Joseph Addai, RB, IND – Active
Jahvid Best, RB, DET – Active
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – Active
Donald Brown, RB, IND – Inactive
Austin Collie, WR, IND – Active
Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – Active
Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Active
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Active
Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Inactive
Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS – Active
Tony Scheffler, TE, DET – Active
Vikings at Saints
There are no shortage of big games to kick off the 2010 NFL season and none are bigger than the Thursday night kickoff game. The much-anticipated rematch of the NFC Championship game is sure to be one hell of a show with two high-powered offenses squaring off against opportunistic defenses. To me this match up boils down to how much pressure the Vikings can get on Drew Brees with just the front four. Last season the Vikings led the NFL with 48 sacks and they are facing the offensive line that had the fewest sacks allowed. If the Vikings can get Brees uncomfortable in the pocket and leave seven people in coverage they should be able to control the ball with AP and get a few big plays on the Saints suspect secondary. Brett Favre has significantly fewer weapons at his disposal this year, however if the Saints can limit the effectiveness of the ground game or force a few turnovers they should win this prime time slug-fest. Pierre Thomas owners should look to their bench for an adequate replacement, but don’t look too far because with the release of Ladell Betts and only Reggie Bush to contend with Thomas should have a decent game… nothing too big is really possible facing last years best run defense and Bush getting the majority of the passes. Look for big games from Marques Colston and Percy Harvin as each secondary has its issues defending against the deep ball.
Ravens at Jets
There is no denying how much Darelle Revis means to the Jets as they try to improve upon last year’s loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship game. New York is missing its best vertical threat in Santonio Holmes and will need to rely on its ground game to win what is bound to be a fierce, defensive, field position battle. If Sanchez can keep from throwing interceptions to the Ravens defensive backfield that will be lacking ball-hawk Ed Reed, then the Jets should be able to win this in a close battle. Anquan Boldin makes his debut in a Ravens uniform this week, but he is stuck on Revis Island and should not have a productive week compared to how he will do down the stretch. I think Shonn Greene and Ray Rice owners should lower expectations for this week given the caliber of defense on the other side of the ball, but you are likely still going to be starting them anyways so no real change made there.
Bengals at Patriots
This match-up does not have quite the same appeal as the Vikings Saints offensive showdown, but for old school hard nosed football fans this could be the most exciting game of the week. The Bengals swept their division by having a punishing run game and a stout, opportunistic defense. The Patriots are a nightmare on third down and are never out of a game. I think we will see a heavy dose of Cedric Benson on Sunday in an effort to keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field. I have concerns about Wes Welker mentally having enough confidence in his knee to make the kinds of cuts that he used to. He will be fine overall on the season but is not likely to be quite as effective as he has been in recent years. Still feel free to use him in your flex and WR2 in PPR leagues. Ochocinco is still the only receiver on the Bengals worth starting this week, but big plays are certainly a possibility from TO, though they will be unpredictable and inconsistent.
Colts at Texans
The Texans are a better team than most people realize and starting the season at home against the Colts is their best chance at beating them in the regular season. The Texans are 1-15 in franchise history against this team and the best way to convince these guys they can win the division is to beat the annual champions of it. The Texans will be hoping to get Arian Foster the ball upwards of 20 times and Steve Slaton around 10 times by the end of the game. If they can use their run game to supplement their explosive passing offense they should be able to remain competitive. The Colts can’t reliably cover all the receiving threats that Matt Schaub has at his disposal this year and Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are exceedingly difficult to cover inside the red zone. In order to win the Texans will need to force turnovers and find a way to pressure Manning without Brian Cushing, who is serving a suspension for violating the substance abuse policy. The Colts are not a strong preseason team, and if they can’t get off to a fast start could find themselves on the ropes. I think the Texans and Matt Schaub will play a solid game, but I never bet against Peyton Manning. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are both favorites of mine this week.
This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance. In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL. This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well. With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential. The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers. Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story. You can see my top 50 WR’s here.
The Top 5
If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1. Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs. Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage. Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them. He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play. You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs. With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year. He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out. Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.
The Second Tier
My 2nd tier of wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency. At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion. That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson. We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor. Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely. If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year. Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be. Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss. You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format. Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year. Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him. Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today. DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason. He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball. Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy. It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.
Second, Third and Flex Receivers
So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season. If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine. With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career. We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it. He is incredibly talented. Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year. Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense. We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent. Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents. Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.
Spot Fillers and Sleepers
In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season. Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension. Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended. Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian. Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.
Sleepers
Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)
Busts
Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston
Recap
You definitely will need an elite WR this year. Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches. I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.
