Question 1: Asked by @E_RICHT5F3LD

There are a ton of options at QB in my league who should I go with? Tebow, Moore, Sanchez, Smith, Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick or Rivers.

Answer

I would have to say that it’s Tebow time!  Unless your league has some goofy scoring, I would take the consistency that Tebow provides.  His rushing ability has made it so that he is able to put up a solid point total every week.  This week he faces off against a tough Bears D but they should be able to wear down Chicago’s defense by keeping their offense off the field.  Without Cutler or Forte to help extend drives and win the field position battle on offense, I don’t see how they are able to bottle up the consistent and punishing run-game of the Broncos.

Question 2: Asked by @JoshVitale

Who do I start at Flex: Plaxico, Benson, D.Moore or K.Smith (if healthy)? Or should I just quit #fantasyfootball?

Answer

Quitters never prosper Josh… Play Benson.  He has a rough match up and while he is probably going to have a mediocre at best week, he is a feature back and therefore will see enough carries to make him worth the start.  We can reasonably expect A.J. Green to force Houston to respect the deep ball and this will open a few running lanes for Benson.  Whether or not he disappoints will come down to whether or not he punches one in but I think you have to play him in the playoffs, where risks tend to back fire.

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Love

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – After starting the season playing very mediocre football, Manning has really stepped it up in recent weeks and helped the Giants hold on to a 2 game lead on the NFC East despite injuries and mistakes. There might not be a team in the league that relies more on their QB to be successful and against a VERY soft Patriots secondary this week, the stats are almost sure to be there for Manning. The Pats have allowed an average of 19 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s which is third worst in the NFL.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – Andy Dalton and the Bengals have won 4 straight and look to continue their winning ways against the Titans this week. Each team is just half a game behind the division leader and will be fighting hard to not give up any more ground. Green has been phenomenal this season as there has been just one game where he has not either scored or been over 100 yards. He earned his spot in the top 10 of my WR rankings this week.

Fred Jackson, RB, NYJ – The Jets have struggled to stop the run this year.  They haven’t allowed a lot of big plays, but opposing teams have had little issue grinding out yards with an interior running game.  There is not a back in the NFL that is hotter than Jackson is and with Revis and company likely to limit opportunities down the field for Fitzmagic, Buffalo will need to rely heavily on Jackson.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – I talked about the soft match-up in the Eli section and would not be surprised to see Cruz as the top receiver for the Giants this week.  Cruz is just going to keep getting better with each passing week and his big-play ability is impossible to deny at this point.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Buffalo is averaging over 30 points per game on offense and has been better at defending against the run this year thanks in large part to Dareus. Rex Ryan and the Jets will NEED to run effectively against the Bills to keep their offense on the sideline. I am confident that Greene will put up some good numbers off the heels of his first 100 yard game since week 7 of his rookie season (2009).

Carson Palmer, QB, OAK – Let’s keep my “Love” of Palmer in perspective. You are not starting him in a standard league unless you are really hurting because of Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford being on bye week.  He isn’t likely to have a huge game here since he is still not in the best of shape and getting acclimated to his new team and offensive scheme. But if you are in a 2 QB league then you can do a LOT worse this week.  Palmer might have McFadden back, which would take a lot of pressure off him and the Broncos are the worst in the NFL at fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Hate

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – This isn’t all because of Revis Island.  Fitzpatrick WILL look to Johnson when he is in man-coverage with Revis and I could see another game very similar to his past two weeks.  The problem is, he hasn’t been producing lately. He hasn’t hit double digit fantasy points in any of his past 4 games.

Joe Flacco, QB, PIT – The Ravens have really been VERY sloppy recently and the Steelers defense seems to have things turned around. Do you trust Flacco against the team that just shut down Tom Brady from start to finish? I don’t. Not when he was pretty bad against the Cardinals last week.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – With Tashard Choice joining the Redskins this week off of waivers, I am staying FAR away from Torain.  Helu is the guy I would play if I had to, but I would do anything you can to just leave all your Redskins on the bench. Apart from Fred Davis.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – I am pretty well sold on Brown at this point.  He is a play maker and a good deep threat. My issue with him is only for this week against the Ravens.  I think Ben will have a very tough time staying upright in this game and I don’t see Brown able to get too much done. He remains a very viable flex play in my rankings though as he has been targeted more than Steve Johnson, AJ Green, Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson this season.

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49ers at Eagles

Well clearly this week is light on the  really good match ups, since Alex Smith’s team is making it into my preview article.  But oddly enough the 9ers sit at 2-1, in first place of their division and the Eagles are currently at 1-2 in last place of theirs. The so-called dream-team has some work to do as they figure out how to work as a team and keep their QB from being battered bruised and broken before the bye week. The Eagles secondary is by far the most talented group in the NFL and yet Eli Manning picked them apart last week and their line-backing corp is a legitimate weak spot that makes them vulnerable to the run.  The 49ers offense however has looked sluggish and down right bad so far despite the winning record.  Their biggest threat, Frank Gore, has been a HUGE disappointment for fantasy owners and even last week the backup Kendall Hunter seemed faster into the holes and seemed to be able to find better creases in the defense.  The only chance the 9ers have to steal a win on the road this week is for Gore to step it up and be the player he has been for the past few years.  If he is able to keep drives alive and be an effective runner, then the 49ers will have a shot.  Their front seven is going to be able to reach Vick plenty in this game as the Eagles have yet to figure out their offensive line issues.   Vick is coming off a concussion and what they thought was a broken non-throwing hand which turned out to be a bruise and if the pressure is getting to him and the 49ers can get a running game clicking, this could become a very close game.  I wouldn’t start any 49ers apart from Vernon Davis and Frank Gore (only out of sheer necessity as he continues to plummet in my ranks with each terrible performance). And you can feel comfortable starting all your Eagles play makers, even if Vick is for some reason not in the lineup they would be OK in this match up. I think the Eagles will prove to be too tough for the 49ers and if Gore continues this slump, it could get ugly.

Lions at Cowboys

Detroit finally appears to have things turned around as they have been an explosive offense over the first three games and are still undefeated as they head down to play the Cowboys in Dallas. If both teams were healthy I would probably take the Cowboys at home but with just one quality receiver to cover, I think the Lions’ offense will lead them to a shocking 4-0 start in what may turn into a shoot out. Tony Romo won’t be as banged up this week as he was in week 3 and I think he is able to connect with Witten and Bryant quite a bit. You will want to start all of your fantasy players in this game as I don’t think either secondary matches up well against the quality of the passing attacks in this game.  Jahvid Best’s value will continue to depend on his receiving ability and the big play and he remains, in my eyes, the best flex play available. Calvin Johnson and his two TDs in every single game has become the top fantasy WR in the NFL and Matthew Stafford even cracked my top 5 at QB. Look for the Lions to win a nail biter here and for everyone to have a good statistical performance in a high scoring game.

Jets at Ravens

I do not like this match up for the Jets. This new look, pass-first, Jets offense is not as impressive to me as the ground and pound attack that has taken them to two consecutive AFC championship games.  This should be a close game, but I definitely think that the Ravens are able to force turnovers and keep Sanchez in check throughout this game.  I am looking for the Ravens to use Ray Rice to expose the weakness of the Jets Defense… stopping the run. I would not expect to see a big game from ANY receivers or QBs in this game and would look to find a serviceable replacement for both Sanchez and Flacco if you’ve been using them thus far. Santonio Holmes is the one guy that is probably worth a flex start as he is just the one that is most likely to pull off a big play. I think these teams are definitely both playoff teams, but this could get ugly for the Jets.  Sit everyone not named Ray Rice and brace yourselves for a one-sided Ravens victory, Jets fans.

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It’s that time folks.  The regular season is upon us and my Player Rankings for Week 1 have been released.  I hope you are all as excited as I am and good luck to you all this season!

Love

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Charles is a guy that I believe in and as Thomas Jones ages, Charles’ carries will go up.  The Bills allowed an abysmal 169.6 yards per game, which was the worst in the league.  They did draft Marcell Dareus to help fix this problem but with a shortened off-season due to the lockout, the immediate impact of Dareus will be lessened.  Charles is among the best young RB talent in the NFL and you have to like his chances to break a big play or two against such a mediocre at best run defense.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – The Chargers were one of the teams that managed to put together a decent off season program without the help of their coaching staff or management during the lockout. Also, there wasn’t too much turn-over from last season to this season as far as the offense is concerned.  This all adds up to an uncharacteristic fast-start for Norv Turner, Philip Rivers and the Chargers in my opinion.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Denver is not just Oakland’s week one opponent, they were also last season’s 2nd worst rush defense.  This isn’t really about match-up either. McFadden averaged 128 yards per game in all-purpose yards last season and is, until further notice, a must-start in my opinion.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I’ve been pretty open about my love for Britt for a while now and with no suspension and a weak opposing secondary in week 1, Britt is a must-start in my opinion.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – You may be surprised to see ME put this guy on my love list, because I was not big on him going into the draft.  My concern with Hillis has always been about durability and the fact that Montario Hardesty is more talented than Hillis and below him on the depth chart.  I think that at some point this season, Hillis misses a game and Hardesty is someone I think will be able to take advantage of the playing time and win the starting role. Until then, Hillis is a great RB 2 and especially against a team led by a rookie QB (Cincinnati).

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Freeman and the Buccs lost to the Lions at home last season and it cost them a playoff spot.  You think they want revenge? Because I’ll bet they are pretty pumped to start the season off with a W in such a meaningful way.  The Lions bolstered their defensive front this offseason while not addressing their porous secondary.  I expect Freeman to look deep a few times in this game and a tough week 1 for LeGarrette Blount if the Buccs can’t move the ball in the air.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – Let’s not mistake this for some crazy Kerry Collins love.  This is about the Texans secondary being almost the worst in NFL history last season and having to adjust to a new system ran by Wade Phillips.  Wayne is a very consistent and complete receiver and he is who Collins will trust on third downs.  He just barely cracks my top 20, but that makes him a starter.  Don’t let the lack of Peyton scare you into benching him.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – I wouldn’t have drafted him as my RB2, but injuries are the concern here and a healthy Beanie Wells should have a good day against the Panthers in week 1.  Cam Newton is not likely to start too smoothly in his first regular season NFL start without a short off-season and it’s very possibly that this is an ugly game for Carolina fans.  I expect the Cardinals to lead-off with a heavy rushing attack to ease new QB Kevin Kolb into a routine and comfort level too.

Hate

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – A lot of people reached for Julio Jones on draft day because of the absurd combine performance he had and how much the Falcons gave up to draft him.  What they don’t realize is the complexity of the Falcons offense as well as the lockout will severely limit the plays that Jones will be on the field for.  He will spend a  lot of time running deep routes to attract safety help out of respect for his speed and he will do a much better job of opening up passing lanes for Roddy White than anything else.  Look for Jones to start slow and slowly become a viable flex play.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – You are in trouble this week if you drafted Flacco as a starter or maybe as your backup to Peyton.  Flacco faces the division rival Steelers and after what I saw them do to Vick in the preseason, the focus will likely be on grinding out Ray Rice and the running game.  Flacco could have troubles breaking double digit points in this game.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – Bowe had a great season last year and there is little chance he can repeat those numbers.  He played the Bills last year and was held to just 16 yards on his 3 catches.  Fantasy owners barely noticed this lack luster performance because a very short TD catch was involved and he ended up not ruining anyone’s week.  Don’t expect Bowe to be anything more than a good WR2 and you won’t get burned.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SF – Lynch made for an interesting draft selection this year with top 20 potential.  But let’s make him prove he can live up to it before we risk a roster spot for him yet.  He faces a stout 49er line-backing corp led by Patrick Willis and Lynch is too inconsistent for my liking at the moment.

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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