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Love

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – It is almost inevitable that the running back that has to face the Bills each week will be on this list.  It didn’t pay off for MJD owners, but you can’t ignore the numbers. The Bills give up over 20 points a game to opposing RBs and are allowing an AVERAGE of 182 rushing yards per game.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – The 9ers, under Mike Singletary, are a run-first team and despite their struggles this is not going to change.  With their new offensive coordinator, they are striving for more balance but they are still running to set up the pass… not the other way around.  With the Panthers giving up 134 yards per game to the run, Gore is sure to at least tally a hundred yards.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – The Jaguars pass defense is just about as bad as the Bills run defense. The corner backs of the Jaguars have not been able to stop opposing WRs all season and after his best game in years, you may as well use him in the best match-up possible.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Redskins have the worst overall defense in the NFL.  They allow over 100 yards per game rushing and just under 300 yards passing.  This suits Forte and the Bears offense perfectly, The Skins have not been able to generate much of a pass rush and with Forte being an integral part of the passing game and running game… as scary as this sounds Forte could have his best game of the season this week. (but, given he has two 30 point games so far this season I am not making that prediction… just saying it is possible)

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – As the injuries stack up for the struggling Chargers offense, the likelihood that they lean on Mathews over the next couple weeks increases.  The Patriots defense has been terrible this season and if Gates and Floyd are out, expect a lot of carries for Mathews.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – The Buccaneers defense has been solid against the pass, but has struggled with the run.  This will be a game of two franchises struggling to return to playoff form and the Buccaneers have been far more consistent and successful thus far.  After seeing the Rams completely collapse to the Lions two weeks ago I am expecting big games from both Freeman and Mike Williams this week.  What has really turned me into a Freeman believer is his ability to close out games in the 4th quarter.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – Max Hall is definitely not the reason that Fitz is on this list, but the Seahawks pass defense is.  Seattle allows 290 yards per game through the air and while that wont happen, I would say it is likely that the best receiver in football is able to beat a bad defense deep at least once.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – I understand your frustration about him having yet to score a receiving TD, but I am seeing flashbacks of Anquan Boldin scoring three times in one game against this secondary.  Colston may not have reached double digit points yet this year, but this is the week that changes.

Todd Heap, TE, BAL – Believe it or not there are two things that the Bills suck at.  First is defending the run… but after that its defending opposing Tight Ends.  They are the only team to give up 5 TDs to the TE position and Heap will match up well against the Bills linebackers and secondary.

49ers, D/ST, SF – The Panthers offense has been inept all season.  DeAngelo Williams has been their only bright spot and with zero consistency at the QB position the 9ers defense should have little trouble containing them.  So far this season the Panthers offense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing defenses (averaging 13 per game).

Hate

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – He ran very well in his first game after the Marshawn Lynch trade, but going up against the Ravens is not where you want to start someone on this struggling Bills offense.  I expect a very lopsided game this week, even with the Bills having an extra week to prepare.

Ricky Williams, RB, MIA – Apply this to Ronnie Brown too.  The only person on the Dolphins worth starting against the Steelers is Brandon Marshall.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – The Titans defense has been quietly great this season and especially against the run.  The Eagles also have some injury concerns on the offensive line so given the pass rush of the Titans I think the Eagles lose the game before their bye week.  With a bad match up and being on an almost pass-only offense, McCoy’s only chance at a big day will come through the air.  With his high level of play so far this season you still need to start him, but lower expectations.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – With all the talk about the Eagles being about the Quarterback position, it has largely gone unnoticed how effective their pass defense has been.  The Eagles have only allowed an average of 15 fantasy points per week to all WRs on the opposing offenses.  Since we can’t assume that Britt catches every pass in this game, its is extremely unlikely he is able to have a good week.

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF – I think he will be able to maintain value for fantasy owners, but this is not the best week to use him.  The Panthers are 5th in the NFL in pass defense and it is largely due to the ease in which people are able to run on them.  Knowing this makes it all the more likely that Frank Gore has a huge game and Crabtree sees his lowest targets in 3 weeks.

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Studs

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI - With DeSean Jackson about to miss at least one game Maclin will be the top receiver on the field.  Given that he is going against the Titans, I don’t see raising his value that much.  Last week was a huge game from his fantasy owners and Maclin is fast developing into one of the better second WRs in fantasy football.  You can count on him down the stretch, regardless of which QB is playing.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was big on this guy going into the year and he has been a HUGE disappointment for myself and any fantasy owners still clinging to him.  One good game is not enough to count on him, but he has an even better match-up against the Jaguars next week.  Feel comfortable starting him for at least one more week this season.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – He got banged up a bit at the end of this game and he won’t be better than a bye-week or injury plug-in in most weeks… However, apparently he is trust-worthy if there is a squishy match-up on the horizon. Don’t take a chance on him next week.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - You were worried about his injury weren’t you? Me too!  He is thankfully one of the guys you start when he is active… so let’s hope you stuck to that!  If not, let this be the last “start your studs” lesson you have to endure.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – I saw a question on Twitter on Sunday… “Andre Johnson or Brandon Lloyd?” I almost died inside.  Huge game for fantasy owners and Texans fans alike this week from Johnson and if I were to draft a new team today he would still be my number 1 receiver.

Greg Jennings, WR, GB - It came almost completely from one big play, but that is what Jennings does.  He will need to be started next week because the absence of Finley will lead to more looks deep to Jennings.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – Owners of Schaub have been getting restless.  They drafted one of the elite seven QBs and have not gotten that in return. Finally a strong outing from Schaub and he will hopefully stay closer to the stats he has been able to put up the past two seasons.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – He didn’t find the end zone, but over 140 yards rushing is impressive.  I had him as my number 3 overall RB in the pre-season and after watching him remain productive through the struggles of his team, I would keep his value the same today.

Duds

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – Just when it looked like we could trust him… He had a great match-up and was still not able to get fantasy owners a single point.  Manning used Steve Smith as his favorite weapon on Sunday, but the running game was effective and passing was not a high priority.  I still like Nicks as the best fantasy receiver in New York, but the love for him has gotten a bit out of hand and should be scaled back.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL - The Cowboys are in trouble, they have talent and no leaders in the locker room.  Austin is consistently productive and had it not been for a costly penalty he would be on the other list!

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN – 0 receptions, 0 targets.  That is not how I saw Randy Moss impacting Shiancoe’s role in this offense.  In my defense, I don’t think that is why he had no targets!  The Vikings had issues protecting Favre and relied on the TE position as a blocker rather than a receiver.  TDs will go down from last season, but this guy could have some big passing plays come his way this season.

Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ – It looked like Holmes was out of sync with the offense this week, he had an opening on a reverse and couldn’t find it among other things. He will develop into a better deep threat with each week and will eventually kill the value of Braylon Edwards.

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Pickups

Jason Avant, WR, PHI - With both Eagles quarterbacks playing at such a high-level and DeSean Jackson taking a huge hit and suffering a severe concussion Maclin and Avant will each be asked to run deep routes more often.  Avant stands to see the biggest increase in production with all the extra time he will spend on the field in that pass-happy offense.

Fred Davis , TE, WAS – Cooley suffered a concussion last week and after seeing how effective Davis was in his place last season, you can be relatively confident he will be at least a redzone target of Donovan McNabb’s for as long as Cooley sits.  It is worth noting that Cooley had 3 concussions in college and could miss considerable time given this history.

Deion Branch, WR, NE – There is a lot of love for Branch in the Patriots locker room and front office.  In his return to the team he had a great game for any desperate fantasy owners that needed to dig this deep for a flex play.  For now he will be the 2nd best fantasy receiver in New England, but don’t drop Brandon Tate just yet.

Patrick Crayton, WR, SD – I don’t know how it would work out well for the Chargers if they were missing both Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates… but Rivers is going to find someone open in the passing game and with the experience that Crayton brings to the table, he would be the only one worth the risk to fantasy owners.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Eddie Royal was the most consistently targeted receiver on the Broncos and with his injury, someone will need to pick up the slack.  Thomas was loved by the Broncos organization in the pre-season and due to injury he has missed a lot of time.  With Royal potentially missing time due to his groin injury, Thomas would be the likely candidate to come on in 3 WR sets.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - He was banged up again after a monster first half, over 100 yards and a score.  He also isn’t available in that many leagues but he shouldn’t be in available in any so go make sure.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI - You aren’t starting him, but all pre season I thought that Devin was the best red zone threat that Jay Cutler had at his disposal.  There was chemistry between them at the end of last year, but for whatever reason he saw almost no playing time on offense in the first quarter of the season.  He is a large receiver that is very hard to cover in the red zone so he is worth a roster spot if your looking for depth and upside.

Dump List

Willis McGahee, RB, BAL – You have to be on the field to have value to fantasy owners and after Rice has seen so many more goal line looks in the last 2 weeks I would feel comfortable dropping Willis for someone with more upside and carries. WARNING: Trade deadline is Tuesday night at midnight, so don’t make a move until you’re sure he hasn’t been traded! (right before Waivers typically get processed… how convenient)

James Jones, WR, GB – With all the injuries for the Packers, Jones has yet to step up and become a play maker on offense. Until injury befalls either Jennings or Driver… there is no chance you would risk starting this guy so why keep him?

Mike Hart, RB, IND – Even with Addai leaving the game early Hart was not able to be too productive.  It might take a while until the Colts backfield is at 100% but Hart isn’t going to get lead back carries ever.  There is no need to waste a roster spot on this guy.

Kevin Walter, WR, HOU – Walter is a truly unique receiver in the NFL.  There has never been one that is used exclusively for blocking in the past, but apart from one HUGE game he has done squat.  Make sure you don’t go down with the ship.

Sam Bradford, QB, STL – I am only speaking to people in standard 10 team leagues that only start 1 QB.  This guy is not worth the risk.  They just beat the Chargers at home and Bradford got just 11 points, there will be uglier games than this so don’t take the risk.

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Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Active
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Active
Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Active
Legedu Naanee, WR, SD – Inactive
Mike Williams, WR, TB – Active

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1. Steelers                                       vs. CLE
2. Jets                                               @ DEN
3. Giants                                           vs. DET
4. Bears                                             vs. SEA
5. Chargers                                      @ STL
6. Packers                                        vs. MIA
7. Titans                                            @ JAC
8. Ravens                                         @ NE
9. Eagles                                           vs. ATL
10. 49ers                                             vs. OAK
11. Vikings                                          vs. DAL
12. Saints                                            @ TB
13. Colts                                              @ WAS
14. Cowboys                                     @ MIN
15. Dolphins                                      @ GB
16. Falcons                                         @ PHI
17. Colts                                              @ WAS
18. Broncos                                        vs. NYJ
19. Chiefs                                           @ HOU
20. Texans                                          vs. KC
21. Seahawks                                    @ CHI
22. Raiders                                         @ SF
23. Buccaneers                                 vs. NO
24. Redskins                                      vs. IND
25. Lions                                              @ NYG

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1. Nate Kaeding                             @ STL
2. Rob Bironas                                @ JAC
3. David Akers                               vs. ATL
4. Stephen Gostkowski              vs. BAL
5. Mason Crosby                           vs. MIA
6. Matt Bryant                                @ PHI
7. Matt Prater                                vs. NYJ
8. Ryan Longwell                           vs. DAL
9. Robbie Gould                            vs. SEA
10. Garrett Hartley                         @ TB
11. Neil Rackers                               vs. KC
12. Sebastian Janikowski              @ SF
13. Nick Folk                                      @ DEN
14. Jason Hanson                            @ NYG
15. Jeff Reed                                     vs. CLE
16. Josh Scobee                               vs. TEN
17. Adam Vinatieri                          @ WAS
18. Joe Nedney                                 vs. OAK
19. Ryan Succop                               @ HOU
20. Graham Gano                            vs. IND

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1. Antonio Gates                           @ STL
2. Dallas Clark                                 @ WAS
3. Vernon Davis                             vs. OAK
4. Zach Miller                                  @ SF
5. Dustin Keller                              @ DEN
6. Jason Witten                              @ MIN
7. Chris Cooley                               vs. IND
8. Brent Celek                                 vs. ATL
9. Tony Moeaki                              @ HOU
10. Visanthe Shiancoe                   vs. DAL
11. Kellen Winslow                         vs. NO
12. Tony Gonzalez                          @ PHI
13. Aaron Hernandez                    vs. BAL
14. Marcedes Lewis                       vs. TEN
15. Heath Miller                               vs. CLE
16. Greg Olsen                                 vs. SEA
17. John Carlson                              @ CHI
18. Jeremy Shockey                       @ TB
19. Brandon Pettigrew                  @ NYG
20. Todd Heap                                  @ NE
21. Kevin Boss                                  vs. DET
22. Benjamin Watson                    @ PIT
23. Owen Daniels                            vs. KC
24. Anthony Fasano                       @ GB
25. Andrew Quarless                     vs. MIA

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