1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy Moss
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Miles Austin
5. Roddy White
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Larry Fitzgerald
9. Greg Jennings
10. DeSean Jackson
11. Marques Colston
12. Anquan Boldin
13. Steve Smith (Car)
14. Mike Sims-Walker
15. Wes Welker
16. Michael Crabtree
17. Steve Smith (NYG)
18. Dwayne Bowe
19. Pierre Garcon
20. Chad Ochocinco
21. Donald Driver
22. Percy Harvin
23. Hines Ward
24. Hakeem Nicks
25. Jeremy Maclin
26. Mike Wallace
27. Santana Moss
28. Vincent Jackson
29. Malcom Floyd
30. Johnny Knox
31. Santonio Holmes
32. Devin Aromashadu
33. Kenny Britt
34. Sidney Rice
35. Bernard Berrian
36. TJ Houshmandzadeh
37. Braylon Edwards
38. Terrell Owens
39. Robert Meachem
40. Lee Evans
41. James Jones
42. Jacoby Jones
43. Dez Bryant
44. Jerricho Cotchery
45. Steve Breaston
46. Legedu Naanee
47. Derrick Mason
48. Mike Willams (TB)
49. Mohammed Massaquoi
50. Eddie Royal

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This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

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Well, week 3 of the preseason is where we get the best look at the fantasy players from each team (if healthy) before the season.  And while many people don’t like to use the preseason to impact their rankings, I feel this week is one of the best indicators you can find before your draft.

Packers vs. Colts

Well this was a hell of a game to watch.  You usually don’t get to see quite so many sparks fly in the preseason, but with these two high powered offenses playing for around 3 quarters… It was bound to be a fun one to see.  Since all the insanity with Favre and now Sidney Rice being out half the year I have to think the Packers are now the favorite to win their division.  Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate so far, and Jennings has been much more active in the passing game than last year. He (Jennings) could rack up 1400 yards and 10 TDs no problem this year.

As for the Colts, no need to be concerned.  They had some rough spots caused by, what seemed to me, deliberately pushing the limits of the new ball spotting system.  I hope that the Reggie Wayne doubters have been paying attention, because I think he has had a VERY strong preseason and he will remain my number 3 WR.  Garcon has done a good job separating himself from Collie and Gonzalez and in doing so he earned a bump in my rankings.  Also I am starting to have some concerns about Addai.  He is in a contract year, and the Colts drafted Donald Brown for a reason.  I think if Addai misses just one game he will lose his job permanently to Brown.  The Colts will not want to pay to re-sign a back in his decline.

Cowboys vs. Texans

It is no surprise that the offensive line is the biggest area of concern for the Cowboys offense this year, but even so, Romo spent too much time on his back this week.  If they play this poorly during the season Romo will not be able to stay healthy.  Austin and Witten will maintain their production through these issues, but I am concerned for Felix Jones who seems to get injured a lot as is.

Arian Foster became the first Houston Texan to break 100 yards rushing in a preseason game this week and moved up quite a bit in my ranks as it is becoming clear he will see the vast majority of the carries.  Seeing Slaton back to return kicks shows that they don’t intend to use him like they used to by any means.  Jacoby Jones also had a strong showing in this game, helping his cause for becoming the #2 guy over Kevin Walter.

Bears vs. Cardinals

So far this preseason we really hadn’t seen a glimpse of last year’s Jay Cutler, until this week that is.  The bottom line is with this guy, is he is a gunslinger that makes some bad choices.  You need to expect around 20 interceptions from Cutler this year but you can also expect 30 TDs and around 4,000 yards.  Johnny Knox and Chester Taylor both looked very strong in this game as well but I don’t quite give anyone a bump in the rankings.

Oh Arizona… I thought you were finally going to be a good team, but now there are rumors flying around about them trading away Matt Leinart or cutting him altogether.  It is definitely time to downgrade all the Cardinals in our rankings. Beanie Wells can’t be productive in an inconsistent offense that can’t convert on third downs and between the injury and the QB situation I am afraid that Fitzgerald will have a very bad season (at least by his standards).  Tim Hightower is falling too far in the drafts that I have seen, he will still be their third down guy and if he is hot they will certainly not be afraid to let him get some carries.

Chiefs vs Eagles

First thing first, Jamaal Charles is fine, no worries for fantasy owners here.  He is not supposed to miss any time in the regular season.  After he left the game Thomas Jones did a great job filling in for him, but I still think he will be inconsistent behind a worse offensive line and might actually be more productive as the number 2 with fewer carries and hits taken.  It was good to see Dwayne Bowe get involved a bit more too, he remains a sleeper of mine for the middle rounds.

I remain convinced that the success of the Eagles offense hinges on DeSean Jackson.  So, it was not much of a surprise to me that they did not do well without him after he left very early.  As with Charles, no concern here for fantasy owners… he will be back by week 1.  LeSean McCoy ran well, but did not see a lot of carries.  No adjustments to my rankings for any of these guys.

Other Notable Performances

LaDainian Tomlinson – Gotta start calling him a sleeper.  Watching Hard Knocks may be tainting my reaction here, but I just keep hearing Rex Ryan say “I love being right”.

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush

Joe Flacco

Frank Gore

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What a perfect time to be doing my previews on this particular division! Favre and his inability to make a decision is finally not a nuisance… I am as shocked as you are.  This time yesterday this post was going to be about how the Packers were the only team that could upset the Vikings for the division title.  Now it is pretty much a coin flip as to whether they will be the front runners for the division.  Aaron Rodgers has matured to an elite Quarterback in this league and it should be fun to watch as he aims for super bowl rings.  As long as the defense can keep playing at a high level we should see the Packers make a serious playoff run (even with Favre still wearing purple on Sundays).  I love Packers players for fantasy this year because they are on a consistent offense that has all the tools it needs for success, there is very little risk.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Aaron Rodgers – This is my number one QB this year.  He will have similar passing stats to Brees but toss in a few rushing TD’s and a small handful of yardage to put Rodgers over the top.  I think you can wait on QBs till round 8 or so this year, but if he falls past the first couple of picks in the second round you’ve got to scoop him up!

Ryan Grant – I have seen him falling to early in the third round in some mock drafts.  This is a ridiculous bargain for a guy that should be top 10 in points at the end of the year.

Greg Jennings – Despite his streaky production last year, he is a value pick.  He is one of the best of the tier 2 wide outs this season and he really shouldn’t fall past the third round.

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1. Randy Moss
2. Andre Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Greg Jennings
5. Chad Ochocinco
6. DeSean Jackson
7. Vincent Jackson
8. Brandon Marshall
9. Anquan Boldin
10. Sidney Rice
11. Mike Sims-Walker
12. Donald Driver
13. Miles Austin
14. Wes Welker
15. Marques Colston
16. Steve Smith (CAR)
17. Roddy White
18. Michael Crabtree
19. Calvin Johnson
20. Hines Ward
21. Derrick Mason
22. Steve Smith (NYG)
23. Santonio Holmes
24. Braylon Edwards
25. Terrell Owens
26. Reggie Wayne
27. Kevin Walter
28. Antonio Bryant
29. TJ Houshmandzadeh
30. Joshua Cribbs
31. Dwayne Bowe
32. Lee Evans
33. Steve Breaston
34. Percy Harvin
35. Robert Meachem
36. Hakeem Nicks
37. Pierre Garcon
38. Roy Williams
39. Josh Morgan
40. Donnie Avery
41. Jeremy Maclin
42. Chris Chambers
43. Devery Henderson
44. Kenny Britt
45. Mike Wallace
46. Johnny Knox
47. Tory Holt
48. Santana Moss
49. Justin Gage
50. Davone Bess
51. Mohamed Massaquoi

2 Comments »

Nick

Ok, here is the deal. I’m having a lot of mixed emotions on who I should start this week. I don’t think I can go wrong with my options, but it is the playoffs and I need all I can get. In our league, our roster looks like this. QB WR WR RB RB TE W/T W/R. I’m set at QB with Schaub and my #1 and #2 RB are AP and MJD. My starting TE is Dallas Clark. As of now I have Greg Jennings and Robert Meachem in my WR spots. This is where I don’t know who to play. I have 2 spots to fill (W/T and W/R). I have Antonio Bryant, who I really like this week. Dwayne Bowe who has a good match-up against the Browns. Heath Miller who may see some action with Woodson on Holmes and Ward being banged up. I also have Beanie Wells and Arian Foster who have great match-ups. Which 2 players should I play in my last 2 spots? And I forgot to mention it is a PPR league. PLEASE HELP!

I would put Bryant in as the WR2 and probably play Bowe and Wells this week.  Wells isn’t a PPR threat but he has a great match-up and they seemed to cut out Hightower really early after that fumble last week.

John

gore maroney moreno charles or jacobs which 3 do i start

Gore Moreno Charles for sure Maroney is going to share too much to have a big game

Kolby R

Baltimore vs Chicago or Arizona vs Detroit
I am currently planning on starting Baltimore. They will crush the pocket and force turnovers. What do you think?

Ravens are my number 1 defense this week, good luck bud!

Matthew

hi jim. i decided to bench sims-walker last night (ugh!), and now i’ve got to go with bowe or manningham this week. what do you think?

Manningham shouldn’t be on your roster anymore so its definitely Bowe!

Quiet Time

Defense: GREEN BAY vs Steelers or ARIZONA vs Lions this week?

WR PPR league: Calvin Johnson??? or Derrick Mason?

Manningham shouldn’t be on your roster anymore so its def Bowe.  And Cardinals Defense is my 3rd, so play them.

Weez

Do I have a better chance starting Boldin/Breaston against the Lions with a banged up Fitzgerald? Or should I start Meachem over Breaston? No way I’m sitting Boldin though. Even after he cost me a win last week….*grumbles*

I like the Boldin Breaston play, and it has nothing to do with Fitz =D

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Studs

Brady Quinn and Matthew Stafford – I want to address the performances of the two quarterbacks at the same time. Stafford’s game is statistically the best performance from a rookie QB ever. Look it up, stafford is the first rookie to throw five TD passes since 1937!!!!… Leather helmet wearing Ray Buivid of the Bears was the last one to do it. In addition the 422 yards is the best ever, beating Leinart’s 2006 season-high total of 405 in Arizona. This means little in fantasy football to be honest, neither QB is someone you want to rely on going into the playoffs. All season we have been happily starting anyone playing the Browns and the Lions anyways, so the stars did their job under the ideal circumstances… big deal. From a non-fantasy perspective these games mean that these QB’s have the ability, and its up to the coaching staffs and front offices to make the teams better with more talent and getting everything they can from what they have.

Terrell Owens

Who knew the Bills had an offense? No one!. After one game it has become relatively apparent that Jauron was largely to blame for many of the offensive issues. Fitzpatrick was the first 200 yard passer in Buffalo since dating back to last season, and Owens totaled 9 catches on 14 targets for 197 yards including a 98 yard TD pass. He also finished the week as the highest scoring fantasy WR in the league. The real question is can we expect this type of output from the Bills week after week? We all know I certainly hope so, however it is not likely. Fitzpatrick played really well, and the success of this team is dependant on the QB position (where is it not?) and I do not think Fitz is the answer for the Bills. Remember the name Brian Brohm, because I think you’ll see him taking snaps before the season is over, and I sincerely think he would be better than Edwards and Fitzpatrick. So where does this leave Owens and Evans? Who knows, they are both worth a roster spot for a match-up play its up to the Bills to find a QB for them though!

Greg Jennings

Wow, you finally got what you drafted! The question is, did you already find better options to replace him? Lots of owners are going to feel more than a little burned by Jennings’ performance versus a solid opposing defense on Sunday. Jennings got 10 grabs for 128 yards and a TD which are about the numbers you expected to see probably 4 times by now. Jennings was drafted a top10 WR in most leagues and has been a pretty steady disappointment since week 3, which was the last 100 yard game. Jennings remains a deep threat and a red zone threat as well, and with a superb match-up Thursday versus a Lions D that Brady Quinn made look like a college team… wonder what Rodgers will throw for!?

Brett Favre

Well I don’t know what the Vikings are thinking letting Brett throw so much with AP in the backfield. Did they not watch the film from the end of last season when he just wore out and his team crumbled around him. I am a Peterson owner and have loved every minute of the incredible consistency that he continues to show despite tying the lowest total he has had all season, 9. However with that said, in Fantasy Football you are a fool if you don’t have a pretty short memory. I don’t think he will be able to keep up this kind of output into the playoffs, but as a fantasy owner you dont care start him till the game he tosses 4 or 5 picks in a game. Hope that’s not the playoffs!

Duds

Roy Williams – Dump list earning performance this week versus, admittedly, the best passing defense in the league, but the match-ups don’t get better. His only chance is if teams are still keying on Austin who has been lackluster as of late, and could be tossed aside onto my dump list soon too.

Brandon Marshall – Orton had to play hurt versus a very good pass defense and Marshall suffered. Only 2 points… his fantasy production is linked to Orton’s so it’s up in the air. Your probably still starting him baring you have an obviously better option.

Braylon Edwards – Exactly the same number of drops as fantasy points… ONE! Not a ridiculous number of drops, but not too many catches either (1 on 5 targets).

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