Love

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – If you drafted Flacco I understand your frustration, but he IS playing against the Browns.  And really, he did well in week 1 considering he was facing the Jets.  Both Flacco and Boldin are pretty safe bets to have a big game this week.  Don’t let one bad game lead you to leave points on your bench.

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO – Like I said on twitter after Reggie Bush’s injury, I always hate to see an injury but as a Pierre Thomas owner I am pretty pleased with how much work Thomas is likely to receive in the absence of Bush.  Based off of the anticipated increase in both rushes and receptions as well as how effective Thomas was against a great Vikings run defense I expect Thomas to be a top 10 back while Bush is inactive.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL - Despite the massive concerns I have for the Cowboys running backs you can not really come up with a legitimate reason for why Austin will not succeed.  In the past two weeks the Cowboys have gone win-less and have struggled with penalties, protecting the QB and especially running the football.  Austin still leads the league in receiving yards and is currently the only consistent fantasy threat on the Cowboys.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - Vick at the helm turns this offense into a more balanced attack.  Vick will be able to draw the attention of the linebackers on defense and make them more vulnerable to counters and misdirection.  This week the Eagles have a pretty good match-up vs a struggling Jaguars team that does not have an overwhelming defense and is trying to get past a problem with turnovers.

Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS – Even though you probably drafted McNabb as your backup QB he is set to have a great week.  I rank him at 11th so if you are in a deep format or a 2 QB league McNabb has been a diamond in the rough thus far.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Despite losing the game the 49ers re-enforced my preseason opinion of the team.  Alex Smith was effective and showed poise in the pocket under pressure late in the fourth quarter.  The Chiefs do not have as good of a defense as the Saints do and with it being much more likely that the 49ers dictate the pace of the game you can be confident that Gore will be given plenty of opportunities.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – With a 2nd good match-up for DJax and the Eagles combined with how well Vick has been performing it would be pretty foolish to sit a guy like Jackson that is such a dangerous weapon.  The balance of the Eagles offense will provide some chances to both Jackson and Maclin to face one on one man coverage and have a very productive week.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Some fantasy owners are not all that pleased with the performance of Mendenhall so far this season and I don’t quite get it.  Even though it took going to overtime in week 1 to get him in the end zone, it’s not like that doesn’t count.  He is the only consistent fantasy threat  on the Steelers offense and is currently 4th in the league in rushing yards.

Fred Taylor, RB, NE - With Faulk out for the season and Maroney shipped off the Denver Fred Taylor and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are about to get an increased workload.  It makes sense that Taylor gets the lead back carries with BJGE taking care of the third down and receiving work.  Against a great match-up at home against Buffalo Taylor may just have his best game of the season.

Roddy White, WR, ATL - Roddy White is the only reliable receiving target for Matt Ryan and currently leads the league in both receptions and targets.  Since White cannot get penalized for sacks or interceptions he is a great start this week.  The Falcons will not be as effective as the 49ers where at controlling the Saints defense with the running game and will need to abandon it for an aerial assault in an attempt to stay in the game.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN – I expect that the Vikings are able to win their first game of the season in rather convincing fashion against the Lions in week 3.  The Lions are very vulnerable to the big play and with a lack of reliable receiving threats the smart money is on Shiancoe to lead the team in receiving.

Hate

Ricky Williams, RB, MIA - With Revis likely to miss the game this week I expect the Dolphins to lean heavy on the passing attack this week.  This was how the Ravens were able to beat the Jets.  With limited work to share and a stout Jets run defense there is not much room for fantasy value from the Dolphins running game this week.  Smart money is on Brown to be more productive, not Williams.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC - Thomas Jones is so beloved by the Chiefs coaching staff that they are willing to risk losing a close game and limit their offensive production just to feed him the ball.  Jones is not done in this league, but he should be be getting MORE carries than Jamaal Charles that is absurd.  It is not a matter of being greedy for fantasy points it is about production and yards per carry average.  Jones is too slow to be effective against a Patrick Willis lead 49ers defense.

Carnell Williams, RB, TB – I don’t care if the Buccaneers are 2-0 or how good Josh Freeman has been playing.  The Steelers defense has been dominating opponents even without a balanced offense to help them out.  They held Chris Johnson to 53 all purpose yards and forced 7 turnovers.  You have to ask yourself how good the Buccaneers really are have only beaten the Browns and an apparently bad Panthers team.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - I have been big on Garcon for the past two weeks and have been disappointed both times.  If you have any other viable options it is probably time to use them until Garcon earns the trust of Peyton Manning all over again.

Terrell Owens, WR, CIN - As I thought Palmer has looked pretty bad so far this season.  In order to win games and make a playoff push this season the Bengals will need to lean on the running game and while Ochocinco has been able to be productive this far, this offense cannot sustain two consistent receivers for fantasy football.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – See Carnell Williams.

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Studs

Jahvid Best, RB, DET - The concern that I have with Best is not about his talent, it is about his health.  He has a history of injuries from college including a pretty nasty looking neck injury where he was wheeled off on a stretcher.  I assume that every RB will miss at least one game throughout the course of a season and there is more risk when you have a history of them.  With that said, until that injury happens, fantasy owners and the Lions have themselves one hell of a running back.  After a 232 yard 3 TD game in Week 2, Best is the number 2 back in fantasy football.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – On only 16 carries, McCoy totaled 120 yards and found the end zone three times. The Lions defense is certainly prone to big plays, but the Eagles offense isn’t used to such a productive running game.  Kevin Kolb is the starter of this team and while he is capable of leading an effective passing attack, I would not be surprised to see McCoy get more touches than we originally thought he would.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - I really wanted to see him cross the 500 yard mark this week, but fantasy owners will need to settle for 497 yards and 3 touchdowns.  If you were concerned about the passing attack of the Texans after week 1, you aren’t now.

Steelers, DST, PIT – Say what you want about the Jets and their blitzing scheme, the Steelers have the inventor of the zone blitz running their defense.  Dick LeBeau running the show and calling the plays.  Revis may miss some time and if he doesn’t he wont be 100%.  I said in the preseason that defenses rarely are drafted first and finish as the best at the end of the season and the Steelers are off to an early lead even without their starting QB to help the offense keep the defense off the field.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – I really love when players remain consistent while their offense as a whole struggles.  As a fantasy owner I try to find consistent players and if you can average 100 yards per game and a TD while your teams starts 0-2 and struggles on offense then you are welcome on my team.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - This week we did not see the same old Jay Cutler.  He was effective, precise with the football and threw 0 interceptions.  The truly surprising thing to me in this game was the offensive line play of the Bears.  If they can keep it up the Bears might be able to make a playoff run.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – We all breathed a little easier when Andre came back on the field.  Then we all jumped for joy when he caught that long TD pass.  Johnson ended up the top receiver of the week just 14 yards ahead of fellow Texan Kevin Walter who also found the end zone.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – I had high expectations for DeSean Jackson this week and he did not let me down.  Vick and the Eagles offense got DJax involved early when he took a 15 or so yard pass the distance to get this high scoring game started.  Jackson only had the one score, but totaled 135 yards receiving.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – It was nice to see some life from the Jets offense, even before they get Santonio Holmes back.  Sanchez only threw for 220 yards but threw 3 TDs and no interceptions.  The running game is the focal point of the offense so I don’t see any need to go pick up Sanchez in a 10 team league, however if you are in a 2 QB league and he is still available he could be very productive for you when Santonio returns from his suspension.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – The 49ers did better than expected against the defending world champs.  They dictated the pace of the game and did a great job running the ball down the throat of the Saints defense.  At the end of the game, after a great drive by Alex Smith to tie it up, Brees did what he does and led them right down the field to win the game in the last seconds.  My confidence in him has been fully restored and you can’t afford to sit this guy as long as Mike Singletary gets to run his style of offense.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - I am very surprised in the level of production the Raiders are getting from this guy in the absence of Michael Bush.  He may not have had a very high scoring game but touchdowns are not very predictable.  He is 2nd in the league in rushing and has earned the right to have the lead role in this offense.

Duds

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Wow, it is hard to be productive when your offense turns the ball over SEVEN times.  Johnson was only responsible for one of them but he was not very effective with barely over 2 yards per carry.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – Speaking of turnovers, I am concerned with Flacco in the short term after seeing throw for only 154 yards with 1 TD and 4 INTs.  He should be able to rebound, but after a week like that if your backup QB has a decent match up why risk that the slump continues?

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - I don’t know what to say about Garcon’s lack of production the past two weeks.  I am very concerned about what his role will be throughout the season if Manning loses faith in his number 2 receiver. If it doesn’t get sorted out soon then Collie will start to look better and better.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL – I hope you didn’t reach for Jones in your draft.  The axe will fall on someone for the Cowboys lack of production and it wont be Romo or Austin.  Phillips will come into question soon and it looks like with the game on the line the Cowboys would rather give Barber the ball than Jones.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – The Panthers are in trouble after a rough loss to what everyone thought was a bad Buccaneers team.  You can’t start Stewart even in your flex spot until we see if it gets turned around.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI – Nothing, that’s what Devin did during a big win for his team.  He didn’t play much at all on offense and it is not really clear why.  Earl Bennett came back into the lineup this week and Aromashodu owners should watch the situation carefully to see if they need to drop him.

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Well, week 3 of the preseason is where we get the best look at the fantasy players from each team (if healthy) before the season.  And while many people don’t like to use the preseason to impact their rankings, I feel this week is one of the best indicators you can find before your draft.

Packers vs. Colts

Well this was a hell of a game to watch.  You usually don’t get to see quite so many sparks fly in the preseason, but with these two high powered offenses playing for around 3 quarters… It was bound to be a fun one to see.  Since all the insanity with Favre and now Sidney Rice being out half the year I have to think the Packers are now the favorite to win their division.  Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate so far, and Jennings has been much more active in the passing game than last year. He (Jennings) could rack up 1400 yards and 10 TDs no problem this year.

As for the Colts, no need to be concerned.  They had some rough spots caused by, what seemed to me, deliberately pushing the limits of the new ball spotting system.  I hope that the Reggie Wayne doubters have been paying attention, because I think he has had a VERY strong preseason and he will remain my number 3 WR.  Garcon has done a good job separating himself from Collie and Gonzalez and in doing so he earned a bump in my rankings.  Also I am starting to have some concerns about Addai.  He is in a contract year, and the Colts drafted Donald Brown for a reason.  I think if Addai misses just one game he will lose his job permanently to Brown.  The Colts will not want to pay to re-sign a back in his decline.

Cowboys vs. Texans

It is no surprise that the offensive line is the biggest area of concern for the Cowboys offense this year, but even so, Romo spent too much time on his back this week.  If they play this poorly during the season Romo will not be able to stay healthy.  Austin and Witten will maintain their production through these issues, but I am concerned for Felix Jones who seems to get injured a lot as is.

Arian Foster became the first Houston Texan to break 100 yards rushing in a preseason game this week and moved up quite a bit in my ranks as it is becoming clear he will see the vast majority of the carries.  Seeing Slaton back to return kicks shows that they don’t intend to use him like they used to by any means.  Jacoby Jones also had a strong showing in this game, helping his cause for becoming the #2 guy over Kevin Walter.

Bears vs. Cardinals

So far this preseason we really hadn’t seen a glimpse of last year’s Jay Cutler, until this week that is.  The bottom line is with this guy, is he is a gunslinger that makes some bad choices.  You need to expect around 20 interceptions from Cutler this year but you can also expect 30 TDs and around 4,000 yards.  Johnny Knox and Chester Taylor both looked very strong in this game as well but I don’t quite give anyone a bump in the rankings.

Oh Arizona… I thought you were finally going to be a good team, but now there are rumors flying around about them trading away Matt Leinart or cutting him altogether.  It is definitely time to downgrade all the Cardinals in our rankings. Beanie Wells can’t be productive in an inconsistent offense that can’t convert on third downs and between the injury and the QB situation I am afraid that Fitzgerald will have a very bad season (at least by his standards).  Tim Hightower is falling too far in the drafts that I have seen, he will still be their third down guy and if he is hot they will certainly not be afraid to let him get some carries.

Chiefs vs Eagles

First thing first, Jamaal Charles is fine, no worries for fantasy owners here.  He is not supposed to miss any time in the regular season.  After he left the game Thomas Jones did a great job filling in for him, but I still think he will be inconsistent behind a worse offensive line and might actually be more productive as the number 2 with fewer carries and hits taken.  It was good to see Dwayne Bowe get involved a bit more too, he remains a sleeper of mine for the middle rounds.

I remain convinced that the success of the Eagles offense hinges on DeSean Jackson.  So, it was not much of a surprise to me that they did not do well without him after he left very early.  As with Charles, no concern here for fantasy owners… he will be back by week 1.  LeSean McCoy ran well, but did not see a lot of carries.  No adjustments to my rankings for any of these guys.

Other Notable Performances

LaDainian Tomlinson – Gotta start calling him a sleeper.  Watching Hard Knocks may be tainting my reaction here, but I just keep hearing Rex Ryan say “I love being right”.

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush

Joe Flacco

Frank Gore

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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I will never understand Eagles fans, but they now have a new Quarterback to needlessly hate.  I think Kevin Kolb will do fine and having him sit much longer would be a bit of a waste but I still find it hard to wrap my head around getting rid of a player like Donovan McNabb inside your division. The trade also devalued DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin in the fantasy rankings.  I have seen a lot of people call Maclin a sleeper for this year, but I believe there is too much risk with Kolb under center.  He is worth grabbing in the late rounds, but someone that is in a more stable offense is a better way to go.  The success of this team will be largely dependent on their defensive efforts and their ability to keep the pressure off of Kevin Kolb.

Top Fantasy Players

DeSean Jackson – Last season DJax tied an NFL record for 50+ yard touchdown plays in a single season.  He would be in the top 5 of all Wide Receivers if McNabb was still under center.  He could very well finish in the top 5 at his position, but there is a risk in the uncertainty of Kolb.

LeSean McCoy – The Eagles will use the running game to relieve pressure from Kolb, especially in the beginning of the season. Andy Reid does run a pass first offense when able to however he may not have that luxury this year.

Kevin Kolb – While he is the one big question mark that makes this season an uncertainty, with that risk comes some serious potential for a big reward.  There are a lot of weapons at his disposal and he looked great in his two starts last year.  Kolb may be the best backup QB option available.

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Round One
Pick 1 (1) – Chris Johnson: CJ has an absurd mix of power and speed that makes him a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  A guy his size and speed should have trouble between the tackles, but as he proved last season he does not.

Pick 2 (2) – Adrian Peterson: The emergence of Chris Johnson is not why I rank Peterson at number two.  Peterson is in my opinion the most complete running back in the league, but has had some issues with fumbles and is seeing fewer touchdowns with Favre pulling the trigger.

Pick 3 (3) – Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD has a similar skill set to Johnson, but has a bit of trouble running up the middle.  He is a very capable goal line back due to his elusiveness, but does not have the supporting cast to have a breakout year.

Pick 4 (4) – Frank Gore: The Niners had an excellent draft, they appear to be lining up behind Alex Smith and opted to bolster their offensive line in a big way with Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati.  Iupati is one of the most athletic guards I have seen come out of college in a while and will do an excellent job pulling to seal the corner for Gore this year.  The Niners also appear to have rededicated themselves to a physical smash mouth style that matches their coach Mike Singletary.

Pick 5 (5) – Ray Rice: This guy came out of nowhere, and I do not expect him to be the next Matt Forte at all.  Until draft day Rice was my number four back.  After adding a deep threat and much needed talent at the WR position with Anquan Boldin, the Ravens ensured that they will still see consistent production from Rice.  It will be exceedingly difficult to stack eight in the box to stop this guy.

Pick 6 (6) – Michael Turner: Turner has dropped a fair few spots from last season, but it has little to do with him.  The emergence of the 49ers and Ravens on the offensive side of the ball are the primary reasons why Turner is not fourth on this list.  The injury at the end of last year certainly does not help, but I’m not going to downgrade him for it until he proves it was not an isolated incident.

Pick 7 (7) – Ronnie Brown: The Dolphins have a more balanced attack now with Marshall at wide receiver, but Henne is still unproven and the one-two punch of Brown Williams is still going to be the driving force of this offense.  Brown could see better productivity with a passing game to balance the defense.

Pick 8 (8) – Drew Brees: Yes, the Saints lost some talent on both sides of the ball, but regardless of the situation the only player that was always are the center of their success was Brees.  He repeatedly rallied the Saints whether it be the fourth quarter of a game, or after losing to the lowly Buccaneers, and then needing to make a playoff run.

Pick 9 (9) – Andre Johnson: The Texans have their issues, and it is impossible to know what Coach Kubiak is thinking when he puts Arian Foster or Ryan Moats on the field instead of Steve Slaton.  With that said they are a playoff caliber team with a very efficient passing game.  Johnson is the most consistent receiver in fantasy football.

Pick 10 (10) – DeAngelo Williams: With the question at quarter back and the best tandem of running backs in the league to lean on you can expect the Panthers to do just that.  Use the talent at the Running Back position to develop either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen into their Quarterback of the future.

Pick 11 (11) – Steven Jackson: He may be on the decline, but during a 1-15 season Jackson played through injury and was there for every game giving all the effort he had.  He can still be my  first round pick without a doubt.

Pick 12 (12) – Rashard Mendenhall: It is worth noting that the option of taking Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning was available, but you cannot snub the RB position like that with the last pick. Mendenhall is likely to see an increased workload during Big Ben’s suspension, and he will remain the feature back the rest of the season.

Round 2
Pick 13 (12) – Reggie Wayne: This is the only wide receiver on the best passing offense in the AFC that we know their spot on the depth chart.  Whether Gonzalez or Garcon gets the number two job is still unknown and very possibly subject to change.  Wayne has been with Manning for a long time and has developed into an elite receiver.

Pick 14 (11) – Aaron Rodgers: If you’re scratching your head, then you need to look at the stats from the last two seasons.  Rodgers is likely going to be the highest scoring fantasy QB this season, but Brees is likely to have more passing yards.

Pick 15 (10) – Peyton Manning: Comes down to Moss or Manning here, and with Brady and the Patriots on the decline, Manning is the safe pick and the right one here.

Pick 16 (9) – Ryan Grant: Not taking a running back in the first round means you have to take the best one available to you in the second.

Pick 17 (8) – Cedric Benson: Carson Palmer finally has the best receiving core of his career, and he can’t use it because his career is over.  Benson will see 30 carries a game this year just like last year, as long as he is healthy.

Pick 18 (7) – Randy Moss: Despite his teams fall from the elite, they are still a Playoff quality team with great coaching, and more than enough experience to make a deep playoff run.

Pick 19 (6) – Pierre Thomas: Bush will never be an every down back, and Bell is not there to vulture red zone touches.

Pick 20 (5) – Miles Austin: Austin’s productivity was among the best last season, and considering he did not even start until week 5.  I would hardly be surprised if Austin ended up the top fantasy WR by the end of the season.

Pick 21 (4) – Shonn Greene: The Jets showed that they trust and believe in this young guy the way they used him in the playoffs.  Since Rex Ryan has yet to make a decision that didn’t work out for him, I am going to trust him.

Pick 22 (3) – Tom Brady: Brady has not fallen off.  It took a little to recover from his season long injury, but he’s back.  The difference is the team around him is not as good as it has been.

Pick 23 (2) – Larry Fitzgerald: Larry is still the most talented wide receiver in the league, and it only takes one play for a receiver to have a good day for you.  Fitz will remain a red zone matchup nightmare.

Pick 24 (1) – Joseph Addai: Towards the end of his career, but not there yet.  He will not have quite the year he did last year but he should be close.

Round 3
Pick 25 (1) – Vincent Jackson
Pick 26 (2) – Phillip Rivers
Pick 27 (3) – Roddy White
Pick 28 (4) – Matt Schaub
Pick 29 (5) – Beanie Wells
Pick 30 (6) – Tony Romo
Pick 31 (7) – Jamaal Charles
Pick 32 (8) – Ryan Matthews
Pick 33 (9) – Clinton Portis
Pick 34 (10) – LeSean McCoy
Pick 35 (11) – Ricky Williams
Pick 36 (12) – Joe Flacco

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San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

This really should be a VERY entertaining game for us to watch on Christmas.  I expect a high scoring affair so go ahead and bench these defenses for your playoff or super bowl match-up.  Rivers should do very well this weekend as well as Gates with Keith Bulluck out the middle will be much easier to attack.  Obviously Johnson is a must start as he is almost a shoe-in for a hundred yards on the ground and a score.  You may see a bit more receiving yards than normal here as like with Benson last week the Chargers are good at marginalizing their opponents rushing attack.  They can’t make CJ irrelevant as he is just as big a threat out of the backfield.  Britt is still your fantasy option at QB but Gage will vulture a few targets from him so town down expectations.

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing yards are at a premium so tone down expectations on Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall.  Rice is a must start however because of his worth in the passing game but you shouldn’t expect a huge day.  Mendenhall would likely be sitting but other starts from this game are Derrick Mason, Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward.  I like Holmes quite a bit, more than Ward this week as the Ravens are vulnerable to the deep threat and thats what he is so he has a huge upside.  Downgrade Heath Miller as the Ravens have the line backers to cover a TE in man coverage pretty well.

Denver Broncos vs Philadelphia Eagles

This game could have its fair share of fireworks as the Broncos are desperate to prove that last week was a fluke and the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league.  DeSean Jackson is an obvious must start as there really doesn’t appear to be any defense that is prepared for his speed.  They do have a good secondary and should do an okay job limiting him from too big of a game, but Celek should should benefit from all the cover three and quarters coverage that Jackson will force.  Stay away from Kyle Orton, and every Eagle running back you may have.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

The Jaguars have to win to stay in the playoff hunt and the Patriots can clinch the division with a win so both teams have something to prove.  The normal cast of starters will still apply and you can expect a big day from the Patriots receivers as the Jags are pretty bad at corner back.  Downgrade Garrard some as he never looks quite as good away as he does at home, but I do expect Mike Sims-Walker to do just fine as the Patriots secondary is pretty weak itself.  Oh and Maurice Jones-Drew… rumor has it he’s pretty good so go ahead and start him too. =P

Have a Very Merry Christmas, I will have player rankings updated tonight or before the game Christmas Day!  Please forgive me if I don’t do a mailbag article though, I don’t see me nieces and nephew enough as it is!

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Weekly Adds

Jerome Harrison (CLE) - He just had the third best running performance in NFL history on Sunday and he plays the 28th ranked run defense in the league next week.  Even if your not gonna use him you grab him so no one else can.  Also, don’t use him… this is the third week in a row where one of the two Browns RB’s have been one of the waiver wire’s hottest pickups.  Think about that, everyone was bidding for Harrison two weeks ago, then they dropped him for Jennings, and now your gonna drop him to pick back up Harrison?! Yea, your going to but your not likely going to use him!  DeAngelo Williams owners are the ones who should be thinking of using him, not really anyone else.  In my league I am making a claim but have AP, Benson, Forsett, and use my flex to play DJax, Moss, and Miles Austin each week.  I only want Harrison because my opponent has DeAngelo.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - I’ve been saying to grab up any available handcuffs for a couple of weeks, and if you found the best backup RB in the NFL (yardage-wise) sitting on waivers then you’ve got to be pretty pleased right now.  DeAngelo Williams is hurt, and without knowing how active he will be in Week 16 in which you are probably playing in your Super Bowl, Stewart will likely be seeing the vast majority of the work.  Oh, and he went over a hundred yards against Minnesota to help Matt Moore and the Panthers get a victory.

Maurice Morris (DET) - I wasn’t too wild about Morris going into this week, but then again I didn’t expect the Lions to be competitive with the Cardinals.  So you can’t be wild about the prospect of him playing the 49ers this week, but if Stafford comes back they will be able to get balance and Morris will have a chance to be decently productive.  If you lost Williams and have to go to waivers to replace him you could do worse, but try for Harrison.

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) – We’ll have to see how he does tonight to let us know how bad we want him, but he faces one of the top passing defenses in football.  If he can do it tonight he can do it any time and is deserving of a spot on your roster.

Jason Snelling (ATL) – Turner hurt his leg after just one rush for 7 yards Sunday.  I would not expect to see Turner test this too much as the Falcons playoff hopes remain dim despite the win.  Snelling will still be splitting with Norwood and is not a great option but worth a spot on your roster.

Jermichael Finley (GB) – Finley has been doing great as of late.  He is looking to be near or in the top 10 this week in my rankings as the Packers continue to use him to create phenomenal match-ups over the middle.  A few weeks ago I saw him lineup and tailback then motion to the wide-out position and catch a TD pass from inside the ten yard line.

Dump List

I’m going to include a fair few people I have had on here before so any new readers can double check and make sure they don’t have any people they really should drop.

Marshawn Lynch, Devin Hester, LeSean McCoy, Mario Manningham, Ryan Moats, Julius Jones, Brian Westbrook, Dwayne Bowe, Willis McGahee, Tim Hightower, Malcom Floyd.

Feel Free to participate in my live Q&A on Yahoo! Sports Message Board.  Good Luck in your Super Bowl or Playoff match-up!

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Love

Pierre Garcon (IND) – Great match-up and Wayne will be taking it easy.  Even if he plays every snap they wont really be sending Wayne over the middle, but it will just be safe routes that can’t bang him up any further.

Mike Sims-Walker (JAC) - His team is going to be in a shoot out, and he’s been great in home games this season.

Miles Austin (DAL) – Despite losing twice the Cowboys have still had big plays and moderate success on offense.  The Defense is letting them down which only means the passing game will be relevant the whole time.  Austin is a good start this week as well.

Marques Colston (NO) - He’s out of his slump and finding the end-zone.  And on that offense he’s a threat on every play.

Derrick Mason (BAL) – The Bears secondary has been weak and if you think Mason isn’t tough you need to check out his TD grab on Sunday…

Anquan Boldin (ARI) – If Fitz doesn’t see any decrease in play time he will do better than Boldin, but that wont matter much because the Cards are mad and have two soft opponents to beat up on for your playoffs.

Andre Johnson (HOU) – Overshadowed by Marshall’s day Sunday, but I expect Johnson to have a better two game span than Marshall with a good match-up Sunday.

Chris Johnson (TEN) - If VY is banged up these guys still have a chance.  Young changed the attitude in Tennessee since he took over and should he miss time or be limited they will lean on CJ and that is great for you.

Jamaal Charles (KC) – Even when the Chiefs can’t put points on the board or throw the ball really at all, Charles still finds a way to preform quite well in Fantasy terms.

Thomas Jones (NYJ) - Even if Ryan comes back I think Turner doesn’t and the Jets control this game.  Jones has quietly been a top back this year and has a nice match-up for the week I face him in the league I commish!

DeSean Jackson (PHI) - Your definitely going to want to be starting Jackson when he sets the NFL record for most number of 50+ yard TD plays.  Two last week and the 9ers don’t have that good of a secondary.  (they beat the Cards with pressure not coverage.

Knowshon Moreno (DEN) - There likely wont even be anyone for him to split carries with against a great match-up.  This is the match-up you’ve been looking forward to so play him!

Antonio Bryant (TB) – My sleeper pick of the week is Bryant, he is an amazing talent on a team that cannot utilize him well.  Freeman has shown flashes of brilliance this year, and while the last two match-ups were nightmares, Seattle’s pass defense is no one’s nightmare.

Adrian Peterson (MIN) -You gotta love that against a statistically very good rushing D last week.  Favre wont be the focal point of this offense unless they need him to be.  The Carolina secondary is the strength of the defense so why not hand the ball off to Peterson all day?

Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) - Sleeper pick for sure but Jacobs is a bum so do not be afraid to play Bradshaw in the flex if you need him.

Hate

Roddy White (ATL) - Revis island… its like a Bye week when your starting QB is playing…

Ryan Grant (GB) – Against the Steelers there is no RB that I love.  Despite their troubles defending the run is what they do.

Matt Forte (CHI) - You hate him too… and versus the Ravens?! Sit him!

Jason Snelling (ATL) – That Jets defense will confuse the array of back-ups the Falcons will likely be playing with.

LeSean McCoy (PHI) -If you own him you hate him by now and do not need my urging to sit him down!

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) – Expectations even need to be lowered for Williams, but you’re gonna have to start him.  Minnesota’s Defense is even more tough and confident with Winfield back!

Eli Manning and Steve Smith (NYG) – All the Skins do is defend the pass and they are used to playing Eli and Smith.

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