The fantasy playoffs are about to begin and with some fairly big injuries occurring this week, there is a significant chance to add some good depth to your roster as well as pick up some key handcuffs that could set you ahead of your opponents and give you an edge when the whole season is on the line.

Pickups

Marion Barber, RB, CHI – With Forte potentially out for 2-4 weeks, Barber is bound to be this week’s hottest pick up.  The schedule is really rough for the Bears over the next couple of weeks.  With Denver and Seattle in the next couple weeks, each having a solid rush defense, I think that Barber will be mediocre at best without a quality QB to stretch the field vertically. I wouldn’t bend over backwards to get him unless your now missing Forte going into the playoffs.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Thomas had a big game this week but I am not sure you should trust him as a starter yet.  Decker is still the guy I like the most to catch one of the few deep balls from Tebow and lets face it… there aren’t many of those to go around.  I  would scoop up Thomas anyways though.  You don’t want an opponent beating you off a goofy, freak performance.

Brad Smith, WR, BUF – Buffalo’s offense isn’t what it was over the first 6 weeks of the season and it isn’t going to turn back into that team either.  They have had a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball and no Fred Jackson obviously hurts the most.  With that said, they are finally playing competitive football and I think you can expect some decent production.  Buffalo goes against San Diego next week, who teams have definitely been able to move the ball against and Smith stepped up at WR with 7 grabs on 10 targets for 72 yards.  He could make a decent flex-play if you’re desperate but either way he is a quality player to have on your bench.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Detroit is going to have to turn the ship around quickly to make a playoff push this season.  Jahvid Best’s absence has made a big difference and Smith was able to bring back that dimension of the offense when he is on the field.  Injured or not, if he is active next week they will use him for as long as they can.  Smith was by far the Lions’ best offensive weapon in the first half and they simply can’t afford not to use him if he puts on his helmet next week.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, MIN – He didn’t overwhelm us with numbers this week (6 catches for 90 yards) but I was impressed with his performance none-the-less.  Aromashodu saw 15 targets this week and it feels as though there is a decent connection between him and Ponder.  Percy Harvin is going to draw a lot more attention after another monster game and with the Lions for opponents next week, you can do worse in a deep league.  Detroit had a lot of trouble getting to Brees last night and if Ponder has time, Aromashodu just might have a big game.

Dump List

Jackie Battle, RB, KC – Battle’s touches and production have been down over the past few weeks and since Thomas “old man river” Jones saw more carries and Dexter McCluster was more productive, you can let Battle go for a crack at Barber if you need to.  I would still hold him as the best Chiefs running back but with the playoffs starting next week, hopefully you aren’t desperate enough to need him!

Early Doucet, WR, ARI – Looking at the stat line, you might think that Doucet didn’t touch the ball on Sunday against the Cowboys.  That is simply not true.  He caught two passes for zero yards.  Doucet has has some OK games this season but he hasn’t had double-digit fantasy points since week 1 and there are likely some guys out there with more upside. Go get Brad Smith or even Golden Tate.

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - The Saints are as healthy as ever and the backfield is very crowded.  Thomas is essentially an after-thought for Sean Peyton and should be for fantasy owners too.  Little reason to have him on your team unless there are no better options or Ingram goes down to injury.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT – He is still owned in a third of leagues, believe it or not.  I don’t think I need to justify his spot on this list.

DJ Ware, RB, NYG – Bradshaw was back and saw some use on Sunday so I expect Ware is done seeing significant work.  If it wasn’t for converting on a 2 point conversion, he would have posted a goose-egg for fantasy owners. He is simply just a handcuff at best and even then, he will be sharing carries.

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Well, we have 4 weeks in the books and the bye weeks are about to begin with Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis and Washington all about to take the week off.  For this and the three weeks that follow, depth will be very important and ignoring the waiver wire could prove to cost fantasy owners some very important wins. So let’s take a look at the most appealing guys left on free agency in a lot of leagues.

Pickups

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – If you didn’t see Andre Johnson’s injury, it looked TERRIBLE. He caught the ball, turned up field and crumpled to the ground like someone shot him. These non-contact injuries tend to be more severe and while the news has been good so far, I am still considering Johnson to be out for at least two weeks and his fantasy-owners should plan accordingly.  Jones was a popular sleeper last season as he is similar to AJ in many ways and the Texans’ offense is now looking for someone to fill that role. If I owned Johnson, I would run to get Jones off the waiver wire before someone else scoops him up and you miss out on all the targets that Jones should be about to see.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Everytime I answer a question or give advice on a Redskins RB, I give the Shanahan disclaimer. Mike Shanahan hates fantasy owners and you can NEVER be surprised to see his starter or feature back change. Ever. Ryan Torain was the guy I thought was the best feature-back to lead the team in carries and Hightower has never been in that role before and Helu looks more like a third down back. Out of left field, Torain was put in and tallied 135 yards and a TD. Washington is on its way to the Bye week for this week, but Torain has to be considered the top fantasy-option among Redskins backs and can’t be left on free agency. But, don’t expect this to be a long-term deal with his injury concerns.

Laurent Robinson, WR, DAL – Dallas is about to head into the bye week and Austin is going to get healthy again before too long. But Ogletree had appeared to be the one you want while Austin is out, but Robinson showed this week that he is the guy you want after 7 catches for 116 yards.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – This is the second week in a row where I thought Ridley looked better than Law Firm and I am starting to get concerned for the value of both Woodhead and Law Firm.  This week Woodhead was almost completely irrelevant and both Green-Ellis and Ridley saw double digit carries as well as found the end zone.  On six fewer carries, Ridley out rushed Law Firm by 22 yards. I would pick up Ridley but I am not excited to need to use any of three Patriot backs until we can be sure how they will be used.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – Lloyd was back and he was still putting up numbers.  Why Decker is only owned in just over 60% of leagues is beyond me. 5 catches for 56 yards and two TD’s adds up to a quality outing for fantasy owners. As we head into the bye weeks, you can do a LOT worse than starting Decker in your flex.

Steve Breaston, WR, KC – The Chiefs brought in Breaston to be a complimentary deep threat to play opposite Dwayne Bowe.  Now that Charles is gone and the running game is lacking, Breaston is forced to play the role of possession receiver. I wouldn’t recommend picking him up unless your in a deeper PPR league… but he has value going into 4 straight weeks of 6 teams on bye.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – This guy just looks like a play maker on the field. You get the sense that anytime the ball gets into his hands, he has a chance to take it all the way. Apart from a bonehead play that almost backfired big-time, his 6 catches for 98 yards looks pretty impressive with both Nicks and Manningham in the lineup. And for the record, I DO think he gave himself up on that play. He didn’t trip, he just flopped down face first between two defenders and left the ball there as he went back to the huddle. He likely assumed someone touched him as the defenders were RIGHT there and I highly doubt he’ll make that mistake again.

Dump List

Scott Chandler, TE, BUF – He is a fine play if your guy is on a bye week or even in a TD only league, but after this week we know that Buffalo is not yet an elite offense and Chandler has only REALLY been effective around the goal line.  There is really no reason to hold a bench spot for Chandler in your standard league.  I just find it too hard to trust a guy with one career catch before this season.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – With the woes that the Bears offensive line is trying to fight through, the Bears’ passing game won’t be more than mediocre this season and Cutler only has time to find an open receiver or check down to Forte in the flat. I don’t think you should drop Knox unless you really like a free agent, but I don’t see starting him anytime soon so don’t be afraid to in order to make room.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, NE – He still might find a way to a productive part of Brady’s offense but I don’t see it happening anytime soon and even when it does, after so many weeks of no production he needs to build trust with a couple of solid performances in a row.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT – I still see Ward on some rosters and unless your league counts points for Dancing with the Stars, this is crazy. Ben can’t stay on his feet OR healthy this season and Ward has lost his touch due to age. Get him off your team already folks!

Carnell Williams, RB, STL – Steven Jackson sure looks to have lost a step, but he is still better than Cadillac Williams. Now that Jackson is healthy again, you can drop Williams. He is not worth the bench spot.

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Question 1: Asked by @Magnific_ANT_1

I wake up this morning and I’ve been offered Julio Jones for Tim Hightower. What about the Helu factor. That’s has been a reason for me wanting deal Hightower.

Answer

I would not do this deal. Helu is likely to stay in his change of pace roll as long as Hightower is able to keep up this production. I do not think Julio Jones is going to be overly productive this season.  I would have liked to see him have a big scoring play already and think his progress will be a little too slow to be a big fantasy-factor this season.

Question 2: Asked by @aglikas

Crazy thought, putting in a waiver claim for Ochocinco and dropping Hines Ward. Are you in favor of this?

Answer

I think it is a very smart move. Ward is old and his production has dipped too far with the Pittsburgh offensive line playing so terribly. Chad might not be playing well right now but the Patriot offense is a machine and I didn’t expect very much from him early on. Ward has no chance to break out, but Chad still has time to get his act together and become a valuable target for Brady.

Question 3: Asked by @jersymikejr

Cam Newton, Matt Ryan or Kevin Kolb?

Answer

This is a two man race between Ryan and Newton in my eyes and it is REALLY close. I don’t discredit Cam for last week’s game in a monsoon… he did get the win after all and posted decent fantasy points.  Ryan has a safe match up here and I have to give him the nod against a bad Seahawks team. Newton has potential for a bigger game this week, but I think Ryan will get you over 15 points for certain and the rookie is always more likely to implode and do nothing.

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Question 1: Asked by rwfleener

I figure on starting Larry Fitzy but I need to start 1 more reciever which one would you start, Randy Moss or Hines Ward?

Answer

Well, one thing is for sure… Drama doesn’t impact Moss’s fantasy points.  Vince Young has been a phenomenal passer when healthy this year.  He has seen a lot of pressure since teams were stacking 8 in the box to stop Chris Johnson, but now with the presence of Moss that won’t happen near as often. I am a firm believer in the Titans since they have made this trade, if Young can stay on the field for the rest of the season then the Titans will win their division. Moss also has a history of strong outings right after changing teams, so he is worth the risk here. You can see my original answer and the answers of others on Fandemic.

Question 2: Asked by @thebudmonster

I need 1 player at wr, rb & flex? dez, bowe, s. moss, s. smith(south), breaston, t. jones, r. brown.

Answer

Alright, well for your RB I am leaning towards Thomas Jones.  Denver has not been a strong run defense this year and for some insane reason, Todd Haley and Charlie Weiss keep giving him the ball.  Logic says he should see less carries with how bad he was last week, but this is the 15th time I have said that in a post so I expect him to get at least 50% of the carries again this week.  Dez Bryant is essentially the entire running game of the Cowboys in the past few weeks.  They have been using him on a lot of very short routes and bubble screens to substitute for their complete inability to run the ball.  And for any other owners out there, I would put him just outside the top 10 in a PPR format this week.  For your flex go with Santana Moss.  He has been very effective this year and with Vick playing the best football of his career, the Redskins are going to be down and throwing to try and stay in the game.

Question 3: Asked by latinangel5439

Matt Schaub vs Jags or Kyle Orton vs KC Chiefs??

Answer

I have seen a lot of Matt Schaub questions this week and they all are coming from owners who are frustrated and have completely given up on him. I can’t blame you guys, but the numbers don’t lie.  The Jaguars are allowing an average of 18.5 fantasy points per game to opposing Quarterbacks.  With the Texans being the only team in the league to allow more, this should be a very high-scoring and passing oriented game.  It would be a mistake to sit Schaub, since Andre Johnson alone could easily get 150 yards and 2 TDs by himself and he won’t be the only one to catch the ball. You can see my original answer and the answers of others on Fandemic.

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*Game is being played in London

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*Game is being played in London

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Love

Peyton Manning, QB, IND - How can you NOT love Manning, especially against the leagues worst overall defense? With the running game being so banged and the Texans pass defense being absolutely abysmal, Manning could easily top 400 yards in his effort to avenge their Week 1 loss.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Matthew Stafford is a MUCH better QB than Shaun Hill and Megatron was able to keep his value up in the absence of the team’s franchise quarterback.  Lions fans should be excited to see what they can do with Stafford back in the lineup… and fantasy owners should also be excited about the increase in upside for all their Lions players.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – The Panthers have a pretty nice schedule coming up and that has me excited to see how their offense is able to rebound.  But, if Williams can’t get it done this week against the Rams then I will get very nervous very quickly.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – I don’t understand why Todd Haley is so invested in using Jones extensively in the running game when Jamaal Charles is clearly a much more dynamic play maker that would make the most of the additional carries.  With that said, it is not my job to understand it… just to analyze it.  As long as Jones is looking to get 15 carries against the Bills’ terrible run defense, then I love his chances at having a very productive game as a #2 RB for his fantasy owners.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – Foster has lit the league on fire thus far this season.  This week he will be going against a Colts defense allowing an average of 20 fantasy points per game and he is a must start for your #1 RB spot this week.  This is the same match up that led to Foster putting up 231 yards and three TDs (41 fantasy points) in Week 1.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT - In the past two games with their starting QB back, the Steelers receivers have been on fire.  Ward is a possession receiver so his upside is less than his teammate Mike Wallace, but he will prove to be much more consistent throughout the season.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL - Who has two thumbs and isn’t worried about Jon Kitna for this week? THIS GUY!  I love every WR when they play against the Jaguars and until Kitna proves to be completely inept, I am going to assume that he is not.  A veteran QB should have very little issue hitting an elite receiver that is wide-open all day.  Austin may no longer be a top 10 WR, but with this match up he still is.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – If its a PPR league, you should still be using Welker as a top 15 option and a must-start… but even in standard leagues it is not time to panic yet.  Minnesota’s secondary is banged up and the offense will not be the same even if Favre continues his consecutive start streak this week.  With two fractures in his ankle, there is little chance Favre will be able to push off as firmly on his throws and pick up the long 3rd down conversions he usually can.  This will lead to more time on the field for the Patriots offense and opportunities for their receivers.

Tony Moeaki, TE, KC - The Bills are allowing an average of 13 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and Moeaki has made some great catches this year.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET - I like him for the same reason that I liked Matt Forte last week.  That prediction backfired, but the Redskins still allow a lot of yardage and are currently ranked 31st in overall defense.  With Best being involved in both the running and passing game the stage is set for a big game like we have not seen since week two… which was the last time he found the end zone.

Hate

Owen Daniels, TE, HOU – The Colts are so bad at defending the run that teams tend to focus on that in order to keep Peyton Manning off the field.

Danny Woodhead, RB, NE - The front seven of the Vikings is among the best in the NFL and I don’t see the Patriots trusting Woodhead with the ball in the red zone.  Given he is in a committee situation there is a better option for this week on your team somewhere.

Vince Young, QB, TEN – The Chargers allow just over 7 fantasy points per week to opposing Quarterbacks and even if active Young will not be 100%.  Stay away if possible this week.

Sam Bradford, QB, STL – The Panthers rank 24th against the run and 4th against the pass. You tell me what your game plan would be against the Panthers, but I am guessing it would include a lot of Steven Jackson.

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Question 1: Asked by @LSUGelpi

What do you think about Roy Williams? Think he’ll continue to put up numbers like last week? I am debating between him and Hines Ward.

Answer

I think Roy has found himself a very nice spot in this Cowboys offense that might keep him on the team past this season.  He is not the dynamic play maker that they went out and signed a few years back, but finally he is showing that he can be a decent receiver.  He has earned a spot on someones roster in every league, but the Steelers receivers have been dying to get their starting QB back and with the Browns coming to town you have to go with Ward here.

Question 2: Asked by joeyb4228

Play Hillis or Britt?

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This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

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The Steelers are playoff football team when they can play their starters.  However, Mike Wallace needs to fill in for Santonio Holmes without a hitch and I think that will happen.  The real problem though is obviously the four or six game suspension to QB Ben Roethlisberger.  No one can fill that void in terms of the fantasy impact on Hines Ward, Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall.  And now with the injury to Willie Colon the Steelers need to find a new right tackle to solidify the line as Colon appears to be out for the season.  Most people will be listing Wallace as a sleeper, and he could be… I just do not think he is quite as talented as Santonio Holmes so keep your expectations realistic. 

Top Fantasy Players

Rashard Mendenhall – The above mentioned impact on Mendenhall is actually a positive one.  During the Roethlisberger suspension, Mendenhall will be used heavily and will be carrying a large load of the offense for that time. Oh, and with a balanced attack after the suspension he’ll do just fine too.

Ben Roethlisberger – Obviously he is going to fall in drafts, but if your starting QB does not have a bye week until after week 5 then Ben is the best backup you could ask for!

Hines Ward – Tough to predict how a possession wide receiver will do, especially as he ages.  With the first four weeks a total question mark, Ward is a WR3 or flex option.

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