Question 1: Asked by @E_RICHT5F3LD

There are a ton of options at QB in my league who should I go with? Tebow, Moore, Sanchez, Smith, Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick or Rivers.

Answer

I would have to say that it’s Tebow time!  Unless your league has some goofy scoring, I would take the consistency that Tebow provides.  His rushing ability has made it so that he is able to put up a solid point total every week.  This week he faces off against a tough Bears D but they should be able to wear down Chicago’s defense by keeping their offense off the field.  Without Cutler or Forte to help extend drives and win the field position battle on offense, I don’t see how they are able to bottle up the consistent and punishing run-game of the Broncos.

Question 2: Asked by @JoshVitale

Who do I start at Flex: Plaxico, Benson, D.Moore or K.Smith (if healthy)? Or should I just quit #fantasyfootball?

Answer

Quitters never prosper Josh… Play Benson.  He has a rough match up and while he is probably going to have a mediocre at best week, he is a feature back and therefore will see enough carries to make him worth the start.  We can reasonably expect A.J. Green to force Houston to respect the deep ball and this will open a few running lanes for Benson.  Whether or not he disappoints will come down to whether or not he punches one in but I think you have to play him in the playoffs, where risks tend to back fire.

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Patriots at Jets

The AFC East is still up for grabs.  Brady and the Pats have already lost more games than they did during the entirety of last season and after losing the the Giants when they didn’t have their two top offensive weapons (Bradshaw and Nicks), I am starting to think they might not be as invincible as they’ve been in years past. Thankfully for them, I think they match up well against the Jets. Welker has not really had too much issue being productive against the Jets in the past and usually Revis does not follow him all over the field. Teams have had success against the Pats this season by locking into man-to-man coverage on the less than elite receiving corp of New England and sending as much pressure as possible at Brady.  In order to get the win, Sanchez needs to play a perfect game and not give up any turnovers. If he can do that, there will be plenty of yardage and opportunities to get points on the board.  The Pats secondary has been just awful this season and still may prove to be their Achilles heel, much like it was for the Texans last year. Brady and the Pats need to lean on Law Firm and the running game in order to limit the time that their defense can be out there giving away the game.  I like the Patriots to win a high scoring affair after New York gets off to a slow start and is unable to catch up.  Welker and Brady are must-starts despite the less than appealing match-up but you should stay away from Deion Branch.  Upgrade Sanchez and the Jets receivers going against the NFL’s worst pass defense and feel free to use Shonn Greene in his typical RB2 role.

Saints at Falcons

Atlanta sits a game behind the Saints for first in the NFC  south and with the game being at home, I like Atlanta in this game.  They need to get back to running most of their offense through Michael Turner so that Roddy White and Julio Jones are able to see more man-to-man coverage and make big plays. Neither team has a scary defense that should make you concerned about giving them a start this week.  Atlanta needs to find a way to slow the Saints’ pass rush and and Turner is their best bet to do so.  Once they are able to bring the 8th man into the box, their receivers will be able to make the difference and get the win.  This game could easily go either way but Matt Ryan is almost a completely different quarterback at home and the Saints lack the depth at receiver to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Start all your typical players with confidence as this is not likely going to be a low scoring affair but do NOT expect a repeat performance from Julio Jones, who I anticipate being a very hit or miss player for his fantasy owners.  I am considering him as a very good flex play for the rest of the season unless he is able to consistently hit double digit points.

Lions at Bears

Don’t worry I won’t make  a joke about Tigers here, but this game should make a HUGE difference later on as the NFC wild card spots start to get figured out.  I think we all expect the Packers to win the NFC North and I would be surprised if at least one more team from the division didn’t make the playoffs.  Detroit is up a game on the Bears at the moment and getting this win would be huge for their playoff hopes this season. Detroit’s front seven has slipped in recent weeks and their issues with stopping the run has caused them to have issues late in games when they had been able to be so effective early on this season. Unfortunately for them they face Matt Forte this week and he has been simply incredible for the Bears.  For the past few weeks the Bears’ offensive line has been playing much improved football and when Jay Cutler has time to throw, this Bears offense is very difficult to stop and the Lions’ secondary has not been playing that great either. This is a very difficult game to predict the outcome for however with the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connection being near impossible to stop.  I wouldn’t use a Lions receiver outside of Megatron unless I absolutely needed to and I also am downgrading the Lions’ running backs.  If Best can play, which I doubt, I wouldn’t think he would see his normal workload and Maurice Morris is not quite good enough to run wild against the Bears stout defense. I like Chicago to win this close game and Cutler has a relatively clean jersey at the end of the game.

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Love

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Run DMC tops my RB rankings this week with a great matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City is allowing an average of 105 yards per game and a TD to opposing running backs. And I think we can all agree that McFadden is better than your average back. I think Oakland is going to lean heavily on the running game while they break in Carson Palmer at QB, so Michael Bush should see a slight increase in carries this week as well.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – The Vultures are circling in Dallas as they do every time the Cowboys have a losing record and they sit at 2-3. I am not concerned that much about them personally as Romo is a gunslinger and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it backfires. They lost to a clearly awful Patriots team last week (seriously, are we supposed to hold this against Jason Garrett or Romo?) and have a really tough match up against the Rams this week, who are 0-5. In all seriousness, you can’t bench Austin or Dez Bryant this week against a team allowing an average of 28.4 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (worst in the NFL).

Tim Tebow, QB, MIA – I can barely believe it, but I have Tebow at the 10th spot in my rankings this week. He plays against Miami whose offense has trouble staying on the field between turnovers (-7 on the season) and the worst 3rd down efficiency in the NFL (they are converting on a pathetic 24% of third downs).  Tebow no longer has Brandon Lloyd to throw to, but it is his rushing ability that gets him to crack my top 10.  He is not likely to have a large passing total but with his ability to rush the ball, he should be able to have a pretty nice game and earn a win for his Broncos.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – The concern with Wells has always been durability, so while he is healthy I think he has to be started. It looks like a bad match up against Pittsburgh this week, but looks can be deceiving. The Steelers have allowed three different opposing running backs to reach 100 yards this season and even Indy was able to put up 97 yards with their time-share situation.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – Wallace has stayed a quality fantasy receiver despite the lack of pass protection and the Cardinals have struggled to stop #1 wide receivers. They allowed very good games to Steve Smith (CAR), Sidney Rice, Hakeem Nicks and Santana Moss so far and I think Wallace is more talented than all of these guys.

Kellen Winslow, TE, TB – Winslow has failed to produce stats on a consistent basis, but his talent really should not be up for debate.  The Buccs offense has struggled at times and they certainly do not feature the TE.  This week however, I do not think you can afford to bench Winslow. He plays against a good Chicago defense that appears to be weak against opposing tight ends. The Bears are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.8 points per game) and Freeman will very likely need his safety valve receivers against this pass rush.

Hate

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – The Sanchize has been good for fantasy owners for the most part this season and when he wasn’t, we were able to see if coming from a mile away (i.e. that TERRIBLE game against Baltimore). This week he faces Philip Rivers and the Chargers and I see another bad game coming. The Jets want to pass to set up the run now and I don’t see Sanchez as good enough to pull this off against a good defense. I feel like the Jets are built to run a ground and pound offense still and think San Diego pulls off another win this week.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – The only thing that has Williams clinging to the top 20 in my ranks is the bye weeks. The guys on bye that I would start over Williams (if they were playing obviously) are Steve Johnson, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. You’ve probably gotta play him, but I would hope you arent expecting too much from a guy that has been a huge disappointment thus far.

Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE – I haven’t heard that Hillis is definitely out this week, so I ranked both players. This drops them both from where they would be if we already knew but either way, I don’t want to start Hardesty unless I have to. Seattle is surprisingly 5th best in the NFL at fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and have a better run defense than people seem to realize.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he did ok, but you should not expect a career game this week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – Jacoby Ford is still the guy I want to play this week and it’s still because they use him in a wider variety of ways.  With a new QB that hasn’t played a down all season so far, I expect Oakland to lean on the running game and Ford is used in a lot of different packages and scenarios to try and get him the ball in open space. He is the second best play-maker on this offense after McFadden and something tells me that Kansas City will have their eye on DMC a lot. I don’t expect much from the aerial attack in Oakland this week.

Tashard Choice, RB, DAL – Even with the bye weeks, I am not too big on either of the fill-in RBs for Dallas this week. The one I want to play is Murray though.  Last week, Murray saw twice the carries that Choice did and with Jerry Jones shopping Choice around for a possible trade, I’d like to think they give Murray the lion’s share of the work this week. Both guys are decent plays if you are desperate though, just don’t expect too much.

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Bears vs. Lions

The Bears have something the Lions want. The title of “Division Champ”. They can’t win that this week but they can certainly help their cause considerably. The story of this game will be the Bears’ offensive line, which has played terribly this season.  The Lion’s front seven on defense has been able to make up for their secondary with a great pass rush.  Also, the run defense has been really good through the first four weeks and we can expect them to contain Forte on the ground. Don’t worry fantasy owners, he’ll get enough rushing yards to compliment his receiving total and remains a must-start and a top 10 RB. Cutler is a decent QB2 this week, should your league allow you to play two, and his receivers are all too inconsistent to be worth even a flex spot as even Johnny Knox has almost fallen outside of my top 40 receivers.  Calvin Johnson is quite possibly the MVP of the first quarter of the season with remarkable consistency as he has hauled in two touchdowns in every single game thus far. Stafford has also joined the ranks of the elite fantasy QBs. Injuries remain a long-term concern in my opinion but until that happens, he is still the guy throwing to Megatron and he has led the Lions to 4-0.  I like the Lions to win at home in the dome, but I would not be at all surprised if it was a relatively low-scoring game.

Packers vs. Falcons

Last year, the Packers handed the Falcons one of their only two home-losses of the season. That game also ended the season for Atlanta because it was in the divisional round of the playoffs. I actually like Atlanta to win this game in a shootout. The beat Green Bay at home last in week 12 of last season, but it was far from a shootout. This year, both defenses are not quite living up to the expectations that most of us had for them. This should make for a lot of big plays and Julio Jones is inside the top 25 at wide receiver for the first time, making him a very good flex play. Hopefully he can find his way into the end zone for the first time in his career. Most people are staying completely away from the Ryan Grant/James Starks situation, but I think Grant makes a pretty good flex play with six teams on their bye week. Starks did not impress me last week with Grant sidelined and the week before that, Grant outplayed Starks considerably. Rodgers, Jennings and White are all must starts as always.

Jets vs. Patriots

The Jets sure need a win to try and pull even with Buffalo for the number two spot in the division.  If they could pull it off and Buffalo loses to Philly, which I expect will happen, there would be a three-way tie at 2-2 atop the AFC East. That was fun wasn’t it? Let’s be serious, I like the Patriots to win this one handily. Rex Ryan’s defense has some explaining to do after two very mediocre performances in a row and an inability to contain the running game. I also don’t think Darrelle Revis can stop Wes Welker the way the Patriots have been using him over four weeks.  There is no one better at running shallow crossing routes to draw linebackers into trying to cover him and if the Jets really do force Revis to follow him all over the field, the rest of the Patriots receivers will be taking turns being open even deeper down the field. I also think the Jets offense will be able to be productive against a Pats defense that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.  If Sanchez can avoid stupid mistakes, Santonio Holmes could be in for a big day. I have him ranked is a viable WR2 or flex play. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the most likely back in New England’s committee to see carries at the goal line, so he remains the highest ranked of the three. Stevan Ridley HAS out performed Law Firm over the past two weeks though and might be worth a flex play in deeper formats however.

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Studs

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – That’s it, I am done fighting it. Cam Newton is now to be treated as the top 5 QB that he has been playing like so far for fantasy owners. Only Tom Brady and Drew Brees has passed for more yards so far on the season and one of Newton’s games was in a monsoon. Ron Rivera and the Panthers coaching staff have done a great job of game planning to help him feel more comfortable. This has meant employing a spread-style offense and letting Cam play from the shot gun.  I had my reservations about Cam this week against the Bears but he blew me away and he has maneuvered his way to being an elite, must-start QB every week from here on out.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – Last week the Bears seemed afraid to try and run the ball, this week Forte got 25 carries and racked up a staggering 205 yards on the ground with a TD just for good measure. I don’t know how long Mike Martz can keep this rushing attack going, but it is the only chance the Bears have of overcoming their O-line issues. Either way Forte is a top 10 back with his involvement in the passing game, but if they continue to run he might be a top 5 back.

Ravens, D/ST, BAL – In my Key Matchups article on Thursday, I stated that I thought the Ravens would keep Sanchez in check and force turnovers to win the game. I didn’t expect quite this dominating of a performance but I think we may have found the best fantasy-defense of 2011. The Ravens finished this week as the #2 scoring “player” in standard leagues with a whopping 32 points.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – We just didn’t see this coming as Wells returned from an injury that kept him out in Week 3. When healthy, expect big games from Beanie as he has had a TD in every game he has played as well as at least 90 yards each time as well. You can’t ask for more from a RB2 in my opinion.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – This was a fluke, I wouldn’t even go pick up Garcon just yet. It is hard to call 146 yards and two scores a fluke, but I did it anyways. Garcon only caught two passes and each was a big scoring play, but he also dropped some very catch-able balls and at best I see Garcon back to a frustrating player that is bound to have some serious consistency issues.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – Foster looked like a beast this week against Pittsburgh. Tate was a quality back in his absence and I was never too sold on Foster for this season after he got banged up. I saw Tate splitting time with Foster, but I now think I was wrong. Foster was a punishing physical runner and showed his break away speed on a long TD run late to seal the game. Consider him back to being a top 5 back.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Megatron is just hands down the fantasy football MVP of the first quarter of the season. He is on pace for a mind-blowing THIRTY TWO touchdown passes this season.  It is not likely that he can keep hauling in two TD passes per game the rest of the way, but he will no-doubt finish strong and have a career year.

Duds

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – The Cardinals secondary is full of holes and after the Giants torched the Eagles in Week 3, I expected a big day from Manningham. It didn’t quite happen, but both Nicks and Victor Cruz DID have good games. I am not worried about Manningham yet, but Cruz is clearly going to be a long-term factor in the passing game and might eat into Manningham’s targets a little bit.

Tim Hightower, RB, WAS – I touched on this a bit yesterday, but Hightower saw limited work as he banged up his shoulder against the Rams in week 3.  The Bye week is well-timed for putting this behind him but with Torain running so well, it’ll be VERY difficult to trust any of the Redskins’ RBs come week 6.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – I really just don’t see Sanchez as a viable starting QB for fantasy owners. If you saw this game, you probably have little trouble agreeing with me. No matter how good the opposing defense is, a QB should NEVER have negative fantasy points and I would have no trouble dropping Sanchez if i had him as my backup. Rex Grossman, Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton are all guys I would rather use a bench spot on.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE – The Patriots spent an absurd amount of time in two tight end formations before Hernandez went down with an injury.  Now they only have one on the active roster and he did almost nothing against the Raiders.  Treat this as a fluke, because he is such a great red zone target for Brady. You just can’t afford to bench him.

Devery Henderson, WR, NO – The Saints receivers are getting back to healthy and Henderson and Meachem are back to the “too risky” category for me.  Someone will have a big game each week, but I think it is just too big a headache to try and guess who it will be each week.

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49ers at Eagles

Well clearly this week is light on the  really good match ups, since Alex Smith’s team is making it into my preview article.  But oddly enough the 9ers sit at 2-1, in first place of their division and the Eagles are currently at 1-2 in last place of theirs. The so-called dream-team has some work to do as they figure out how to work as a team and keep their QB from being battered bruised and broken before the bye week. The Eagles secondary is by far the most talented group in the NFL and yet Eli Manning picked them apart last week and their line-backing corp is a legitimate weak spot that makes them vulnerable to the run.  The 49ers offense however has looked sluggish and down right bad so far despite the winning record.  Their biggest threat, Frank Gore, has been a HUGE disappointment for fantasy owners and even last week the backup Kendall Hunter seemed faster into the holes and seemed to be able to find better creases in the defense.  The only chance the 9ers have to steal a win on the road this week is for Gore to step it up and be the player he has been for the past few years.  If he is able to keep drives alive and be an effective runner, then the 49ers will have a shot.  Their front seven is going to be able to reach Vick plenty in this game as the Eagles have yet to figure out their offensive line issues.   Vick is coming off a concussion and what they thought was a broken non-throwing hand which turned out to be a bruise and if the pressure is getting to him and the 49ers can get a running game clicking, this could become a very close game.  I wouldn’t start any 49ers apart from Vernon Davis and Frank Gore (only out of sheer necessity as he continues to plummet in my ranks with each terrible performance). And you can feel comfortable starting all your Eagles play makers, even if Vick is for some reason not in the lineup they would be OK in this match up. I think the Eagles will prove to be too tough for the 49ers and if Gore continues this slump, it could get ugly.

Lions at Cowboys

Detroit finally appears to have things turned around as they have been an explosive offense over the first three games and are still undefeated as they head down to play the Cowboys in Dallas. If both teams were healthy I would probably take the Cowboys at home but with just one quality receiver to cover, I think the Lions’ offense will lead them to a shocking 4-0 start in what may turn into a shoot out. Tony Romo won’t be as banged up this week as he was in week 3 and I think he is able to connect with Witten and Bryant quite a bit. You will want to start all of your fantasy players in this game as I don’t think either secondary matches up well against the quality of the passing attacks in this game.  Jahvid Best’s value will continue to depend on his receiving ability and the big play and he remains, in my eyes, the best flex play available. Calvin Johnson and his two TDs in every single game has become the top fantasy WR in the NFL and Matthew Stafford even cracked my top 5 at QB. Look for the Lions to win a nail biter here and for everyone to have a good statistical performance in a high scoring game.

Jets at Ravens

I do not like this match up for the Jets. This new look, pass-first, Jets offense is not as impressive to me as the ground and pound attack that has taken them to two consecutive AFC championship games.  This should be a close game, but I definitely think that the Ravens are able to force turnovers and keep Sanchez in check throughout this game.  I am looking for the Ravens to use Ray Rice to expose the weakness of the Jets Defense… stopping the run. I would not expect to see a big game from ANY receivers or QBs in this game and would look to find a serviceable replacement for both Sanchez and Flacco if you’ve been using them thus far. Santonio Holmes is the one guy that is probably worth a flex start as he is just the one that is most likely to pull off a big play. I think these teams are definitely both playoff teams, but this could get ugly for the Jets.  Sit everyone not named Ray Rice and brace yourselves for a one-sided Ravens victory, Jets fans.

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Love

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The Falcons are on the road and have not been playing that great so far this season.  They have gotten down early and this has minimized Turner’s impact on each of the first three games.  Do you think Seattle’s offense can get off to a blazing start and keep the Falcons passing the entire game? I don’t.  I don’t like the Seahawks’ rush defense and I think Turner might be in a for a really big game. Double digit points should be just about guaranteed.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – The Lions’ offense would be the biggest talk of the NFL if it wasn’t for the Bills and this week Stafford has a great match up against a weak Cowboys secondary. The Cowboys offense is banged up and could have troubles sustaining drives against the Lion’s VASTLY improved defensive unit. This will lead to a lot opportunities for Stafford and with Megatron pulling down 2 TD passes per game, there is no reason to not ride out the wave.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – The Giants face off against the Cardinals, who I think might have the worst pass defense in the NFL this season.  The currently are ranked 25th and have faced Carolina, Seattle and Washington.  None of these teams have top-end passing attacks and the Giants are coming off of a big game through the air against the most talented secondary in the league.  I have my concerns about their chances this year as well as the play of Eli Manning, but last week lessened them and the match up is just too good to ignore.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – The Jets just did not look like Rex Ryan was in charge of the defense last week as Darren McFadden ran all over them to give his Raiders a big win.  Ray Rice is a premiere back in this league and after he shredded the Steelers in week 1, I am just simply not at all scared of what would normally be a poor match up.  I think the Ravens match up very well against the Jets and will win this game on the legs of Rice.

Rex Grossman, QB, WAS – The Monday night game was conservative and hard fought.  Grossman put up OK numbers and didn’t kill fantasy owners that needed to use him last week.  This week the Skins get to play the Rams in a dome. After watching Flacco tear the Rams’ secondary apart last week I think Grossman has a great chance for a really good game. St Louis is not as competitive so far this season as they were last year and I am choosing not to overreact to a mediocre offensive outing in an NFC East rivalry game.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN – Buffalo has been an entirely different team this year.  They have been able to stop the run and put up huge numbers on offense. One weakness they still have is at linebacker. Last season the Bills allowed 11 TDs to opposing tight ends (worst in the NFL) and an average of 9.2 fantasy points per game (also worst in the NFL).  That average is down to 8.7 so far this year, but have only faced one legitimate TE (Gronkowski) and he tore them apart.  It is also worth noting that this weakness is why Wes Welker went crazy last week on short crossing routes.  I look for the Bengals to try and mirror this approach and with Dalton playing this well, it should be a relatively effective strategy.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – I won’t be shocked if Harvin doesn’t have a big day, but Harvin is the one spark that the Vikings have in their receiving corp and without Eric Berry, the Chiefs secondary is far more vulnerable to the deep play.  I personally like safe and consistent producers, but I can’t ignore the high likelihood of Harvin ripping off a long TD run or catch against this secondary.

Hate

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – The Jets offense has become much more about the passing attack and I don’t think that is the kind of QB that Sanchez is best suited to be. So far he has proved me wrong and put up some quality numbers.  I do not think it is very likely to happen in this game and think that the Ravens will be able to force some bad decisions out of Sanchez. Don’t let his early production fool you, I do not think he is a legit #1 QB for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – Most people thought that Tolbert was the guy you wanted to draft from the Charger’s backfield because he was available much later and likely to see a lot of goal line touches. This was affirmed in week 1 and since then, it looks like we were dead wrong.  I am not jumping ship yet, but the Chargers have not been playing inspired football in recent weeks and despite a good match-up I don’t think Tolbert is a very good start this week. I want to see how the work load is distributed in a couple weeks when the Chargers are back to their old selves again.  I wish I could figure out why they are so bad early in the year and so good late…

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – What is it about all the RBs who received big contracts this off season? they all seem slow and unable to find a crease to run through.  Williams hasn’t been widely discussed as a bust because Chris Johnson and Frank Gore are taking all the heat, but he has just been awful as of late and Jonathan Stewart is clearly the guy worth starting if you need a Panther RB in your lineup.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – This has nothing to do with his recent performance really. I didn’t expect him to improve on last season much, if at all and the Buccs are a young team that is sstill establishing their identity. A big part of this identity needs to be LeGarrette Blount and he needs to see at least 20 carries to be as effective as they would like.   I think the Buccs will take a conservative approach and try and run early and often against a bad Colts rush defense. Williams is still the go-to guy when they need a big play through the air, but his targets will be down as there is not likely to be much need to take risks against the win-less, Peyton-less Colts.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - Have you met Darrelle Revis yet Mr. Boldin?

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Question 1: Asked by Blake via email.

I currently have Eli Manning as my QB and Colt McCoy is available. Should I add Colt?

Answer

I definitely would.  Eli has looked terrible and has some serious injury concerns at WR.  I do not see how he has a good game against the Philadelphia all-star secondary and think McCoy is a better option to start most every week.  I would not drop Eli though as depending on the match ups for certain weeks, he will be a better start and the Giants are capable of getting it together and finishing the season strong.

Question 2: Asked by @Jersymikejr

I see you have Cam Newton in your top 10. Does that mean I should start him over Kevin Kolb or Mark Sanchez?

Answer

Yes sir, I think that Cam should be able to pick apart the Jaguars secondary while Blaine Gabbert struggles early to find a rhythm.  The Jaguars have been particularly bad at covering even moderately talented receivers and Steve Smith should have little trouble getting open and making some big plays.  I think your Panthers are going to get their first win and I wouldn’t be too surprised if it wasn’t close.  Another nice feature of playing Newton is that the Panthers have seemed to be unable to open rushing lanes for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart so far this season and the Jags have played solid rush defense.  Even late in the game, Carolina is going to have to pass to ensure that Jacksonville isn’t able to mount a comeback.

Question 3: Asked by @mike_campbell

#Broncos WR Brandon Lloyd or RB McGahee this week versus #Titans?

Answer

Lloyd is the biggest weapon this offense has and while McGahee fits the John Fox scheme well and looks to become the lead back, he will still share his work with Moreno and Lloyd has far more upside.  I was really impressed with Lloyd last season and considering he was a big part of the passing game in week 1 and I do not see it as a fluke.

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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Jets at Patriots

The Battle for the AFC East will be fought on Monday night this week as the Patriots play host to the cardiac Jets.  The Jets managed to win this match up when they were at home in week 2 this year, but in order to demonstrate they are a true threat to make it to the Super Bowl… they will need to prove they can go on the road and beat an elite team.  Despite the fact that the Patriots have the same record, I don’t foresee them being able to beat the Jets in this match up.  The Patriots’ pass defense has fallen to last place in the NFL and with the development of Sanchez coming along smoothly and the integration of Santonio Holmes into the Jets offense being finished, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Jets complete a comeback win inside the last two minutes of the game.  Because of the Jets defense you should stay away from starting any and all Patriots players on your fantasy team… except Brady. Upgrade Sanchez and his receivers as the Patriots have proven they are not able to keep receivers covered for very long at all.  The Patriots run defense is solid, but they are not good enough to lower expectations for LT or Shonn Greene.

Texans at Eagles

The number two game on my list of must-see games this week is the Thursday night game on NFL Network tonight.  The Texans are another pass defense that does not seem to be able to cover anyone and until last week they appeared to have a strangle-hold on the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL.  On the other side of the ball Michael Vick is having an MVP season this year.  He has thrown just ONE interception thus far and while facing off against such a terrible secondary, Vick is sure to have a huge performance in this game and he has been locked in as my top ranked QB for the week.  Also look for great performances from each of the Eagles’ top two receivers as each has been a beneficiary of Vick’s play.  Lots of people have lowered their expectations for DeSean Jackson, largely due to the consistency of Jeremy Maclin… but no receiver in the league has the big-play ability that Jackson does and I feel he is a must start for the rest of the way.  The Eagles defense has been able to contain most of the RBs they have faced this season, but with Foster being the top rusher of the season… he remains a must start and it is reasonable to expect a good game from him this week.  Andre Johnson is still a stud and since he was not suspended, you still have to start him as he is the best all-around receiver in the NFL.  I expect a big win for the Eagles if they get Asante Samuel back in their lineup for this match up, but if not… this game could go just like the Bears game did.

Steelers at Ravens

A football fan’s favorite match up comes in as the third must-watch game of the week.  The past 10 or so years have featured elite defenses from both the Steelers and Ravens every year.  Since they face each other twice a year, there is also a rivalry element when these teams meet… which almost always leads to a hard-fought and entertaining defensive battle.  So, if you want to see long passing TDs and breakout offensive performances… your going to want to find a different game to watch.  Downgrade EVERYONE involved in this game on the offensive side of the ball, though with the struggles of the Ravens defense this year… your Steelers are likely still starters for your week 13 fantasy match up.  I expect the Steelers to create a big play or two with Big Ben’s scrambling ability and that should be enough to get the win in this game.  As for the Ravens on your fantasy team, don’t expect a big game from  Boldin… but with Ray Rice’s involvement in the passing game he will remain a top 20 RB.

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