s week 1 performance and still holds the record for most TD’s in a game by a rookie QB with 5.  The kid can flat out play.  That’s to say nothing of the Ndamukong Suh led defense that is quickly becoming one of the most feared units in the NFC possibly behind only division rival Green Bay.  McNabb has lost more than a step as evidenced by the Vikes converting just one third down in the 2^nd half in the first two games (1 for 8).  Adrian Peterson can’t do it all, especially when McNabb can’t get out of his own way and teams stack 8 in the box.  Detroit covers -3.5.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Tony Romo suffered a cracked rib and punctured lung and still managed to come back and lead his team back to victory.  His status for Week 3 is clearly up in the air but I think John Kitna may be one of the best backup in the league as it means in regards to getting a win.  He looked good when called upon last week and had a decent season coming in after Romo broke his collarbone last year.  I think the Redskins are absolutely dreadful and I’m shocked they are sitting at 2-0.  Rex Grossman is a 5 INT game waiting to happen and he is notorious for throwing the ball up for grabs when under pressure which you know DeMarcus Ware & Co. are more than capable of bringing.  I’m just worried about the injuries to Romo, Miles Austin and the uncertain status of Dez Bryant.  I still think the Cowboys win this game but I’m just not sure they can cover -5.5 points with the injuries going on.  If the line drops a little lower I’d feel much better seeing them cover -3, but I still think you might be ok at -5.5 at home.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Philadelphia -5.5  NYG

Vick suffered a concussion last week against ATL and with the strict standards regarding concussions in the NFL the last few years Vick is going to be put through a barrage of tests to verify his safety before stepping out on the field Sunday. As of today’s writing (Wed 9/21) he had yet to take much less pass any of these tests.  The Eagles are “optimistic” he will start Sunday but if you take a team’s word at face value before the starting lineups have been submitted, you might need some crazy pills.  If Vick can’t go I see zero way Mike Kafka leads this team to a victory let alone cover -5.5 points.  If Vick does start the chances increase dramatically, even if he’s banged up.  But if you ask me, this paragraph contains WAY too many “ifs” and when it comes to betting that’s exactly the type of scenario you are looking to avoid. This game just has way too many question marks for me to feel safe about

At Cincinnati -2.5  San Francisco

Andy Dalton Vs. Alex Smith.  This game is going to be a QB lover’s wet dr….. Kidding of course.  This game is going to be a coin-toss plain and simple.  These two teams are just waaaay too up and (mostly) down to go anywhere near until further notice.  A recent history of ineptitude, Shaky QB’s and a lack of consistent playmakers on both sides of the ball for Cincy and San Francisco leave this game to be an absolute crapshoot.  Both teams have shown flashes this season, but almost always follow them up with head scratching plays.  I think SF is the better team, but there’s just no way to tell how this game ends and I want nothing to do with it.  I’m staying away and you should too.

At Cleveland -2.5  Miami

See above…..

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