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Studs

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – This week’s highest scoring player is also the NFL record holder for rushing touch downs by a quarterback. Pretty impressive with 4 games left to play from a rookie that frankly many people, myself included, expected to be a bust. I expected this big game to come last week against the Colts but a Josh Freeman-less Buccaneers team is not a whole lot better.  Newton racked up 204 yards passing, 54 yards rushing and he caught a 27 yard pass too, because he needed to do more to justify his super man end zone celebration.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Greene had only two TDs on the season before Sunday. He had three in this week’s game on the road at Washington.  He rushed 22 times for 88 yards and threw in 2 more fantasy points worth of receiving yards. He was most effective when it mattered, late in the game with the lead and should have earned enough trust to reliably see 20 touches the rest of the way.  Especially considering LT is having a trouble staying healthy.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – With Adrian Peterson on the sidelines in street clothes, the Vikings have really looked to Harvin in order to provide a spark.  That spark immediately caught fire as Harvin’s stats and fantasy value have never been better.  He averaged just under 4 yards per rush and had 8 grabs for 159 yards and 2 scores.  My gut says that Peterson misses one more game and Harvin would be considered a top 10 option if this is true.  Coach Frazier was encouraging about Peterson’s progress on Monday and said that he is “very close” to returning.  I for one see no reason for them to rush their franchise back into action too soon with the season already out of control and an offense that is still quite productive.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Rice absolutely tore the Cleveland Browns to shreds this week.  It was almost hard to watch unless you happen to own Rice, then it was like Christmas came early. 29 carries for 204 yards and a score in the best game of his young career. Indianapolis, San Diego and Cleveland again are on the horizon for the fantasy playoffs and Rice is sure to be a big part of his owners’ playoff run.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – Since Curtis Painter was pretty terrible, the Colts looked to Dan Orlovsky and Pierre Garcon remained the favorite target.  He was targeted twice as much as Reggie Wayne was and hauled in 9 catches for 150 yards and two TDs.  Don’t take this for more that it was, one good game from an inconsistent receiver against the worst secondary in the NFL. With Baltimore next week I will rank Garcon above Wayne, but neither of them are likely to crack the top 40.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – Lynch has been on fire lately and incredibly consistent.  Before week 9 Lynch had yet to have a 100 yard game on the season or back-to-back 100 yard games in his entire career.  In four of the last five weeks he crossed the century mark and has done it back-to-back twice. I am confident he will do well next week against the Rams, who are ranked 32nd on the NFL, but after that he plays against Chicago (8th in the league vs. the run) and then San Francisco (1st).  The bubble will burst soon but not next week.

Duds

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – Dallas made an effort to get Felix Jones more involved this week against Arizona and it back fired big time.  They lost in overtime to what should have been an easy opponent for them and were forced to turn back to Murray down the stretch.  The momentum was never in Dallas’ favor and Murray only had 12 rushes.  As a Murray owner, I hope Dallas learned their lesson and continues to use him as a feature back. He provided a consistent presence in the running game that this offense has not had in a long time and it was working.  I think you have to start him this week in the playoffs against the Giants.  This is going to be a crucial game for Dallas and New York has been vulnerable to the run, allowing 127 yards per game on the season.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Just three points is really hard to swallow considering how well the Panthers offense played and how big a game Cam Newton had.  Because the offense is doing just fine I am not concerned about Smtih going into the playoffs.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – We need to take notice of how ineffective the run was against the Texans.  They played well and earned a tough win against Atlanta this week with TJ Yates at QB.  Houston is also looking to add Jeff Garcia to the roster and he might just wind up the starter, which I think would be an upgrade once he learns the offensive playbook.  This is two rough games for Turner in a row but going against Carolina this week should get things moving in the right direction.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – The Buccaneers missed Josh Freeman this week but they missed a quality running game more.  Blount had just 1.7 yards per carry on only 11 carries and was a huge disappointment for his fantasy owners in what should have been an easy match up. Jacksonville is next week and they have a very quality rush defense so I would consider Blount a flex play at best.

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The fantasy playoffs are about to begin and with some fairly big injuries occurring this week, there is a significant chance to add some good depth to your roster as well as pick up some key handcuffs that could set you ahead of your opponents and give you an edge when the whole season is on the line.

Pickups

Marion Barber, RB, CHI – With Forte potentially out for 2-4 weeks, Barber is bound to be this week’s hottest pick up.  The schedule is really rough for the Bears over the next couple of weeks.  With Denver and Seattle in the next couple weeks, each having a solid rush defense, I think that Barber will be mediocre at best without a quality QB to stretch the field vertically. I wouldn’t bend over backwards to get him unless your now missing Forte going into the playoffs.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Thomas had a big game this week but I am not sure you should trust him as a starter yet.  Decker is still the guy I like the most to catch one of the few deep balls from Tebow and lets face it… there aren’t many of those to go around.  I  would scoop up Thomas anyways though.  You don’t want an opponent beating you off a goofy, freak performance.

Brad Smith, WR, BUF – Buffalo’s offense isn’t what it was over the first 6 weeks of the season and it isn’t going to turn back into that team either.  They have had a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball and no Fred Jackson obviously hurts the most.  With that said, they are finally playing competitive football and I think you can expect some decent production.  Buffalo goes against San Diego next week, who teams have definitely been able to move the ball against and Smith stepped up at WR with 7 grabs on 10 targets for 72 yards.  He could make a decent flex-play if you’re desperate but either way he is a quality player to have on your bench.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Detroit is going to have to turn the ship around quickly to make a playoff push this season.  Jahvid Best’s absence has made a big difference and Smith was able to bring back that dimension of the offense when he is on the field.  Injured or not, if he is active next week they will use him for as long as they can.  Smith was by far the Lions’ best offensive weapon in the first half and they simply can’t afford not to use him if he puts on his helmet next week.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, MIN – He didn’t overwhelm us with numbers this week (6 catches for 90 yards) but I was impressed with his performance none-the-less.  Aromashodu saw 15 targets this week and it feels as though there is a decent connection between him and Ponder.  Percy Harvin is going to draw a lot more attention after another monster game and with the Lions for opponents next week, you can do worse in a deep league.  Detroit had a lot of trouble getting to Brees last night and if Ponder has time, Aromashodu just might have a big game.

Dump List

Jackie Battle, RB, KC – Battle’s touches and production have been down over the past few weeks and since Thomas “old man river” Jones saw more carries and Dexter McCluster was more productive, you can let Battle go for a crack at Barber if you need to.  I would still hold him as the best Chiefs running back but with the playoffs starting next week, hopefully you aren’t desperate enough to need him!

Early Doucet, WR, ARI – Looking at the stat line, you might think that Doucet didn’t touch the ball on Sunday against the Cowboys.  That is simply not true.  He caught two passes for zero yards.  Doucet has has some OK games this season but he hasn’t had double-digit fantasy points since week 1 and there are likely some guys out there with more upside. Go get Brad Smith or even Golden Tate.

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - The Saints are as healthy as ever and the backfield is very crowded.  Thomas is essentially an after-thought for Sean Peyton and should be for fantasy owners too.  Little reason to have him on your team unless there are no better options or Ingram goes down to injury.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT – He is still owned in a third of leagues, believe it or not.  I don’t think I need to justify his spot on this list.

DJ Ware, RB, NYG – Bradshaw was back and saw some use on Sunday so I expect Ware is done seeing significant work.  If it wasn’t for converting on a 2 point conversion, he would have posted a goose-egg for fantasy owners. He is simply just a handcuff at best and even then, he will be sharing carries.

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Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Active

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Inactive

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – Active

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – Active

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Active

Sebastian Janikowski, K, OAK – Active

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Question 1: Asked by @E_RICHT5F3LD

Who do u think I should start at RB out of… Foster, MJD, Murray and Sproles? I need 3 of 4.

Answer

I am sitting Sproles here if I was you. Keep your expectations low on Foster this week but Sproles is the only guy that I wouldn’t call a “stud”.  These should be your three regardless of match-up.  New Orleans is pass-first and Sproles’ touches are limited. He has been a great weapon for them and I am sure they will continue to use him a fair amount but the other options are all feature backs in their offense.

Question 2: Asked by @bdavis712 and Eric via email.

Should I start Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson or Andre Johnson?

Answer

This is a really, really difficult decision you have this week.  I have Cruz 10th and Nelson 11th in my rankings and you are going to have to trust your gut.  The reason why I would go with Cruz is simple, the stats.  Green Bay is currently ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense and this is due in large part to what fantasy owners call “junk-time”.  Basically, after Green Bay has the game wrapped up and out of reach, the opponent just keeps throwing the ball on every play and the Packers sit in prevent defense and essentially allow a lot of yardage.  The secondary is definitely weaker than it has been in years past but not quite as bad as 31st. The nice thing is, junk-time counts just as much as anything else and even if Cruz has no catches going into the 4th quarter, there is no way he finishes the game that way.  Green Bay on the other hand will likely have the game locked-up and be running out the clock by the end of the game.  This limits Nelson’s chances and makes Cruz a slightly better play in my opinion.

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Bengals at Steelers

The Bengals have been one of my favorite teams to watch thus far this season.  They have one of the most prolific rookie QB to rookie WR combinations ever as well as a solid running game to compliment one of the best and most complete defenses in the NFL. Despite being in the middle of 4 games against their division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, if the season ended today, the Bengals would be in the playoffs. They will need a big win this week against the Steelers to keep the Jets and Tim Tebow in the rear-view mirror and they certainly have a good shot at it. The status of Troy Polamalu could easily tell the tale of how this game will go.  AJ Green will be able to blow the top off of the coverage a few times without Troy and his hair out there on Sunday and this season teams have been able to run against the Steelers with limited success. Pittsburgh on the other hand had issues moving the ball on offense against the Chiefs last week and this has me far from confident that they can find a way to win this game.  I am going to follow my gut and take the underdog Bengals to win a very close game.  Cedric Benson falls JUST outside my top 20 (to 21st) in my running back rankings, which makes him a great flex option or passable RB2. I am continuing to consider AJ Green matchup-proof still and kept him inside my top 20 this week at wide receiver. Rashard Mendenhall has proven to be nothing more than an RB2 this season and I ranked him on the low-end of my top 20 against the 5th best rush defense in the NFL. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown were unaffected by the match up when doing my rankings so you can start them confidently in whatever role you have been using them in.  Big Ben doesn’t have a lot of upside and he remains a low-end starting QB this week.

Packers at Giants

The Giants are in a dog fight over the NFC East title and this game is huge for them.  Unfortunately this is also one of the two games remaining where the Packers can reasonably be beaten.  I am obviously going to put my money on Green Bay but if they win this one, I only see the Lions in week 17 as the only team capable of beating them. I expect Green Bay to play for the undefeated season as they remain the best and among the least injured teams in the league. The Giants on the other hand have had a variety of injuries but have persevered through them and sit one game behind Dallas for the division lead. Neither team has a defense that scares me at all and surprisingly, the Packers are the 31st ranked pass defense in the league.  This is helped by the fact that they always have a sizable lead late and teams are throwing in desperation to try and play catch-up.  I think Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can be started with supreme confidence in this game as junk-time should be very good to them at least. Brandon Jacobs should be rendered irrelevant by the time the 4th quarter comes around and the duo of Starks and Grant for Green Bay has not been worth much attention for fantasy owners, so stay away.

Lions at Saints

The Lions have an opportunity to jump ahead of Chicago in the wild card race now that Caleb Hanie is at the helm for the Bears.  It won’t be easy this week against the Saints, who have really hit their stride in recent weeks.  Last Monday, the Saints dismantled the Giants and I honestly expect another convincing win for Brees. Detroit seems to have issues pushing the ball down field when they don’t have balance with the running game.  Teams have been able to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and contain him in order to try and force someone else to make the big play.  This formula has worked better for some teams than others but I think it works very well for the Saints this week, who are bound to score plenty of points on offense.  Neither defense scares me from a fantasy-owners stand point, so you can go ahead and start your QBs and WRs with confidence.   Don’t bother with any of the running backs unless you are really desperate. James Jones is the most questionable receiver in this game and I think you have to play him if your light on options and are looking for a high-upside player that can beat a really high scoring opponent.

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Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Teams have been beating up on the Rams all season with a punishing rushing game. Gore has yet to play against them yet this year but I have little doubt that he is able to end his slump this week.  The Rams are allowing an average of 159 yards per game to opposing running backs and while Kendall Hunter is bound to see a fair few carries as well, Gore is just about a lock for 100 yards.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – The Buccaneers are not as well-rounded as they were last year and Freeman has certainly been a part of the problem.  Fortunately, the Panthers defense fixes a lot of issues.  You should start all your typical Buccaneers in this game because Carolina can neither stop the run or the pass. If you need convincing, take a look at the stats the Colts had on offense last week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – All the attention is on Cruz lately and Nicks has been very underwhelming this season but I think Nicks is the one due for a huge game. Green Bay is going to win, I am pretty damned sure of it but the Packers have the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and I still trust Nicks more than Cruz.  He is a superior red zone target and when it counts, Eli will look his way.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Law Firm has been a very inconsistent player this season and he isn’t totally to blame.  Three backs other than Green-Ellis saw at least 4 carries in the game last week for the Patriots and while Law Firm was by and far the leader with 14, it is incredibly frustrating to see as a Law Firm owner. Don’t sweat it this week against the Colts who can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – The Texans are going to have to dig deep to pull off a win against Atlanta this week.  I am not crazy about Johnson this week but Atlanta has a lights-out run defense and eventually, TJ Yates or not, the Texans will have to go to the air.  The only thing that will keep Johnson from producing is opportunity so if he can get a few targets, he will do something with them. I think AJ is a solid WR2 this week.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – The Bills were actually competitive again and Fitz played really well against that Jets D. I’m not sold yet.  The injury report for Buffalo is a mile long and I don’t see them as a high-powered offense without Fred Jackson in the lineup. Make Fitzpatrick do it one more time before you take a gamble and start him with your season on the line.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Hanie played bad on Sunday and while I expect him to improve, I have no reason to expect Knox to put up near the same numbers.  Watching the game last week showed that Knox was on fire and clearly the Bears’ best playmaker but after such a disappointing season I want to see him do it a couple of times before I start to buy in to it. Leave him on the bench.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – The Texans offense essentially runs through Foster and Tate now but the Falcons have absolutely been shutting down opposing running backs.  You have to start Foster regardless this week but I think he is going to be hard pressed to manage over a hundred yards. Lower expectations and hope for the best this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings really made an effort to get the ball in the hands of Harvin with Peterson sidelined.  Unfortunately the Broncos defense has been playing great in recent weeks and Harvin is not very likely to have a repeat performance.  His speed and skill in the open field mean that you should be starting him in your flex spot anyways but I don’t expect a lot of open space in this game.

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