The season is finally upon us and the Kickoff game on Thursday will be a great start, tune in.  While there are no shortage of great match ups this week I will get more into that later and go straight into the first Love and Hate lists of the 2010 season.

Love

Jerome Harrison (CLE) – Montario Hardesty’s injury increased the number of touches Harrison will see.  With a lot of carries and a bad opposing defense last season he finished the season strong enough to propel the BROWNS to a 4 game winning streak.

Ronnie Brown (MIA) – The Bills run defense was 30th in the league last year and the 4-3 is geared towards stopping the run.  The transition that Kelsay and Maybin are trying to make takes time.  There will be rough spots and while you may think Brown wont stay healthy all season… he is now.

Matt Forte (CHI) – The Lions are making strides to improve their franchise but on defense they still have plenty of work to do.  They are vulnerable to allowing big plays and this suits the Bears’ new offensive style very well.

Johnny Knox (CHI) – See Matt Forte.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – Derek Anderson brings a consistency to the offense that Leinart could not provide.  The upside is lower, because we know what Anderson can do and I do not expect him to come close to his one good year in ’07.

Michael Crabtree (SF) – He is one of the guys that I really think is going to come into his own this season.  I know some people are nervous because of the incident with Vernon Davis in camp, but I am not.  This guy is a play maker on game day. Since when does fantasy football worry too much about a wide receiver with an attitude problem?

Felix Jones (DAL) – The love for Felix Jones has gone a little too far in my opinion because there is absolutely no chance that we get 16 games out of him this season.  Swelling in his knee on the 2nd day of training camp is not what you want to see from your new lead running back.  He’s fine now and has the ability to break a big gain anytime you put the ball in his hands.

Philip Rivers (SD) – The Chiefs have weapons on offense but their defense has plenty of gaps in the secondary.  Rivers will be spreading the ball around and should be able to move the ball very effectively throughout the game.

Antonio Gates (SD) – see Philip Rivers.

Hate

Pierre Thomas (NO) – The stock on him rose w hen Ladell Betts was cut, he should see the goal line work.  Against this defense his rushing yards will be low, so unless he breaks a big gain in the receiving game his numbers will be modest at best.

Fred Jackson (BUF) – Gailey will likely lean on Lynch and Spiller a bit more this week to allow Jackson to get back to 100%, he will be fine come week 2 though.

Kevin Kolb (PHI) – If Reid is not willing to lean on the running game until Kolb gets in a rhythm this ball hawking secondary could cause some problems in Kolb’s first outing as the team’s leader.  I don’t see him having a huge game this week, I do not have too many concerns down the stretch however.

Shonn Greene (NYJ) – The Jets love to run the ball, but they won’t win this game that way.  This is going to be a slug fest and a field position battle and could be a preview of the AFC Championship game, unless Peyton Manning has his way.

Anquan Boldin (BAL) – Have you met Darrelle Revis? Nope, he used to be busy with Larry.  This is a cruel first test as a number one WR.

Justin Forsett (SEA) – Patrick Willis and the 49ers will be starting off with a win at the expense of Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle offense.

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This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

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Well, week 3 of the preseason is where we get the best look at the fantasy players from each team (if healthy) before the season.  And while many people don’t like to use the preseason to impact their rankings, I feel this week is one of the best indicators you can find before your draft.

Packers vs. Colts

Well this was a hell of a game to watch.  You usually don’t get to see quite so many sparks fly in the preseason, but with these two high powered offenses playing for around 3 quarters… It was bound to be a fun one to see.  Since all the insanity with Favre and now Sidney Rice being out half the year I have to think the Packers are now the favorite to win their division.  Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate so far, and Jennings has been much more active in the passing game than last year. He (Jennings) could rack up 1400 yards and 10 TDs no problem this year.

As for the Colts, no need to be concerned.  They had some rough spots caused by, what seemed to me, deliberately pushing the limits of the new ball spotting system.  I hope that the Reggie Wayne doubters have been paying attention, because I think he has had a VERY strong preseason and he will remain my number 3 WR.  Garcon has done a good job separating himself from Collie and Gonzalez and in doing so he earned a bump in my rankings.  Also I am starting to have some concerns about Addai.  He is in a contract year, and the Colts drafted Donald Brown for a reason.  I think if Addai misses just one game he will lose his job permanently to Brown.  The Colts will not want to pay to re-sign a back in his decline.

Cowboys vs. Texans

It is no surprise that the offensive line is the biggest area of concern for the Cowboys offense this year, but even so, Romo spent too much time on his back this week.  If they play this poorly during the season Romo will not be able to stay healthy.  Austin and Witten will maintain their production through these issues, but I am concerned for Felix Jones who seems to get injured a lot as is.

Arian Foster became the first Houston Texan to break 100 yards rushing in a preseason game this week and moved up quite a bit in my ranks as it is becoming clear he will see the vast majority of the carries.  Seeing Slaton back to return kicks shows that they don’t intend to use him like they used to by any means.  Jacoby Jones also had a strong showing in this game, helping his cause for becoming the #2 guy over Kevin Walter.

Bears vs. Cardinals

So far this preseason we really hadn’t seen a glimpse of last year’s Jay Cutler, until this week that is.  The bottom line is with this guy, is he is a gunslinger that makes some bad choices.  You need to expect around 20 interceptions from Cutler this year but you can also expect 30 TDs and around 4,000 yards.  Johnny Knox and Chester Taylor both looked very strong in this game as well but I don’t quite give anyone a bump in the rankings.

Oh Arizona… I thought you were finally going to be a good team, but now there are rumors flying around about them trading away Matt Leinart or cutting him altogether.  It is definitely time to downgrade all the Cardinals in our rankings. Beanie Wells can’t be productive in an inconsistent offense that can’t convert on third downs and between the injury and the QB situation I am afraid that Fitzgerald will have a very bad season (at least by his standards).  Tim Hightower is falling too far in the drafts that I have seen, he will still be their third down guy and if he is hot they will certainly not be afraid to let him get some carries.

Chiefs vs Eagles

First thing first, Jamaal Charles is fine, no worries for fantasy owners here.  He is not supposed to miss any time in the regular season.  After he left the game Thomas Jones did a great job filling in for him, but I still think he will be inconsistent behind a worse offensive line and might actually be more productive as the number 2 with fewer carries and hits taken.  It was good to see Dwayne Bowe get involved a bit more too, he remains a sleeper of mine for the middle rounds.

I remain convinced that the success of the Eagles offense hinges on DeSean Jackson.  So, it was not much of a surprise to me that they did not do well without him after he left very early.  As with Charles, no concern here for fantasy owners… he will be back by week 1.  LeSean McCoy ran well, but did not see a lot of carries.  No adjustments to my rankings for any of these guys.

Other Notable Performances

LaDainian Tomlinson – Gotta start calling him a sleeper.  Watching Hard Knocks may be tainting my reaction here, but I just keep hearing Rex Ryan say “I love being right”.

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush

Joe Flacco

Frank Gore

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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The Bears had a pretty bad off season in my opinion, considering they addressed none of their offensive line issues.  It is hard to blame them for this too much as they were without any draft selections in the first two rounds as well as had some pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball.  They did make some big name moves getting Chester Taylor and Julius Peppers, but without an offensive line none of it matters.  They should still see some decent production from their playmakers and I expect a rebound year for just about all of the fantasy relevant Bears.  The popular choice for which receiver will have a breakout year is Aromashodu who has tremendous upside given the chemistry him and Cutler had at the end of last season.  While I do rank him slightly higher than Johnny Knox it is mostly due to Devin’s tremendous potential.  I think Knox is the safer pick and should remain the Bears best and most consistent deep threat.

Top Fantasy Players

Matt Forte – Last year’s biggest bust is bound to fall pretty far in drafts this coming year.  I think he will do ok and could even finish inside the top 20 by the end of the season in the Bears new Mike Martz offense, but without the offensive line issues resolved it won’t be easy.

Jay Cutler – If he is able to curtail the number of interceptions this season his fantasy points will be in the top 10.  It would take effort to throw as many interceptions as he did last year, so should definitely improve on his numbers.  Also, a Mike Martz offense will utilize the strengths of Cutler’s game better so expect to see more touchdowns and yardage too.

Devin Aromashodu – There are no polished pass catchers on this offense and this young guy is the closest thing they’ve got.  He was drafted as a raw physical talent with impressive physical attributes, so the only question was were they able to tame this beast and turn him into the receiver the offense desperately needs.  Personally I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Johnny Knox had the most fantasy points out of Chicago receivers.

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