Pickups

Kahlil Bell, RB, CHI – The Bears have lost any playoff hopes with an expected loss to the Packers this week.  Their offense did as well as you could have hoped for if you owned anyone in fantasy football this week and it all started with Bell. He ran for 121 yards and threw in 38 yards receiving as well. He should have scored a TD too but he fumbled into the end zone and an offensive lineman scooped it up for the score.

Joe Webb, QB, MIN – The Vikings offense struggled this week until Christian Ponder got knocked out of the game with a concussion.  Webb came in and immediately walked down the field on three consecutive possessions for a TD.  With Webb being effective and the Vikings’ season already over, I don’t think the Vikings are going to risk rushing Ponder back too soon with a head injury.

James Jones, WR, GB – Of all the people on this list that have a serious chance of making an impact on your Super Bowl, James Jones has highest upside.  Green Bay’s offense was back and firing on all cylinders and I expect Aaron Rodgers to play for at least the first quarter with 1st place completely locked up.  After that, Matt Flynn is a more than capable backup.  He almost beat Tom Brady in prime time last year when Rodgers was out with a concussion and the Lions defense is certainly beatable.  It is also worth noting that Detroit has locked up a wild-card spot  and is not playing for anything this week either.

Jared Cook, TE, TEN – Cook has blown up over the past two weeks.  He topped a hundred yards last week and out-did himself this week with 169 yards and a score.  A lot of successful teams play tight-end roulette and if Cook hasn’t been snatched up yet, he is as safe of a bet as you can find on free agency.

Evan Royster, RB, WAS – Anyone getting that many carries is worth a spot on someone’s fantasy team, even if he is on Mike Shanahan’s team. Helu might come back but even if he does, who knows what Shanahan will do.  At bare minimum, if your opponent is light at RB, you don’t want him to have access to this guy so scoop him up or he will.

Dump List

There is no player too good to drop, assuming your opponents don’t need him.  You are in the Super Bowl and your opponent has 3 top 10 WRs then you can cut ANY receiver that you want to make room for someone you might need, or more importantly that your opponent might need.  Good luck to you all!

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Bengals at Steelers

The Bengals have been one of my favorite teams to watch thus far this season.  They have one of the most prolific rookie QB to rookie WR combinations ever as well as a solid running game to compliment one of the best and most complete defenses in the NFL. Despite being in the middle of 4 games against their division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, if the season ended today, the Bengals would be in the playoffs. They will need a big win this week against the Steelers to keep the Jets and Tim Tebow in the rear-view mirror and they certainly have a good shot at it. The status of Troy Polamalu could easily tell the tale of how this game will go.  AJ Green will be able to blow the top off of the coverage a few times without Troy and his hair out there on Sunday and this season teams have been able to run against the Steelers with limited success. Pittsburgh on the other hand had issues moving the ball on offense against the Chiefs last week and this has me far from confident that they can find a way to win this game.  I am going to follow my gut and take the underdog Bengals to win a very close game.  Cedric Benson falls JUST outside my top 20 (to 21st) in my running back rankings, which makes him a great flex option or passable RB2. I am continuing to consider AJ Green matchup-proof still and kept him inside my top 20 this week at wide receiver. Rashard Mendenhall has proven to be nothing more than an RB2 this season and I ranked him on the low-end of my top 20 against the 5th best rush defense in the NFL. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown were unaffected by the match up when doing my rankings so you can start them confidently in whatever role you have been using them in.  Big Ben doesn’t have a lot of upside and he remains a low-end starting QB this week.

Packers at Giants

The Giants are in a dog fight over the NFC East title and this game is huge for them.  Unfortunately this is also one of the two games remaining where the Packers can reasonably be beaten.  I am obviously going to put my money on Green Bay but if they win this one, I only see the Lions in week 17 as the only team capable of beating them. I expect Green Bay to play for the undefeated season as they remain the best and among the least injured teams in the league. The Giants on the other hand have had a variety of injuries but have persevered through them and sit one game behind Dallas for the division lead. Neither team has a defense that scares me at all and surprisingly, the Packers are the 31st ranked pass defense in the league.  This is helped by the fact that they always have a sizable lead late and teams are throwing in desperation to try and play catch-up.  I think Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can be started with supreme confidence in this game as junk-time should be very good to them at least. Brandon Jacobs should be rendered irrelevant by the time the 4th quarter comes around and the duo of Starks and Grant for Green Bay has not been worth much attention for fantasy owners, so stay away.

Lions at Saints

The Lions have an opportunity to jump ahead of Chicago in the wild card race now that Caleb Hanie is at the helm for the Bears.  It won’t be easy this week against the Saints, who have really hit their stride in recent weeks.  Last Monday, the Saints dismantled the Giants and I honestly expect another convincing win for Brees. Detroit seems to have issues pushing the ball down field when they don’t have balance with the running game.  Teams have been able to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and contain him in order to try and force someone else to make the big play.  This formula has worked better for some teams than others but I think it works very well for the Saints this week, who are bound to score plenty of points on offense.  Neither defense scares me from a fantasy-owners stand point, so you can go ahead and start your QBs and WRs with confidence.   Don’t bother with any of the running backs unless you are really desperate. James Jones is the most questionable receiver in this game and I think you have to play him if your light on options and are looking for a high-upside player that can beat a really high scoring opponent.

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Love

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The Falcons need to prove that they are a Super Bowl contender this year and Turner has been their most consistent performer. Cam Newton has been a play maker and has been finding a way to put up numbers against EVERYONE he has played. With the Falcons’ defense not playing up to expectations either, I think a heavy dose of Turner is the best way for the Falcons to avoid an upset at home.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Austin is coming off an injury and I would expect him to have a slow start, but the Patriots score a ton of points and struggle to stop opposing QBs.  I don’t think Dallas wins this game, but Austin and Bryant should be in for big statistical performances as they will play from behind and have little trouble passing the ball.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – Last week was a bit of a let-down for Benson owners, but he ran well and was far from a dud. This week he goes against the Colts who have not been able to stop anyone on the ground all season. Benson sees a lot of carries and Cinci tries to run first to take pressure off Andy Dalton, who will hear the footsteps of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney all day.

Jake Ballard, TE, NYG – Buffalo struggles to defend opposing tight ends. Ballard has TD’s in two straight games and this is not something you can expect to continue after this week, but the numbers say that Ballard is likely to make it three games in a row this week against the Bills. He is still outside my top 10, but if you have to fill a gap for your bye week, Ballard has a pretty good shot at a nice statistical performance.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – He hasn’t been active much, but he looks like a punishing runner when he is. Thomas goes against the Jets this week who have just had a terrible run game as of late and with Matt Moore at QB, Thomas will be the focal point if he is able to go.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith had a breakout game in week 3 and then people kind of seemed to forget about him.  He did put up a goose-egg against the Jets the following week, but Flacco looked for him a fair few times and on one play specifically he beat Revis deep. The throw was just a hair too far, but if it had connected we would be talking about him like a top 20 guy right now. He has only had just one game with fantasy points so I don’t think he is a really smart start but with bye weeks upon us, if your digging deep for a flex play… don’t just look past Smith.

Hate

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – I see a lot of people have Eli inside their top 10 QB’s and that is crazy to me. The Bills’ secondary has been playing great as of late and Eli has been known to struggle with turnovers.  Buffalo leads the NFL with 12 INTs on the season and three consecutive games with a pick 6. Eli will keep his receivers’ stats up there, but I think that interceptions will keep him from crossing the 20 point mark this week.

Tim Hightower, RB, WAS – It’s not about his talent and it’s not about the match up. We just simply don’t know how the carries will be divided. I expect Hightower to be the third down back and Torain to see the most work. But I would NEVER bet on how Shanahan will use his running backs. Hightower is a flex play at best this week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – Playing with a Raiders receiver is a lot like playing Russian roulette for fantasy owners. Heyward-Bey has seen a lot of targets as of late, but I am not going to think that the emotional performances from Sunday are likely to repeat themselves. I have written about Darrius before as well as Jacoby Ford, Chaz Schillens and Denarius Moore over the past few season and not one of them were able to do anything consistently. Jacoby Ford is the receiver I want to start from this team if I need one and it is because they use him in the running game.

Isaac Redman, RB, PIT – Redman is the best bet to see the goal line carries even if Mendenhall was active, but he is not too likely to see much more work no matter who is inactive. Dwyer was just a better runner last week and if Mendenhall doesn’t go, I would rather start Dwyer over Redman.

James Jones, WR, GB – Don’t let one big game cause you to bring a guy from free agency straight into your lineup.  Any receiver can have a big game with Aaron Rodgers at QB and last week was Jones’ turn.  Odds are it’ll be a few games before he manages to make such an impact again.  Jennings, Finley and Nelson are all going to see more targets.

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Pickups

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – The though of drafting Newton was absurd to me a week ago, but after a rookie debut record 422 yards and two TDs, he MUST be owned.  I won’t pretend like I thought there was a chance that Newton would blow up at any point this season, but regardless of who your starting QB is, your backup spot is about upside. Newton has the potential to be a HUGE surprise as a top10 QB on the season and with bye weeks a bit away, feel free to drop your backup on the off-chance you get to trade Newton away for a starting WR or RB.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – This rookie receiver for the Packers tied an NFL record for longest play with is 108 yard kick return for a TD in the kickoff game on Thursday night. I didn’t think of him as much of a sleeper before he demonstrated how dynamic of a playmaker he is due to the resigning of James Jones and the lack of a retirement announcement from Donald Driver.  We can be sure that the Packers will be looking for ways to get the ball in Cobb’s hands now and he is worth a spot on your bench to see how he develops over the next few weeks.

Scott Chandler, TE, BUF – I’ve gotten a few questions about Chandler already as a Buffalonian.  People have expected me to have inside info about this guy but honestly, I don’t have much.  He had, I believe, just one career reception before this 5 catch 63 yard performance in which he also caught two TD passes. The TE position is pretty wide open and since there are only 4 or 5 of them who I am comfortable starting on a week-to-week basis, I think Chandler is a risky pickup and start this week.  The reason im willing to do it after just one good game is because of the match-up against Oakland being decent.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Kevin Walter hurt his collar bone in week 1 and I believe he will miss some extended time early in this season.  With Jones at number two on the Texan’s depth chart, I think he is going to see enough targets that he will be worth a shot in deeper leagues and as an injury/bye week fill-in.

Cadillac Williams, RB, STL – If your draft didn’t pan out at the RB position, Williams may make a good fill-in next week as Steven Jackson appears to be unlikely to play in week 2 against Carolina. He has no value when Jackson is active though in my opinion, so don’t think of it as an long-term solution.

Robert Meachem, WR, NO – I don’t like Saints receivers for fantasy purposes. A lot of people think the Colston injury is going to open up room for either Meachem or Henderson, but the absence of Lance Moore is the most intriguing absence to me. Colston was best utilized as a goal line target and none of these receivers can fill that void in my opinion, so that work will go to Jimmy Graham. Meachem will benefit from increased targets in the short to intermediate passing game where both Colston and Moore were used.   I think when Moore is back, Meachem and Henderson are very probably not going to be at all reliable enough to start again.  Until then, don’t leave them on free agency for an opponent to use.

Fred Davis, TE, WAS – Rex Grossman impressed a lot of people this weekend.  He looked like an effective leader of the offense and led his team to a win against their division rival New York Giants. I don’t think Davis is as good a pick up as Chandler, but if you had Cooley and there isn’t much talent on waivers, I would probably grab Davis.

Dump List

Peyton Manning, QB, IND – This one is fairly obvious but I don’t believe in over reacting to a poor week 1 and dropping someone because of one bad or mediocre performance so I have to have SOMETHING for this list. If you don’t have an IR spot and aren’t in a keeper league, there is no reason to hold Manning any longer. He will not likely see the field this season unless the Colts are somehow still in the playoff hunt late.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – Dexter McCluster seemed to be the secondary back in week 1 for the Chiefs as Jones only saw two carries throughout the game.  His age made him a late round pick in drafts and I’m convinced that it is now the Jamaal Charles show in KC.

James Jones, WR, GB – Jones was, I thought, no lower than 4th on the depth chart at receiver for the Packers.  This made him an ownable player to sit on your bench but with the emergence of Randall Cobb in week 1, I see no reason to hold Jones any longer.

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Pickups

James Jones, WR, GB - If you are in a very competitive league with people that do their homework, Jones will not still be available.  He had a huge day filling in for Driver this week and if he can keep it up while Driver gets back to 100% it is entirely possible that Jones becomes the new #2 receiver for Rodgers and the Packers. Don’t let him remain unowned in your league for another day.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD - With Ryan Mathews leaving this game after re-aggravating the same injury that has been hampering him all season, it is easy to see a scenario where Tolbert takes the reins of this rushing offense and with him already getting the goal line carries he will be a top 20 RB if Mathews does miss time after the Chargers week 10 bye.

Mike Goodson, RB, CAR - Admittedly, you are going to need to be pretty desperate to pick up and start Goodson.  But, with DeAngelo Williams being out for 2 weeks in a row, Jonathan Stewart leaving this game with a concussion and Tyrell Sutton unable to finish the game either… Goodson could see 20 plus carries next week if Williams is not able to go.

Nate Burleson, WR, DET - This may all be a waste since Stafford is hurt again and has been the reason that Burleson has value.  But, if you are in a PPR league you should go for it anyways.  Calvin Johnson runs the deep routes all game and Burleson handles all of the possession routes.  In standard formats you should watch to see if Stafford is going to be OK before making a move on Burleson.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Anyone who thought Brett Favre was done was mistaken.  There is no quit in that senior citizen and that is demonstrated by him putting up a career-high 446 passing yards in a tough overtime victory over the struggling Cardinals.  This value will only hold until Sidney Rice returns and that could be as soon as this week.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU - With a game coming up against the Jaguars, who can’t cover receivers to save their lives, Jones is a sleeper pick for Week 10.  Jones is a big, physical receiver much like Andre Johnson and this is one of the only weeks left on the schedule that is favorable for the Texans passing attack.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - The Giants are an incredibly streaky team that goes from looking like an elite Super Bowl contender to looking inept on both sides of the ball.  For now, they look more like one of the best teams in the NFC and with a game against the Cowboys coming up in week 10, all their receiving threats get a significant upgrade in the rankings this week.  Manningham should be able to cover for you as a flex play this week if your having injury or bye-week issues.

Mike Thomas, WR, JAC - Thomas is my third option as a injury/bye-week fill-in this week.  The team that allows the second most points per week to the WR position is the Houston Texans.  This game should be filled with big passing plays due to how inept each secondary is and before their last game in week 8, Thomas was the best receiver for the Jaguars.

Dump List

Darren Sproles, RB, SD – It really looked like Sproles was going to go back to being used by the Chargers offense this week considering all the injuries to receivers and how effective he is in the passing game.  Unfortunately even when Mathews was knocked out of the game, Sproles did not get used and shouldn’t be trusted at all the rest of the year.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – He just doesn’t have it in him anymore.  The Panthers offense is struggling and there is no telling who will lineup at QB for them any given week.  That inconsistency and the below-average play of Stewart make him a complete bust for this season, so get out while you still may be able to salvage your team!

Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Vick just doesn’t look for Celek with any regularity.  You may not be able to find a better option on free agency, but if you can then don’t feel bad about dumping Celek.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - I don’t care how dynamic of a play maker he is, you can’t wait forever for this guy to prove his worth.  He is on a bad team, with an inconsistent offense and since he has only had one decent week all year, you can’t trust him to start him… so just drop him and let him be someone else’s headache.

Marion Barber, RB, DAL - The Cowboys are a bad team.  It may not have looked like it going into the season, but as they fight with the Bills for the number 1 draft pick and are completely unable to run the ball, there is no reason to hold on to their number 2 RB.

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Pickups

Jason Avant, WR, PHI - With both Eagles quarterbacks playing at such a high-level and DeSean Jackson taking a huge hit and suffering a severe concussion Maclin and Avant will each be asked to run deep routes more often.  Avant stands to see the biggest increase in production with all the extra time he will spend on the field in that pass-happy offense.

Fred Davis , TE, WAS – Cooley suffered a concussion last week and after seeing how effective Davis was in his place last season, you can be relatively confident he will be at least a redzone target of Donovan McNabb’s for as long as Cooley sits.  It is worth noting that Cooley had 3 concussions in college and could miss considerable time given this history.

Deion Branch, WR, NE – There is a lot of love for Branch in the Patriots locker room and front office.  In his return to the team he had a great game for any desperate fantasy owners that needed to dig this deep for a flex play.  For now he will be the 2nd best fantasy receiver in New England, but don’t drop Brandon Tate just yet.

Patrick Crayton, WR, SD – I don’t know how it would work out well for the Chargers if they were missing both Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates… but Rivers is going to find someone open in the passing game and with the experience that Crayton brings to the table, he would be the only one worth the risk to fantasy owners.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Eddie Royal was the most consistently targeted receiver on the Broncos and with his injury, someone will need to pick up the slack.  Thomas was loved by the Broncos organization in the pre-season and due to injury he has missed a lot of time.  With Royal potentially missing time due to his groin injury, Thomas would be the likely candidate to come on in 3 WR sets.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - He was banged up again after a monster first half, over 100 yards and a score.  He also isn’t available in that many leagues but he shouldn’t be in available in any so go make sure.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI - You aren’t starting him, but all pre season I thought that Devin was the best red zone threat that Jay Cutler had at his disposal.  There was chemistry between them at the end of last year, but for whatever reason he saw almost no playing time on offense in the first quarter of the season.  He is a large receiver that is very hard to cover in the red zone so he is worth a roster spot if your looking for depth and upside.

Dump List

Willis McGahee, RB, BAL – You have to be on the field to have value to fantasy owners and after Rice has seen so many more goal line looks in the last 2 weeks I would feel comfortable dropping Willis for someone with more upside and carries. WARNING: Trade deadline is Tuesday night at midnight, so don’t make a move until you’re sure he hasn’t been traded! (right before Waivers typically get processed… how convenient)

James Jones, WR, GB – With all the injuries for the Packers, Jones has yet to step up and become a play maker on offense. Until injury befalls either Jennings or Driver… there is no chance you would risk starting this guy so why keep him?

Mike Hart, RB, IND – Even with Addai leaving the game early Hart was not able to be too productive.  It might take a while until the Colts backfield is at 100% but Hart isn’t going to get lead back carries ever.  There is no need to waste a roster spot on this guy.

Kevin Walter, WR, HOU – Walter is a truly unique receiver in the NFL.  There has never been one that is used exclusively for blocking in the past, but apart from one HUGE game he has done squat.  Make sure you don’t go down with the ship.

Sam Bradford, QB, STL – I am only speaking to people in standard 10 team leagues that only start 1 QB.  This guy is not worth the risk.  They just beat the Chargers at home and Bradford got just 11 points, there will be uglier games than this so don’t take the risk.

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Pickups

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Portis was beaten up all game and Torain was left to pick up the slack.  Averaging 3.89 yards per carry on 13 carries he was able to find the end zone and come up big for any fantasy owners who were digging deep enough to use him.  Shanahan is well known for utilizing his unknown running backs to the best of their ability.  As an interesting side note, Portis was the most successful of Mike Shanahan’s discoveries and one of the only to have a long career.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – You still won’t be able to start Sanchez in anything but a deep format, but if you are being riddled by injuries and/or bye weeks then Sanchez is proving to be a very realistic option.  The offense is soon to get Santonio Holmes back and Sanchez should actually see an increase in production once they are able to stretch the field.  Oh, he hasn’t thrown an INT yet on the season either. The Jets will be able to make it to the Super Bowl if Sanchez can keep up this safe yet efficient play style.

John Kuhn, RB, GB – The RB position is a mess in Green Bay but with bye weeks upon us such a productive goal line back on one of the leagues best offenses deserves a spot on someone’s team in every league.  Here is hoping you have some of your FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) left after grabbing Jackson earlier.

Jason Avant, WR, PHI – Avant was a decent flex play late last season but in the Mike Vick offense he disappeared.  Once Kolb entered the game Avant was the only receiver he was able to work into the mix and could help you out as a bye week plug-in over the next couple weeks.

Tony Moeaki, TE, KC – He was just on his bye week and if you have an underachiever with his bye coming up, this guy is the real deal.  He fits in well with the Chiefs offense since Cassel doesn’t have the arm strength to throw the deep ball consistently.

Michael Bush, RB, OAK - I don’t know exactly how the situation between Bush and McFadden will flesh out, but for now at least it looks like both of them will be able to be fantasy relevant.  Bush should only be used as a flex play until this proves to be a regular occurrence.

Javon Ringer, RB, TEN - He has ability to be a big play threat and while he is not start-able while CJ is playing he is looking to be one of the best hand-cuff options out there.

Dump List

James Jones, WR, GB - He couldn’t get the job done against the Lions, so even if he does have a few good games this season it is unlikely you would be starting him anyways.

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - The Cardinals offense is inept and Hightower will be losing more and more touches over the course of the season to Beanie Wells.  If I owned him I would just bail out now before it gets any worse.  There must be someone out there with upside.  You can ignore all of this if your in a PPR league.

Laurence Maroney, RB, DEN - Moreno can’t come back fast enough.  The Broncos are a pass-first offense in what is proving to be a very competitive division.  I expect them to stick with what is working for as long as Orton is red hot.  Maroney has done nothing with his two starts so get rid of him now instead of two weeks from now.

Darren Sproles, RB, SD – This was the second week that Mathews was inactive or limited by injury and Sproles has yet to be a factor in the offense.  No reason to hang on to him with Tolbert the obvious number two.

Lee Evans, WR, BUF – While Fitzpatrick has provided a spark for the Bills offense the past two weeks Evans has been unable to have any substantial production.  I know he was up against the Jets, but there was lots of junk time in that game and Evans couldn’t even get open against a prevent defense.

Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, CLE - Delhomme will give him some value, but it will be VERY hit or miss and I couldn’t trust him even if I was in bye week hell.

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This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

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