Love

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – To be clear, I couldn’t care less if RGIII plays or not.  Even if he plays, Morris’ workload WILL increase as a precaution to try and keep Griffen from running too much.  Morris was already an irreplaceable factor for this offense and given his youth, they won’t be afraid to lean on him.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers are headed on the road to New Orleans this week and that means there are two bad defenses on the field and the potential for a lot of points to be scored.  Jackson has been an amazing addition for Tampa and they have been able to keep him VERY productive.  They are going to have to throw deep to keep up with Brees and that should mean plenty of opportunity for VJax.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Law Firm has been on a tear lately and with a game against the Eagles (among the worst defenses in the NFL since firing Juan Castillo) this week, there is no reason to expect a change.  Law Firm is typically a mid-to-low end RB2 but in this matchu-up, he falls just outside the top 10.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – Alexander continues to be a force for the Chargers offense that took down Pittsburgh this past week.  Danario is a large man that uses that size to box-out defenders and give Philip Rivers somewhere to throw.  So far he is the only guy getting open with any consistency and that isn’t likely to change against a shaky Panthers secondary.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – There is no hotter QB in the NFL at the moment and especially so for fantasy owners.  Newton has had 37, 28 and 36 fantasy points in the past 3 weeks. Atlanta is the only defense that was really any good in this stretch but San Diego is far from a great defense too and I think, if your still alive in the playoffs, you’ve GOTTA keep Newton in there.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – This may seem like an obvious one here but Charles owners should have high hopes this week.  The Raiders are just 26th against the run and they are struggling as of late.  Charles is the entirety of the Kansas City offense and is almost certain to see the 100 yard mark this week.

Hate

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The fact that Turner keeled over in exhaustion at the end of the game and by coincidence fell over the goal line does not give me any confidence.  Watch the tape people, this isn’t the same guy you had on your team three years ago.  He’s too slow to get through a hole and into the second and third levels like he used to, leave him on your bench because ALL of his value is at the goal line.  It’s like starting Michael Bush.

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I won’t be surprised if he gets a big game here but it’s about risk in the playoffs and that is one thing that Moore has in spades.  The whole Raiders team is floundering a little bit and while Moore was good for you in the middle of the season, don’t look for it here.  I know the match up is appealing but you need safe and consistent, not a hail-mary.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – The Packers do not have a crippling defense by any means but the Bears DO have a pretty bad offensive line.  Clay Matthews is set to return and with all that rest, he’s going to be coming back with a vengeance. If he gets in Cutler’s face early on, it will frustrate the Bears signal caller and we’ve all seen him play when he is frustrated.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Mr. Smith, have you met Champ Bailey?  You are about to.  Old man Bailey has been playing like he’s 25 again this season and he’s doing that all with the added experience that comes from actually being 34 years old.  Jim Caldwell will utilize Ray Rice much more now that he has the offensive coordinator position and that makes Smith nothing more than a poor flex option this week. 27th among WRs in my rankings.

Bryce Brown, RB, PHI – I can’t believe analysts can still put Brown as an RB 2 this week.  I had him at 20 last week, after consecutive great games and now that he just put up zero points last week, they have him higher… it doesn’t add up to me.  You won the lottery if you started this guy and won last week, don’t try and win it twice.

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Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Not many teams have as strong of a commitment to the run as the 49ers do.  Colin Kaepernick didn’t have his best game passing the ball against the Rams this past week and in order to get back on track, I anticipate a heavy dose of Gore.  Don’t sweat the match-up either because the Dolphins are not the stout run defense that they were in the first half of the season. I blame the offensive for this as their inability to convert on third downs has led to a tired defense late in games and they simply get over run. Expect more of the same this week when the east coast team travels west.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – I expect both Cruz and Nicks to do very well in this game. Let’s be honest about their opponent… Brees is NOT going to lay another egg like last week and the Saints defense is NOT going to be able to stop this Giants offense that really turned a corner last week on offense. Manning certainly played better than before the bye week but the timing was just a shade off against the Skins and I expect the throws to be right on time the rest of the way.  New York always finishes the season strong and because of that, I love their players during the fantasy playoffs.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET –There are a lot of negatives surrounding the Lions right now.  They dropped too many winnable games early in the season to be fighting for a playoff spot and injuries have decimated the receiving corps but Calvin Johnson remains healthy and that is enough for me.  The Packers secondary is their weak spot and with Clay Matthews looking to miss this game as well, Stafford will have plenty of time to let Megatron get open before he dumps it off to Pettigrew and Mike Thomas.  If somehow Stafford DIDN’T cost you your playoff spot, you can confidently start him this week.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Bengals lost an offensive weapon (Mohammed Sanu) to IR this week and while it won’t have a big impact on the game plan, it could lead to a few extra run plays.  Given that the Law Firm has been playing by and far his best football of the season over the past three games, I am able to start him with as much confidence as I’ve ever been able to all year.  Dallas isn’t a good match-up but after what Bryce Brown did to them last week, I am far from scared of playing a quality running back against them.

Browns, D/ST, CLE – It takes a lot for me to step up and stake a claim to a defensive unit for my love list but here it is.  And it’s the Browns of all teams.  Everyone has been so surprised by the production of Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon and Brandon Weeden that they don’t notice that it is the defense keeping them a competitive ball club. The wins haven’t come but they also haven’t played any games against Brady Quinn yet.  Jamaal Charles will be productive but the Browns have as much value this week as they ever will and at 6 in my rankings, they are the defense that I am looking to on free agency this week.

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – A TON of owners bailed on this guy after a few too many weeks on the inactive list.  I scooped him up in a few leagues and I have to say, he’s a great addition so late in the year.  This is the unquestioned top threat for RGIII, who is going to make plays regardless of who is on the field. Given the elite level of play that Griffen has been displaying on a weekly basis, it’s hard to imagine there being very many under-whelming games for Garcon.  He didn’t crack my top 20 quite yet but if he can find the end zone again this week, he’ll be there for sure for week 15.

Hate

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Throw away all the stats about what month it is because they are irrelevant, albeit fun to talk about.  Tony Romo has been awful all year.  The team sits at .500 and yet it’s been in spite of the play of Romo.  He is making poor decisions and turning the ball over far more consistently in years past and I can’t trust him to be a starter in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Josh Gordon, WR, CLE – I had written some positive things about Gordon leading up to my rankings and then, quite frankly, I wussed out.  I just can’t list a Cleveland Browns receiver inside my top 20 inside the playoffs. He fell to 28 in my ranks because I am not supremely confident that I can expect him to score a TD, even if it IS against the Chiefs.  There is even a decent chance that Richardson runs away with the game and the Browns aren’t focused on the vertical passing game.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – I am fully aware of how good he has been for you thus far but a lot of owners would be wise to sit him down this week against the Texans.  Houston can move the ball on offense however they chose, especially against such a weak defense.  This leads me to believe that they game plan will be heavy on Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels and a little lighter for Arian Foster.  The Patriots on the other hand, won’t have free reign on offense as they play host to one of the best defenses in the AFC.  Brady will need to be slinging the ball around and Ridley’s value will be too dependent on goal line work for me to call him a must-start, which I think most people would do.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – This is more so a cautionary warning for Brown owners with a bad memory.  He was AWFUL so far this season prior to the injury and when you add in the fact that Big Ben’s performance will likely be less than 100%, there isn’t a lot of faith that starting Brown won’t mean my season is over.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – I saw his game last week and I still can’t get myself to want to start this aging running back.  He even has a decent match-up against Carolina who I expect to lose by a fair margin, which would usually mean a fair amount of work to run clock and put the game on ice.  I am just too worried about the prospect of a 13 carry 45 yard performance with Rodgers and Snelling seeing a little bit more work to ensure the healthy of Turner in the post season.

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Studs

Brian Hartline, WR, MIA – All season so far the Cardinals have leaned on their defense to get wins and the best part of their defense has been the secondary, featuring Patrick Peterson. Meanwhile, the Miami offense was centered around Reggie Bush. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has been doing a good job of managing the game and minimizing mistakes. Seemingly out of nowhere, Hartline exploded against the Cardinals for 12 catches on 19 targets for 253 yards and a touchdown. I’m honestly not too sure how I will rank him yet for next week but given the bye weeks, he is certainly going to be a serviceable flex-play at least.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – This was a really strong bounce-back game for Turner, who appears to have lost a little quickness this year. It may not have been much but in the NFL, a tenth of a second difference to the hole can mean the difference between a 2 yard gain and a 20+ yard gain.  Turner had just 13 carries for 103 yards rushing. The biggest surprise was the 3 catches for 68 yards and receiving touchdown.  You can’t count on the receiving production but it was still a really nice game if he didn’t catch any passes.  Hopefully you have a good enough team that Turner is a flex-play at best.

Tom Brady, QB, NE – If you own Tom Brady and were paying attention on Sunday, you were pretty disappointed at half time.  It looked like Buffalo had taken over the game by half time with the Patriots only having 7 points. 45 points later the second half and ended and you finally had the highest scoring QB for the week in Brady.  He shredded a pretty poor secondary but what impressed me was the offensive line play. With two 100 yard rushers and a clean jersey for Tom Brady facing what was thought to be one of the best front four in the NFL. He’ll have a tough time duplicating this level of production too often but it’s nice to see him putting up elite QB numbers again.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – A lot of people commented about me ranking Roddy White over Julio Jones in my preseason rankings.  I’ll admit that my logic wasn’t fool proof but it was pretty solid. White has proven to be a fantasy stud and not just for one season.  He’s been doing this for a few years now. Jones may have twice the talent but there is a lot to be said for confidence and ability to fight off defensive attention.  Thus far, teams have been able to keep Jones pinned down but not so much with White. He’s living up to that #2 preseason rank I gave him so far.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – Colston is a really frustrating guy to own, historically. In the first three weeks, he didn’t get over 5 fantasy points and seemingly at random, he goes off for a huge game.  That game was on Sunday. 9 catches for 153 yards and a TD on 13 targets.  If you own Colston, you have to deal with the mediocrity to make it to these games. Start him every week.

Andre Roberts, WR, ARI – It still just feels awkward and a little dirty to mention that the Cardinals are 4-0, but their record stands and they won a big overtime game against the Dolphins on Sunday. Roberts has 4 TDs in 4 games and is a must-own in all leagues.  I couldn’t use him as more than a bye-week fill-in quite yet but if Kolb can keep his stats up, he could crawl his way up to being a WR2 at best after a few weeks.

Duds

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – That makes two games that the Cowboys lost on the arm of their QB. I would be in a full-panic right now if Romo was my QB and I think you should try and trade for a better option immediately. This guy is going to lose his job and he will be the first QB of the season to do so.

Ryan Williams, RB, ARI – A lot of people really liked Ryan Williams now that Beanie Wells is out of the picture. This isn’t what they had in mind.  Miami admittedly has a really solid run defense but I haven’t seen Williams do ANYTHING worth mentioning yet. He will be the lowest ranked of the feature backs until he can show me that he deserves the job.

Martellus Bennett, TE, NYG – The Giants were using him as the #2 receiving threat when Nicks was out and it seemed like he was going to be a sure-fire starter for his fantasy owners.  I’ll still rank him as such but he really raised a lot of questions with his zero point performance.

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – People had him pegged at the #2 WR going into draft day and while I was NOT one of them (having him outside my top 10), he disappointed a lot of people.  He hasn’t even outscored the team’s kicker on the year.  Ouch.

Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL – He went from the most targeted TE in the league to not listed in the box score. Zeros hurt fantasy owners but don’t panic, they just didn’t need to look to a check-down option against the Browns secondary.  The receivers were open on just about every play.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – I didn’t start him with confidence but he killed me this week and I’m sure I am not alone. I’m not starting this guy until he proves himself again and I don’t think you should either.

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Love

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – I’m just re-aggravating myself about week 1 as I write this but Spiller has the reins of this offense in his hands and currently is the NFL’s leading rusher.  Who knows what to expect from the Bills defense but no matter what you say about them, you have to admit that they found a way to provide fantasy-production to their players by the time the game ended.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – The Bengals lost a bad game bloody this week and they now have probably the easiest match-up of the season as the Browns come to town. To make matters worse, Joe Haden is officially suspended and will not be with the team this week so there won’t be ANYONE to contain Green in this game. He is among the best receivers in the NFL already in his young career and this could well be his best game of the season.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – Ryan played a phenomenal game last week on the road against the Chiefs. Rumor has it that Arrowhead is a tough place to play and it just didn’t matter. With Ryan’s track record for being a BETTER player at home, you can not bench him now. The Broncos are coming to play in the dome and that bodes well for Peyton too so we could have a shoot out on our hands and Ryan owners sure won’t mind that.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – Chicago couldn’t even cover Reggie Wayne last week.  He had 9 catches on 18 targets and racked up 135 receiving yards (most in the NFL).  Greg Jennings has a groin injury and is listed as doubtful for Thursday night.  Historically speaking, doubtful is as good as being listed as out so Nelson will have a nice match-up in a potential shoot-out. Must start this week.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – If you DON’T love the law firm this week, you clearly didn’t watch the same week 1 performance that I did. He had 18 carries for 91 yards and a score, which was good enough to make him the 11th best back for the week. What’s most impressive is that he did it against a terrible match-up in a blow-out loss. He is a MUST start against the Browns who are just about the worst team in the NFL this season.  He should see a lot of work to close out the win and I would be shocked if he wasn’t over 100 yards.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – Cutler makes it into my top 10 QB’s for the week with a tough Thursday night match-up against the Packers. Alex Smith pretty well carved up this defense last week and while they will certainly be out for redemption, Cutler has a more prolific offense at his disposal and I think he should be in for another 300 yard passing game whether they win or lose.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Coach Shanahan’s running backs… I know. I can’t blame you even a little bit if you just refuse to start this guy but let’s take a look at Shanahan’s offenses historically. His best teams were with a mobile quarterback and a featured running back.  From John Elway and Terrell Davis to Jake Plummer with Clinton Portis/Reuben Droughns, Shanahan has always strived to set up an offense like the one he now has.  Griffen fits the mold of the big-armed mobile QB that he always wants to use but he will still be rough around the edges and Morris will carry the load to keep the offense on-track. There is still at minimum, a 35% chance that Morris gets just 5 carries this week but It’s a nice match-up vs the Rams and I’m willing to make that gamble because no back has ever gotten as many carries in a game as Morris did in week 1 for the Redskins with Shanahan at the helm.

Hate

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – I said all preseason that until I see something to indicate that Turner is declining, I won’t be expecting it.  I haven’t seen much of the game but just by looking at the stat-line, I can tell you that he just wasn’t given near the touches he used to.  Especially on the road.  Atlanta will look to bury Peyton in points this week at home and I think we need to downgrade Turner to a low-end RB2 or flex play for the time being. Don’t just bench him without much thought though… he’s still the lead back and will see a good amount of goal line work.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – I absolutely think the Steelers win this game, I just think it’s an ugly one.  I have no faith in the Jets offense because Sanchez has never really shown consistency before but their Defense is DEFINITELY the real deal.   They loosened up against Buffalo and allowed both yardage and points in junk-time but they won’t be running away with this one offensively so that won’t be an option.  If you drafted Ben, you almost certainly got yourself a very quality backup so this is a week to use him.

Kevin Ogletree, WR, DAL – Don’t overreact here.  You did a good thing picking him up but there is a plethora of receiving talent on his offense and he isn’t going to move up past the slot receiver for quite some time, no matter how well he does. We’ve likely seen his best game of the season and I don’t want to take a chance with him until he proves it wasn’t a fluke.

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, I’m just an idiot.  You may not have a choice but to play him anyways but don’t expect much against the Ravens defense.  McCoy will be just fine but I’m just no longer convinced that Vick is the same play-maker he was two years ago.  With his injury risk, you have a backup and should consider him this week (especially Cutler!)

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT – The match-up is tough so he’s likely not a starter even if Mendenhall is out again.  If Mendenhall DOES play, he is a definite sit.

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Studs

Robert Griffen III, QB, WAS – Griffen became the first player to EVER amass 300 yards passing, at least 2 TDs and 0 INT’s in his debut performance.  I want to caution people from assuming that RG3 is this season’s Cam Newton.  There was NEVER a Cam Newton before and I will continue to assume that these young guys who have early success are going to be inconsistent and hard to trust until they prove to me that I’m wrong, just like Cam did.

Kevin Ogletree, WR, DAL – With all the Cowboys receiving threats banged up and out of sync due to missing practice, Ogletree has a CAREER day. As I said yesterday, his game totals in week 1 stack up favorably against the entire rest of his career.  I think we can expect Ogletree to be a poor-man’s Laurent Robinson from last season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – I’m going to keep this brief because talking about my Bills makes me want to tear my hair out and hibernate until next season already.  Fred Jackson is out for 3-8 weeks and this job is WITHOUT A DOUBT Spiller’s. After coming in for Jackson on Sunday, CJ totaled 169 yards and 2 scores with a lost fumble. Spiller is a mediocre RB2 and great flex play for as long as Jackson is out.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – Can you believe this guy was a top 10 QB? Me neither. Don’t freak out and don’t go grab him… this team has some serious problems and my major issue is Sanchez’s talent.  Treat this as a fluke and maybe give him a bench spot after next week if he can repeat this performance.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – Shane Vereen wasn’t there for the Pats on Sunday but from a team that has always been a committee, no matter who is healthy, Ridley did it all this week. 21 carries for 125 yards and a score was a big surprise to me. It will get more murky in the Pats backfield once Vereen comes back but until then, I’d be willing to risk being burned and start Ridley next week as an RB2 or flex.

Lance Moore, WR, NO – Now this was admittedly a weird game but, Moore saw 10 targets with his team playing from behind.  I don’t have stats to see what quarter the targets came in but he was clearly being targeted more than I thought he would and he wasn’t deemed own-able by a lot of people in a standard, 10 team league.  That is different now. PPR flex play and bench depth is how I see Moore now.

Duds

Wes Welker, WR, NE – Welker was not on the field all the time and he wasn’t the most targeted receiver… The Pats aren’t typically an open book with injuries and maybe Welker was slightly banged up… but I don’t think so.  We need to keep an eye open to figure this out but you gotta keep running Welker out there a couple more weeks, no matter how painful it gets.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Alright Turner, the offense actually appears to be moving though the air.  The reason I believe that they are really shying away from the run is that Turner did so poorly ON THE ROAD.  In the past they leaned on Turner and the run game when they traveled and Matt Ryan just went nuts in this game anyways. You’ve gotta love what you saw from the passing game… unless you own Turner.  Try and get him to your bench if you can… but it will probably be tough.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I am not going to panic as the Giants as a whole did not play a good football game but, I think Nicks is the guy they look at to pick them up and give them a tide-turning play and he couldn’t do that.  3 points is NOT enough from a WR1 and I know I’m not alone in having a team at 0-1 because of him.  Expect better the rest of the way and try to remember that the Giants are historically slow starters.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – In the preseason, CJ looked almost back to 2k form.  He looked more like he was in 1k form in this game.  The Titans were facing the aerial assault of Tom Brady but they kept the game in reach for a while and if Johnson was more effective, he’d have gotten more touches. The lack of RB depth forced people to take a chance on Johnson but he could prove to cost a LOT of people their season if he can’t get it turned around. Now.

Peyton Hillis, RB, KC – This was the “back up” that was supposed to be safest to play… Charles was indeed held to a limited number of touches and HE was effective with them… but the Chiefs were down quick and had to throw, leaving Hillis with not much to do. Don’t overreact yet but maybe he won’t be the smartest flex play until that offense settles down.

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Falcons at Saints

Monday Night Football promises to be a great game and it has quite an impact on the NFC playoff picture. The Saints are looking to wrap up the division title at home against the Falcons this week and Atlanta is hoping to cling to clinch a playoff spot with a win.  Atlanta will need to lean heavily on Michael Turner in an effort to keep Drew Brees on the sidelines.  Brees has been the MVP of the second half of the season and the offense as a whole is playing as well as it has since their Super Bowl season. Darren Sproles is the only Saints runner worth the risk this week against a stout Falcons rush defense ranked 4th in the league. The New Orleans defense is not scary enough to downgrade any Atlanta offensive players but Julio Jones is always a risk to have a weak game despite his spot in my rankings at 16. Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham are both must-starts and should see an increase in targets with the running game struggles.  I like the Saints to win this game on the arm of Drew Brees with home field advantage, they have been too good lately to expect a sudden collapse.

Chargers at Lions

The situation is slightly different for each team here but each will be desperate for a win.  If Detroit wins they are in the playoffs and if San Diego loses they are out.  For some reason San Diego always seems to live up to their expectations at the end of the year but it is usually a matter of whether or not they can dig out of the hole they dug for themselves earlier in the year. They dug a deep hole this time but two more wins just might dig them out of it. They are one game back from both the division lead, which Denver is currently trying to hold on to, and the second wild card spot. Detroit can lock-in a wild card spot with a win as they are 2 games ahead of a sea of 7-7′s who are all hoping to squeak their way into the post season. Ryan Mathews remains a quality start for fantasy owners this week with Detroit allowing over 130 yards per game on the ground.  San Diego is ranked 6th in the league and could decide that two people are a must on Calvin Johnson every play, which would turn Titus Young into a nice flex option.  I like Detroit to win this game but they will have to find a way to exploit the Charger defense and if Calvin Johnson does draw double teams, he needs to beat them anyways.

Giants at Jets

The Jets are officially listed as the home team in this game but it  won’t affect anything but the coin toss.  I am very interested to see how the Jets deploy Revis between Nicks and Cruz. We can be sure that the majority of the snaps will be for Nicks, who has been on a bit of a hot streak over the past three weeks.  The gap between the two receivers is as small as it’s been in a while with Cromartie the more likely corner back to be exploited. The Giants have generally been a let down recently and I think it all starts on defense.  They have had a lot of trouble stopping the run and hundred yard rushers are common.  Shonn Greene is a must start this week as he looks to continue his own hot streak.  Greene will be the story of this game and I think the Jets pull out the win.

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