Giants at Cowboys

If your a football fan, you have to watch this game.  The Giants and Cowboys have to play each other twice still and Dallas has just a one game lead for first place in the NFC East. New York lost to the Packers last week and the Cowboys had a HUGE opportunity to go up by two games against the Arizona Cardinals but they blew it and lost in overtime.  The Giants have had a lot of trouble stopping opposing running backs over the past month to month and a half as teams have really forced the running game in an effort to slow the elite pass rush of New York. Last week the Cowboys made a concerted effort to get Felix Jones more involved and this limited the number of carries that DeMarco Murray saw.  This strategy led to a disappointing performance for both backs and by the end of the game, it was back to the DeMarco Murray show but it was just too late. On the flip-side the Giants have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL and fantasy-owners can go ahead and expect the top 10 performances of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to continue against a very average Cowboys secondary that is currently ranked 14th in the league. The bottom line for fantasy owners is that all the offensive players that you have been starting have to be started again.  Some crazy things happen when two NFC East teams face off and when the playoff implications are THIS high, I think we can expect more of a shoot-out than a defensive struggle over field position.  Miles Austin should be active in this game assuming he finds a way to practice without a setback but I think the Cowboys will continue to use Laurent Robinson in some of the 2 wide receiver sets.  I like the Cowboys to squeak out a win here after such a disappointing game last week with a heavy dose of DeMarco Murray in the running game to keep Eli Manning and his slew of receivers on the sideline.

Texans at Bengals

I hope you like defense because your going to see it in this game.  Despite adding Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia to the roster, Houston will continue to start T.J. Yates at QB and rely on him limiting mistakes and taking what the Bengals defense give him.  This game will be about field position and field goals and as a result, you have to downgrade all your fantasy options out of this game.  Arian Foster and A.J. Green remain must-starts due to their track record of performing admirably regardless of match up and to a lesser extent, Cedric Benson also retains enough value to be a decent starter this week.  A.J. Green has been incredibly consistent and has been able to beat every secondary deep with one exception, The 49ers back in week 3.  Houston’s defense has been great this season and is one of the best that Green will have to play this season but after remaining a top 10 receiver against the Steelers twice and the Browns, who are surprisingly the best pass defense in the NFL so far this season, I am not going to bench him now.  Andy Dalton however is not likely to do much more than find Green on one big play so I would definitely look elsewhere as opposed to starting Dalton. Anyone not mentioned needs to be left on your bench unless they are a kicker and even the guys that are mentioned as starters anyways are easily capable of being a disappointment so tread carefully and hope your studs come out of this game with a decent number of points.  I like the Bengals to win this CLOSE game because they are mildly able to pass the ball and eventually Benson will wear out this Texans defense.

Bears at Broncos

Speaking of defensive match-ups… The offense-less Bears are facing off against the story of the past month named Tim Tebow.  Tebow has just been winning games in whatever way has been available to him.  This game could easily be 6-3 going into the 4th quarter (or Tebow-time) and yet by the time it is all said and done, Tebow should be in the area of 20 fantasy points.  Regardless of how well Tebow plays, his ability to run the ball for positive yardage every time he tries translates into a very consistent fantasy QB.  Most leagues also only give 4 points for a passing TD so when Tebow runs one in, it means an extra 2 points.  Tebow remains a top 10 guy for fantasy owners and Willis McGahee is also a very quality RB2 option despite the rough match up.  I think the grind-it-out style of the Broncos will eventually break the Bears D after their offense gets almost nothing accomplished on the game.  I wouldn’t start a single Bear on offense unless you lost Forte and are desperate for an RB, then you can play Barber but do NOT expect much at all from him. Eric Decker is still a poor flex-play option for standard leagues as he is the most likely of the Broncos receivers to catch a deep ball.  Make Thomas have a big game in consecutive weeks before you risk starting him in the playoffs. The Broncos continue their unpredictable run for the divisional title and win this one.

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The fantasy playoffs are about to begin and with some fairly big injuries occurring this week, there is a significant chance to add some good depth to your roster as well as pick up some key handcuffs that could set you ahead of your opponents and give you an edge when the whole season is on the line.

Pickups

Marion Barber, RB, CHI – With Forte potentially out for 2-4 weeks, Barber is bound to be this week’s hottest pick up.  The schedule is really rough for the Bears over the next couple of weeks.  With Denver and Seattle in the next couple weeks, each having a solid rush defense, I think that Barber will be mediocre at best without a quality QB to stretch the field vertically. I wouldn’t bend over backwards to get him unless your now missing Forte going into the playoffs.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Thomas had a big game this week but I am not sure you should trust him as a starter yet.  Decker is still the guy I like the most to catch one of the few deep balls from Tebow and lets face it… there aren’t many of those to go around.  I  would scoop up Thomas anyways though.  You don’t want an opponent beating you off a goofy, freak performance.

Brad Smith, WR, BUF – Buffalo’s offense isn’t what it was over the first 6 weeks of the season and it isn’t going to turn back into that team either.  They have had a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball and no Fred Jackson obviously hurts the most.  With that said, they are finally playing competitive football and I think you can expect some decent production.  Buffalo goes against San Diego next week, who teams have definitely been able to move the ball against and Smith stepped up at WR with 7 grabs on 10 targets for 72 yards.  He could make a decent flex-play if you’re desperate but either way he is a quality player to have on your bench.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Detroit is going to have to turn the ship around quickly to make a playoff push this season.  Jahvid Best’s absence has made a big difference and Smith was able to bring back that dimension of the offense when he is on the field.  Injured or not, if he is active next week they will use him for as long as they can.  Smith was by far the Lions’ best offensive weapon in the first half and they simply can’t afford not to use him if he puts on his helmet next week.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, MIN – He didn’t overwhelm us with numbers this week (6 catches for 90 yards) but I was impressed with his performance none-the-less.  Aromashodu saw 15 targets this week and it feels as though there is a decent connection between him and Ponder.  Percy Harvin is going to draw a lot more attention after another monster game and with the Lions for opponents next week, you can do worse in a deep league.  Detroit had a lot of trouble getting to Brees last night and if Ponder has time, Aromashodu just might have a big game.

Dump List

Jackie Battle, RB, KC – Battle’s touches and production have been down over the past few weeks and since Thomas “old man river” Jones saw more carries and Dexter McCluster was more productive, you can let Battle go for a crack at Barber if you need to.  I would still hold him as the best Chiefs running back but with the playoffs starting next week, hopefully you aren’t desperate enough to need him!

Early Doucet, WR, ARI – Looking at the stat line, you might think that Doucet didn’t touch the ball on Sunday against the Cowboys.  That is simply not true.  He caught two passes for zero yards.  Doucet has has some OK games this season but he hasn’t had double-digit fantasy points since week 1 and there are likely some guys out there with more upside. Go get Brad Smith or even Golden Tate.

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - The Saints are as healthy as ever and the backfield is very crowded.  Thomas is essentially an after-thought for Sean Peyton and should be for fantasy owners too.  Little reason to have him on your team unless there are no better options or Ingram goes down to injury.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT – He is still owned in a third of leagues, believe it or not.  I don’t think I need to justify his spot on this list.

DJ Ware, RB, NYG – Bradshaw was back and saw some use on Sunday so I expect Ware is done seeing significant work.  If it wasn’t for converting on a 2 point conversion, he would have posted a goose-egg for fantasy owners. He is simply just a handcuff at best and even then, he will be sharing carries.

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Austin Collie, WR, IND - Active

Chris Ivory, RB, NO - Inactive

David Garrard, QB, JAC - Active

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI - Active

Jacob Tamme, TE, IND – Active

Joseph Addai, RB, IND – Inactive

Marion Barber, RB, DAL – Inactive

Matt Cassel, QB, KC – Active

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC – Active

Roy E. Williams, WR, DAL – Inactive

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Active

Terrell Owens, WR, CIN - Active

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Pickups

James Jones, WR, GB - If you are in a very competitive league with people that do their homework, Jones will not still be available.  He had a huge day filling in for Driver this week and if he can keep it up while Driver gets back to 100% it is entirely possible that Jones becomes the new #2 receiver for Rodgers and the Packers. Don’t let him remain unowned in your league for another day.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD - With Ryan Mathews leaving this game after re-aggravating the same injury that has been hampering him all season, it is easy to see a scenario where Tolbert takes the reins of this rushing offense and with him already getting the goal line carries he will be a top 20 RB if Mathews does miss time after the Chargers week 10 bye.

Mike Goodson, RB, CAR - Admittedly, you are going to need to be pretty desperate to pick up and start Goodson.  But, with DeAngelo Williams being out for 2 weeks in a row, Jonathan Stewart leaving this game with a concussion and Tyrell Sutton unable to finish the game either… Goodson could see 20 plus carries next week if Williams is not able to go.

Nate Burleson, WR, DET - This may all be a waste since Stafford is hurt again and has been the reason that Burleson has value.  But, if you are in a PPR league you should go for it anyways.  Calvin Johnson runs the deep routes all game and Burleson handles all of the possession routes.  In standard formats you should watch to see if Stafford is going to be OK before making a move on Burleson.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Anyone who thought Brett Favre was done was mistaken.  There is no quit in that senior citizen and that is demonstrated by him putting up a career-high 446 passing yards in a tough overtime victory over the struggling Cardinals.  This value will only hold until Sidney Rice returns and that could be as soon as this week.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU - With a game coming up against the Jaguars, who can’t cover receivers to save their lives, Jones is a sleeper pick for Week 10.  Jones is a big, physical receiver much like Andre Johnson and this is one of the only weeks left on the schedule that is favorable for the Texans passing attack.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - The Giants are an incredibly streaky team that goes from looking like an elite Super Bowl contender to looking inept on both sides of the ball.  For now, they look more like one of the best teams in the NFC and with a game against the Cowboys coming up in week 10, all their receiving threats get a significant upgrade in the rankings this week.  Manningham should be able to cover for you as a flex play this week if your having injury or bye-week issues.

Mike Thomas, WR, JAC - Thomas is my third option as a injury/bye-week fill-in this week.  The team that allows the second most points per week to the WR position is the Houston Texans.  This game should be filled with big passing plays due to how inept each secondary is and before their last game in week 8, Thomas was the best receiver for the Jaguars.

Dump List

Darren Sproles, RB, SD – It really looked like Sproles was going to go back to being used by the Chargers offense this week considering all the injuries to receivers and how effective he is in the passing game.  Unfortunately even when Mathews was knocked out of the game, Sproles did not get used and shouldn’t be trusted at all the rest of the year.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – He just doesn’t have it in him anymore.  The Panthers offense is struggling and there is no telling who will lineup at QB for them any given week.  That inconsistency and the below-average play of Stewart make him a complete bust for this season, so get out while you still may be able to salvage your team!

Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Vick just doesn’t look for Celek with any regularity.  You may not be able to find a better option on free agency, but if you can then don’t feel bad about dumping Celek.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - I don’t care how dynamic of a play maker he is, you can’t wait forever for this guy to prove his worth.  He is on a bad team, with an inconsistent offense and since he has only had one decent week all year, you can’t trust him to start him… so just drop him and let him be someone else’s headache.

Marion Barber, RB, DAL - The Cowboys are a bad team.  It may not have looked like it going into the season, but as they fight with the Bills for the number 1 draft pick and are completely unable to run the ball, there is no reason to hold on to their number 2 RB.

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Pickups

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – Blount had a big game this week with a soft match up against the Cardinals.  The Cards made a change at QB midway through the game and they were actually able to achieve some offensive production.  I liked Blount a lot in this game considering how inept the Cardinals offense has been over the past few weeks.  This game ended up being close, but by adding a dynamic running game to the mix, the Buccs were able to get a well-deserved win.  Look for Blount to stay the feature back for Tampa Bay and develop into a great RB 2 option.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Jahvid Best burst onto the scene at the very beginning of the regular season and since week 2 he has been average at best.  This past week Smith and Best split carries evenly (12 a piece)  Smith’s stock is rising.  Due to his increased involvement in the passing game and break away speed, I would rather own Best than Smith… but that will change soon given how long it has been since Best has found the end zone.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – The Raiders have been a surprise team this year so far.  Their biggest area of concern is at the WR position.  They really need someone to step up and prove to be a consistent threat (other than Zach Miller).  We can’t just assume Heyward-Bey is that guy after one game, but given his ability to make plays in a variety of ways (including a 30 yard run) he is the only WR on that team worth owning… just in case.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – It is not yet known if Britt will miss any time yet, but since non-contact injuries have a tendency to cause a player to miss a few weeks (see Malcom Floyd) someone will need to pick up the slack at the WR position in Tennessee. This is def a double-edged sword though with Vince Young also leaving the game with an ankle injury, but Kerry Collins is one of the best backup QBs in the NFL and will keep the Titans offense afloat.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC - I wouldn’t go get him, but with how well David Garrard played this week… if you are in a deep format or are just simply a believer in Garrard, MSW and the Jaguars… then holding this receiver on your bench for a couple weeks to see if he rebounds isn’t a terrible idea.

Keiland Williams, RB, WAS – This is a very deep league suggestion only, given that Portis will be back before long and the RB situation in Washington will be a complete mess.  Williams is slowly finding his way into the Skins’ offense and is getting touches that we all thought where reserved for Torain.  Given how seemingly random the carries get shared under Mike Shanahan all three guys are own-able (in 14+ team leagues) until one of the backs in Washington wins over the coach.  My guess is Portis though.

Brandon Tate, WR, NE – After the emergence of Deion Branch in his first game back with the Patriots, it is very likely that whoever grabbed Tate bailed and re-released him.  This was a mistake!  If this happened in your league go grab him.  He has a gorgeous long TD catch this past week where he extended his route down the field and got open for Brady, who was under pressure.  Plays like this make a QB fall in love with their WR pretty quickly and the Pats need a deep threat.

Dump List

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI – With the Cardinals able to move the ball effectively this week and putting up 35 points, it was surprising to see Hightower get only two total touches.  LaRod Stephens-Howling was a surprise to take the 2nd most touches… but since it was only four you can’t add him yet.

Marion Barber, RB, DAL - With the Cowboys running game being entirely ineffective so far this season and Felix Jones being a dynamic player, I see no reason to hold onto Barber any longer.  He will be at best a goal line back the rest of the year and with Kitna at QB his chances from the one will be limited.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – He has been really disappointing in his #2 role so far this year.  With DeAngelo Williams missing last week due to injury it was expected that Stewart would perform admirably in his absence… but that was incorrect.  He had 14 carries and only 30 yards rushing in a very disappointing outing. If he can’t produce as a lead back against the Rams… why would you bother to trust him when he returns to his #2 spot on the depth chart? Once we know Williams is back you can drop Stewart.

Patrick Crayton, WR, SF - He had a bad day this week in a good win for the Chargers who are trying to claw their way back into playoff contention.  With Vincent Jackson coming back soon and Malcom Floyd and Legadu Naanee coming back from injury soon, just bail on Crayton now.

Chris Ivory, RB, NO - Thomas and Bush are due to return this week, barring any setbacks in their recovery.  After a bad game statistically, in a tough win last night, Ivory is not worth a roster spot any more.

Ladell Betts, RB, NO - See Chris Ivory.

Eddie Royal, WR, DEN – Fantasy owners might not realize this given the numbers that Orton and Lloyd have been putting up… but the Broncos suck. After dropping to the 9ers in England this week the Broncos are now 2-6.  With the yearly Chargers resurgence in November and December the Broncos have eliminated themselves from the playoff race already and it is only a matter of time before the young-guns are allowed to take over.  Enter Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas.

Roy Williams, WR, DAL – Did you guys hear? Roy Williams isn’t that good!  After being one of the receivers that let a pass deflect off his hands and get intercepted this past week, it is apparent that he won’t be developing any trust with Kitna soon.  While Kitna may be an adequate back up… he will not be able to keep three receivers alive for fantasy owners.

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Cowboys @ Vikings

This is going to be one hell of a football game.  Both the Vikes and the Cowboys were popular Super Bowl picks and are now 1-3 struggling to stay alive for playoff consideration.  Neither team has really been able to establish a balanced offensive attack before last week.  The Cowboys have been among the worst rushing teams in the NFL but were finally able to get Felix Jones up over 100 yards last week vs the Titans on just 15 carries.  The Vikings made a high-profile trade to acquire Randy Moss to help them stretch the field and open up the passing game. On his 5th day back with his old team he was able to find the end zone in a losing effort to the Jets.  With some more time to learn the offense and scheme for their new weapon the Vikings should be able to get a big home victory to put them selves right back into the race for the NFC North.  They will be effective with an aerial assault against a secondary that looked foolish last week against the Titans.  Look for the usual studs to live up to their expectations. (Moss, Peterson, Harvin, Austin and Romo)  Stay away from Jones and Barber vs the front seven of the Vikes.

Ravens @ Patriots

I love playoff re-matches that occur in the first half of the season!  The Ravens ended the Patriots season last year and they will want their revenge.  The problem they will have won’t be the lack of Moss, but the inability of their defense to cover anyone down the field. Ray Rice had his best game of the season last week and if they are able to maintain that balance in their offense then I would expect a big game from Rice, Flacco  and Boldin.  The Patriots offense replaced Randy Moss with Deion Branch and will need to re-invent themselves.  Brady and Welker are the only fantasy players I trust against this great Ravens defense.  Many people have speculated that Welker is likely to see a lot of double coverage and his production should decrease as a result, but I don’t see that happening.  Welker is a possession receiver that runs his routes flawlessly every time.  You cannot double someone that is running a slant route because typically the double team would come from a safety and not someone lined up on the line of scrimmage.  If you put two people on Welker at the line, then you have one person on someone else and Brady will abuse this and get the deep play without Randy.  I like the Ravens in a very tough road game.

Saints @ Buccaneers

I am a sucker for divisional match-ups but with the Buccs beating the Saints last year and currently being higher in the standings, this game will show us the future of this division.  If the Saints fall this week then everyone will become a Buccaneers fan and for good reason.  Josh Freeman has been playing with poise and maturity that players his age don’t typically have.  Mike Williams rose ahead of a fellow (higher drafted) rookie, Arrelious Benn, on the depth chart and has scored in three of his first four games.  Smart money is on the Saints in this game and you can feel confident about starting any Saints you may have on your fantasy team (Thomas, Colston and Brees).  As for Buccaneers, Williams is too consistent to ignore at this point and is on his way to being a top 20 WR and if you are in a 2QB format you should be fine using Freeman as well.

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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STUDS

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – 383 yards and three scores… oh and he ran one in too!  Rodgers is back in stride in fantasy terms, last week his arm wasn’t needed with Grant running wild.  He is definitely still your guy!

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) - 503 yards and 3 scores including a game winning last second score to win the game.  If you put all your chips down on Big Ben at QB then you are likely not in need of advice at this point… However if you had an adequate replacement and are wondering about Ben next week I put him behind Alex Smith and Carson Palmer this week so hopefully you don’t need to take the risk.

Matt Moore (CAR) – Where’d this guy come from? Don’t know but I don’t trust him.  If you are in a DEEP QB league then he might be a better option in what is likely to be a passing affair next week.  Even with that said he’s a last resort.

Jerome Harrison (CLE) - If you played Jennings last week I think you’ve learned your lesson.  You can’t count on these one week wonders, and when thats the mistake you made in the Playoffs or Super Bowl, it becomes a VERY long off season.  With that warning in place and at the fore front of your mind… Harrison has a great match-up

Jamaal Charles (KC) – This guy was such a huge Waiver Wire grab…. I am still amazed at how consistent he is making plays.  Keep using him as he remains a top 20 back.

Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) - It’s always a relief when your Studs do their job, and thats what this guy is!

Maurice Morris (DET) - Morris had a 126 yard game with a score on Sunday when he wasn’t expected to do all that much.  I say pick him up so he can’t be used against you… with that said I don’t trust him this late in the season.

Marion Barber (DAL) - Every aspect of the Cowboys game Saturday was as good as it has looked all season.  With how awful the Skins looked last night I have got to think that Barber should be worth a flex spot next week.

Beanie Wells (ARI) – Hightower is almost an after-thought in Arizona now-a-days.  Beanie had a good day and lived up to the high expectations we all had in this soft match-up.

Vincent Jackson (SD) – This is why you shouldn’t have panicked when he had his drought.  He is one of the best in the league.

Steve Smith (CAR) – Smith is fast proving to doubters that he was not the reason for his recent short comings.  This guy has been rebounding quite well since Moore took over and should have a chance to make some plays next week.

DeSean Jackson (PHI) - DJax is developing into the most explosive player in the league.  This guy defines big-play ability and regardless of match-up he’s going to need to be started.

Jermichael Finley (GB) – Match-up nightmare and fast developing premiere  Tight End in the NFL.

John Carlson (SEA) – Not really a stud, but he exceeded expectations and was the only Seahawk worth a damn this past week.

Todd Heap (BAL) - Can never expect two TD’s but it’s nice to have.  I still like Finley and Davis as pick-ups more though.

Giants (D/ST) – That was some impressive pressure they got on the Skins last night.  They wont do this big again, but that was a domination if i’ve ever seen one.

DUDS

Cedric Benson (CIN) - One of his worst games that he played in all year… the team was down and HAD to throw… this is not anything to worry about with the Chiefs coming to town.

Sidney Rice (MIN) - I’m definitely down on Rice going into a cold weather game, but he is still a fine option for WR 2 and a great flex option.

Greg Olsen (CHI) – I’m sure you are done trusting him as I am. Finley, Davis, Boss, Heap… go find one!

Thomas Jones (NYJ) - Surprisingly bad performance from an incredibly consistent back.  If your still around on in a consolation game then he’s likely still the guy.

Roy Williams (DAL) - The Cowboys continue to demonstrate that Williams is an expendable part of their offense.

Steve Breaston (ARI) – Yea he had a great match-up and should have done better than ONE POINT…. but you know its risky starting a 3rd ranked WR on his team so you can’t be too mad.

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Studs

Tony Romo (DAL) – Even though it was December and the Cowboys lost, Romo out preformed all other QBs in Fantasy Football last week!  The Cowboys still need to find answers going down the stretch, but primarily on the defensive side of the ball.  Romo has some pretty average defenses coming up, and with the teams being the Chargers and Saints we can be sure that the Boys’ll be throwing plenty.  The Redskins are the opponent in Week 16 for most super bowl games in Fantasy which is not a great match-up, I’m sure most of you are still having nightmares about the last Cowboys Redskins game!

Kurt Warner (ARI) – If you risked starting Warner last week good for you!  The Cards got a big win over one of the NFC’s top teams, and really made a statement about their chances going into the playoffs.  They did not look like a Super Bowl contender in the early half of the season but all that matters is how you finish.  The next three match ups are against the NFLs 27th, 16th, and 32nd ranked passing defenses in that order.  These teams are (again, in order) the 49ers, the Rams, and the Lions.  The Rams are still a soft match-up for any passing game despite their surprisingly high rank, can’t ask for any better match-ups from your best QB!

Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – If you started Jacobs in week 14 then you are a braver man (or woman) than I.  Even in this big statistical game where he ended up the top Fantasy RB in the league he looked terrible with the ball.  Jacobs’ rushing stats were not enough to break double digits even with his rushing TD, but on one beautifully set-up screen play Jacobs found a whole to go 74 yards for a score (13 fantasy points of his 22 point total).  Jacobs is not the answer to your fantasy team or the New York Giants and should not be counted on as a starter in the playoffs.

Knowshon Moreno (DEN) – Moreno put up the highest fantasy point total of his rookie season this past week against the Chiefs (20 points).  He may not yet be an auto start, but consider that he plays the Chiefs again in Week 17 if that is when your Super Bowl is, as well as the Raiders in Week 15.  Moreno should definitely crack your starting lineup in those games, and probably even in his other match-ups next week vs the Colts and in Week 16 when he faces the Eagles.  Also if you were wondering Buckhalter still made an impact with 113 yards Sunday, but I still can’t see him threatening Moreno’s value as he gets most the carries and the goal line duties.

Robert Meachem (NO) – My apologies to any of you who asked about Meachem over the past week.  It has been easy to excuse his big games as a result of Colston being shut down, but after five of them it just cannot be ignored any more.  It is very difficult to talk about why the 5th weapon in any offense is a reliable fantasy play (Colston, Henderson, Thomas, Bush being who I feel are more valuable players), but numbers do not lie.  Meachem has 7 catches, four TDs and 43 more yards than number one receiver Marques Colston over the last five games.  I talk a lot about the short memory fantasy owners need to have, and Meachem owners should start to get excited.  This can’t mean that Meachem is the new top fantasy receiver in New Orleans, but it sure makes him the number 2 option over Henderson.

Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – In Fantasy Football terms Boldin actually out preformed Fitz on Sunday, but this duo was 1 point apart and both inside the top 5 at WR this week.  Fitz continues to be Warner’s favorite target as he was thrown to 12 times (catching 8 of them) against the Vikings for 143 yards and a score.  Boldin caught one fewer pass on three fewer targets but got two TDs to go along with his 98 yards.  I mentioned the very good match-ups Warner has already so I won’t repeat them, I’ll just say you don’t want to play against either receiver down the stretch!

Pierre Garcon (IND) – A career day for this young Colts receiver on Sunday.  This guy has quite the future ahead of him as long as he is on the field with Manning, but this season he will be near impossible to rely on as a WR1 or WR2 at any point.  For those of you in deeper formats or with flex positions feel free to use Garcon as a WR3 or flex play in the playoffs as his 136 yard performance vastly over shadowed star Reggie Wayne’s 48 yard day!

Jermichael Finley (GB) – Since his injury earlier this season Finley has been a beast.  I have seen numerous games where the Packers motion him around to create the ideal match-up and expose the defense and when executed properly Finley is a monster.  I think Finley will follow a pretty similar career path as Marques Colston down the line (do you remember being able to play Colston as either a WR or a TE? I do!) as long as he stays healthy.  Monday night Finley caught seven passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns proving that he deserves a shot on any Fantasy Football roster in the playoffs.

Duds

Adrian Peterson (MIN) – 5 pts – The whole team struggled, and to get out of this funk, you should see a heavy dose of AP to force teams to focus more on him and leave the passing game open.  Still no worries for AP down the stretch.

Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) – 7 pts – What can ya say other than a win is a win.  The Jags pulled a close win from the Texans on Sunday and did so with a pretty disappointing performance from both their offensive stars.  MJD is still a top 3 RB.

Frank Gore (SF) – 3 pts – Gore owners have to be worried as they watch Smith develop and the offense migrate towards a pass first philosophy.  If you have another option think about it long and hard because Gore’s production is slipping fast.

LeSean McCoy (PHI) – 2 pts – I have no clue what to make of the RB situation in Philly other than to say that McCoy is the best healthy back there.  You’re not dropping him, and you will likely still be playing him this week, but lets hope he gets the ball next week!

Greg Olsen (CHI) – 0 pts – Two bad teams met Sunday and the Bears won, kind of.  17-9 was the score of this game, and if I was a Bears fan I would be looking for a rock to climb under right about now.  Forte was the only bright spot this week as Olsen was blanked.

Felix Jones and Marion Barber (DAL) – 1 pt each – How bout them Cowboys in December?! We all thought Romo’s name would be on this side of my list this week lets admit it, but both RB’s in Dallas got just one fantasy point this week.  Neither can be trusted through the playoffs, but I would play Jones in a flex spot if the match-up was right.  The Cowboys win when he gets the ball, end of story.

Mike Sims-Walker (JAC) – 1 pt – MSW is still a WR3 or flex play down the stretch but the whole offense is inconsistent, even in a win.

Ray Rice (BAL) – 4 pts – You don’t likely have a better option and I’m not worried about Rice down the stretch either.  Neither team wanted to win much last night judging by the penalties, and with so many long distances to go for a first down Rice just wasn’t able to be a factor in THIS game.

Reggie Wayne (IND) – 4 pts – What can I say, Sunday was the Garcon show… Wayne is still Manning’s go-to-guy so he can be yours as well, still an auto-start.

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Love

The Seahawks! – against the Rams, who love to give up big points to the passing game.  Forsett will have a huge game too!

Jason Snelling – he is no Michael Tuner, but he’ll do! ESPN is projecting 123 yards and two TD’s I won’t go that far but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did it!

Marion Barber – Raiders are terrible and Barber will be the workhorse to get this offense back on track.

Michael Crabtree – Look at what Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to do to this Jaguars defense.  I expect Crabtree’s second consecutive game with a TD.

Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco – Two studs at their position against a team that let the Lions score at will, gotta like the odds!

LeSean McCoy – He looked great last week and should have a monster game versus a soft run D that is also the top passing D.

Ricky Williams – Bills did contain MJD pretty well last week but that is the only back all season that they can say that about.  Trust the history more than the single performance! (for all Bills players!)

Brandon Jacobs – Ahmad Bradshaw was on crutches tuesday and now has two injured feet!  Jacobs will be the primary back again… If he wants to keep his career going he needs to step it up.  I think he will!

Hates

T.O. – Phins are too good on D to trust the inconsistency at QB

Matt Forte – great run D and unless he gets it done in the air he shouldnt do much at all!

Matt Shaub – Coach Kubiak keeps ruining this team by taking away thier balance.  Without a running game they cannot be successful, and CHRIS BROWN GOT MOST THE CARRIES?! Over Slaton!? Insanity!

Pierre Thomas – This should be a shootout, and Thomas doesn’t get the goal line carries.

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