Love

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is averaging 20 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks against pretty good match-ups.  Speaking of good match-ups… The Broncos play against the Browns and the Chiefs to close out the season.  Cleveland this week and considering Joe Haden can actually cause some problems for opponents, I look for Denver to give the Browns a heavy helping of the run game.  He has a pretty good chance for 100 yards and a score here but he is only listed as an RB2 in my rankings because we haven’t seen enough tape for me to be too confident yet.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots aren’t playing for a whole lot this week but come on… Brady vs the Jags? That’s a pretty great match-up for your Super Bowl week!  Welker is going to be free to roam around the line of scrimmage all game and Brady is going to use him to pick the defense apart.  I like Lloyd a lot too as a really good flex option but Welker is a must-start in almost any imaginable circumstance.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – I hate to say it but for fantasy purposes, Romo has actually been decent.  If you were able to get two serviceable Quarterbacks and did a good job of deciding which to play, you could easily be in the Super Bowl right now.  If Romo is one of those guys, he is your choice this weekend against a soft Saints defense.  Hopefully Dez Bryant isn’t affected as severely by his finger injury but he was still a quality play for fantasy owners even with visible signs of pain.  The Cowboys are also benefiting from the work of DeMarco Murray once again and Romo is most effective in the play-action passing situations.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Morris is a beast.  Last week, with Kirk Cousins at QB and the defense knowing that he was going to be a huge factor, he still got it done with 20 fantasy points.  RG3 is going to play this week and Philly, who is already weak to the run, will not even be able to bring an 8th man into the box very often.  Bottom line is that, in the Playoffs, you NEED consistency at every position and Morris is as close to a sure-thing as it gets for 100 yards rushing for players not named Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – James Jones may lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns but he isn’t even close to the lead in targets or receptions on his own team.  Scores are fluky and not easy to do with consistency.  Cobb is a FAR safer option this week and Jones is more of a flex-option.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – There can’t be many of you left in the Super Bowl if you own this guy but maybe you capitalized on Alfred Morris and didn’t use CJ much until late in the season.  Either way, if you’ve got him, you may have to start him but try not to.  His value is almost entirely in the one big play he has been getting more often than not.  If he doesn’t get that play, he won’t have more than 5 points and you can’t take that chance.  Not with as bad as his o-line is, especially.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – It’s a shame that the team is in disarray right now because this should be a really nice match-up.  Now it’s a complete crap-shoot because given how poor the entire team played last week, Coughlin could potentially do anything with his running backs this week.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Steer clear of Freeman this week against the Rams.  They are no slouch on defense and after the entire team imploded last week, if your still alive, you wan’t to stay away from them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have no choice but to play him in a Super Bowl match-up this week and I am really nervous about it.  Like I just said, this team is a mess and while they have a really good chance of rebounding VERY strong and blowing up the scoreboard, it’s a gamble and as I’ve said a thousand times so far this post-season… this is not the time for a gamble.

Anotonio Brown, WR, PIT – I loved seeing him rebound last week too but you CAN NOT forget how bad he was for the entire rest of the season, before his injury.  WAY too risky.

No Comments »

2 Comments »

No Comments »

Over the past 4 weeks, Chris Givens has not scored fewer than 8 fantasy points.

Over that same time frame, Brandon Gibson has only one game with 8 or more fantasy points.

Chris Givens is owned in just 2.9% of fantasy leagues and Gibson is owned in almost 40%.

This makes ZERO sense.

Antonio Brown and his one TD is viewed as a disappointment by almost all of his fantasy owners.

Brown has NEVER had more than 2 TDs in a season.

His value comes from receptions, yardage and number of passing attempts by the Steelers.

If you expected Brown to be over 5 TDs by now, you are crazy.

There is no need to panic on Brown, he remains a low-end WR2/really good WR3.

There have been six teams in the past four weeks that have totaled over 100 yards rushing on Thursday night football.

Two of them were facing the Seahawks and the 49ers (same game), two VERY stout rush defenses.

Defenses are not performing up to par on a short week’s worth of rest.

Start your running backs on Thursday night.

Josh Freeman has scored no fewer than 28 fantasy points in the past 3 weeks.

Freeman plays against Oakland, San Diego and Carolina in the next three weeks, none of which are scary match-ups.

Freeman is a border-line top 10 QB until he stops producing like one.

Michael Bush has not scored a TD since week 2.

Bush has not seen double digit touches since week 3.

He has not tallied more than 55 yards rushing all season.

Michael Bush is nothing more than a handcuff to Matt Forte.

Cam Newton has only had 2 games over 20 fantasy points.

Newton also has 2 games under 10 fantasy points.

Cam Newton is no longer a top 10 QB.

Reggie Bush has FOUR games of six or fewer fantasy points

Daniel Thomas received more carries last week than Reggie Bush.

I am VERY concerned about Bush’s fantasy value going forward.

You still have to start Bush as your RB#2.

Josh Gordon FINALLY had a game without a TD this month.

Gordon is almost exclusively a “big play threat”.

The weather was pretty crumby for last week’s game.

Gordon was still targeted 5 times in week 8.

I will not downgrade Gordon because of last week’s four fantasy point performance.

No Comments »

We kick off our draft coverage by taking a look at the Quarterbacks. The position is undergoing a metamorphosis in the NFL right now and this forces us fantasy-owners to make adjustments or suffer the consequences on draft day. Prior to last season just two QB’s in the NFL’s history had ever thrown for 5,000 yards passing in a single season (Dan Marino with 5084 yards in 1984 and Drew Brees with 5069 yards in 2008). Last season there were THREE 5,000 yard passers (5476 yards for Drew Brees, 5235 yards for Tom Brady and 5,038 for Matthew Stafford).  It is also worth noting that Aaron Rodgers would have joined this club as well had he played Week 17 and gotten the yardage total that backup Matt Flynn had in that game and Eli Manning was just 67 yards shy of the 5000 yard milestone.  WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR!? Nothing too surprising actually. You shouldn’t be surprised to hear that the NFL is moving to a pass-first league and that teams are paying more than ever to retain the franchise quarterback as well as to develop the wide receiver talent around them.

The Top Three

Rodgers, Brady and Brees have essentially established a new tier for Quarterbacks in fantasy football.  The “second tier” of QB’s for this coming season are every bit as valuable on draft day that the “top tier” was at last year.  It is because of this that I am now advocating 3 QB’s being taken in the first 5 picks of EVERY draft, regardless of scoring.  That means that I am saying that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should go #1 and #2 in every single draft with it also being unacceptable for Brees, even with the turmoil in New Orleans, to be taken after anyone but my top two Running Backs (Rice and Foster) Here is my reasoning; First round picks are SUPER DANGEROUS!  The first round is never where I want to reach for a player that I am personally very high on, despite no track record of consistent production.  Many people will tell you, and I am one of them, that you can not win your league in the first round… only lose it. These three QB’s are the guys with the longest track record of consistent, elite-level production.

Rodgers has seemingly perfected the art of Quarterbacking over the past two seasons and in 2011, he never once tallied single digit fantasy points and the only time he was below 20 was in week 14 vs Oakland (17 points).  It is also worth noting that despite playing just 16 games and not making the 5000 yard club, he was still the highest scoring player in the NFL for fantasy owners due to his rushing statistics and just six interceptions on the year (Brees had 14 and Brady 12).

Brady is definitely below Rodgers in my book but it isn’t by much at all.  Brady has Josh McDaniels back as his offensive coordinator and when these two were together previously, Brady set numerous records. McDaniels brought Brandon Lloyd with him after the two apparently developed a significant bond during their time together in Denver and St. Louis.  Lloyd is the best deep threat Brady will have had to throw to since the departure of Randy Moss and because of that, his upside hasn’t been higher in a long time.

Brees falls down in my rankings because of bountygate taking the primary play-caller off the team for the year and the impact that simply moving him up to the coaches box had last season when Sean Peyton got injured.  He still has Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston though so I am happy to leave him in the top 3.

The Starting QB’s

Spots 4 through 12 on my rankings are the rest of the guys that will be used as a “starting QB” in almost every league. They are as follows:

Matthew Stafford has had just one full season of elite numbers so he remains a late first round pick at best in my book.  I’m not super concerned with injuries going forward with him but I could certainly see a scenario where the Lions take a step backward this season and his numbers dip some.

Michael Vick would be an elite guy if I could see much of a scenario where he played 16 games but, I can barely even imagine it.  You can expect plenty of great weeks from Vick but I can’t take a QB in the first round who has so much risk to not start for me in the playoffs.

Eli had 20 turnovers eating away at his fantasy point totals last season and I have concerns about whether or not he can repeat his yardage totals, even with such a talented WR duo.

Cam Newton is a bit of an anomaly as a rushing QB. Typically we can’t rely on rushing TD’s to repeat but the difference here is that Newton actually gets these plays CALLED for him to run on the goal line and that will continue.  You should expect his rushing stats to dip after the Panthers added Mike Tolbert, another solid back who is especially effective in the red zone.  There is also likely to be a lot more passing attempts on the goal line however because Tolbert is a very effective target in the passing game as well.

Peyton Manning has always been an “elite performer” but after a year off, he is pretty likely to have a slow start on a new offense. Manning is also historically not quite the same guy outdoors and the Broncos play just one game inside a dome and that is in Arizona in Week 4.

I think that if you get stuck in a spot without one of the top 3 guys, there aren’t many safer bets than Romo.  With DeMarco Murray giving the Cowboys a rushing attack and the talent that the Cowboys have at receiver, Romo should do just fine statistically this year. I could easily see him over 4,500 yards this season.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense appears to be migrating to the pass-first style of the rest of the NFL. Michael Turner has not churned out the production that Atlanta signed up for and with Julio Jones proving to be a serious threat in the passing game late last season, they will almost certainly be airing the ball out a lot more from here on out.  I’m not 100% that Ryan can handle this style of offense and put up top 5 numbers so he comes in at #10 in my rankings.

Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert were two of Rivers’ top targets over the past couple of seasons but last year they were both pretty inconsistent as far as drops are concerned. Now they aren’t on the team and Rivers’ value will be determined by the chemistry he can develop with his new receiving corps.  Vincent Brown has a very promising rookie campaign and is looking to fill the void that VJax left behind with Malcom Floyd and new acquisition Robert Meachem.

Ben Roethlisberger will remain a big-play machine but consistency is a big problem and so is health.  Only one QB who is currently on an NFL team has been sacked more than Ben and that is Matt Hasselbeck, who we can all agree is a fair bit older than Ben and yet he has only been sacked 14 additional times.

The Best Backups

The end of my QB rankings is a little different than most that I have seen and is as follows:

Clearly I have no love for RG3 as he is at 23rd in my rankings.  He has some value as a backup in the event that you do not get one of the elite guys this season because there is an outside chance that he has a Cam Newton-esque rookie campaign and winds up being a top 10 guy anyways.  I however, cannot let this tiny chance force me to spend very much at all for him on draft day and since SOMEONE is going to reach on him, I won’t be owning the Redskins’ new Quarterback at all this season.

Jay Cutler has by far the most potential among this group, with Brandon Marshall rejoining him in a new place this time.  Cutler will be quick to get back into rhythm with his old favorite target and Marshall is immediately the most talented receiver on the Bears offense.  Forte still provides a dynamic and unique threat that offensive coordinator Mike Martz has had a lot of success utilizing thus far.  I expect the Bears offense to take a big step forward and would love to have Cutler as my #2 guy for the 2012 season.

It is a little weird to list Schaub as a back up but after his late-season injury and the continual injuries of Andre Johnson, the Texans are sure to lean heavy on their VERY successful running game. Schaub is also sure to be limited in his movement capabilities and he also may have some minor pain issues early in the year.

If you have an elite guy on your roster, then I think you should target Carson Palmer as your backup.  You can probably scoop him up at the very end of your draft and I think he has a serious shot at being a top 15 fantasy QB for the second half of the season.  Expect a slow start and hold him on your roster unless you get ravaged by an injury and he hasn’t turned it on yet. But take a look at his numbers over the 2nd half of last season,

No Comments »

Dallas Clark, TE, IND – Active

Billy Cundiff, K, BAL – Active

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Active

Kyle Orton, QB, KC – Inactive

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Active

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – Inactive

Christian Ponder, QB, MIN – Active

Kevin Walker, WR, HOU – Active

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Inactive

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – Active

No Comments »

Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Active

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Inactive

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – Active

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – Active

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Active

Sebastian Janikowski, K, OAK – Active

No Comments »

Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Teams have been beating up on the Rams all season with a punishing rushing game. Gore has yet to play against them yet this year but I have little doubt that he is able to end his slump this week.  The Rams are allowing an average of 159 yards per game to opposing running backs and while Kendall Hunter is bound to see a fair few carries as well, Gore is just about a lock for 100 yards.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – The Buccaneers are not as well-rounded as they were last year and Freeman has certainly been a part of the problem.  Fortunately, the Panthers defense fixes a lot of issues.  You should start all your typical Buccaneers in this game because Carolina can neither stop the run or the pass. If you need convincing, take a look at the stats the Colts had on offense last week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – All the attention is on Cruz lately and Nicks has been very underwhelming this season but I think Nicks is the one due for a huge game. Green Bay is going to win, I am pretty damned sure of it but the Packers have the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and I still trust Nicks more than Cruz.  He is a superior red zone target and when it counts, Eli will look his way.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Law Firm has been a very inconsistent player this season and he isn’t totally to blame.  Three backs other than Green-Ellis saw at least 4 carries in the game last week for the Patriots and while Law Firm was by and far the leader with 14, it is incredibly frustrating to see as a Law Firm owner. Don’t sweat it this week against the Colts who can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – The Texans are going to have to dig deep to pull off a win against Atlanta this week.  I am not crazy about Johnson this week but Atlanta has a lights-out run defense and eventually, TJ Yates or not, the Texans will have to go to the air.  The only thing that will keep Johnson from producing is opportunity so if he can get a few targets, he will do something with them. I think AJ is a solid WR2 this week.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – The Bills were actually competitive again and Fitz played really well against that Jets D. I’m not sold yet.  The injury report for Buffalo is a mile long and I don’t see them as a high-powered offense without Fred Jackson in the lineup. Make Fitzpatrick do it one more time before you take a gamble and start him with your season on the line.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Hanie played bad on Sunday and while I expect him to improve, I have no reason to expect Knox to put up near the same numbers.  Watching the game last week showed that Knox was on fire and clearly the Bears’ best playmaker but after such a disappointing season I want to see him do it a couple of times before I start to buy in to it. Leave him on the bench.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – The Texans offense essentially runs through Foster and Tate now but the Falcons have absolutely been shutting down opposing running backs.  You have to start Foster regardless this week but I think he is going to be hard pressed to manage over a hundred yards. Lower expectations and hope for the best this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings really made an effort to get the ball in the hands of Harvin with Peterson sidelined.  Unfortunately the Broncos defense has been playing great in recent weeks and Harvin is not very likely to have a repeat performance.  His speed and skill in the open field mean that you should be starting him in your flex spot anyways but I don’t expect a lot of open space in this game.

No Comments »

Texans at Titans

Houston failed to run away with the division as I had thought they would and Tennessee actually sits in first at 3-2 with the Texans at 3-3.  The Titans got off to a VERY fast start when Kenny Britt was healthy and even with VERY limited production from Chris Johnson over the first three weeks. Johnson HAS had 12 fantasy points in two consecutive games to start to recoup some of his value but with where you drafted him and the size of his contract, I think we ALL can agree that one 100 yard rushing game is not good enough. Both defenses here are allowing just over 100 yards on the ground per game and I think that the Tate and Foster combo will prove to be too much for Tennessee to deal with.  Matt Schaub is listed as Questionable at the moment but assuming he plays, I like the Titans to win this game handily. I think Chris Johnson and Arian Foster are must starts this week, as per the usual. And Nate Washington and Jacoby Jones are viable plug-in guys for an owner in Bye week hell.  In deeper formats Hasselbeck might be OK, but this Texans secondary is legitimate under Wade Phillips and you should look elsewhere if possible.

Chargers at Jets

With the Chargers’ record being this good, this early and the fact that the Jets have gone to two straight AFC championship games… I could see this being a preview of the AFC Championship game.  One thing needs to happen in order for us to get to that point though; The Jets need to play a LOT better. Both on offense and defense, the Jets are not the team I thought they would be and it all starts with the running game. The recipe for playoff success is simple; Run the ball and stop the run. Obviously you need to be able to stretch the field vertically to compete with the Drew Brees’, Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s of the world, but nothing shuts these elite QBs down like a lot of time on the sideline. This is exactly why the Chargers are going to win this game and I am not convinced it will be close.  The Chargers are healthy on offense again with Antonio Gates looking to rejoin the list of Rivers’ targets on offense and the Bye week helped Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert get back into playing shape.  With two backs that are more productive than Shonn Greene and the Jets defense appearing unable to contain the running game, I think that we will see very limited fantasy production from all of your New York Jets.  The one guy I do want to start from New York is Santonio Holmes because of junk-time stats after the Chargers have already run away with it. Bye weeks might force you to use Greene, but I feel like you are hoping for a goal line carry or two here so that you can at least get a TD out of him. I think Mathews and Gates are in for big games for San Diego, but don’t expect too much from VJax and Rivers despite the fact that your going to be playing them.

Bears at Buccaneers

This game, if you didn’t know, is being played at Wembley Stadium in London. Tampa has made this trip to play in London and they learned a thing or two the last time they did it. Don’t travel to London late in the week and face jet lag as well as your opponent… Tampa has been in London since Monday and holding practices in England all week. Chicago waited until today to make the trip and as a result, I think Tampa Bay has a serious advantage in this game.  You couldn’t make me bench Matt Forte at all this season but since Cutler and his receivers are risky under ideal circumstances, just leave them on the bench this week. Mike Williams clings to a top 20 spot in the rankings despite his hugely disappointing season thus far, but if this advantage holds true, one step is all a receiver needs to beat coverage deep and Freeman is still more than good enough to to recoup his fantasy value.  Earnest Graham is worth a play to fill-in for a bye week despite the weak match-up should Blount sit and it looks like he will. You shouldn’t look to this game for any deep or sneaky plays, but you should see solid outings from the guys that you have been counting on all year long.  I think Tampa gets the win as the “home team” and stays on top of their division.

No Comments »

Studs

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – I don’t think anyone was happier to hear about Kyle Williams being  inactive this week than Bradshaw, who had his first 100 yard rushing performance of the year. Oh and three TDs to boot.  Bradshaw was the top scoring fantasy player for week 6 and remains a top 10 RB for me down the stretch. But when Jacobs comes back, I see little chance of THIS big of a performance again this season.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – People forget just how good Colston is because of how Drew Brees spreads the ball around.  I am still a little worried about Colston because of the extra work that Jimmy Graham has been seeing, but Colston is just about the best flex option you could possibly have and it would be difficult to sit him down in my opinion.  Marques had 7 grabs for 118 yards and a TD on 11 targets. Brees did not forget about him.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Turner really lived up to my expectations this week. With Carolina having a very banged-up line backing corp, I really expected Atlanta to attack on the ground. They did not disappoint as Turner racked up 139 yards on 27 carries and he scored twice. Of all the teams to not quite look like what they were last year, Atlanta worries me the least. They are going to be a playoff contender and the only player REALLY under performing as of late is Roddy White.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Freeman finally had a good game! But one is not enough for me. I need to see Freeman get over 300 yards with mutliple TD’s again next week before I think too highly of him.  I would also like to see him able to get Mike Williams involved in the vertical passing game again soon. Williams did have 59 yards on a team-high 6 catches this week, but I want to see him back involved in the big-play again too or this offense will struggle again down the stretch.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – I have a feeling that if you drafted this guy, you are doing pretty darn well so far this season in your league.  Win or lose, Freddie Jackson seems to have a great statistical output.  This week against the Giants was no exception. After this game Jackson sits at #2 in the NFL in total yards rushing, #3 in total yards from scrimmage AND #1 in fantasy points among RBs. There are not many RB’s making more of a splash in the passing game and you simply cannot be caught dead with Jackson on your bench at this point.  Well… except this week since he is on bye.

Devin Hester, WR, CHI – Unless your league counts return yards, you really shouldn’t be too worried about going and picking up Hester. He has been a starting receiver for a couple of years now and has not been able to produce with any regularity. With that said, he single-handedly beat the Vikings on Sunday night with his TD catch and return TD. He is definitely ownable in 14 team (or more leagues) as well as leagues that do in fact count return yards… but my guess is he isn’t available in these leagues anyways. Keep him on your bench folks.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – What more can you say about the 49ers?! 5-1 is a VERY impressive start for a team, despite how terrible the rest of the NFC West might be.  Gore started the season really slow in the first two weeks, but now has three consecutive 100+ yard games and is living up to the preseason rank I gave him of #5 overall.

Duds

Roddy White, WR, ATL – White has been very underwhelming this season and he will remain a top 10 option on talent alone but he will continue to fall in my ranks with each mediocre performance.

Vernon Davis, TE, SF – I am surprised that the 9ers are being so efficient on offense without involving Davis more often. He remains one of the most talented TEs in football and as long as the team is winning, I am going to recommend that you start him.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – The Redskins did terrible this week and while it was mostly Rex Grossman’s fault, none of the three RB’s did anything to help out.  Torain was my favorite to see the most work and he only put up two points.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – The Packers are clicking on all cylinders and Aaron Rodgers has no shortage of targets to throw to. Finley will be fine and is one of the top TE’s for fantasy owners.

No Comments »