Love

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – The Eagles face a stout defense that will need to spend a TON of time on the field this Sunday. Last week, the Bears drew up a blueprint for how to beat Joe Webb. They were very effective at disguising pressure and forcing Webb to make mistakes. With the ballhawks in the secondary for the Eagles, don’t be surprised to see a blow out come from this Sunday night game.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Isn’t it the law that I have to love running backs against the Bills?  It should be!  Despite having a decent performance last week against the Dolphins, the Bills run D is still ranked 32nd in the league.  Don’t expect the Pats to look past Buffalo either, especially not after such a narrow escape against Matt Flynn and the Packers.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – The Steelers are likely to obliterate the Panthers this week at home on Thursday night. Wallace is a huge part of their vertical passing game and should see his share of targets early on in the game.  If he is not able to haul one in before it gets out of hand Wallace owners could be in trouble, but I don’t think the Panthers will be able to cover him with any consistency.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – Except for in Week 14 against the Redskins, Blount has been a major contributor against each below average defense the Buccs have faced since he took over the starting job.  Despite breaking the road game losing streak for the Lions last week, look for the Buccaneers’ young core group of players to rebound strong and be able to produce offensively.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – There is a lot going for Ryan here.  He beat the Saints on the road earlier in the season and he is a much more efficient and productive QB at home.  The Saints offense will score points and force Ryan to air it out plenty in this game and he should be able to produce a quality outing for fantasy owners regardless of whether they win or lose.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – The Broncos face the Texans this week, who are on pace to be the worst pass defense in NFL history.  While Tebow scares me some, his ability to run will force defenses to stay honest and Lloyd was targeted enough last week to maintain some value going into your Super Bowl.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – The Titans play the Chiefs this week who are allowing just over 100 yards per game on the ground.  I think we can all agree that Johnson is better than the average running back and with Kerry Collins able to move the ball effectively through the air, you shouldn’t be shy about playing your first round draft pick.

Hate

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Since the Bye week, Moreno has been a picture of consistency.  Last week he got hurt and was not able to finish the game.  If somehow this didn’t knock you out of the playoffs, stay away from Moreno this week.  Tebow will be running a little more and these carries will be taken from Moreno.  Couple that with his sore ribs and he is just a little bit too risky for my liking this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – Boldin has really only had one good game this season and it was a 3 TD outing against the same opponent that the Ravens face this week.  With his incredible lack of consistency, there is no reason you should risk starting him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – I expect this to a be a one-sided affair and the Bills are clearly not who I anticipate winning.  He is a solid QB2 play, but there are better options for standard leagues.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Many teams would not be able to recover from the crushing defeat that the Giants suffered last week.  It is tough not to be mentally affected by a let down like that and since Aaron Rodgers is looking to return in time for this week’s game, they would have their hands full under the best of circumstances.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – Marshall has TDs in consecutive games for the first time all year and just caught 11 passes last week against what was the league’s 4th ranked defense.  With that said, after a long disappointing season the odds are pretty bad that he is able to put together another quality performance even with his very nice match up. Consider him a flex play at best this week.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – You’re still going to need to start him because of his involvement in the passing game, but lower expectations of Forte this week as he faces the Jets.  Their injuries have weakened their front 7, but the Jets’ blitzing scheme is still among the best in the league.  If Forte is to be successful he will need to break a fair few tackles in the backfield.

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Question 1: Asked by @NYLivinCAMind

Start 1: Bradford, Ryan or Cassel?

Answer

Even though Matt Ryan is a beast at home, I have to give the nod to Cassel here.  Ryan has a much taller-task to overcome with the Packers coming to town, than Matt Cassel faces by going to Qwest Field.  The Seahawks have the NFL’s 30th ranked pass defense and are allowing an average of just over 16 fantasy points per game to the opposing QB.  With the recent emergence of Dwayne Bowe as an elite WR for the Chiefs, Cassel finally has a reliable target on the outside to make big plays and help him convert on longer 3rd down attempts.

Question 2: Asked by Connor

Due to some inopportune injuries I really need to add some WR depth with huge upside down the road for the playoffs.  Who should I pickup: Steve Breaston, Blair White, Nate Burleson, or Davone Bess?

Answer

These are some pretty decent options for pickup.  Steve Breaston has been surprisingly consistent with the number of yards he is able to build up by the end of the game.  The Cardinals are a losing team and are typically forced to go to the air at the end of the game in effort to stay competitive.  To me, the stand out here is Blair White, however.  Austin Collie has had some serious issues with staying healthy and with Pierre Garcon not being the same go-to-guy that he was last season… there are a lot of targets to spread around in Indianapolis.

Question 2: Asked by wtb2612

Pick 2 to start (RB2 and FLEX): Keiland Williams, Mike Tolbert, Mike Goodson and Darren Sproles

Answer

You’re going to need to keep an eye on the status of Ryan Torain for the game this week.  As of now, it does not look as if he will be able to play (he is currently listed as questionable however) and Jonathan Stewart should be back to compete with Goodson for carries in that struggling Panthers offense.  Tolbert and Williams, due to injury, should be the ones to see the most carries and are on better offenses which are more likely to be in a position for them to score a TD. You can see my answer to this question and the answers of others on Fandemic.

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Love

Drew Brees, QB, NO - Madden curse be damned… Brees finally looked like the elite QB you drafted when they came off their week 10 bye and beat up on a weak opponent in the dome.  This week, the Saints play the rebounding Cowboys in Dallas and are heavy favorites.  The Cowboy secondary is young, inexperienced and while they have been playing well… we are talking about the Super Bowl champions.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - With how much the Vikings offense has struggled lately and the new head coach being charged with the responsibility of trying to provide a stability to the team, it appears as if we can expect a heavy dose of the league’s best running back… Adrian Peterson.  More recently, Favre has suggested simplifying the play book to help the Vikings get back to fundamentals and playing sound, error-proof football.  All of these signs point to Peterson carrying the load for the rest of the season.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Many of the elite WRs from draft day have under-performed.  Megatron is not one of them.  The Patriots allow over 25 points per game to the WR position and Johnson has been a beast in the red zone this season.  He remains a must-start, regardless of the QB situation… especially against the young and inexperienced Patriots secondary.

Tom Brady, QB, NE – The Patriots’ signal caller is an elite fantasy QB, he doesn’t care who his receivers are and his owners shouldn’t care about bad match-ups when starting him.  After a big game against the Steelers two weeks ago, you can’t get caught with him out of your lineup against the Lions.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Even though Mendenhall has only managed to top 90 yards ONCE since the return of Big Ben, you start your running backs against the Bills.  Buffalo, despite their success recently, is 32nd against the run.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – With the news that both Smith and Nicks will be out this week and Nicks for longer than that… Manningham is about to have a HUGE second half of the season.  The Giants have fumbling issues and are going to need to give Brandon Jacobs more carries.  Since this is not a recipe for success in my book, the emphasis will be placed on the passing game for their week 12 match-up against the surging Jaguars.

Heath Miller, TE, PIT – Much like you start your running backs against the Bills, you start your tight ends against them as well. With all the injuries to top-end TEs this season, many fantasy owners have to turn to the waiver wire on a weekly basis to try and rotate out people with good matchups.  The Bills have allowed the most touch downs to opposing TEs (8) and playing the top guy that faces them each week is a pretty solid strategy.

Hate

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – He has been huge for fantasy owners that held him on their bench for the first half of the season and I like him down the stretch.  Not this week however!  The Steelers have not allowed a 75 yard rusher this season and I do not expect that to change against a team that lost 8 straight games to start the season.  Production in the passing game is his only chance at a decent game, but the blitzing scheme of the Steelers should beat the shaky o-line of the Bills.

Carson Palmer, QB, CIN - I feel like he has made this list a lot this year, but with the Jets as his opponent… he deserves to be here again.  A team that can’t hold a 21 point lead against the Bills is not likely to have a strong outing against an elite defense.  We don’t know which receiver will be on Revis island for this game, so stay away from ALL Bengals wherever possible this week.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – Even though Ryan is typically a stud at home, the Packers defense is playing great lately. Clay Matthews is likely to be the defensive player of the year for the 2010 season and should limit the production of Ryan and the Falcons offense.  Lower expectations for everyone, but start your studs in Michael Turner and Roddy White.  Ryan is not a stud, so look elsewhere if you have a decent option to replace him.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – The Chargers come to town this week and have played some inspired defense so far this season.  Brown has yet to have a break out performance and the chances that we see that in this game is very slim.  Look elsewhere unless you are desperate.

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Love

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Hillis just may be the real deal.  In the past couple weeks people have compared him to Mike Alstott, Jerome Bettis and Larry Cszonka.  I won’t go that far yet, but for this season he is one of the best and most consistent RBs that you could hope to own.  He is a must start and a top 5 back until week 17 when they play the Steelers again, the last time is the only week he was not able to score 10 points all season.

Drew Brees, QB, NO – Brees and the Saints have had their ups and downs this season, but when you have one of the best QBs in the league and they play against the 28th ranked pass defense at home your decision is easy.  Seriously though, a lot of this love has to do with the likelihood that one or both of the injured RBs will return this week.  This offense will be very close to what it was last year once both are back and we are due to see a flash of that production this week regardless.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - I know he didn’t have a great game last week, but the Giants have a track record of being inconsistent over the past couple season.  When they play well, they stack up against any team in the NFL.  I won’t go as far as calling this a new trend or anything, but if they struggle this week too then that will be the time for concern.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL – Normally, I would not advise you to start Jones after a season full of disappointment and just one productive game.  However, this week he is a decent flex option as he goes against a Lions defense that is banged up and allows a lot of 20+ yard plays.  Lets just hope Jason Garrett can get this team turned around and keep this running game productive.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – Matt Ryan is on the road this week and that is typically not a great time to start him.  This week will be an exception as the Falcons are on a roll lately and going against the Rams’ 18th ranked pass defense.  Despite being on the road, the Ryan-White connection will still be in a dome and this team is on a mission to prove that they are the best team in the NFC.  What is scaring me the most about the Falcons? They might be right!

Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ – Holmes is a clutch player that Sanchez is learning to look to when the game is on the line.  This week against the worst secondary in the NFL should be a great game for Holmes, Mark Sanchez and Braylon Edwards.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF - Fitzpatrick is a great backup to have.  Since taking over the job, he has managed double digit fantasy points in each game.  With his lowest two performances coming in consecutive weeks now, sit him down if you have another viable option.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET – Fool me once, shame on you… fool me for 7 straight weeks? My bad.  It has been 7 weeks since Best managed double digit fantasy points and after not even getting the job done against the BILLS… he is at best a deep flex play.  I’m sure he’ll score a TD again at some point during his career… but I’m done thinking it might happen this season after such a long drought.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Don’t let one great game change the negative opinion that 85 has been crafting all season.  Expect the double-team to be back on him this week as well as for him to have a modest game at best.  Asking for any more than that is asking to get burned.

Keiland Williams, RB, WAS - Even if Portis and Torain are non-factors in this game, the Tennessee Titans have a very good run defense and Williams is at best a flex play in this game.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – He’s just been bad this year.  He has only two games in the double digits and with Tyler Thigpen calling the shots this week, all of the upside that kept Marshall as a fantasy-starter is gone.

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1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Philip Rivers
5. Tony Romo
6. Matt Schaub
7. Matt Ryan
8. Eli Manning
9. Kyle Orton
10. Joe Flacco
11. Brett Favre
12. Sam Bradford
13. Kevin Kolb
14. Shaun Hill
15. Mark Sanchez
16. Josh Freeman
17. Donovan McNabb
18. David Garrard
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick
20. Vince Young
21. Carson Palmer
22. Bruce Gradkowski
23. Alex Smith
24. Matt Cassel
25. Jake Delhomme

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1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Tony Romo
5. Philip Rivers
6. Matt Schaub
7. Matt Ryan
8. Eli Manning
9. Joe Flacco
10. Brett Favre
11. Kyle Orton
12. Jay Cutler
13. Sam Bradford
14. Kevin Kolb
15. Mark Sanchez
16. Shaun Hill
17. Donovan McNabb
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick
19. Carson Palmer
20. David Garrard
21. Josh Freeman
22. Vince Young
23. Bruce Gradkowski
24. Alex Smith
25. Matt Cassel

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Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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