This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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LOVE

Thomas Jones – Bills are soft against opposing RBs given the injuries that have plagued their entire team.  Jones has been a model of consistency all season there is no reason it doesn’t happen again.

Matt Forte – I love all offensive players against the Rams unless they are Browns.

Cedric Benson – Benson was over rested to ensure his production deep into the playoffs.  He is aching to get back and they wont be afraid to use him in a great match up!

Brandon Marshall – The fact that the Chiefs have been on a tear as of late only makes it more likely that the passing game will be relevant deep into the game.

Jason Avant – Avant is a great pickup this week as Jackson’s absence is going to be missed against a weak Falcons secondary in week 13.  Avant is the lead candidate to fill the void Jackson will leave in the offense.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson – The game is in Jacksonville but the Jags are quite bad against the pass.  This duo is all set to have quite a great week for fantasy owners especially considering coach Kubiak is intent on ruining their running game.

Randy Moss – Bill Belichick is not pleased with the outing Monday night and is out for revenge against a team Ryan Fitzpatrick just torched!

Rashard Mendenhall – He’s been a bit quiet this past few weeks but with Ben Roethlisberger on the mend they will lean on the running game.

Pierre Thomas – Thomas looked good last week and the Saints wont need to pass against the leagues number one passing defense with Thomas ready to carry it as much as the Saints let him.

Ladainian Tomlinson – The Browns are really soft and if the Chargers can get to the goal line LT can still punch it in.

Vincent Jackson – Jackson has been a big disappointment over the past few weeks but the Browns have been much more disappointing for a lot longer.

Michael Crabtree – Seattle has the 25th ranked pass defense allowing an average of 231 yards per game.  Coach Singletary has this team believing in itself and they are still on the skirts of the wild card hunt.

Burleson and Houshmandzadeh – SF has the 28th ranked passing defense allowing 256.5 yards per game.  I do not think both can put up big numbers but one should have a big game and the other one should be respectable.  It’s up to Hasselbeck and the 49ers defense who gets the scores!

Donald Driver – Driver and Jennings have reversed their roles from what we thought they would be preseason and I have seen nothing to make me expect the roles to switch back.

Brett Favre and Sydney Rice – It’s near impossible to develop the kind of chemistry these two have over the single season time frame that these two have known each other.  I was skeptical but have recently hopped on board…

HATE

Terrell Owens – Guess whose turn it is to get shut down by Darrelle Revis!

Beanie Wells – Hightower got more work last week, and it appears that the Cards trust him more in the critical scenarios!

Calvin Johnson – Now that he has had some good production over the last fort night I’m afraid he has peaked, certainly I can’t expect much from the playoff bound Bengals.

Ryan Grant – I don’t foresee that much production from Grant Monday night against a stout Ravens run defense and struggling secondary.

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Studs

A breakout game this week from the Cardinal RB Beanie Wells. This back made a huge impact with 16 carries and 85 yards and TWO scores. Hightower still knows the blocking scheme’s better and is better at blitz pickup so Beanie will not become the feature back this season, but from a keeper league stand point I really think that next season he will be just that. For the rest of the season Wells is a great option if the Westbrook Turner or Brown injuries hit you particularly hard, or as a flex play depending on match up. Great upside from here on out, he seems to have taken the top fantasy RB spot between the two in Arizona. In ESPN standard scoring Wells was third this week in fantasy points with 23 and has a great match up vs a terrible Rams team.

If you had Reggie Bush in your flex this week than you’re probably in a good mood after this weekend. The speedy back rushed only 6 times but totaled 83 yards rushing and had both a rushing and receiving score. Bush has a speed and elusiveness that makes him a threat from anywhere on the field. Bush becomes a solid flex play and has an excellent match up vs a surging Buccs team. Regardless of how promising play has been from the Buccaneers lately this is the 9-0 Saints so there is no concern in starting Bush in a flex role.

LaDainian Tomlinson was running for two this Sunday in a great game vs the Eagles that no one, myself included thought he had left in him. His wife left him a surprise of a positive pregnancy test in his locker for game day morning and he has his best game of the season with 24 carries 96 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This comes one week after his appearance on a great many dump lists so check your waiver wire and see. LT will be a solid flex play in some deeper leagues, but apart from a really good matchup we should see any more games like this. LT isn’t that old, and he can run through big wholes if they are there. Play him vs any bad defenses he is going to face such as KC and Cle in weeks 12 and 13.

Sydney Rice racked up just over 200 yards Sunday in a Vikings win over the Detroit Lions. Rice is a talented receiver that has built a relationship with Brett Favre. We will need to keep an eye on his production with Berrian back in the lineup and Favre’s recent trend of sliding off late in the season.

Lee Evans has put up respectable fantasy numbers with as much consistency as the Bills have had at quarterback. Evans will remain a flex option in desperate times that might be ahead given the lack of depth many of us are experiencing after this weeks injuries. Bowe was just suspended and this creates a small void for some fantasy owners. Evans can help you through this 4 week gap, but you don’t want to have to play him each week. Also worth noting is that while writing this entry the Bills fired Dick Jauron, how this will effect the offense is unknown but the defensive coordinator is taking over on an interim basis.

Duds

The Cowboy’s new fantasy stud Miles Austin had a terrible game this weekend vs a solid Green Bay secondary. Austin saw four catches for only 20 yards and showed his ability to be contained by a good defense that is able to plan for him. I believe whole-heartedly in Tony Romo’s inability to perform after the month of December begins, but typically this is after a near perfect November for the Cowboys QB. Austin will not be more than a flex play except against good match ups from here on out. With that said, he will be a very good flex play as Roy Williams get introduced into the passing game more and more. This will cause defenses to pick their poison over the course of a game by double covering one of them, leaving the other in single coverage where both are very dangerous.

Nate Burleson wasn’t able to catch a single ball Sunday versus a better than advertised Cardinals secondary. His teammate T.J. Houshmandzedeh saw 17 targets while pulling down 9 of them for 165 yards! It certainly is starting to look like the primary receiver in Seattle is Houshmandzedeh, however Burleson will not be gone completely. I do expect a role reversal here fantasy wise.

Marques Colston gobbled up every pass thrown to him Sunday against the Rams.  Yep, both of them!  The Saints WR was held in check the entire game and only totaled 17 yards in what should have been a big game.  So far this season defenses have been rolling coverage Colston’s way all season.  This hasn’t helped a single team to beat the undefeated Saints so I would expect decent production from Colston the rest of the way, just not at the level we hoped in the preseason.

Joe Flacco had a TERRIBLE game (from a fantasy perspective only!) Monday night versus a VERY favorable match up… the lowly Browns.  There was an inability on a part of the Ravens offense to move the ball in the first half.  This was definitely the case on the other side of the ball, so there was little urgency on the part of the Ravens to take any risks at all.  To compound the issue, very shortly after this first TD there was an pick six for the Ravens D, and from then out it was a ball control game featuring Ray Rice.  Don’t panic here Flaccoholics, no picks, no risks, and a good completion percentage.  This was no where near a game where Flacco needed to make plays.

Lastly, Pierre Thomas had only 11 carries and 37 yards in the same great matchup that Colston under-produced in.  Reggie Bush was the top Fantasy RB in New Orleans this weekend, however neither saw a large amount of carries.  We’ve seen Thomas’ ability after returning from an injury in week 3, and this is still the same guy.  He is the main back for the Saints still, he just had an off week.  I read nothing into this at all!  This is still his job, and Bell shouldn’t see any added work because of this performance.  Bush may see a few while he has the hott hand, but thats about it.

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