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Question 1: Asked by @Magnific_ANT_1

I wake up this morning and I’ve been offered Julio Jones for Tim Hightower. What about the Helu factor. That’s has been a reason for me wanting deal Hightower.

Answer

I would not do this deal. Helu is likely to stay in his change of pace roll as long as Hightower is able to keep up this production. I do not think Julio Jones is going to be overly productive this season.  I would have liked to see him have a big scoring play already and think his progress will be a little too slow to be a big fantasy-factor this season.

Question 2: Asked by @aglikas

Crazy thought, putting in a waiver claim for Ochocinco and dropping Hines Ward. Are you in favor of this?

Answer

I think it is a very smart move. Ward is old and his production has dipped too far with the Pittsburgh offensive line playing so terribly. Chad might not be playing well right now but the Patriot offense is a machine and I didn’t expect very much from him early on. Ward has no chance to break out, but Chad still has time to get his act together and become a valuable target for Brady.

Question 3: Asked by @jersymikejr

Cam Newton, Matt Ryan or Kevin Kolb?

Answer

This is a two man race between Ryan and Newton in my eyes and it is REALLY close. I don’t discredit Cam for last week’s game in a monsoon… he did get the win after all and posted decent fantasy points.  Ryan has a safe match up here and I have to give him the nod against a bad Seahawks team. Newton has potential for a bigger game this week, but I think Ryan will get you over 15 points for certain and the rookie is always more likely to implode and do nothing.

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Love

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – The Chiefs looked bad on both sides of the ball last week against Buffalo and they also have officially lost Eric Berry for the season.  I expect a  lot of big plays for the Lions this week and with a receiver like Calvin Johnson, it’s easy to be excited about the Lions passing game for week 2.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – The Bills offense opened a lot of eyes in Week 1 when they trounced a Chiefs team that looks to be far from what they were last year.  With the Raiders traveling across the continent to play at 1 pm on Sunday, I think the Bills are very likely to start the season at 2-0.  The Raiders defense IS underrated in my opinion, but Johnson has just been fantastic since early last season and seems to always find a way to be a factor on the scoreboard.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – With the Broncos as opponents in Week 2, I think you’ll be hard pressed to keep Benson out of your lineup after a pretty great week 1. The Broncos allowed a total of 27 fantasy points to the Raiders running backs last week and Benson is pretty much the entire Bengal rushing attack.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – The Panthers impressed in Week 1 against the Cardinals in a losing effort, but I think we can all agree that the Packers are going to have an easy road to victory in week 2 against the Panthers. They simply do not have good enough linebackers to contain Finley, who is a match up nightmare for opposing defenses.

Rex Grossman, QB, WAS – This is by no way saying you should sit Big Ben or Matt Schaub for Grossman, but if your in a 2 QB league, why not play the guy whose opponent just let Cam Newton throw for over 420 yards?  It is worth noting that Rex looked pretty good against the Giants, who have a much better defense than the Cardinals do.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – Boy, the Steelers sure took one on the chin in week 1 and they look to rebound against Tavaris Jackson and the Seahawks in week 2.  I think the Steelers will alleviate a lot of concerns in this game and I expect a big day from all the play makers.  They will also try to re-establish their identity as a run-first team in this one and Mendenhall should have a very nice outting for his fantasy owners.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – There aren’t too many guys out there as consistent as Megatron.  He is such a dominating receiver in the red zone and as I said in the Stafford section, with no Eric Berry, I don’t see the Chiefs as able to contain Calvin Johnson that well at all.

Hate

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons struggle last week against the Bears and with the Eagles in week two, it is not an ideal time to bet on a rebound.  The Eagles secondary looks more like an all-star team’s secondary and unless Turner has a big game, the passing game is not likely to hold up well either.  I didn’t have Ryan rated as a #1 QB, so hopefully you have someone else you can play until the match up is a bit more favorable.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – He did so bad in week 1 that I still expect him to do better and you should be starting him anyways, but just don’t have high hopes for a big game.  If he gets to double digit points, he did his job.

Danny Woodhead, RB, NE – He saw a lot more snaps than BenJarvus Green-Ellis did in week 1, but that won’t remain the case all season.  The guy to be featured will depend largely on the match up and against San Diego I expect the Pats to want a more physical, punishing runner.  And Law Firm will be getting all the goal line work anyways.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – Lloyd had a good game and I think he will be ok this week, I just don’t have any faith in the Denver offense anymore and under John Fox, it is going to be about establishing the run.  Which will be harder to do with Moreno banged up.

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What a crazy start to the 2011 season. We saw proven, storied franchises collapse completely and we saw a rookie debut record from a class of QBs that no one was excited about. So lets get this week 1 recap started!

Studs

Tom Brady, QB, NE – Over 500 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll excuse the INT because he probably single-handedly won your week 1 match up if you had him.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton was not expected to be an immediate success in the NFL.  He came from an option-style offense after just one year and one NCAA championship. Many people, including myself, felt that he was not worth the number 1 overall draft pick.  24 completions on 37 attempts, 422 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. That shut me up. This yardage total is a record for rookie’s in their debut, beating out Peyton Manning’s first ever rookie performance.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Wow. Are the Raven’s that good or are the Steelers that bad? Honestly, probably neither.  But Rice’s performance was outstanding considering how dominant the Steelers defense has been.  He was certainly helped by 7 turnovers increasing his number of chances, but I am interested to see just how big of a season Rice will have running behind Vonta Leach.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith definitely helped Cam look good Sunday as he faced off against Patrick Peterson and made him look foolish all day in coverage. After last season, in my Year in Review article, I discussed how if Carolina could land a decent QB then Smith would return to fantasy relevance. I am still not betting on Newton’s consistency, but Newton sure looks like he will be enough to make Smith into a startable option for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – He may not have racked up too much yardage, but any fantasy owner loves to see a 3 TD performance and that’s what Tolbert did this week. He did appear to be hurt late in that game, but all reports have been great since the game and we can expect Tolbert to be at 100% for week 2.  His usage in the passing game and especially in the red zone makes Tolbert the clear guy to own of the Chargers running backs.  At least for now.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Bears offense looks to be building off their success from last season and Forte is going to be a big part of that with his pass catching ability out of the backfield. I was surprised to see Khalil Bell get 10 carries in the win over the Falcons, but in a Mike Martz system, you want the guy that catches the ball so I am not concerned.  Especially not following 158 all-purpose yards and a TD.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I love to talk about this guy, I don’t think people are giving him the credit he deserves.  He tallied 136 yards on 5 catches and scored twice in Week 1.  This is going to be a season to remember for Britt and it will be without an elite QB.  This guy has a really bright future and will be a big part of your season if you were lucky enough to draft him.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – 150 yards on 22 carries? I guess he isn’t a one-year wonder.  While the match-up wasn’t great, neither was anyone else on the Raiders.  He will remain an integral part of the game plan and he is a number 1 caliber back in my opinion.

Chad Henne, QB, MIA – People might not have noticed exactly how good Henne was in a losing effort on Monday night.  His opponent Brady overshadowed him pretty bad, but Henne finished as the 2nd highest point total among all QB’s in the NFL in week 1 and should not be on free agency if you have serious QB concerns.

Duds

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben committed FIVE turnovers this week with three interceptions and two lost fumbles as the Steelers looked completely inept against division rival Baltimore Ravens.  A bad game doesn’t make me as nervous as the loss of right tackle Willie Colon for the season as the offensive line was weak already.  You need a good, servicable back up for Ben this year.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Rivers ended up with a decent enough point total that he evades a spot on this list, but Rivers did not play that well in Week 1.  The Chargers are known to start slow and managed to claw their way to a win… but special teams hurt them again and Jackson was not a factor in the vertical passing game, which will need to change for the Chargers to be a Super Bowl contender as they hope to be.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Holding out as long as he did really slowed the start of the season for CJ2k as he had just 24 yards rushing and 25 receiving. I thought he was supposed to be one of the top playmakers in the NFL? I guess he’ll have to earn that pay check next week.  If you own him, your starting him.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – The Buccs have some work to do because despite how close the score looked at the end of the game, the Lions really controlled the game from start to finish and Blount was rendered ineffective by a need to pass to try and get back into the game.  Blount needs carries to get into a rhythm and wear down the defense so I am not too concerned, but we can expect at least a few more games like this by the end of the season.  He is still a solid RB2.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I kinda called this one, the Buffalo pass defense does not get enough credit and they really shut down the Chiefs in week 1.  I have concerns going forward for Bowe, but I had them before and he is no more than a low-end WR2 in my eyes.  He will drop further if KC can’t get their running game going either.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons offense looked out-matched against the Bears D and Ryan was not a very effective passer in this game. I think the Falcons will get ti figured out and I am not overly concerned with Ryan going forward.

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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