Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Matt Schaub
5. Tom Brady
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Jay Cutler
9. Kevin Kolb
10. Joe Flacco
11. Brett Favre
12. Eli Manning
13. Matt Ryan
14. Donovan McNabb
15. Ben Roethlisberger
16. Chad Henne
17. Alex Smith
18. Matthew Stafford
19. Vince Young
20. Jason Campbell
21. Carson Palmer
22. Mark Sanchez
23. David Garrard
24. Matt Leinart
25. Matt Cassel
26. Kyle Orton
27. Matt Moore
28. Matt Hasselbeck
29. Josh Freeman
30. Sam Bradford
31. Trent Edwards
32. Jake Delhomme

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The Bears had a pretty bad off season in my opinion, considering they addressed none of their offensive line issues.  It is hard to blame them for this too much as they were without any draft selections in the first two rounds as well as had some pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball.  They did make some big name moves getting Chester Taylor and Julius Peppers, but without an offensive line none of it matters.  They should still see some decent production from their playmakers and I expect a rebound year for just about all of the fantasy relevant Bears.  The popular choice for which receiver will have a breakout year is Aromashodu who has tremendous upside given the chemistry him and Cutler had at the end of last season.  While I do rank him slightly higher than Johnny Knox it is mostly due to Devin’s tremendous potential.  I think Knox is the safer pick and should remain the Bears best and most consistent deep threat.

Top Fantasy Players

Matt Forte – Last year’s biggest bust is bound to fall pretty far in drafts this coming year.  I think he will do ok and could even finish inside the top 20 by the end of the season in the Bears new Mike Martz offense, but without the offensive line issues resolved it won’t be easy.

Jay Cutler – If he is able to curtail the number of interceptions this season his fantasy points will be in the top 10.  It would take effort to throw as many interceptions as he did last year, so should definitely improve on his numbers.  Also, a Mike Martz offense will utilize the strengths of Cutler’s game better so expect to see more touchdowns and yardage too.

Devin Aromashodu – There are no polished pass catchers on this offense and this young guy is the closest thing they’ve got.  He was drafted as a raw physical talent with impressive physical attributes, so the only question was were they able to tame this beast and turn him into the receiver the offense desperately needs.  Personally I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Johnny Knox had the most fantasy points out of Chicago receivers.

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With the first weekend of free agency drawing to a close its time to look at how the moves that have been made so far impact next years Fantasy Football season.  Many big-names have changed teams during this week, and  will shake up next seasons pre-draft rankings quite a bit.  Here are the roster moves made so far during this free agency period that have an impact on fantasy football:

Anquan Boldin traded to Ravens – The biggest move of the free agency period was not a signing, but a trade.  With the addition of Anquan Boldin to the Ravens offense three different players all receive a bump in my rankings; Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin (shocker!), and Ray Rice.  The biggest weakness of the Ravens last year was balance in the passing game.  They have been lacking a serious play-maker at the wide receiver position, and Flacco’s production was hurt the worst by it.  Mason is getting old and may not be back in a Ravens uniform next year, but with the addition of Stallworth and now Boldin the Ravens will finally have two polished receivers that can stretch the field AND get open over the middle.  The impact on Ray Rice will also be significant, with Boldin on the roster the Ravens will have a balanced offensive attack instead of the Ray Rice show that was last season.  Next year he wont be a surprise, people know what he can do now and without a balanced attack he would be vulnerable to being schemed against.  With game-breaking talent at wide-out defenses will need to respect the deep ball and Rice will remain a top tier back.

Antonio Cromartie traded to the Jets – Another trade tops my list of moves made during free agency week, and yes I know it was the day before but its so significant I’m sneaking it in!  This move will solidify the Jets as my #1 Defense for next season barring some unforeseen incident.  While Cromartie  is certainly no Revis, he is a very gifted player filling the area of biggest need for the Jets already number one ranked defense.  Oh, and the Jets were already first in the league in passing defense last year… 30 yards fewer per game than the number two Bills.

Bears sign Chester Taylor – I am really excited to see what Taylor can do outside the shadow of Adrian Peterson… but I do not think we will know his full potential until at least next year.  The Bears have no picks in the first two rounds, and have an offensive line that could use quite a bit of work.  Good news for the Bears however, this is a VERY deep draft class at offensive line and there is a real chance they could find a diamond in the rough.  Taylor is a very complete back and he will likely take over the primary role leaving Forte to handle third downs.

Lions sign Nate Burleson – Calvin Johnson finally has someone that could pull some double teams away from him… ok not quite. However,  Burleson has 7 years of experience and a fair few left in him.  His veteran leadership and experience at being on mediocre teams could go a long way to helping the Lions on the road to average.  And lets face it, with a tough and talented kid like Stafford at the helm they could get there pretty quick.  Burleson will likely see similar production as he had in his disappointing last season, but he could really help Megatron get open a couple more times per game… and that is certainly a good thing.

Bears sign Julius Peppers – The Bears make my list twice since they needed to use the limited free agent pool as their draft, and lets face it… you cant draft the best pass rushing defensive end and that is what the Bears got in Peppers.  The biggest weakness for the Bears defense last year was… well… their offense.  With Cutler throwing such a large number of interceptions as well as the Bears’ inability to extend drives and provide some rest for their defenders, just about every game the defense was worn out by the fourth quarter and unable to stop much of anything.  Hopefully Taylor and Manumaleuna help to extend drives and give those poor guys a break.  If the Bears find a good lineman or two, their defense could be a top5 fantasy defense again soon.

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1. Tom Brady
2. Matt Schaub
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Drew Brees
5. Jay Cutler
6. Alex Smith
7. Philip Rivers
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Tony Romo
10. Joe Flacco
11. Donovan McNabb
12. Brett Favre
13. Matt Ryan
14. Kyle Orton
15. Matt Moore
16. Chad Henne
17. David Garrard
18. Vince Young
19. Peyton Manning
20. Mark Sanchez
21. Kurt Warner
22. Matt Hasselbeck
23. Eli Manning
24. Josh Freeman
25. Carson Palmer
26. Derek Anderson
27. Jason Campbell
28. Matt Cassel
29. Keith Null
30. Charlie Frye
31. Drew Stanton
32. Brian Brohm

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