Patriots at Jets

The AFC East is still up for grabs.  Brady and the Pats have already lost more games than they did during the entirety of last season and after losing the the Giants when they didn’t have their two top offensive weapons (Bradshaw and Nicks), I am starting to think they might not be as invincible as they’ve been in years past. Thankfully for them, I think they match up well against the Jets. Welker has not really had too much issue being productive against the Jets in the past and usually Revis does not follow him all over the field. Teams have had success against the Pats this season by locking into man-to-man coverage on the less than elite receiving corp of New England and sending as much pressure as possible at Brady.  In order to get the win, Sanchez needs to play a perfect game and not give up any turnovers. If he can do that, there will be plenty of yardage and opportunities to get points on the board.  The Pats secondary has been just awful this season and still may prove to be their Achilles heel, much like it was for the Texans last year. Brady and the Pats need to lean on Law Firm and the running game in order to limit the time that their defense can be out there giving away the game.  I like the Patriots to win a high scoring affair after New York gets off to a slow start and is unable to catch up.  Welker and Brady are must-starts despite the less than appealing match-up but you should stay away from Deion Branch.  Upgrade Sanchez and the Jets receivers going against the NFL’s worst pass defense and feel free to use Shonn Greene in his typical RB2 role.

Saints at Falcons

Atlanta sits a game behind the Saints for first in the NFC  south and with the game being at home, I like Atlanta in this game.  They need to get back to running most of their offense through Michael Turner so that Roddy White and Julio Jones are able to see more man-to-man coverage and make big plays. Neither team has a scary defense that should make you concerned about giving them a start this week.  Atlanta needs to find a way to slow the Saints’ pass rush and and Turner is their best bet to do so.  Once they are able to bring the 8th man into the box, their receivers will be able to make the difference and get the win.  This game could easily go either way but Matt Ryan is almost a completely different quarterback at home and the Saints lack the depth at receiver to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Start all your typical players with confidence as this is not likely going to be a low scoring affair but do NOT expect a repeat performance from Julio Jones, who I anticipate being a very hit or miss player for his fantasy owners.  I am considering him as a very good flex play for the rest of the season unless he is able to consistently hit double digit points.

Lions at Bears

Don’t worry I won’t make  a joke about Tigers here, but this game should make a HUGE difference later on as the NFC wild card spots start to get figured out.  I think we all expect the Packers to win the NFC North and I would be surprised if at least one more team from the division didn’t make the playoffs.  Detroit is up a game on the Bears at the moment and getting this win would be huge for their playoff hopes this season. Detroit’s front seven has slipped in recent weeks and their issues with stopping the run has caused them to have issues late in games when they had been able to be so effective early on this season. Unfortunately for them they face Matt Forte this week and he has been simply incredible for the Bears.  For the past few weeks the Bears’ offensive line has been playing much improved football and when Jay Cutler has time to throw, this Bears offense is very difficult to stop and the Lions’ secondary has not been playing that great either. This is a very difficult game to predict the outcome for however with the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connection being near impossible to stop.  I wouldn’t use a Lions receiver outside of Megatron unless I absolutely needed to and I also am downgrading the Lions’ running backs.  If Best can play, which I doubt, I wouldn’t think he would see his normal workload and Maurice Morris is not quite good enough to run wild against the Bears stout defense. I like Chicago to win this close game and Cutler has a relatively clean jersey at the end of the game.

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Texans at Titans

Houston failed to run away with the division as I had thought they would and Tennessee actually sits in first at 3-2 with the Texans at 3-3.  The Titans got off to a VERY fast start when Kenny Britt was healthy and even with VERY limited production from Chris Johnson over the first three weeks. Johnson HAS had 12 fantasy points in two consecutive games to start to recoup some of his value but with where you drafted him and the size of his contract, I think we ALL can agree that one 100 yard rushing game is not good enough. Both defenses here are allowing just over 100 yards on the ground per game and I think that the Tate and Foster combo will prove to be too much for Tennessee to deal with.  Matt Schaub is listed as Questionable at the moment but assuming he plays, I like the Titans to win this game handily. I think Chris Johnson and Arian Foster are must starts this week, as per the usual. And Nate Washington and Jacoby Jones are viable plug-in guys for an owner in Bye week hell.  In deeper formats Hasselbeck might be OK, but this Texans secondary is legitimate under Wade Phillips and you should look elsewhere if possible.

Chargers at Jets

With the Chargers’ record being this good, this early and the fact that the Jets have gone to two straight AFC championship games… I could see this being a preview of the AFC Championship game.  One thing needs to happen in order for us to get to that point though; The Jets need to play a LOT better. Both on offense and defense, the Jets are not the team I thought they would be and it all starts with the running game. The recipe for playoff success is simple; Run the ball and stop the run. Obviously you need to be able to stretch the field vertically to compete with the Drew Brees’, Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s of the world, but nothing shuts these elite QBs down like a lot of time on the sideline. This is exactly why the Chargers are going to win this game and I am not convinced it will be close.  The Chargers are healthy on offense again with Antonio Gates looking to rejoin the list of Rivers’ targets on offense and the Bye week helped Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert get back into playing shape.  With two backs that are more productive than Shonn Greene and the Jets defense appearing unable to contain the running game, I think that we will see very limited fantasy production from all of your New York Jets.  The one guy I do want to start from New York is Santonio Holmes because of junk-time stats after the Chargers have already run away with it. Bye weeks might force you to use Greene, but I feel like you are hoping for a goal line carry or two here so that you can at least get a TD out of him. I think Mathews and Gates are in for big games for San Diego, but don’t expect too much from VJax and Rivers despite the fact that your going to be playing them.

Bears at Buccaneers

This game, if you didn’t know, is being played at Wembley Stadium in London. Tampa has made this trip to play in London and they learned a thing or two the last time they did it. Don’t travel to London late in the week and face jet lag as well as your opponent… Tampa has been in London since Monday and holding practices in England all week. Chicago waited until today to make the trip and as a result, I think Tampa Bay has a serious advantage in this game.  You couldn’t make me bench Matt Forte at all this season but since Cutler and his receivers are risky under ideal circumstances, just leave them on the bench this week. Mike Williams clings to a top 20 spot in the rankings despite his hugely disappointing season thus far, but if this advantage holds true, one step is all a receiver needs to beat coverage deep and Freeman is still more than good enough to to recoup his fantasy value.  Earnest Graham is worth a play to fill-in for a bye week despite the weak match-up should Blount sit and it looks like he will. You shouldn’t look to this game for any deep or sneaky plays, but you should see solid outings from the guys that you have been counting on all year long.  I think Tampa gets the win as the “home team” and stays on top of their division.

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Bears vs. Lions

The Bears have something the Lions want. The title of “Division Champ”. They can’t win that this week but they can certainly help their cause considerably. The story of this game will be the Bears’ offensive line, which has played terribly this season.  The Lion’s front seven on defense has been able to make up for their secondary with a great pass rush.  Also, the run defense has been really good through the first four weeks and we can expect them to contain Forte on the ground. Don’t worry fantasy owners, he’ll get enough rushing yards to compliment his receiving total and remains a must-start and a top 10 RB. Cutler is a decent QB2 this week, should your league allow you to play two, and his receivers are all too inconsistent to be worth even a flex spot as even Johnny Knox has almost fallen outside of my top 40 receivers.  Calvin Johnson is quite possibly the MVP of the first quarter of the season with remarkable consistency as he has hauled in two touchdowns in every single game thus far. Stafford has also joined the ranks of the elite fantasy QBs. Injuries remain a long-term concern in my opinion but until that happens, he is still the guy throwing to Megatron and he has led the Lions to 4-0.  I like the Lions to win at home in the dome, but I would not be at all surprised if it was a relatively low-scoring game.

Packers vs. Falcons

Last year, the Packers handed the Falcons one of their only two home-losses of the season. That game also ended the season for Atlanta because it was in the divisional round of the playoffs. I actually like Atlanta to win this game in a shootout. The beat Green Bay at home last in week 12 of last season, but it was far from a shootout. This year, both defenses are not quite living up to the expectations that most of us had for them. This should make for a lot of big plays and Julio Jones is inside the top 25 at wide receiver for the first time, making him a very good flex play. Hopefully he can find his way into the end zone for the first time in his career. Most people are staying completely away from the Ryan Grant/James Starks situation, but I think Grant makes a pretty good flex play with six teams on their bye week. Starks did not impress me last week with Grant sidelined and the week before that, Grant outplayed Starks considerably. Rodgers, Jennings and White are all must starts as always.

Jets vs. Patriots

The Jets sure need a win to try and pull even with Buffalo for the number two spot in the division.  If they could pull it off and Buffalo loses to Philly, which I expect will happen, there would be a three-way tie at 2-2 atop the AFC East. That was fun wasn’t it? Let’s be serious, I like the Patriots to win this one handily. Rex Ryan’s defense has some explaining to do after two very mediocre performances in a row and an inability to contain the running game. I also don’t think Darrelle Revis can stop Wes Welker the way the Patriots have been using him over four weeks.  There is no one better at running shallow crossing routes to draw linebackers into trying to cover him and if the Jets really do force Revis to follow him all over the field, the rest of the Patriots receivers will be taking turns being open even deeper down the field. I also think the Jets offense will be able to be productive against a Pats defense that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.  If Sanchez can avoid stupid mistakes, Santonio Holmes could be in for a big day. I have him ranked is a viable WR2 or flex play. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the most likely back in New England’s committee to see carries at the goal line, so he remains the highest ranked of the three. Stevan Ridley HAS out performed Law Firm over the past two weeks though and might be worth a flex play in deeper formats however.

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Texans at Saints

There aren’t too many better places for the Texans to make a statement to the NFL than the Super Dome. Houston is 2-0 and quickly became the favorites to win the division when David Garrard was released from Jacksonville and Peyton Manning went under the knife before Week 1.  Houston is dying for a playoff birth and a big road win against Drew Brees and the Saints would really speak volumes about their chances in the post season.  Houston still needs to show me that their secondary can play far better than their embarrassing performance last season and keeping Drew Brees at bay is just the task that I want to see them face in order to convince me.  They have certainly showed signs of improvement this season and currently sit at #1 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, but I do think that Brees and the Saints will prove to be too tall of a task for Wade Phillips’ defense and I actually thing both Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are quality plays this week with Colston still injured.  Ingram remains a bit of a stretch to start as he is still carving out his niche in this offense and Sproles has earned a fair share of playing time with his ability to make plays over the first two weeks. I do not think that Arian Foster is a sure-fire #1 back if he plays because after he had to come out in week 2, I expect the Texans to bring him back slowly. Schaub should do fine facing a very good defense with a very disruptive pass rush now that Owen Daniels seems to be rebounding to the reliable target that he was two years ago and despite Andre Johnson finally not being my top ranked receiver, but obviously he remains a must start and only fell to 3rd.

Packers at Bears

A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game headlines the 4 o’clock  games this weekend and it has a lot of meaning for both teams.  The Bears are the defending division champs and the Packers are the defending Super Bowl champions.  The Bears are trying to establish themselves as a Super Bowl contender and beating Green Bay has been an issue for them recently and means a whole lot to Bears fans. I think that a Mike Martz offense has a serious chance to exploit this Green Bay secondary that has allowed back to back 400 yard passing games, one of which was by Cam Newton in his 2nd start ever.  The Bears defense has been playing well so far and should be able to contain the Packers offense enough to give the offense a chance.  I actually like the home team to win in an upset here.  Matt Forte produces more in the passing game than on the ground and as long as he keeps up this level on consistency, I don’t care how he does it.  Forte is fast becoming a top 10 fantasy running back because of his receiving ability like we haven’t seen since Brian Westbrook and is a must-start regardless of match-up until further notice. Johnny Knox remains the top receiving threat for fantasy owners on the Bears because of his speed and big-play ability, but he is a flex play at best.  Cutler is a good option this week in my opinion as there is a lot of tape of how to put up big numbers against the Packers in the air from the past two weeks and I really liked what I saw in the home opener against the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons.  There is no way the Packers go down without a fight and while I heavily downgraded the running backs for this week, you are starting Rodgers, Finley and Jennings no matter what happens and I can’t really argue with Jordy Nelson in the flex either if your in a deep format or short on receivers.

Patriots at Bills

I wasn’t going to take advantage of the opportunity to talk about my home town team, but the game really does just jump out at more than the rest of the games.  If you had to guess who the top scoring offense in the NFL was who would yo say? Patriots right? They aren’t even the top scoring offense in their division with Buffalo having 79, Detroit having 75 and the Pats sit in 3rd with 73.  It seems pretty obvious to me that the bubble is going to burst this week as the Patriots are a machine and the Bills are just not equipped to put up the number of points that are likely to be necessary to continue to out score Tom Brady. Buffalo fans are DYING to finally get a win over the Patriots (believe me) since the last time it happened was EIGHT YEARS AGO when they won 31-0 and came out to a blazing 5-1 start only to miss the playoffs.  I still have trouble seeing Buffalo doing much more than 7-9 and scaring some wild card teams late in the season.  One thing is apparent however, they may have found themselves a QB after all.  People were scratching their heads when Buffalo left the draft and then free agency without a new QB prospect and GM Buddy Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey continued to reaffirm their confidence in the Amish Rifle (that’s Ryan Fitzpatrick if you didn’t guess by looking at his beard).  I am a lifelong Bills fan and I can’t honestly say that I ever considered Fitz to be a potential QB of the future, but this blazing fast start has me excited to see what he can do.  The Bills’ best hope for a huge upset is Fred Jackson.  He has led Buffalo top ranked rushing attack to an average of 193 yards over the first two games of the season.  If they can control the clock, keep Brady off the field and force a pair of timely turnovers, they just might do the unthinkable.  The probable scenario is that they find themselves playing from behind early, need to abandon the running game and they can’t win a blow for blow shootout with Tom Brady.  I am starting all the usual suspects with reasonably high expectations for a high scoring game.  The loss of Aaron Hernandez will mean an increase in targets for Gronkowski and Welker and I don’t have too high of expectations for the Law Firm or Woodhead because the Bills’ defensive front seven is vastly improved over what it was a season ago.

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Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – If last week was not enough to convince you that DMC is back and playing at an elite level, then hopefully the 123 yards rushing, 86 yards receiving and 3 TDs are enough to confirm in your mind that this guy is a huge part of your playoff hopes.   Don’t get caught with him on your bench as there are still only two games that he started where he did not exceed 100 yards from scrimmage… and one of those was against the Steelers.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – Jackson’s big-play ability and break away speed are unmatched at this time in the NFL.  These skills were on display this week, as Jackson was able to haul in 4 catches for 210 yards and a TD.  Is 52.5 yards per catch good enough for you?  He may not be the most consistent performer, but if you drafted him then you have to start him… wouldn’t want to miss one of these monster performances that can happen any week.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – What impresses me most about this Falcons team is their versatility on offense.  They have a very balanced attack with Pro Bowl talent at WR, QB and RB.  The passing game never seems to run on all cylinders while on the road, but this week Turner carried the team on his back to a victory against the inept Panthers.  Turner racked up 28 carries with 112 yards and 3 rushing TDs.  He is fulfilling the dream he destroyed for fantasy owners last year when injuring himself just in time for the fantasy football playoffs.  Turner owners this year should get Jason Snelling on their team now in case there is a repeat of last season.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – There is something about this Texans team that likes to rally late in games, but unfortunately they are not able to finish games after closing the gap and they lost a heart breaker in OT late last night on a Matt Schaub INT that was run back for a touchdown. Andre Johnson was a beast in their late-game resurgence.  He started with a 42 yard TD grab to finish the first half and added another 8 catches to total 140 yards receiving and 2 scores. Games like this are why AJ was drafted in the first round as the top receiver… but they have been hard to come by this season and it is re-assuring to see it at the start of the playoffs.

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI – We did know that the Broncos were a bad run defense, but we did not know that Hightower would be able to grind out 148 yards and 2 TDs on 18 carries!  With the Panthers 25th ranked rush defense coming up next week and this clear indication that Wells is not going to be seeing extensive work… I think Tim would be an excellent flex play next week and should be in the top 25 at the RB position.

Deion Branch, WR, NE – No matter how good the opponent is, Tom Brady has been tearing them to shreds as of late.  It is a great time to own a Patriot in your fantasy football league as there are tons of catches to go around.  Welker also had a great game, topping 100 yards… but Branch had 151 yards and a TD making him the best receiver from New England this week.  I will still give Welker the edge in my rankings, but Branch is acclimating nicely into his old offense and will move up considerably as long as Brady and the Pats can keep this up.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – We finally saw shades of the talent that made me so excited about this guy in the preseason.  It is too little, too late for most of the fantasy owners who drafted Garcon, but if you were able to replace him and make it into the playoffs… then you’ve gotta start him next week against the Jaguars, who have not been able to cover WRs all season long (they are allowing just over 23 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs).

Jason Witten, TE, DAL – Witten has been among the best and most consistent TEs in the NFL over the past three weeks and with a 69 yard, 2 TD performance this week, he provides a much needed consistency at an injury-riddled position for fantasy owners this season.  Consider him a must-start and feel free to drop any other TEs you may have have on your bench as you need not look any farther to find your starter throughout the playoffs.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Torain saw 24 carries and made the most of them by totaling 172 rushing yards.  Most of this came in the first half, when the Skins were not losing by enough to abandon the running game.  Usually you see a week of mediocre production after sitting out as long as Torain did due to his injury… but at least now we know who the starter will be in Washington for the rest of the way.  Torain should be considered for your flex spot with good, not great, match ups over the next two weeks.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – What happened here? Consider the combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw as the best in the league as both are essentially must-starts going into the fantasy-playoffs.  Jacobs broke off the longest single rush of his career with a 73 yarder to help push the Giants past their nightmarish experience of trying to play their scheduled game this week.  Both teams looked out of sync after the 30 hour delay and I think it is reasonable to expect this type of performance (probably a little worse, given the match ups) for the rest of the season.

Duds

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – Let me tell you a little story about how bad AP killed his fantasy owners this week.  I played my brother this week and going into Monday’s games, he had a 3 point lead with AP still to play… I had Andre Johnson.  The game ended with me as a clear victor, but I thought for sure I would lose.  2 points from the 2nd overall draft pick is simply not enough.  The bad performance can likely be written off as a precaution by the Vikings after AP and Jackson collided on a handoff and both players were banged up on the play.  Anyways, thanks a bunch Adrian!

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF – What is truly surprising about the complete lack of production from Crabtree was how well Alex Smith played in this game.  You would expect Crabtree to be productive when he gets such good play from the signal-caller… but all the catches went to Westbrook,  Morgan and Davis.  Don’t expect him to get shut down like this again, however these inconsistencies are exactly what keep me from raising Crabtree to a starter in my rankings.

Kyle Orton, QB, DEN - The rebuilding process should begin in a hurry after only 166 yards and FOUR TURNOVERS from Orton this week.  He may have been a great post-draft pickup, but he also probably just ended your season early with that performance.  If you benched him, had a bye week, or weren’t in the playoffs yet… don’t get caught dead with Orton in your lineup next week after getting destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals.  Tim Tebow anyone?

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - After watching the Patriots dismantle yet another playoff team in the Bears this week, I am willing to excuse this performance from Cutler.  This is a shining example of why he is not an elite QB though.  The Patriots have a young and easily manipulated secondary and he couldn’t get the job done.  I expected an upset by the Bears in this game, but no one beats Tom Brady when the weather outside is frightful…

Benjamin Watson, TE, CLE – This poor game is inexcusable against Buffalo, who has not effectively been able to stop the opposing TE all year.  I place most of the blame on Jake Delhomme, but Watson is getting downgraded after this performance… even if McCoy is back in time for next week.

Davone Bess, WR, MIA - The Dolphins offense struggled as a whole this week in a tough divisional victory over the Jets.  Bess isn’t a huge factor in standard leagues, but in PPR formats he has been a beast.  You can keep using him given the quality of defense that shut him down.

Terrell Owens, WR, CIN - The Steelers shut down Owens this week with their zone blitzing scheme forcing some poor decision-making out of Carson Palmer.  He will remain in my top 20, but with the whole Bengals team floundering… you shouldn’t consider TO a top 10 guy any longer.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI - One catch on three targets for 11 yards.  The worst game of the season for Maclin came at a terrible time for his fantasy-owners.  Don’t worry too much about playing him next week (if you’re still alive), you have to trust the guys that got you this far… and he sure helped quite a bit I am sure.

Mike Williams, WR, TB - The Redskins defense is pretty bad, especially against the pass and Williams was not a dynamic play maker in this game.  The big plays were made by Arrelious Benn, but don’t worry… you can still start Williams with confidence, it was only one bad game so don’t panic.

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