Pick Ups

Roy Helu, RB, WAS – The inherent mess of the Shanahan running backs may have let Helu remain on free agency this long. He isn’t even owned in half of leagues and he is the one guy on the list at RB that has big-game potential.  Torain did not even touch the ball on Sunday and Helu had a pretty nice game in a win over Seattle. Shanahan might just decide to spit in the face of fantasy owners again and start Torain next week but if you are taking a chance on one of these guys, it should be Helu every single time.

Greg Little, WR, CLE – The Browns desperately need a play maker at receiver and with Little starting to emerge, at least a little, I expect them to let Colt McCoy sling the ball around some so that they can properly evaluate him for their future needs.  I believe in McCoy and expect Little to continue to perform better than a Browns receiver has since Braylon Edwards did with Derek Anderson at QB in 2007.  Little should be owned in all leagues and could make a decent flex play if the match up is right the rest of the way.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – If you are making a serious playoff push right now, Brown would probably not be any better than a bench-warmer for you. I would probably rather seek out a handcuff to your best running back instead unless your fighting tooth and nail to get into the playoffs at all.  If that is the case Brown might have another decent game next week against New England but considering how badly they are going to lose, his upside is limited as well. He is worthy of a roster spot in most leagues but as you can tell, he does not excite me.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Despite how poorly Caleb Hanie played in this game, his ability to find Knox was undeniable. I’m not even ready to call Knox a solid flex-play yet but if Hanie keeps finding this speedy deep threat next week, then I will have to concede that Knox is worth starting again. I will already say that I would rather have Knox on my team than Bennett.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Hillis is available in around 20% of leagues at the moment and this is probably a mistake.  He is a borderline top 25 back and now that he is healthy, he must be owned.  He hasn’t played like he did last season but I never expected him to either. Bottom line is he is going to see between 12 and 15 carries and should be the primary goal line back.  This guy is too good to just be sitting on free agency.

Dump List

Bernard Scott, RB, CIN – Anyone who thinks that Scott has more in him than being a mediocre handcuff just hasn’t been watching the Bengals play.  Benson is the more dynamic threat out of the back field and Scott is only used as a change of pace.

Steve Breaston, WR, KC – I could see holding him until Orton starts and you see how he manages this offense but I wouldn’t wait.  I don’t trust Breaston at the moment and with this offense being so one-dimensional, I don’t see that changing.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – LT is still owned in over 40% of leagues and I don’t get it.  McKnight has run better than he has and neither has really seen the field very much.  Cut your loses with LT now and let him be someone else’s problem as you head into the playoffs!

Lance Ball, RB, DEN – With McGahee having gotten banged up a few times, Ball isn’t value-less. But he didn’t break-out at all when he had the chance and was merely a viable replacement. McGahee has bounce back quickly from his injuries this season and I would probably let Ball go if I had my eye on someone on waivers this week.

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Question 1: Asked by @Shaban09

I just picked up D.J Ware.. im bare on RB this week with Mathews out.. who do I start.. Tomlinson or Ware?

Answer

This is a really tough call. Neither options is very good at all but I have to give the nod to Tomlinson. The bottom line here is that we just do not know how the carries will be split for the Giants.  In addition, the Giants will likely be attacking New England vertically in the passing game and the number of carries that there are to go around is very probably going to be low this week.

Question 2: Asked by @Dantvman

I need some trade advice.  I’m in 1st, guy in 3rd is offering me Garcon for Fitzpatrick.

Answer

This seems like a guy trying to sell-high on Garcon. Fitz’s value has dipped as Freddie Jackson has really taken over as the primary focus of the Bills’ offense, but he remains a GREAT backup and I don’t see any reason to give him up for a receiver that you would likely not even use in a Bye-week jam.  Hold tight and reject the trade.  If you don’t want to keep Fitz, shop him around to the rest of the league. I would think you are able to get more for him.

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Before it gets too far away from the end of the 2010 NFL season, we should take a look back at a few players who either exceeded expectations or didn’t come close.  These players can make or break your draft next year as their former owners clamor for a chance to own their savior from last season again, or let them fall way too deep in the draft because of bitter feelings of resentment.  In order to be a good fantasy football player you have to have a short memory, but there are always a few nuggets of information worth remembering over the long-term:

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – He was a dud this past season and it is easy to think that he is getting old and no longer a factor.  I took a look at his production and found something worth noting, take a look for yourself:

Games with Matt Moore at QB

Games without Matt Moore at QB

*Matt Moore started but was knocked out due to injury in the first half.

Moore did not make the Panthers a better team by any stretch, but he clearly had a trust and connection with the only legitimate receiving threat that Carolina had last year.  I am not saying that he has much value going into next season, but the Panthers are very likely to go with a different QB next season and I do not blame Smith for his mediocre numbers. Smith could end up a gem if he can build chemistry with whoever is at Quarterback for the Panthers, so don’t be afraid to use a mid to late round pick on him at next years draft.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – What more can you ask for from the Chief’s stud running back, who burst on the scene last year? MORE CARRIES!  I have been on record saying that Todd Haley is an idiot, but it never hurts to say it again.  Charles averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was highest in the NFL for all players who saw over 100 carries on the season. Charles was also 2^nd in total yards with 1,467, not far behind Arian Foster who had 1,616.  Even more impressively, he did it on just 230 carries (Foster had 327).  Thomas Jones was the other back involved in the league’s top rushing attack and despite having just a 3.7 YPC average Jones saw 15 more carries.  This was essentially a 50/50 timeshare, but look for Charles to get better every season from here on out.  Thomas Jones is aging quickly while Charles gains experience, he will be trusted to carry the ball more often. This guy is here to stay and I do not see his production dropping off even a little next year.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was very surprised that the Chiefs made the playoffs this season and Dwayne Bowe was a big part of their success.  He started the season pretty poorly, with 152 yards and one TD in his first four games.  In weeks 6 and 7 he went up against two of the worst secondaries in the NFL and his production spiked with 189 yards and four TDs in those two weeks.  He went on a 7 game scoring streak recording 13 touchdowns during that timeframe.  Easily lost in these impressive stats is the trouble that Bowe had against quality defensive backs; In week 13 Bowe was held without a catch against an aging Champ Bailey and in week 8 against Buffalo, he had three catches for just 16 yards (though one of them was a TD).  Lastly, the team’s passing offense disappeared when Matt Cassel missed a game against the Chargers in week 14.  I don’t blame this on Bowe but for me to take a guy as my top wide receiver, I’d like to think he could get open at least ONCE for his backup QB.  All this points to Bowe having a lot of upside for next season, but it is not without risk.  Bowe is nothing more than a WR2 until he can produce more consistently, so don’t get caught paying too high a price to have him on your team next season.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI – Celek had a breakout season in 2009 when Donovan McNabb was at Quarterback for the Eagles and appeared to be a big part of their offense last season when Kevin Kolb was running the show.  Once Michael Vick took the starting job, Celek appeared to become an afterthought.  The fact is that with a mobile quarterback like Vick, the tight end will not be used as often as with a pocket passer… especially when the offensive line struggles as it did last year. The end of the season was better for Celek, but the big issue for me will be his consistency.  There might be more 10-reception games like in week 16 on the horizon, but I am much more concerned with how many 0-2 fantasy-point outings are waiting for his fantasy owners.  I think Celek has the skill to be a top-5 TE, but the situation looks to be a frustrating one for fantasy owners and you can find a better value at the position during next year’s draft.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – There was a lot of hype going into last year’s fantasy draft season about Shonn Greene being the lead guy for the Jets.  This was not the case, LT showed that he still has what it takes to be a dynamic playmaker and was pivotal to the early success that the Jets had.  Later in the year however, LT slowed down and made less of an impact.  LT might be getting old, but he still has the ability to make an impact in a supporting role.  He was used as the lead back most of the season and because of that he wore down and was not as effective a weapon late in the year.  If Rex Ryan hopes to get the most of LT deep into the playoffs he will need to lean much more heavily on Shonn Greene, which knocks LT out of my top 30 running backs for next season.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – Britt is my biggest sleeper pick for next year’s fantasy draft.  I am by no means alone in this, but there is good reason that so many people think he is about to explode… he already did.  Last season Britt started just 7 games and still managed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  This is an average of over 110 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.  These averages are slightly inflated due to a 225 yard 3 score game in week 7, but since when do we mind letting one player put up 40+ points with their backup QB?  Right now I see Britt as a top-15 receiver, but this all depends on how the Titans go about addressing their QB situation.  The Titans also have a new head coach, Mike Munchak, who was a 9 time pro-bowl offensive lineman and is sure to favor the ground game.  This actually bodes well for Britt however, because Chris Johnson will force defenders to bring an eighth into the box to contain him and severely limit their ability to double cover Britt.  I expect the Titans to look to add a veteran QB to their roster in an effort to give them a chance to win right out of the gates and if say, Donovan McNabb landed the job… the Titans would instantly have a playoff-caliber team.  All we really need now is a new CBA so that free agency can happen…

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Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE – Inactive

Brett Favre, QB, MIN – Inactive

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Active

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Inactive

Deion Branch, WR, NE – Inactive

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – Inactive

Marques Colston, WR, NO – Inactive

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Active

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO – Inactive

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – Inactive

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Inactive

Sidney Rice, WR, MIN – Inactive

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Inactive

Todd Heap, TE, BAL – Active

Wes Welker, WR, NE – Inactive

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Love

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - I have used this stat a lot, but it stays relevant so here it is again: McFadden has gotten 100 yards from scrimmage in all but two starts this season and one of them was against the Steelers.  The players that perform consistently all season are the ones you should be using in the playoffs.  DMC also has a great match up against the Broncos who are the 31st ranked rush defense in the NFL, who allow an average of 150 yards per game.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – With the Saints as opponents next week, we should expect to see the Ravens attack New Orleans on the ground.  The Greg Williams blitzing scheme has been disrupting the timing of opposing QBs all season and when you have such a talented backfield with Rice, McClain and McGahee… there is little reason to not attempt to control the clock and run the ball as much as possible.  If the Saints are able to build an early lead, then this will all go out the window and the Ravens will go to the air.  IF you didn’t know Rice is pretty good at catching the ball out of the back field.

Mike Williams, WR, TB - I expect a good bounce-back game for Williams who was shut down last week.  Arrelious Benn is developing into another vertical threat for the Buccs offense and he will force the Lions’ depleted secondary to single cover Williams who should be able to get deep and find the end zone at least once.  Another nice thing to note here, is that the Lions seem to be competitive in every game they play.  This will keep Williams and the passing game relevant deep into the fourth quarter.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL - The Jason Garrett-led Dallas Cowboys have found an element of their offense that did not exist when Wade Phillips was running the show… the run game.  Tashard Choice has proven to be a versatile weapon with his ability to run between the tackles, as well as his speed through the hole.  Jones is the guy they look to get the ball to in open space and because of this, he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  With the run-game being effective lately, his touches have increased and that is all that Jones will need to be a quality flex-starter for fantasy owners, opportunity!

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - The Jaguars corner backs have been terrible this season, they allow big plays and are unable to cover physical receivers in a one on one scenario.  Wayne should have a good game as well, despite drawing double teams and safety help over the top, but Garcon should be left isolated on the other side of the field.  Coming off a big game, look for Pierre to catch at least 8 passes, totaling 80 yards and a score.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – The Texans pass defense has been terrible this season, they are on pace to be the worst in NFL history and even with Kerry Collins at QB, Britt should do just fine.  Keep in mind that, before his injury, Collins was the QB for Britt’s HUGE game back in week 7.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – After watching Alex Smith tear the Seahawks’ secondary to shreds last week, I have a lot of confidence in White this week.  Matt Ryan never plays that well on the road and outdoors, but he doesn’t need to play well to get White a great fantasy performance this week.  There is no one that can cover him one-on-one if they don’t at least provide safety help over the top, they will be burned by a big play.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – With the outstanding performances of both Jacobs and Bradshaw in recent weeks, fantasy owners can NOT leave either guy on the bench any longer.  Jacobs will be the first to see a drop off in production, when opposing defenses figure out how to shut them down… but I don’t expect that to happen this week against the Eagles.  Philadelphia’s defense has two VERY important players on it, Stewart Bradley and Asante Samuel.  Bradley will be out for the remainder of the regular season (at least) and Samuel has missed the past three games.  If Samuel does not come back, expect the Giants to win… but without Bradley, the Eagles are not likely to stop the run with any consistency.

Hate

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Last week Crabtree was a non-factor in the 49er offense and they got a great game from Alex Smith.  This week they face the Chargers, who lose games only because of abysmal special teams play.  Their defense has been fantastic all season and have only allowed an average of 13 points per week to opposing receivers.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – The Bills have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league and despite finding the end zone last week, he has performed FAR under everyone’s expectations.  He is no longer a viable fantasy-starter and should be reserved for your flex spot at best.  Don’t take a chance on him this week when common sense dictates the Dolphins will be running whenever possible.

Ladainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ - It is tough to start any Jets offensive players, except possibly Santonio Holmes.  Against Pittsburgh, there just won’t be any big plays and field goals are likely to decide this one. I know he is a large part of the reason you made the playoffs, but he is simply too risky to play this week.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - I would hate to do it, but I would still have to start Peterson this week.  You have to lower expectations as the Vikings offense has had little success lately, but Peterson remains the most complete and talented running back in the league.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Packers run defense has been great and Clay Matthews is my favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, but this is another situation where you will likely need to start him anyways.  The Patriots have been fantastic the past two weeks, decimating playoff teams and smart money is, they will be able to produce on offense no matter who their opponent is.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – Last week is enough to plummet the values of every Denver Bronco for fantasy purposes, with one exception… Knowshon Moreno.  Studesville was not able to lead an offense that could produce at all against the Arizona Cardinals.   Oakland has a quality secondary and should have few problems shutting down Orton and Lloyd.

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Jets at Patriots

The Battle for the AFC East will be fought on Monday night this week as the Patriots play host to the cardiac Jets.  The Jets managed to win this match up when they were at home in week 2 this year, but in order to demonstrate they are a true threat to make it to the Super Bowl… they will need to prove they can go on the road and beat an elite team.  Despite the fact that the Patriots have the same record, I don’t foresee them being able to beat the Jets in this match up.  The Patriots’ pass defense has fallen to last place in the NFL and with the development of Sanchez coming along smoothly and the integration of Santonio Holmes into the Jets offense being finished, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Jets complete a comeback win inside the last two minutes of the game.  Because of the Jets defense you should stay away from starting any and all Patriots players on your fantasy team… except Brady. Upgrade Sanchez and his receivers as the Patriots have proven they are not able to keep receivers covered for very long at all.  The Patriots run defense is solid, but they are not good enough to lower expectations for LT or Shonn Greene.

Texans at Eagles

The number two game on my list of must-see games this week is the Thursday night game on NFL Network tonight.  The Texans are another pass defense that does not seem to be able to cover anyone and until last week they appeared to have a strangle-hold on the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL.  On the other side of the ball Michael Vick is having an MVP season this year.  He has thrown just ONE interception thus far and while facing off against such a terrible secondary, Vick is sure to have a huge performance in this game and he has been locked in as my top ranked QB for the week.  Also look for great performances from each of the Eagles’ top two receivers as each has been a beneficiary of Vick’s play.  Lots of people have lowered their expectations for DeSean Jackson, largely due to the consistency of Jeremy Maclin… but no receiver in the league has the big-play ability that Jackson does and I feel he is a must start for the rest of the way.  The Eagles defense has been able to contain most of the RBs they have faced this season, but with Foster being the top rusher of the season… he remains a must start and it is reasonable to expect a good game from him this week.  Andre Johnson is still a stud and since he was not suspended, you still have to start him as he is the best all-around receiver in the NFL.  I expect a big win for the Eagles if they get Asante Samuel back in their lineup for this match up, but if not… this game could go just like the Bears game did.

Steelers at Ravens

A football fan’s favorite match up comes in as the third must-watch game of the week.  The past 10 or so years have featured elite defenses from both the Steelers and Ravens every year.  Since they face each other twice a year, there is also a rivalry element when these teams meet… which almost always leads to a hard-fought and entertaining defensive battle.  So, if you want to see long passing TDs and breakout offensive performances… your going to want to find a different game to watch.  Downgrade EVERYONE involved in this game on the offensive side of the ball, though with the struggles of the Ravens defense this year… your Steelers are likely still starters for your week 13 fantasy match up.  I expect the Steelers to create a big play or two with Big Ben’s scrambling ability and that should be enough to get the win in this game.  As for the Ravens on your fantasy team, don’t expect a big game from  Boldin… but with Ray Rice’s involvement in the passing game he will remain a top 20 RB.

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*Game is being played in London

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*Game is being played in London

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Vikings at Jets

The Headline trade made yesterday morning to send Randy Moss back to the Vikings as they make their last ditch effort to regain their offensive firepower they had last season.  With Favre only in town for one year and the passing offense being pretty bad, Randy Moss is sure to provide a spark.  Every time Moss has changed teams he has used the fresh start to its maximum potential.  Sidney Rice will be returning from injury and the Vikings will likely have the best receiving corp in the NFL.  For now, they have to face the best defense in the league and Moss has to lineup against his ex-division rival Darelle Revis.  Expect this to be a low scoring game given the caliber of defense on each team.  Players like Moss, Keller and Peterson have to be started anyways, but if you have viable options instead of LT, Favre, Holmes and Greene you should use them.  I like the home team to squeak out a win with a healthy Revis shutting down Moss and the Vikings looking like they did before the bye for just one more game.

Chiefs at Colts

The Colts are pissed, they must be sick of hearing them mentioned along with the phrase “Super Bowl Hangover” and after losing to the third longest field goal in NFL history you can expect them to try and put on a show.  The Chiefs are the last undefeated team left in the league after their early bye week.  Even with the extra time to prepare, the challenge is the Colts at home and I don’t see them managing an upset.  The abysmal Colts run defense will allow Jamaal Charles and, to a lesser extent, Thomas Jones to have plenty of value to their fantasy owners in a losing effort.  Despite the Chiefs success thus far, Matt Cassell is not a quality QB and they will not be able to hold the division lead for too long.  Pierre Garcon participated fully in practice on Wednesday and with him back in the lineup Austin Collie will need to have a big day in order to keep the attention of Peyton Manning and hopefully the number 2 spot on the depth chart.

Titans at Cowboys

Both of these teams are at the bottom of competitive divisions.  The Cowboys are part of a wide-opening competition where every win is crucial and the Titans have to compete with the Colts and the newly-dominant Texans. Whichever team loses this game will probably go into crisis-mode and do something in an effort to shake things up.  Last season a mid-season shake up at QB led to a huge win streak to come back from an 0-6 start to be a part of the playoff hunt at the end of the season for Vince Young and the Titans.  Both teams are playoff contenders and this just may be the best game of the week.  I like the Cowboys to win a high-scoring game given their home field advantage as well as the match up of Miles Austin against the Titans secondary.  The Titans have allowed two straight 300 yard passers and Romo will also have a great game.  Don’t take a chance on a Cowboys RB or Titans WR unless you have no other choice, but Chris Johnson and Vince Young should do just fine if you are counting on them.

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