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Jets at Bills

I am lucky enough to be going to this game and there might not be one that has a bigger impact on the playoff picture in week 9. Buffalo currently sits atop the AFC East and would have the #2 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today. Currently, the Jets are on the outside looking in on the playoff race and would have a really steep hill to climb if they lost this game. On offense, the Jets have gotten away from the ground and pound offense that has gotten them to two straight AFC championship games.  Buffalo’s defense has been incredibly opportunistic and currently leads the NFL with 14 interceptions. In order for Sanchez to get the win for his team and get back on track towards their Super Bowl aspirations, it will take a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and the run game. The Bills offense has been very explosive and it all starts with Fred Jackson, who is having an MVP caliber season. The Jets have been weak against the run and Jackson will pick them apart if they turn the ball over or get off to a slow start and force Sanchez to go to the air and play from behind. Unfortunately for Jets fans, that is how I see this game going.  Jackson just always seems to make the big play when it matters the most and the defense is constantly turning the ball over in crucial spots to help them put the game away. Steve Johnson is a flex play despite being on Revis island this week.  Fitzpatrick will look to him when he is in man coverage and should be able to put up OK stats in this game.  He hasn’t been great in recent weeks and I do not think that he will be able to do too much, but I just don’t think he can be benched. You can start all your normal Bills and Jets in this game, but I would avoid Sanchez as usual and expect this game to be largely about the running game.

Giants at Patriots

The Giants have a two game lead on their division and have been getting some incredible performances from both Bradshaw and Manning.  Bradshaw unfortunately is going to miss around a month of time and I am not sure Brandon Jacobs will be able to provide the same balanced offensive attack.  Luckily for them you do not need balance to attack the Patriots secondary, which is ranked dead last in the NFL and is allowing 323 yards per game. Hakeem Nicks is questionable going into this game and his presence would mean the difference in this game being either competitive or a blow out. If he plays it could go either way but without him, I do not know if they will be able to keep pace with Tom Brady. Brandon Jacobs gets a bump in value with Bradshaw out and you should play every Giants wide receiver that you own in this game.  Tom Brady is of course a must-start despite a pretty average performance last week and there are still no Patriots Wide Receivers that I would go out of my way to start.  I am expecting a Patriot victory in this game but if Nicks plays it will be a pretty close and high scoring affair.

Ravens at Steelers

My favorite part of the AFC North is that these two teams meet up twice a year.  There is always some great football to be had when defenses of this caliber meet up and these have been the best two defenses for at least a decade or two. This particular game could get out of hand as the Steelers are surging and the Ravens struggling, but nothing forces you to play your best like a divisional rivalry game that decides who will sit in first place. I would stay away from any flex plays from either team and just focus on your typical starters: Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace and Ben Roethlisberger.  Anquan Boldin is typically a very good WR2 option, but I think of him more as a poor flex play this week against this Steelers team that just shut down Brady.  I like Pittsburgh to get a tough win, but the Ravens defense has not been what has struggled as of late so I don’t see it being by any more than 10 points.

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Love

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – After starting the season playing very mediocre football, Manning has really stepped it up in recent weeks and helped the Giants hold on to a 2 game lead on the NFC East despite injuries and mistakes. There might not be a team in the league that relies more on their QB to be successful and against a VERY soft Patriots secondary this week, the stats are almost sure to be there for Manning. The Pats have allowed an average of 19 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s which is third worst in the NFL.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – Andy Dalton and the Bengals have won 4 straight and look to continue their winning ways against the Titans this week. Each team is just half a game behind the division leader and will be fighting hard to not give up any more ground. Green has been phenomenal this season as there has been just one game where he has not either scored or been over 100 yards. He earned his spot in the top 10 of my WR rankings this week.

Fred Jackson, RB, NYJ – The Jets have struggled to stop the run this year.  They haven’t allowed a lot of big plays, but opposing teams have had little issue grinding out yards with an interior running game.  There is not a back in the NFL that is hotter than Jackson is and with Revis and company likely to limit opportunities down the field for Fitzmagic, Buffalo will need to rely heavily on Jackson.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – I talked about the soft match-up in the Eli section and would not be surprised to see Cruz as the top receiver for the Giants this week.  Cruz is just going to keep getting better with each passing week and his big-play ability is impossible to deny at this point.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Buffalo is averaging over 30 points per game on offense and has been better at defending against the run this year thanks in large part to Dareus. Rex Ryan and the Jets will NEED to run effectively against the Bills to keep their offense on the sideline. I am confident that Greene will put up some good numbers off the heels of his first 100 yard game since week 7 of his rookie season (2009).

Carson Palmer, QB, OAK – Let’s keep my “Love” of Palmer in perspective. You are not starting him in a standard league unless you are really hurting because of Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford being on bye week.  He isn’t likely to have a huge game here since he is still not in the best of shape and getting acclimated to his new team and offensive scheme. But if you are in a 2 QB league then you can do a LOT worse this week.  Palmer might have McFadden back, which would take a lot of pressure off him and the Broncos are the worst in the NFL at fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Hate

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – This isn’t all because of Revis Island.  Fitzpatrick WILL look to Johnson when he is in man-coverage with Revis and I could see another game very similar to his past two weeks.  The problem is, he hasn’t been producing lately. He hasn’t hit double digit fantasy points in any of his past 4 games.

Joe Flacco, QB, PIT – The Ravens have really been VERY sloppy recently and the Steelers defense seems to have things turned around. Do you trust Flacco against the team that just shut down Tom Brady from start to finish? I don’t. Not when he was pretty bad against the Cardinals last week.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – With Tashard Choice joining the Redskins this week off of waivers, I am staying FAR away from Torain.  Helu is the guy I would play if I had to, but I would do anything you can to just leave all your Redskins on the bench. Apart from Fred Davis.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – I am pretty well sold on Brown at this point.  He is a play maker and a good deep threat. My issue with him is only for this week against the Ravens.  I think Ben will have a very tough time staying upright in this game and I don’t see Brown able to get too much done. He remains a very viable flex play in my rankings though as he has been targeted more than Steve Johnson, AJ Green, Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson this season.

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Studs

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – I don’t think anyone was happier to hear about Kyle Williams being  inactive this week than Bradshaw, who had his first 100 yard rushing performance of the year. Oh and three TDs to boot.  Bradshaw was the top scoring fantasy player for week 6 and remains a top 10 RB for me down the stretch. But when Jacobs comes back, I see little chance of THIS big of a performance again this season.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – People forget just how good Colston is because of how Drew Brees spreads the ball around.  I am still a little worried about Colston because of the extra work that Jimmy Graham has been seeing, but Colston is just about the best flex option you could possibly have and it would be difficult to sit him down in my opinion.  Marques had 7 grabs for 118 yards and a TD on 11 targets. Brees did not forget about him.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Turner really lived up to my expectations this week. With Carolina having a very banged-up line backing corp, I really expected Atlanta to attack on the ground. They did not disappoint as Turner racked up 139 yards on 27 carries and he scored twice. Of all the teams to not quite look like what they were last year, Atlanta worries me the least. They are going to be a playoff contender and the only player REALLY under performing as of late is Roddy White.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Freeman finally had a good game! But one is not enough for me. I need to see Freeman get over 300 yards with mutliple TD’s again next week before I think too highly of him.  I would also like to see him able to get Mike Williams involved in the vertical passing game again soon. Williams did have 59 yards on a team-high 6 catches this week, but I want to see him back involved in the big-play again too or this offense will struggle again down the stretch.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – I have a feeling that if you drafted this guy, you are doing pretty darn well so far this season in your league.  Win or lose, Freddie Jackson seems to have a great statistical output.  This week against the Giants was no exception. After this game Jackson sits at #2 in the NFL in total yards rushing, #3 in total yards from scrimmage AND #1 in fantasy points among RBs. There are not many RB’s making more of a splash in the passing game and you simply cannot be caught dead with Jackson on your bench at this point.  Well… except this week since he is on bye.

Devin Hester, WR, CHI – Unless your league counts return yards, you really shouldn’t be too worried about going and picking up Hester. He has been a starting receiver for a couple of years now and has not been able to produce with any regularity. With that said, he single-handedly beat the Vikings on Sunday night with his TD catch and return TD. He is definitely ownable in 14 team (or more leagues) as well as leagues that do in fact count return yards… but my guess is he isn’t available in these leagues anyways. Keep him on your bench folks.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – What more can you say about the 49ers?! 5-1 is a VERY impressive start for a team, despite how terrible the rest of the NFC West might be.  Gore started the season really slow in the first two weeks, but now has three consecutive 100+ yard games and is living up to the preseason rank I gave him of #5 overall.

Duds

Roddy White, WR, ATL – White has been very underwhelming this season and he will remain a top 10 option on talent alone but he will continue to fall in my ranks with each mediocre performance.

Vernon Davis, TE, SF – I am surprised that the 9ers are being so efficient on offense without involving Davis more often. He remains one of the most talented TEs in football and as long as the team is winning, I am going to recommend that you start him.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – The Redskins did terrible this week and while it was mostly Rex Grossman’s fault, none of the three RB’s did anything to help out.  Torain was my favorite to see the most work and he only put up two points.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – The Packers are clicking on all cylinders and Aaron Rodgers has no shortage of targets to throw to. Finley will be fine and is one of the top TE’s for fantasy owners.

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Love

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – Last week the 49ers demonstrated that a significantly less talented team is able to beat these Eagles.  Philly racked up over 500 yards of offense and was still beaten by a tough, physical running game.  The Bills have a very balanced offensive attack, but are almost certain to focus on getting Fred Jackson into a groove early on so that he can keep Vick off the field.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – After Cam Newton was able to put up such big numbers last week against the Bears, I am pretty optimistic for Stafford and Megatron this week. With three road wins in the first four weeks of the season, I don’t see this game going badly for this surging young team. I expect the hot streak to continue at least one more week.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – Mathews is on pace for 1,000 yards rushing AND 1,000 yards receiving this season and going against last season’s 31′st ranked rush defense this week.  Denver has been statistically better so far this season but with two interior defensive linemen injured, I think they will continue to fall down the rankings in this area.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – After seeing what Denarius Moore did to the Bills in Week 2, I think the weakness in Buffalo’s secondary is to speed. Something tells me DJax has some speed…

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Jets still have a great secondary, but have struggled containing the run game.  The Ridley situation is a serious cause for concern but with Law Firm being the go-to-guy on the goal line, he is worth the risk this week.

AJ Green, WR, CIN – Gabbert is going to have some trouble against the NFL’s top ranked defense and this will lead to a lot of chances for Dalton and Green to connect on a big play. Jacksonville is also known for not being able to handle big, physical, play making receivers.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB – With this being a Bye-week for 6 different teams, people need to dig a little deeper into their roster to find an RB 2 or a flex play.  Most people don’t want a piece of the Grant-Starks situation but Grant looked really good two weeks ago and with no one to compete with in week 4, Starks failed to impress anyone with a very mediocre performance. There is DEFINITELY some risk involved here but I think Grant will get the first look this week. If he runs well, he’ll see the lion’s share of the workload.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – Last week we saw a very different Fitzpatrick than we saw in the first three weeks. He is a bit of a gun-slinger so I am not too worried about interceptions, but I was surprised to see such poor decision making and inability to take advantage of any match ups last week.  I hope he turns it around but against an all-star group of corner backs, I think it is only reasonable to hope for around 15 or so fantasy points.

Mike Thomas, WR, JAC – Rookie QB in just his second career start and going against the league’s top ranked defense spell bad news for Thomas and all Jaguars not named Maurice Jones-Drew.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – Going against the Saints this week means that Carolina will be playing from behind and won’t have too much time to dedicate to the running game. Since Stewart has been the better player thus far and has also been much more involved in the passing game, I think he is the one worth the flex start. I would try and leave Williams on your bench if at all possible.

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – Given the bye weeks and the fact that Jones has been being worked more and more into the offense as the season has progressed, a lot of people are high on him this week.  I know the Falcons play better at home, but I think Matt Ryan will need to use a short to intermediate passing attack due to a heavy pass rush and this does not really fir Jones’ skill set. As always with a vertical threat it just takes one big play to make a good fantasy outing, but the odds are low in my opinion this week.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – The Giants d-line is finally starting to get healthy and Lynch has yet to really demonstrate that we can trust him to be consistent on a weekly basis. I don’t trust Lynch as more than a poor flex-play in standard leagues and that is saying something with 6 teams on bye.

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