Jets at Bills

I am lucky enough to be going to this game and there might not be one that has a bigger impact on the playoff picture in week 9. Buffalo currently sits atop the AFC East and would have the #2 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today. Currently, the Jets are on the outside looking in on the playoff race and would have a really steep hill to climb if they lost this game. On offense, the Jets have gotten away from the ground and pound offense that has gotten them to two straight AFC championship games.  Buffalo’s defense has been incredibly opportunistic and currently leads the NFL with 14 interceptions. In order for Sanchez to get the win for his team and get back on track towards their Super Bowl aspirations, it will take a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and the run game. The Bills offense has been very explosive and it all starts with Fred Jackson, who is having an MVP caliber season. The Jets have been weak against the run and Jackson will pick them apart if they turn the ball over or get off to a slow start and force Sanchez to go to the air and play from behind. Unfortunately for Jets fans, that is how I see this game going.  Jackson just always seems to make the big play when it matters the most and the defense is constantly turning the ball over in crucial spots to help them put the game away. Steve Johnson is a flex play despite being on Revis island this week.  Fitzpatrick will look to him when he is in man coverage and should be able to put up OK stats in this game.  He hasn’t been great in recent weeks and I do not think that he will be able to do too much, but I just don’t think he can be benched. You can start all your normal Bills and Jets in this game, but I would avoid Sanchez as usual and expect this game to be largely about the running game.

Giants at Patriots

The Giants have a two game lead on their division and have been getting some incredible performances from both Bradshaw and Manning.  Bradshaw unfortunately is going to miss around a month of time and I am not sure Brandon Jacobs will be able to provide the same balanced offensive attack.  Luckily for them you do not need balance to attack the Patriots secondary, which is ranked dead last in the NFL and is allowing 323 yards per game. Hakeem Nicks is questionable going into this game and his presence would mean the difference in this game being either competitive or a blow out. If he plays it could go either way but without him, I do not know if they will be able to keep pace with Tom Brady. Brandon Jacobs gets a bump in value with Bradshaw out and you should play every Giants wide receiver that you own in this game.  Tom Brady is of course a must-start despite a pretty average performance last week and there are still no Patriots Wide Receivers that I would go out of my way to start.  I am expecting a Patriot victory in this game but if Nicks plays it will be a pretty close and high scoring affair.

Ravens at Steelers

My favorite part of the AFC North is that these two teams meet up twice a year.  There is always some great football to be had when defenses of this caliber meet up and these have been the best two defenses for at least a decade or two. This particular game could get out of hand as the Steelers are surging and the Ravens struggling, but nothing forces you to play your best like a divisional rivalry game that decides who will sit in first place. I would stay away from any flex plays from either team and just focus on your typical starters: Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace and Ben Roethlisberger.  Anquan Boldin is typically a very good WR2 option, but I think of him more as a poor flex play this week against this Steelers team that just shut down Brady.  I like Pittsburgh to get a tough win, but the Ravens defense has not been what has struggled as of late so I don’t see it being by any more than 10 points.

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Love

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – After starting the season playing very mediocre football, Manning has really stepped it up in recent weeks and helped the Giants hold on to a 2 game lead on the NFC East despite injuries and mistakes. There might not be a team in the league that relies more on their QB to be successful and against a VERY soft Patriots secondary this week, the stats are almost sure to be there for Manning. The Pats have allowed an average of 19 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s which is third worst in the NFL.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – Andy Dalton and the Bengals have won 4 straight and look to continue their winning ways against the Titans this week. Each team is just half a game behind the division leader and will be fighting hard to not give up any more ground. Green has been phenomenal this season as there has been just one game where he has not either scored or been over 100 yards. He earned his spot in the top 10 of my WR rankings this week.

Fred Jackson, RB, NYJ – The Jets have struggled to stop the run this year.  They haven’t allowed a lot of big plays, but opposing teams have had little issue grinding out yards with an interior running game.  There is not a back in the NFL that is hotter than Jackson is and with Revis and company likely to limit opportunities down the field for Fitzmagic, Buffalo will need to rely heavily on Jackson.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – I talked about the soft match-up in the Eli section and would not be surprised to see Cruz as the top receiver for the Giants this week.  Cruz is just going to keep getting better with each passing week and his big-play ability is impossible to deny at this point.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Buffalo is averaging over 30 points per game on offense and has been better at defending against the run this year thanks in large part to Dareus. Rex Ryan and the Jets will NEED to run effectively against the Bills to keep their offense on the sideline. I am confident that Greene will put up some good numbers off the heels of his first 100 yard game since week 7 of his rookie season (2009).

Carson Palmer, QB, OAK – Let’s keep my “Love” of Palmer in perspective. You are not starting him in a standard league unless you are really hurting because of Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford being on bye week.  He isn’t likely to have a huge game here since he is still not in the best of shape and getting acclimated to his new team and offensive scheme. But if you are in a 2 QB league then you can do a LOT worse this week.  Palmer might have McFadden back, which would take a lot of pressure off him and the Broncos are the worst in the NFL at fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Hate

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – This isn’t all because of Revis Island.  Fitzpatrick WILL look to Johnson when he is in man-coverage with Revis and I could see another game very similar to his past two weeks.  The problem is, he hasn’t been producing lately. He hasn’t hit double digit fantasy points in any of his past 4 games.

Joe Flacco, QB, PIT – The Ravens have really been VERY sloppy recently and the Steelers defense seems to have things turned around. Do you trust Flacco against the team that just shut down Tom Brady from start to finish? I don’t. Not when he was pretty bad against the Cardinals last week.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – With Tashard Choice joining the Redskins this week off of waivers, I am staying FAR away from Torain.  Helu is the guy I would play if I had to, but I would do anything you can to just leave all your Redskins on the bench. Apart from Fred Davis.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – I am pretty well sold on Brown at this point.  He is a play maker and a good deep threat. My issue with him is only for this week against the Ravens.  I think Ben will have a very tough time staying upright in this game and I don’t see Brown able to get too much done. He remains a very viable flex play in my rankings though as he has been targeted more than Steve Johnson, AJ Green, Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson this season.

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Studs

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – It isn’t often that Andy Reid lets a back see 30 carries, but I am not sure he has ever had one as good as McCoy. I thought that he was mostly just an edge rusher and receiving threat and that is what Reid likes from a RB.  He has proved me wrong this season and continues to impress after 185 yards and 2 TDs on the ground this week.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith now has five 100 yard receiving performances this season.  He is a top 10 receiver with Cam Newton at QB and has just been a draft day steal for all of his fantasy owners.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL – Jackson is too good to have been on your bench this week, even though we all expected a rout by New Orleans and limited carries because of a need to pass the ball.  Well that didn’t happen as the Rams upset the Saints in a big way on Sunday and Jackson was the key to this win.

Bills, D/ST, BUF – The one knock on this opportunistic defensive unit has been pressure on the QB.  Going into this week, they had the lowest sack total in the NFL with 4.  They had NINE sacks this week against Washington and forced 2 interceptions as they shut out the Redskins. Beck had a rough day and this was the first time in history that a Mike Shanahan team has been shut out. Impressive game by the Bills after coming off the bye week, which has spelled disaster for most teams this season.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – After posting 134 yards on 31 carries and scoring a TD this week, Gore has 4 straight games of over 125 yards AND a TD. Impressive after such a lack-luster start. The 49ers offense is forcing the ball down the throat of opposing defenses and I don’t see their strategy changing over the rest of this season. You HAVE to keep Gore in your lineup.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – Nate had two scores in this game and it was by far his best game since Kenny Britt was hurt and he reached the top of the depth chart at wide receiver. I credit this to Javon Ringer bringing a balance to the Titan offense as he split carries evenly with Chris Johnson.

Duds

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Terrible call by me on Law Firm this week. In my defense, NO ONE saw Kevin Faulk’s return as a threat to Law Firm’s workload. Neither Ridley or Woodhead even saw a touch in this game and Faulk had over twice the touches that Green-Ellis did. Fantasy owners hate you too Coach Belichick.

Philip Rivers, QB, SD – The only reason that Rivers hasn’t been the biggest bust of the 2011 season is because Chris Johnson was a first round pick.  They have both been equally as bad.  Rivers has been out scored by Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Ouch.  No excuse this week as all his receiving weapons are finally healthy.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Admittedly the entire Cowboys offense was bad this week, but we have come to expect Austin to be a top 10 receiver and in the past two weeks he has been far from.  I was surprised to see Austin in the slot so much this week, with Robinson playing on the outside in three receiver sets. This was probably an effort to get a more favorable matchup for Austin and I expect Dallas to make a point to get Austin back involved in a big way against Seattle this week.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – The Skins are just falling apart and with Torain being injury prone, I expect Helu to take over the lion’s share of the carries VERY soon.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – The Steelers provided a very nice road map for how to shut down Brady and the Pats offense.  Play man-to-man and load up 8 or 9 people around the line of scrimmage.  The Pats don’t have an elite receiver that can go out there and beat man-coverage on a regular basis.  I am not worried about any Patriots down the road though.  Not many teams have the personnel on defense to execute this strategy like Pittsburgh does.

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Pickups

Javon Ringer, RB, TEN – Chris Johnson is clearly the bust of the 2011 season and the Titans seem to have caught on as well.  Ringer split carries evenly with CJ.5k as each back had 14.  Ringer was almost twice as productive on the ground and also out performed Johnson in the receiving game as well.  At this point I might rather own Ringer, but I truly believe that if you drafted Johnson you need to keep him and go down with the ship.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – I may have called the Decker vs. Thomas decision a little early. I am not going to make a sweeping declaration yet about who is the better play and the rankings of them in the future will be based off match up and how I think opposing defenses will treat each receiver. For now though, you should hope to use a different option even in your flex as Tebow really has not played very well over the two games he has started.

Reggie Bush, RB, MIA – This is very likely as good as it gets for Reggie this season but if you can put up over a hundred yards on fewer than 20 carries, you have my attention.  Bush is an underrated as an interior rusher but the issue is that Daniel Thomas is still better at it.  Bush needs to be owned after this performance and should make a decent flex play in the weeks that Thomas can not start.

Ben Obomanu, WR, SEA – Seattle has had their troubles and they certainly did continue in this game. One thing that can be said is that they were able to stretch the field vertically in the passing game. Obomanu and Rice were over 100 yards and Baldwin was over 70 as well.  The Seahawks are going to keep falling behind and the will have to pass. If Obamanu can keep getting open deep he will put up some decent numbers, even if it is in junk-time.

Christian Ponder, QB, MIN – Ponder did more than win this game, he played very well.  When you have a back like Adrian Peterson all you really need to do is manage the game and minimize mistakes. A missed field goal that would tie the game in the closing seconds does help but if your in a deep league or a 2 QB league, I think Ponder should be good for double digit fantasy points on a weekly basis.

Dump List

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – When Carolina gets to the goal line, they use Cam Newton or Jonathan Stewart. Williams got a big contract extension and really hasn’t been proving that he was worth it. He will need to start breaking off some big TD runs to be of much value to fantasy owners.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, NE – Still owned in over 50% of leagues. Really people?

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Torain and the Redskins have had three pretty good match ups in a row and in these three weeks, Torain has totaled three fantasy points.  I will be ranking Helu highest of the three, but have no confidence in ANY Redskin apart from Fred Davis.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – He is still owned in about 25% of leagues and this is too much. With Fred Jackson playing out of his mind, there is no reason to expect Spiller to get on the field and be much of a factor.

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