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Patriots at Broncos

Don’t worry, I am not going to go on an on about how awesome Tebow is.  This is however the ultimate test of his abilities as a passer as well as the ultimate test for the Denver defense.  I watched my Bills win a string of close, come from behind games and I can assure you that the bubble has to burst some time. The Patriots have proven to be a beatable team this season because their secondary is the worst in the league and people have been able to keep pace with their offense.  It is really going to take a hell of a performance from the Bronco defense to contain both Welker and Gronkowski throughout the game and I think we would be foolish to expect the Broncos to be able to put up over 30 points.  Either way I think Tebow is in for one of his best statistical performances of the season and he is a great start for fantasy owners this week.  As for your Patriot players, production on the overall might be a little below the normal but you shouldn’t be too scared to play your guys anyways where you normally would.  Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are both viable flex plays this week, as for the first time there should be enough targets to go around.  I’m not about to predict a Tebow victory here but I do think it will be a relatively close game. I would guess in the area of 35 to 28.

Steelers at 49ers

The 49ers are on a bit of a slump at the moment after a rough loss to the Cardinals last week. They have a tough test this week to try and put this behind them with Pittsburgh coming to town.  In all honesty, I don’t see San Fran pulling this one off because they will need to get the job done in the running game and Pittsburgh has been much improved on defense in the second half of the season.  San Francisco should continue to shut down the running game but Pittsburgh is no longer a run-first team and Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are going to be able to make a few big plays throughout the course of this game. Do everything in your power to leave Rashard Mendenhall on your bench and lower expectations from Frank Gore too although you likely have to play him regardless this week. Ben Roethlisberger is also worth a start but he is not at all likely to have a really big game against such a solid defense. I think Pittsburgh will likely win this by 2 scores unless Gore can break through the Steel Curtain and the 49ers defense holds the Steelers offense to under 20 points.

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Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Teams have been beating up on the Rams all season with a punishing rushing game. Gore has yet to play against them yet this year but I have little doubt that he is able to end his slump this week.  The Rams are allowing an average of 159 yards per game to opposing running backs and while Kendall Hunter is bound to see a fair few carries as well, Gore is just about a lock for 100 yards.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – The Buccaneers are not as well-rounded as they were last year and Freeman has certainly been a part of the problem.  Fortunately, the Panthers defense fixes a lot of issues.  You should start all your typical Buccaneers in this game because Carolina can neither stop the run or the pass. If you need convincing, take a look at the stats the Colts had on offense last week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – All the attention is on Cruz lately and Nicks has been very underwhelming this season but I think Nicks is the one due for a huge game. Green Bay is going to win, I am pretty damned sure of it but the Packers have the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and I still trust Nicks more than Cruz.  He is a superior red zone target and when it counts, Eli will look his way.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Law Firm has been a very inconsistent player this season and he isn’t totally to blame.  Three backs other than Green-Ellis saw at least 4 carries in the game last week for the Patriots and while Law Firm was by and far the leader with 14, it is incredibly frustrating to see as a Law Firm owner. Don’t sweat it this week against the Colts who can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – The Texans are going to have to dig deep to pull off a win against Atlanta this week.  I am not crazy about Johnson this week but Atlanta has a lights-out run defense and eventually, TJ Yates or not, the Texans will have to go to the air.  The only thing that will keep Johnson from producing is opportunity so if he can get a few targets, he will do something with them. I think AJ is a solid WR2 this week.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – The Bills were actually competitive again and Fitz played really well against that Jets D. I’m not sold yet.  The injury report for Buffalo is a mile long and I don’t see them as a high-powered offense without Fred Jackson in the lineup. Make Fitzpatrick do it one more time before you take a gamble and start him with your season on the line.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Hanie played bad on Sunday and while I expect him to improve, I have no reason to expect Knox to put up near the same numbers.  Watching the game last week showed that Knox was on fire and clearly the Bears’ best playmaker but after such a disappointing season I want to see him do it a couple of times before I start to buy in to it. Leave him on the bench.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – The Texans offense essentially runs through Foster and Tate now but the Falcons have absolutely been shutting down opposing running backs.  You have to start Foster regardless this week but I think he is going to be hard pressed to manage over a hundred yards. Lower expectations and hope for the best this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings really made an effort to get the ball in the hands of Harvin with Peterson sidelined.  Unfortunately the Broncos defense has been playing great in recent weeks and Harvin is not very likely to have a repeat performance.  His speed and skill in the open field mean that you should be starting him in your flex spot anyways but I don’t expect a lot of open space in this game.

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Studs

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – He didn’t find the endzone in this game but we can forgive him because he racked up 190 yards!  About time CJ. I’ll be treating him as a low end RB1 until im sure he really has it turned around. Hopefully he does and hopefully its not too late for you.

Drew Brees, QB, NO – The Saints have been a very good football team all year long. Brees and the offense played as close to perfect as I have seen them play all season last night and Brees ended up the top-scoring fantasy player in the NFL for week 12. If you own Brees and are headed into the playoffs, you should be ecstatic. This offense is scary to say the least and with Graham and Sproles really entrenched into this offense now, they are firing on all cylinders.

Roy Helu, RB, WAS – The Skins finally had a solid running game this week with Helu carrying the load and Torain riding the pine. We have little reason to expect Shanahan to keep riding Helu but he will remain a solid flex play for as long as he keeps being the most productive back on that offense.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – I am almost tempted to start rankings Cruz above Nicks but I just won’t be able to do it.  Cruz is a must-start and really ought to be above Manningham on the depth chart when both guys are healthy. Cruz’s hands and speed are a scary combination that have really proved to be a difference maker for the Giants.  Nicks is still the go-to-guy and a better red-zone target so he will remain above Cruz on my rankings but the gap is getting very narrow.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – Beanie is incredibly frustrating from a fantasy standpoint. He is #9 in the NFL among RBs for fantasy points scored yet he has had 4 pretty terrible games and very possibly cost you wins in each of those weeks. Bottom line with Wells is that when he is healthy, you have to start him.  The Cardinals offense relies heavily on the running game to provide balance and he WILL see a large number of carries in every start that he gets.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Caleb Hanie played pretty poorly in this game but the Bears were competitive in the game and Hanie was able to exploit the Raiders’ secondary at times and find his top receiver on a fair few big plays. Knox had a great game all around and helped with kick returns too but I would be careful trusting him too much next week.  I want to see him do it next week before I bother to try and start him with my season on the line.

Duds

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – This was a bit of an off-week for Rodgers and the Packers.  They won fairly convincingly but Jennings, Nelson AND Jones didn’t all catch TD passes.  Off weeks are tough… Keep starting Nelson as he scores far more often than not and there are a lot of mouths to feed in that passing game.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Don’t beat yourself up for starting him, you had to. But, only one straw was going to break in that game on Thanksgiving night and it wasn’t the Ravens’. With the Rams and Cardinals as opponents over the next two weeks, Gore is sure to get things turned around.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – I still can’t decide what the bigger story was out of that GREAT game on Sunday between the Chargers and the Broncos; the Chargers’ continued collapse or the Broncos continued surge.  One thing is sure, talent isn’t enough.  Jackson and Rivers should easily both be top 10 fantasy producers at their positions but Norv Turner does not seem to have this team playing for anything at the moment.  VJax is just a mediocre WR2 the rest of the way and ideally you can use him in your flex.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – I loved Wallace this week and couldn’t have been more wrong.  I would love him again next week if they played against the Chiefs again however.  I didn’t see a lot of this game but it was disheartening that the Steelers were not able to rout the hapless Chiefs. A win is a win however so we will have to just keep playing our Steelers and not panic much over a mediocre game.

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