Love

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is averaging 20 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks against pretty good match-ups.  Speaking of good match-ups… The Broncos play against the Browns and the Chiefs to close out the season.  Cleveland this week and considering Joe Haden can actually cause some problems for opponents, I look for Denver to give the Browns a heavy helping of the run game.  He has a pretty good chance for 100 yards and a score here but he is only listed as an RB2 in my rankings because we haven’t seen enough tape for me to be too confident yet.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots aren’t playing for a whole lot this week but come on… Brady vs the Jags? That’s a pretty great match-up for your Super Bowl week!  Welker is going to be free to roam around the line of scrimmage all game and Brady is going to use him to pick the defense apart.  I like Lloyd a lot too as a really good flex option but Welker is a must-start in almost any imaginable circumstance.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – I hate to say it but for fantasy purposes, Romo has actually been decent.  If you were able to get two serviceable Quarterbacks and did a good job of deciding which to play, you could easily be in the Super Bowl right now.  If Romo is one of those guys, he is your choice this weekend against a soft Saints defense.  Hopefully Dez Bryant isn’t affected as severely by his finger injury but he was still a quality play for fantasy owners even with visible signs of pain.  The Cowboys are also benefiting from the work of DeMarco Murray once again and Romo is most effective in the play-action passing situations.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Morris is a beast.  Last week, with Kirk Cousins at QB and the defense knowing that he was going to be a huge factor, he still got it done with 20 fantasy points.  RG3 is going to play this week and Philly, who is already weak to the run, will not even be able to bring an 8th man into the box very often.  Bottom line is that, in the Playoffs, you NEED consistency at every position and Morris is as close to a sure-thing as it gets for 100 yards rushing for players not named Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – James Jones may lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns but he isn’t even close to the lead in targets or receptions on his own team.  Scores are fluky and not easy to do with consistency.  Cobb is a FAR safer option this week and Jones is more of a flex-option.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – There can’t be many of you left in the Super Bowl if you own this guy but maybe you capitalized on Alfred Morris and didn’t use CJ much until late in the season.  Either way, if you’ve got him, you may have to start him but try not to.  His value is almost entirely in the one big play he has been getting more often than not.  If he doesn’t get that play, he won’t have more than 5 points and you can’t take that chance.  Not with as bad as his o-line is, especially.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – It’s a shame that the team is in disarray right now because this should be a really nice match-up.  Now it’s a complete crap-shoot because given how poor the entire team played last week, Coughlin could potentially do anything with his running backs this week.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Steer clear of Freeman this week against the Rams.  They are no slouch on defense and after the entire team imploded last week, if your still alive, you wan’t to stay away from them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have no choice but to play him in a Super Bowl match-up this week and I am really nervous about it.  Like I just said, this team is a mess and while they have a really good chance of rebounding VERY strong and blowing up the scoreboard, it’s a gamble and as I’ve said a thousand times so far this post-season… this is not the time for a gamble.

Anotonio Brown, WR, PIT – I loved seeing him rebound last week too but you CAN NOT forget how bad he was for the entire rest of the season, before his injury.  WAY too risky.

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Pick ups

Mohammed Sanu, WR, CIN – Hawkins could easily steal playing time from Sanu down the stretch but even when both guys were healthy, the Bengals appear to look to Sanu for big plays and Hawkins is much more the after-thought.  Sanu is scary close to being a viable flex option and if it was week 5, I would be going out on a limb and saying that you should play him. Not with the playoffs on the line though.  This is a great pickup for someone who has already locked in a playoff spot.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Oops. Hillman was apparently not the valuable pick up that we thought he was going to be.  It was a game-time decision to go with Moreno as the starter and he did a decent job, despite the offense as a whole being a little sluggish this week. I expect Moreno to keep the job and when Peyton is the QB, the hurry up is being used. Moreno won’t leave the field too much if he is indeed starting.

Cecil Shorts, WR, JAC – Chad Henne strikes again with another fantasy-relevant performance and he is spreading his own value to both receivers.  Shorts is the guy I would rather own, simply because he’s been making big plays since before Henne took over and he is just more likely to score on a weekly basis.

Justin Blackmon, WR, JAC – I wasn’t kidding when I said that Henne was spreading fantasy value all across the Jaguars offense.  Blackmon is the receiver to own for PPR owners and is a flex option in standard leagues.  You should steer clear if the playoffs are on the line but he is absolutely worth a roster spot after a second solid outing with Henne at the helm.

Michael Bush, RB, CHI – Matt Forte’s injury is the same leg that he had his previous injury, this season.  I do not think it is an exacerbation of that injury but it is a cause for concern. He might take an extra game or two to return and Bush would be a poor RB2 option in his absence.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF – I’m pretty pleased to have been right on this guy.  He is a playmaker and very talented QB. His rushing ability gives him the safety that you got from Tebow at the end of last year and it was on display against the Saints.  This is not a fluke, he’s a top 10 fantasy receiver.

Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAC – With guys like Antonio Gates being dead to his fantasy owners and Gronkowski owners being suddenly desperate, Lewis’s relevance cannot be ignored.  He won’t be more than a match-up play but Henne is a legitimate threat in the passing game and the focus of defenses is sure to be Shorts and Blackmon.  Keep him on your radar, but there is no need to scoop him up until he has a good match-up.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, ATL – I’ve been waiting for this week all season.  Rodgers is probably my most added and most dropped player on the year as he always had a spot when I didn’t have bye-week issues but after this game and now that bye-weeks are over, he should not be available in any leagues.  You aren’t using him yet but I believe that he is going to get between 50 and 60% of the snaps for the Falcons the rest of the way.  Leave him on the bench for now though, until we see another game or two of increased touches.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – The Cardinal offense is really bad still but Wells is going to get the goal line work and at least half the touches. He’ll be a poor flex-start unless something gets the rest of his offense in gear.

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – He’s out there and there isn’t a ton of receiver talent on this Redskins roster. He has the highest upside and is a viable flex play after a really nice day of fantasy production this past week.

David Wilson, RB, NYG – This isn’t for everyone but Ahmad Bradshaw owners need to go get Wilson right now.  Bradshaw should see just about ALL the touches the rest of the way for as long as he holds up, physically. Bradshaw is not know for durability and you should be proactive about guaranteeing that you have a productive guy for that roster spot at all time

Dump List

Antonio Gates, TE, SD – The tight end position doesn’t often cost you wins, but Gates has been awful this season.  It isn’t a health issue either and with the playoffs on our doorstep, you can just cut this guy to make room for someone that you can have a little more confidence in.

LaRod Stephens-Howling, RB, ARI – He’s immediately back to being an after-thought on this offense. That makes him an after-thought for fantasy owners too.

Brian Hartline, WR, MIA – The Dolphins offense has been declining over the past month and I was hoping that Hartline would get it together again in time to be worth a roster spot, in case of injuries.  The pickups list is pretty long this week and Hartline has not been a viable receiver to start in quite a while.  You’ve gotta cut him loose.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – This goes for Redman and Dwyer too.  None of these guys will be able to do enough that I am convinced they are a safe start the rest of the season.  If you know you aren’t going to play someone, why keep them?

Greg Little, WR, CLE – Really? 25% owned… you shouldn’t need any numbers from me to demonstrate why this is insane. Cut him 3 weeks ago.

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Pickups

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith might have lost the trust of Flacco when he dropped the almost game-winning TD pass late in the game last night. The problem is, there was no one else for Flacco to look to a few plays later.  So Smith managed to make amends and hauled in a TD grab with less than 20 seconds left in the game.  Smith is a big-play threat and has at least three receptions in 5 of the last 6 games.  He will continue to improve and he has to be owned in all leagues.

Roy Helu, RB, WAS – Helu is available in over 80% of leagues as the Redskins offense has been terrible in recent weeks. Tashard Choice joined the Skins to further cloud the workload division for Shanahan but as the season slips away from them, I think it is safe to assume that Washington will look to the young guy and see what he can do.

Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK – I have been pretty steadfast in my evaluation that Ford is the top fantasy receiver in Oakland.  Carson Palmer created some doubt in my mind as each QB will have different levels of chemistry with each receiver but I am convinced again.  Ford is the top fantasy receiver in Oakland and the only one that I would even consider starting. And he is available in over 60% of leagues.

Jake Ballard, TE, NYG – There has only been two games this season where Ballard has been under 5 fantasy points.  Those games were in weeks 2 and 3.  Ballard gets his fair share of targets and makes the most of them. I am going to be considering him a top 10 TE and a weekly starter, regardless of match up.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – He has pretty clearly established his role in the Steelers offense. He is available in just over 30% of leagues and you need to go get him if he is out there in yours. No one has been targeted more on the Steelers and I think his value is only going to continue to rise.

Ben Tate, RB, HOU – Tate is only owned in roughly 60% of leagues and should be owned in all of them.  Both Tate and Foster were over 100 yards and while Foster will remain the lead back in the Texans’ offense, Tate is going to maintain value and would be a top 15 guy in the event that Foster missed any time. In the mean time, Tate is a potential flex play in the weeks where both guys are active.

Dump List

Jonathan Baldwin, WR, KC – Just when I thought the Chiefs might turn out to be a competitor despite all their injuries, they lose to the Dolphins and can’t even manage much in the way of offensive production.  Baldwin looked like he might take off and develop into a decent fantasy-receiver. My confidence has been shaken quite a bit and Baldwin was a long-shot to begin with, so cut your losses and get rid of him now.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB – I still expect the Packers to ride the hot hand but we wont be able to see it coming when Grant is going to see the work.  He only saw 4 carries last week and Starks was who they looked to late in the game when they were trying to run the clock and seal the win.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – Williams hasn’t been in double digit fantasy points since week 1 and while he hasn’t really blanked in a game for a few weeks, in shallow leagues you can drop him for an appealing prospect like say… Torrey Smith?

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – Garcon just isn’t someone that I can trust to start.  He has issues with drops and is on the league’s last winless team. I don’t see him becoming a consistently performing fantasy-option.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – We hoped that he might be able to be decently productive as he was bound to see the lion’s share of the carries.  He didn’t get anything accomplished and if you don’t need a fill-in for next week’s nice match up against the Rams, then feel free to cut him.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – The Raiders offense is a bit of a mystery with Palmer at QB. As I said above though, Ford is the Raiders receiver that I want to start and Heyward-Bey has too big of a track record of inconsistency for me to trust him easily.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno was essentially invisible in this game. McGahee came back early from his hand injury and ran wild in this game. Moreno’s value has officially hit rock bottom and there is no reason left to keep him on your roster that I can see.

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Arian Foster, RB, HOU - Inactive

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE - Inactive

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - Inactive

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - Active

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET - Active

Michael Vick, QB, PHI - Active

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This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years.  While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.

The First Seven

As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs.  Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance.  Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down.  Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league.  I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall.  Logic is bound to prevail  I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value.  This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense.  Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season.  In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value.  New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format.  Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner.  I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.

The Top 20

Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8^th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson.  Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season.  MJD slid to 9^th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run.  LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues.  Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11^th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense.  Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13^th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense.  Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion.  I have him at 16^th.  He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury.  All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work.  Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries.  Definitely not on the goal line though.

Backups and Flex Options

This is where I do not want to pick many running backs.  The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven.  The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene.  He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role.  I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23^rd and 21^st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush.  Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload.  I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play.  Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2.  I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again.  Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29^th in the rankings.  I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee

Busts

Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram

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Love

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – The Eagles face a stout defense that will need to spend a TON of time on the field this Sunday. Last week, the Bears drew up a blueprint for how to beat Joe Webb. They were very effective at disguising pressure and forcing Webb to make mistakes. With the ballhawks in the secondary for the Eagles, don’t be surprised to see a blow out come from this Sunday night game.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Isn’t it the law that I have to love running backs against the Bills?  It should be!  Despite having a decent performance last week against the Dolphins, the Bills run D is still ranked 32nd in the league.  Don’t expect the Pats to look past Buffalo either, especially not after such a narrow escape against Matt Flynn and the Packers.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – The Steelers are likely to obliterate the Panthers this week at home on Thursday night. Wallace is a huge part of their vertical passing game and should see his share of targets early on in the game.  If he is not able to haul one in before it gets out of hand Wallace owners could be in trouble, but I don’t think the Panthers will be able to cover him with any consistency.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – Except for in Week 14 against the Redskins, Blount has been a major contributor against each below average defense the Buccs have faced since he took over the starting job.  Despite breaking the road game losing streak for the Lions last week, look for the Buccaneers’ young core group of players to rebound strong and be able to produce offensively.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – There is a lot going for Ryan here.  He beat the Saints on the road earlier in the season and he is a much more efficient and productive QB at home.  The Saints offense will score points and force Ryan to air it out plenty in this game and he should be able to produce a quality outing for fantasy owners regardless of whether they win or lose.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – The Broncos face the Texans this week, who are on pace to be the worst pass defense in NFL history.  While Tebow scares me some, his ability to run will force defenses to stay honest and Lloyd was targeted enough last week to maintain some value going into your Super Bowl.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – The Titans play the Chiefs this week who are allowing just over 100 yards per game on the ground.  I think we can all agree that Johnson is better than the average running back and with Kerry Collins able to move the ball effectively through the air, you shouldn’t be shy about playing your first round draft pick.

Hate

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Since the Bye week, Moreno has been a picture of consistency.  Last week he got hurt and was not able to finish the game.  If somehow this didn’t knock you out of the playoffs, stay away from Moreno this week.  Tebow will be running a little more and these carries will be taken from Moreno.  Couple that with his sore ribs and he is just a little bit too risky for my liking this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – Boldin has really only had one good game this season and it was a 3 TD outing against the same opponent that the Ravens face this week.  With his incredible lack of consistency, there is no reason you should risk starting him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – I expect this to a be a one-sided affair and the Bills are clearly not who I anticipate winning.  He is a solid QB2 play, but there are better options for standard leagues.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Many teams would not be able to recover from the crushing defeat that the Giants suffered last week.  It is tough not to be mentally affected by a let down like that and since Aaron Rodgers is looking to return in time for this week’s game, they would have their hands full under the best of circumstances.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – Marshall has TDs in consecutive games for the first time all year and just caught 11 passes last week against what was the league’s 4th ranked defense.  With that said, after a long disappointing season the odds are pretty bad that he is able to put together another quality performance even with his very nice match up. Consider him a flex play at best this week.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – You’re still going to need to start him because of his involvement in the passing game, but lower expectations of Forte this week as he faces the Jets.  Their injuries have weakened their front 7, but the Jets’ blitzing scheme is still among the best in the league.  If Forte is to be successful he will need to break a fair few tackles in the backfield.

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Love

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - The Jaguars are fighting for a playoff spot and/or the division title in December?! Someone pinch me… I must be dreaming.  The Jags are an exceedingly average team with a mediocre quarter back, so it will not be an easy road for them.  The one thing that they do have going for them is a star RB in MJD.  The Raiders come to town this week and are known to be a bit weak against the run.  Look for MJD and Rashad Jennings to see a lot of work in this game and for Jack Del Rio to avoid having to attack the likes of Nnamdi Asomugha on the outside in the vertical passing game.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – All season long receivers and tight ends have been having huge games against the Texans and while Boldin has been inconsistent all year… this week he is worth the risk.  You may also want to look towards Derrick Mason this week as he is the most trusted receiver on the field for Flacco and he understands the offense incredibly well as a possession receiver.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is making a pretty solid claim at being a top 10 RB for next year’s fantasy draft.  With the firing of Josh McDaniels and the promotion of the Bronco’s former RB coach to interim head coach… it stands to reason that the predominately pass-first offense we have gotten to know from Denver is gone for at least the season.  Studesville has a tall task ahead of him, but a nice back in Moreno to lean on for the remaining 4 games.

Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK - I still say he is not a weekly starter unless your league counts return yards.  However, Ford has been a dynamic playmaker for the Raiders and they look to get him involved in the game early and often.  I would try and stick with safer options this week, but if you have been snake-bitten by injuries, the upside of Ford could pay off big this week against the Jaguars who have a pretty terrible group of cornerbacks.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Turner is one of the few workhorse backs in the NFL and he has a matchup that Marshawn Lynch was able to exploit last week.  The Panthers run defense has been their achilles heel all season and Turner is having a great year.  Also, considering the game is outdoors in Carolina, Matt Ryan will lean on his run game to push the Falcons to another win  in a setting they typically do not perform well in (road game, outdoors).

Donald Driver, WR, GB – Ok, so I wanted to put Jennings here, but that just seemed too lazy to me… So I am including Driver instead!  Everyone knows that Jennings is the hottest receiver in the NFL now that Bowe crapped out last week and if you read my article earlier in the week, you saw Driver’s amazing TD catch.  They are going against the Lions this week folks… Driver is at least a flex play against a defense known to allow the big play, oh and they are banged up at the moment to boot!

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – As per fantasy-law… start your RBs against Buffalo! It doesn’t hurt that he is a top 5 guy either.  And if you’re scared of how last week went, Buffalo’s defense will not be able to participate in a field goal oriented game… just too bad!

Earl Bennett, WR, CHI - He just appeared in my weekly pickup article this week, but I am already throwing him into my love list!  To me, Monday was about the Jets collapsing… not the Patriots defense being suddenly great.  The secondary for NE will likely nab an INT or two from Cutler, but since that doesn’t negatively effect the score of a WR… don’t worry about it!  The Patriots DBs are young, inexperienced and they will not be able to shut down the Bears balanced offensive attack completely.

Hate

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - What a rough season for the Bengals, but for this week all I need to say here is that he is up against the Steelers!  Make sure to leave Benson on the bench this week if possible!

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - After such a disappointing number of carries last week for Goodson, you might expect Stewart to be the top fantasy RB on the Panthers. You’re correct… just not this week! I expect Atlanta to get the lead early and hold it through the entire game and since Goodson is the guy they look to in the passing game, don’t expect Stewart to have a big performance.  The rankings on these two guys should be VERY close, but Stewart holds much more value the rest of the way.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – Treat that game as a one-time deal… until it proves not to be!  I doubt you see a repeat performance against the 49ers this week with the division title hanging in the balance in every game for each team the rest of the season.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Lawfirm has been clutch for the past few weeks and you can still start him this week because of it… but the Bears have a very good run defense (ranked 2nd in the NFL) and if he does not find the end zone you could be in trouble!

Sidney Rice, WR, MIN - Don’t let one game force you into making a mistake in the playoffs!  Rice has a lot of big play potential, but Favre is expected to be the QB and the match up is not favorable.  The Giants defense is effective when they rush the passer… Favre, being old, is not adept at evading a rush… and the Giants are ranked 2nd in the NFL against the pass.  They are only allowing an average of 192 yards per game.  Rice will still get a decent ranking (top 20), but if you drafted well you won’t need him, so don’t sit any of your studs to make room for him.

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Early Games (1 PM EST)

Darrelle Revis (CB, NYJ) – Inactive

Pierre Garcon (WR, IND) - Inactive

Knowshon Moreno (RB, DEN) – Inactive

Michael Turner (RB, ATL) – Active

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU) - Active

Bernard Berrian (WR, MIN) - Active

Percy Harvin (WR, MIN) – Active

Joshua Cribbs (WR, CLE) – Active

Jerome Harrison (RB, CLE) – Inactive

Late games (4 PM EST)

Joseph Addai (RB, IND)

Steve Breaston (WR, ARI)

Ryan Mathews (RB, SD)

Clinton Portis (RB, WAS)

Beanie Wells (RB, ARI)

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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After such a strong start, not making the playoffs last season was a hell of a blow.  Most people think the offense was what fell apart and their production certainly did fall off pretty fast, however I place most of the blame on the defensive side of the ball.  Orton will never be a QB that can lead a team; however he is very adept at managing the game. I do not see a playoff run for the Broncos this season with the departure of their best offensive weapon, Brandon Marshall.

Top Fantasy Players

Knowshon Moreno – He will be the feature back unless there is some unforeseen incident on the horizon which makes him valuable.  The offensive line is good enough that Moreno comes in as a RB2 this year, but I see little chance for a break-out season this year.

Demaryius Thomas – This receiver is a raw talent that reminds me quite a bit of Randy Moss.  He had some injury issues in college that kept him from catching a whole lot of passes, but they are behind him now and if the Broncos can turn this guy into a polished deep threat he could be something special.  Consider him a sleeper in the late rounds but don’t expect too much with no one to draw the double team away from him.

Kyle Orton – He is a pretty poor backup QB option to be honest… but you never know what can happen. The team is well coached and will not roll over by any means.

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