Studs

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – It isn’t often that Andy Reid lets a back see 30 carries, but I am not sure he has ever had one as good as McCoy. I thought that he was mostly just an edge rusher and receiving threat and that is what Reid likes from a RB.  He has proved me wrong this season and continues to impress after 185 yards and 2 TDs on the ground this week.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith now has five 100 yard receiving performances this season.  He is a top 10 receiver with Cam Newton at QB and has just been a draft day steal for all of his fantasy owners.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL – Jackson is too good to have been on your bench this week, even though we all expected a rout by New Orleans and limited carries because of a need to pass the ball.  Well that didn’t happen as the Rams upset the Saints in a big way on Sunday and Jackson was the key to this win.

Bills, D/ST, BUF – The one knock on this opportunistic defensive unit has been pressure on the QB.  Going into this week, they had the lowest sack total in the NFL with 4.  They had NINE sacks this week against Washington and forced 2 interceptions as they shut out the Redskins. Beck had a rough day and this was the first time in history that a Mike Shanahan team has been shut out. Impressive game by the Bills after coming off the bye week, which has spelled disaster for most teams this season.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – After posting 134 yards on 31 carries and scoring a TD this week, Gore has 4 straight games of over 125 yards AND a TD. Impressive after such a lack-luster start. The 49ers offense is forcing the ball down the throat of opposing defenses and I don’t see their strategy changing over the rest of this season. You HAVE to keep Gore in your lineup.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – Nate had two scores in this game and it was by far his best game since Kenny Britt was hurt and he reached the top of the depth chart at wide receiver. I credit this to Javon Ringer bringing a balance to the Titan offense as he split carries evenly with Chris Johnson.

Duds

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Terrible call by me on Law Firm this week. In my defense, NO ONE saw Kevin Faulk’s return as a threat to Law Firm’s workload. Neither Ridley or Woodhead even saw a touch in this game and Faulk had over twice the touches that Green-Ellis did. Fantasy owners hate you too Coach Belichick.

Philip Rivers, QB, SD – The only reason that Rivers hasn’t been the biggest bust of the 2011 season is because Chris Johnson was a first round pick.  They have both been equally as bad.  Rivers has been out scored by Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Ouch.  No excuse this week as all his receiving weapons are finally healthy.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Admittedly the entire Cowboys offense was bad this week, but we have come to expect Austin to be a top 10 receiver and in the past two weeks he has been far from.  I was surprised to see Austin in the slot so much this week, with Robinson playing on the outside in three receiver sets. This was probably an effort to get a more favorable matchup for Austin and I expect Dallas to make a point to get Austin back involved in a big way against Seattle this week.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – The Skins are just falling apart and with Torain being injury prone, I expect Helu to take over the lion’s share of the carries VERY soon.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – The Steelers provided a very nice road map for how to shut down Brady and the Pats offense.  Play man-to-man and load up 8 or 9 people around the line of scrimmage.  The Pats don’t have an elite receiver that can go out there and beat man-coverage on a regular basis.  I am not worried about any Patriots down the road though.  Not many teams have the personnel on defense to execute this strategy like Pittsburgh does.

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Cowboys at Eagles

Dallas has been a very inconsistent team this season.  Half the time Romo looks like a hero and the other half he looks like a scapegoat. Philadelphia has the opposite problem.  They have been consistently awful all season long!  They struggle to stop the run on defense and they also have not been able to keep from turning the ball over on offense. Offensive production in terms of points and yardage have never been the issue, but they just simply have not been able to overcome the turn overs.  I expect Dallas to lean on DeMarco Murray to take full advantage of the Eagles undersized defensive front and inability to contain the running game.  Because of Murray, the Cowboys should be able to keep Vick and the Eagles high-flying offense on the sideline and control the clock.  Dallas also has the ability to go deep with Austin and Bryant at receiver so this should be a great game regardless of who wins. I slightly downgrade the Cowboys ground game and think Murray is a must-start as an RB2 for this week. The Dallas defense is not good enough to make me downgrade any of the Eagles and you should still be starting all the usual suspects despite the losing streak. I like Dallas to win a close game with a heavy dose of the run game.

Patriots at Steelers

Brady has historically had no trouble passing against the Steelers and Pittsburgh has no one that can contain Welker, but I expect the run game to be a big part of New England’s plan this week.  Law Firm has been running strong the past couple of weeks and Ridley has been coming along as his primary backup.  With two quality runners and a Steelers defense that has been pretty mediocre against the run, Brady will probably not stick to the pass too much.  I think that the Steelers passing game should be in a for a big day.  Roethlisberger has not had much time to throw this season but then again, the Patriots have not been able to get much pressure on the QB or cover receivers in the vertical passing game.  Mike Wallace is an absolute MUST start in this match up and if you have Big Ben, you likely do not have a better option either. Welker and Brady have just been too good this season to bench ever too and I think New England squeaks out a win in a VERY close game.

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This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years.  While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.

The First Seven

As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs.  Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance.  Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down.  Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league.  I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall.  Logic is bound to prevail  I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value.  This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense.  Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season.  In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value.  New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format.  Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner.  I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.

The Top 20

Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8^th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson.  Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season.  MJD slid to 9^th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run.  LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues.  Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11^th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense.  Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13^th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense.  Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion.  I have him at 16^th.  He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury.  All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work.  Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries.  Definitely not on the goal line though.

Backups and Flex Options

This is where I do not want to pick many running backs.  The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven.  The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene.  He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role.  I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23^rd and 21^st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush.  Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload.  I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play.  Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2.  I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again.  Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29^th in the rankings.  I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee

Busts

Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram

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