Pickups

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Portis was beaten up all game and Torain was left to pick up the slack.  Averaging 3.89 yards per carry on 13 carries he was able to find the end zone and come up big for any fantasy owners who were digging deep enough to use him.  Shanahan is well known for utilizing his unknown running backs to the best of their ability.  As an interesting side note, Portis was the most successful of Mike Shanahan’s discoveries and one of the only to have a long career.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – You still won’t be able to start Sanchez in anything but a deep format, but if you are being riddled by injuries and/or bye weeks then Sanchez is proving to be a very realistic option.  The offense is soon to get Santonio Holmes back and Sanchez should actually see an increase in production once they are able to stretch the field.  Oh, he hasn’t thrown an INT yet on the season either. The Jets will be able to make it to the Super Bowl if Sanchez can keep up this safe yet efficient play style.

John Kuhn, RB, GB – The RB position is a mess in Green Bay but with bye weeks upon us such a productive goal line back on one of the leagues best offenses deserves a spot on someone’s team in every league.  Here is hoping you have some of your FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) left after grabbing Jackson earlier.

Jason Avant, WR, PHI – Avant was a decent flex play late last season but in the Mike Vick offense he disappeared.  Once Kolb entered the game Avant was the only receiver he was able to work into the mix and could help you out as a bye week plug-in over the next couple weeks.

Tony Moeaki, TE, KC – He was just on his bye week and if you have an underachiever with his bye coming up, this guy is the real deal.  He fits in well with the Chiefs offense since Cassel doesn’t have the arm strength to throw the deep ball consistently.

Michael Bush, RB, OAK - I don’t know exactly how the situation between Bush and McFadden will flesh out, but for now at least it looks like both of them will be able to be fantasy relevant.  Bush should only be used as a flex play until this proves to be a regular occurrence.

Javon Ringer, RB, TEN - He has ability to be a big play threat and while he is not start-able while CJ is playing he is looking to be one of the best hand-cuff options out there.

Dump List

James Jones, WR, GB - He couldn’t get the job done against the Lions, so even if he does have a few good games this season it is unlikely you would be starting him anyways.

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - The Cardinals offense is inept and Hightower will be losing more and more touches over the course of the season to Beanie Wells.  If I owned him I would just bail out now before it gets any worse.  There must be someone out there with upside.  You can ignore all of this if your in a PPR league.

Laurence Maroney, RB, DEN - Moreno can’t come back fast enough.  The Broncos are a pass-first offense in what is proving to be a very competitive division.  I expect them to stick with what is working for as long as Orton is red hot.  Maroney has done nothing with his two starts so get rid of him now instead of two weeks from now.

Darren Sproles, RB, SD – This was the second week that Mathews was inactive or limited by injury and Sproles has yet to be a factor in the offense.  No reason to hang on to him with Tolbert the obvious number two.

Lee Evans, WR, BUF – While Fitzpatrick has provided a spark for the Bills offense the past two weeks Evans has been unable to have any substantial production.  I know he was up against the Jets, but there was lots of junk time in that game and Evans couldn’t even get open against a prevent defense.

Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, CLE - Delhomme will give him some value, but it will be VERY hit or miss and I couldn’t trust him even if I was in bye week hell.

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Studs

Jahvid Best, RB, DET - The concern that I have with Best is not about his talent, it is about his health.  He has a history of injuries from college including a pretty nasty looking neck injury where he was wheeled off on a stretcher.  I assume that every RB will miss at least one game throughout the course of a season and there is more risk when you have a history of them.  With that said, until that injury happens, fantasy owners and the Lions have themselves one hell of a running back.  After a 232 yard 3 TD game in Week 2, Best is the number 2 back in fantasy football.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – On only 16 carries, McCoy totaled 120 yards and found the end zone three times. The Lions defense is certainly prone to big plays, but the Eagles offense isn’t used to such a productive running game.  Kevin Kolb is the starter of this team and while he is capable of leading an effective passing attack, I would not be surprised to see McCoy get more touches than we originally thought he would.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - I really wanted to see him cross the 500 yard mark this week, but fantasy owners will need to settle for 497 yards and 3 touchdowns.  If you were concerned about the passing attack of the Texans after week 1, you aren’t now.

Steelers, DST, PIT – Say what you want about the Jets and their blitzing scheme, the Steelers have the inventor of the zone blitz running their defense.  Dick LeBeau running the show and calling the plays.  Revis may miss some time and if he doesn’t he wont be 100%.  I said in the preseason that defenses rarely are drafted first and finish as the best at the end of the season and the Steelers are off to an early lead even without their starting QB to help the offense keep the defense off the field.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – I really love when players remain consistent while their offense as a whole struggles.  As a fantasy owner I try to find consistent players and if you can average 100 yards per game and a TD while your teams starts 0-2 and struggles on offense then you are welcome on my team.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - This week we did not see the same old Jay Cutler.  He was effective, precise with the football and threw 0 interceptions.  The truly surprising thing to me in this game was the offensive line play of the Bears.  If they can keep it up the Bears might be able to make a playoff run.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – We all breathed a little easier when Andre came back on the field.  Then we all jumped for joy when he caught that long TD pass.  Johnson ended up the top receiver of the week just 14 yards ahead of fellow Texan Kevin Walter who also found the end zone.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – I had high expectations for DeSean Jackson this week and he did not let me down.  Vick and the Eagles offense got DJax involved early when he took a 15 or so yard pass the distance to get this high scoring game started.  Jackson only had the one score, but totaled 135 yards receiving.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – It was nice to see some life from the Jets offense, even before they get Santonio Holmes back.  Sanchez only threw for 220 yards but threw 3 TDs and no interceptions.  The running game is the focal point of the offense so I don’t see any need to go pick up Sanchez in a 10 team league, however if you are in a 2 QB league and he is still available he could be very productive for you when Santonio returns from his suspension.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – The 49ers did better than expected against the defending world champs.  They dictated the pace of the game and did a great job running the ball down the throat of the Saints defense.  At the end of the game, after a great drive by Alex Smith to tie it up, Brees did what he does and led them right down the field to win the game in the last seconds.  My confidence in him has been fully restored and you can’t afford to sit this guy as long as Mike Singletary gets to run his style of offense.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - I am very surprised in the level of production the Raiders are getting from this guy in the absence of Michael Bush.  He may not have had a very high scoring game but touchdowns are not very predictable.  He is 2nd in the league in rushing and has earned the right to have the lead role in this offense.

Duds

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Wow, it is hard to be productive when your offense turns the ball over SEVEN times.  Johnson was only responsible for one of them but he was not very effective with barely over 2 yards per carry.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – Speaking of turnovers, I am concerned with Flacco in the short term after seeing throw for only 154 yards with 1 TD and 4 INTs.  He should be able to rebound, but after a week like that if your backup QB has a decent match up why risk that the slump continues?

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - I don’t know what to say about Garcon’s lack of production the past two weeks.  I am very concerned about what his role will be throughout the season if Manning loses faith in his number 2 receiver. If it doesn’t get sorted out soon then Collie will start to look better and better.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL – I hope you didn’t reach for Jones in your draft.  The axe will fall on someone for the Cowboys lack of production and it wont be Romo or Austin.  Phillips will come into question soon and it looks like with the game on the line the Cowboys would rather give Barber the ball than Jones.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – The Panthers are in trouble after a rough loss to what everyone thought was a bad Buccaneers team.  You can’t start Stewart even in your flex spot until we see if it gets turned around.

Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI – Nothing, that’s what Devin did during a big win for his team.  He didn’t play much at all on offense and it is not really clear why.  Earl Bennett came back into the lineup this week and Aromashodu owners should watch the situation carefully to see if they need to drop him.

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Vikings at Saints

There are no shortage of big games to kick off the 2010 NFL season and none are bigger than the Thursday night kickoff game.  The much-anticipated rematch of the NFC Championship game is sure to be one hell of a show with two high-powered offenses squaring off against opportunistic defenses.  To me this match up boils down to how much pressure the Vikings can get on Drew Brees with just the front four.  Last season the Vikings led the NFL with 48 sacks and they are facing the offensive line that had the fewest sacks allowed.  If the Vikings can get Brees uncomfortable in the pocket and leave seven people in coverage they should be able to control the ball with AP and get a few big plays on the Saints suspect secondary.  Brett Favre has significantly fewer weapons at his disposal this year, however if the Saints can limit the effectiveness of the ground game or force a few turnovers they should win this prime time slug-fest.  Pierre Thomas owners should look to their bench for an adequate replacement, but don’t look too far because with the release of Ladell Betts and only Reggie Bush to contend with Thomas should have a decent game… nothing too big is really possible facing last years best run defense and Bush getting the majority of the passes.  Look for big games from Marques Colston and Percy Harvin as each secondary has its issues defending against the deep ball.

Ravens at Jets

There is no denying how much Darelle Revis means to the Jets as they try to improve upon last year’s loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship game.  New York is missing its best vertical threat in Santonio Holmes and will need to rely on its ground game to win what is bound to be a fierce, defensive,  field position battle.  If Sanchez can keep from throwing interceptions to the Ravens defensive backfield that will be lacking ball-hawk Ed Reed, then the Jets should be able to win this in a close battle.  Anquan Boldin makes his debut in a Ravens uniform this week, but he is stuck on Revis Island and should not have a productive week compared to how he will do down the stretch.  I think Shonn Greene and Ray Rice owners should lower expectations for this week given the caliber of defense on the other side of the ball, but you are likely still going to be starting them anyways so no real change made there.

Bengals at Patriots

This match-up does not have quite the same appeal as the Vikings Saints offensive showdown, but for old school hard nosed football fans this could be the most exciting game of the week.  The Bengals swept their division by having a punishing run game and a stout, opportunistic defense.  The Patriots are a nightmare on third down and are never out of a game.  I think we will see a heavy dose of Cedric Benson on Sunday in an effort to keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field.  I have concerns about Wes Welker mentally having enough confidence in his knee to make the kinds of cuts that he used to.  He will be fine overall on the season  but is not likely to be quite as effective as he has been in recent years.  Still feel free to use him in your flex and WR2 in PPR leagues.  Ochocinco is still the only receiver on the Bengals worth starting this week, but big plays are certainly a possibility from TO, though they will be unpredictable and inconsistent.

Colts at Texans

The Texans are a better team than most people realize and starting the season at home against the Colts is their best chance at beating them in the regular season.  The Texans are 1-15 in franchise history against this team and the best way to convince these guys they can win the division is to beat the annual champions of it.  The Texans will be hoping to get Arian Foster the ball upwards of 20 times and Steve Slaton around 10 times by the end of the game.  If they can use their run game to supplement their explosive passing offense they should be able to remain competitive.  The Colts can’t reliably cover all the receiving threats that Matt Schaub has at his disposal this year and Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are exceedingly difficult to cover inside the red zone.  In order to win the Texans will need to force turnovers and find a way to pressure Manning without Brian Cushing, who is serving a suspension for violating the substance abuse policy.  The Colts are not a strong preseason team, and if they can’t get off to a fast start could find themselves on the ropes.  I think the Texans and Matt Schaub will play a solid game, but I never bet against Peyton Manning.  Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are both favorites of mine this week.

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Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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Rex Ryan is apparently a genius.  Every move he has made has been the right one and assuming nothing insane happens with the Revis contract talks or the development of Mark Sanchez; the Jets are my favorite to win the division.  They will have the best defense in the NFL as well as fantasy football due to the complex blitzing scheme of mastermind Rex Ryan. If they can keep the best rushing attack in the league as well… then they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. LaDanian Tomlinson can be expected to pick up some goal line and third down work.

Top Fantasy Players

Shonn Greene – Given the level work given to Greene during the playoffs last year and the departure of all the other running backs on the team there is an immense amount of confidence in this young man.

Santonio Holmes – Sanchez needed a deep threat with better hands than Braylon Edwards, and that is exactly what Holmes will be… come week 5.  Shortly after being acquired by the Jets it was announced that Holmes would face a 4 game suspension due to violating the substance abuse policy.  This will make Holmes a great value in late rounds, but there is some risk that there is no chemistry between him and Sanchez so production could start slow as well as late.

Jets D/ST – If last year’s defense was any indication of what is to come then opposing offenses are in for some trouble.  The Jets were the best defense last year, and they added depth and talent to the roster.

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This is an interesting time to do some scouting very early for next year’s fantasy football team and now is the best time to start taking notes on players that made the Playoffs.

Among the biggest stand-out teams in this year’s playoffs are the New York Jets.  The player everyone will want to know about is Mark Sanchez, and I don’t see any way that Sanchez is a viable fantasy option outside of very deep formats.  The forecast that I see for him is similar to that of Joe Flacco.  His performance this season was streaky, but he made plays when it mattered most and he will continue to do so.  I think the Jets are likely to repeat a playoff berth and possibly even win the division.  With that said the player I see making the biggest impact on fantasy rosters next season is Shonn Greene.  The way Ryan and the Jets used him at the end of the season led me to believe that Thomas Jones was worn out.  I would expect Greene to take the majority of the work starting early next year so that Jones is able to contribute the entire season.  I envision Jones getting most the short yardage work and splitting goal-line carries with Greene, who will take up the primary rushing role.  Braylon Edwards will likely remain a Jet going into next season but when you think about drafting him think about the pass that bounced off his face mask in the the open field against Buffalo, because no matter who throws the ball Edwards has a problem with drops.

Another team that I felt stood out was the Baltimore Ravens.  With how young Flacco is it would be hard for them to be playing instead of Manning and the Colts, but all this post-season time he is seeing early in his career will help him to develop into a premiere QB in the league.  He may not yet be a starting Fantasy Football QB but that is not much his fault… If the Ravens can get some deeper talent at WR he will end up top 10 at his position next season.  Ray Rice never slowed down, all season.  He gained respect among Fantasy owners every time he touched the football this season and the Playoffs was no different.  He is a threat in both dimensions of the offense and will mature with the rest of that offensive unit.  I also respect the Ravens because of their Defense, which at times struggled and faced injuries to big play-makers but they kept Flacco and their offense in almost every game and they will lead the Ravens back to the Playoffs again next year.

The biggest disappointment this post season was the Cincinnati Bungals.  They swept their division by playing smart and disciplined in all three phases and with a punishing run game.  These are the most important elements to playoff football, but they still broke down at the end and took an early exit against the Jets.  I saw great things come from the Bengals all season and after the unfortunate passing of their teammate, they never quite seemed the same.  Not that this is why, but it definitely crushed the momentum they had built for themselves and following that incident Cedric Benson was ROBBED of Comeback Player of the Year and they were snubbed by the Pro Bowl.  All these distractions broke the focus of the team down and cost them a chance to make a deep run into the playoffs.  Next season they are hopefully able to retain focus deep into the year and Palmer has one last shot to win a Super Bowl because after that they may need a new QB.

Hard to call losing with such a profound effort a disappointment but I expected the Packers to go deep this year, not out in the first round.  It made for a fitting end to Warner’s career who is too often forgotten as one of the most incredible football players of our time, but I view it like the Packers do, a loss, and a big one.  Rodgers has yet to step up and really fill the shoes of Favre, and lasting long enough to beat him (or even face him) in the Playoffs would have done just that.  Next year will be another phenomenal fantasy campaign for Rodgers and a fair few Packers, but that is little consolation if they are one and done in the post season again next season.

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