With only one spot up for grabs in the NFC playoff picture and 2 spots open in the AFC, there are a lot of teams with little to play for and this week is a bit of a mess.  This is exactly why leagues should all be finishing on week 16.  You should talk to the commissioner about next season if it is not.

Love

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – They have been out of the playoff race for a long time so it’s not like the motivation is gone for Newton, who wants to continue to expand on the records he has already eclipsed in this incredible rookie season. New Orleans’ defense thrives on generating pressure, which is hard to do when the QB can just take off running.  Newton will be able to score points against this defense and maybe even a win if Brees and the rest of the Saints’ starters take some of the game off.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – When the game is on the line, Eli is going to look towards Nicks.  Victor Cruz might be the new talent but this game is no joke; win the game and win the division. Dallas’ secondary is not going to contain these two and it will be up to Romo to outscore Eli. Both Giants receivers are good starts this week.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – People were quick to call Spiller a bust as he sat behind Fred Jackson but ever since he has taken over for Freddie, he has improved on a weekly basis. Statistically and fundamentally, Spiller has made progress with each passing game.  He is learning to hit the pocket quickly and get up field and his ability to be an impact in the passing game makes him a very versatile threat.  Buffalo has a tough choice going into next season about who to start but fantasy owners do not, Spiller has to be out there.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – Johnson faces the league’s worst pass defense and is playing what is potentially his last game as a Buffalo Bill.  He would like to impress as he heads into an off season where he is a free agent to help drive up the size of his next contract, with whichever team that may be.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – After being dead wrong about how Lynch would perform against by far the best rush defense in the league last week, there is zero chance that I would make the same mistake twice.  Consistency has always been the downside with Lynch.  He has however been consistently phenomenal the 2nd half of the year and is very likely to go as a top 10 RB in next season’s draft.

Hate

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben is likely to take it easy this week, should he play. He faces a Browns defense that is stout against the pass and weak to the run.  Expect a heavy dose of the ground game and less of an emphasis on the aerial assault.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – I think the Buccaneers will still look to Blount first but they showed last week that he is on a short leash and you should expect them to yank him out of the game if he has any more fumbling problems.  He is just too risky for a start this week in my opinion.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Even if he comes back, he isn’t an auto-start.  The Texans aren’t likely to push him back and I expect him to see limited snaps.  He is a flex play at best on talent alone.  There still aren’t many red zone targets in the league and I would think that is where they would hope to use him the most.

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Studs

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – He only had three catches but when one of them is a 99 yard TD grab, it’s a good day regardless. Cruz had 167 yards and a score on those three catches in a BIG win for the Giants.  He will need another big win next week against the Cowboys to make the playoffs and Cruz will remain a must-start and one of the biggest free agency acquisitions of the 2011 season.

Bills, D/ST, BUF – The Buffalo defense started the season as an incredibly opportunistic unit that forced an absurd amount of interceptions and turnovers.  Going into this game, Tim Tebow had just 5 interceptions on his entire career and yet he had 4 in this game.  The only thing I take from this game is the same thing I took from the Bills-Patriots game earlier in the season; The Bills defense has some great pieces in place for the future and they faced a QB having an off day.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – The Packers bounced back quick against the Bears this week and did so on the arm of Aaron Rodgers as normal.  They were still without Greg Jennings but Nelson stepped up in a big way. Nelson was over 100 yards with 2 scores and really rewarded his fantasy-owners that stuck by him the past couple weeks.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – Spiller just keeps getting better with each passing game.  People were eager to call him a bust but there was just no reason to do so as he wasn’t given a chance to succeed behind Fred Jackson.  Since Jackson went on IR and Spiller took over, he has gotten better with each passing game. Expect that to continue next week against a poor Patriots secondary.

Joe Webb, QB, MIN – The Vikings were playing mediocre football when Christian Ponder left the game this week with a concussion and Joe Webb stepped in. Webb attempted just 5 passes but still got to 20 fantasy points with 4 completions for 84 yards and 2 passing TDs.  He also had 5 carries for 34 yards and another TD.  Webb is a playmaker and will be a bit “feast or famine” when he plays.  But if your in a 2 QB league or able to play a QB in your flex spot, Webb might be a solid play in your week 17 super bowl.

Duds

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – The Bengals had a soft match up against the Cardinals this week and they won to keep their playoff hopes alive. Benson on the other hand only had 50 yards on the ground and yet with two lost fumbles, his fantasy owners got just one fantasy point. Huge disappointment.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – Clearly the Bengals relied on some unusual suspects this week in their win, with the 2nd offensive star showing up on my Duds list.  Green had been a huge offensive star for the Bengals and had beaten almost every match up that he had faced this season.  He did not get the better of Patrick Peterson however and had just 25 yards receiving. He also had 25 yards rushing to add a couple extra points in there but four points is disappointing.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – After fumbling the opening snap of the game, Blount didn’t see the field much Sunday.  Head coach Maurice Morris said ”To not get that play executed on the first play of the football game is unacceptable” and he is right.  He also said that he won’t give up on Blount but his fantasy owners should next week.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – The Panthers won big and Smith was a big part of their turn-around season.  He was not a big part of this win though. Just two fantasy points.  He was never the most consistent receiver but you should still be starting him next week if your still alive.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – You don’t need me to tell you that starting the Law Firm is really risky these days but just one fantasy point is a huge disappointment.  I know he is in a committee system but he used to see the lion’s share of the work. He doesn’t always get that anymore.

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Pickups

Kahlil Bell, RB, CHI – The Bears have lost any playoff hopes with an expected loss to the Packers this week.  Their offense did as well as you could have hoped for if you owned anyone in fantasy football this week and it all started with Bell. He ran for 121 yards and threw in 38 yards receiving as well. He should have scored a TD too but he fumbled into the end zone and an offensive lineman scooped it up for the score.

Joe Webb, QB, MIN – The Vikings offense struggled this week until Christian Ponder got knocked out of the game with a concussion.  Webb came in and immediately walked down the field on three consecutive possessions for a TD.  With Webb being effective and the Vikings’ season already over, I don’t think the Vikings are going to risk rushing Ponder back too soon with a head injury.

James Jones, WR, GB – Of all the people on this list that have a serious chance of making an impact on your Super Bowl, James Jones has highest upside.  Green Bay’s offense was back and firing on all cylinders and I expect Aaron Rodgers to play for at least the first quarter with 1st place completely locked up.  After that, Matt Flynn is a more than capable backup.  He almost beat Tom Brady in prime time last year when Rodgers was out with a concussion and the Lions defense is certainly beatable.  It is also worth noting that Detroit has locked up a wild-card spot  and is not playing for anything this week either.

Jared Cook, TE, TEN – Cook has blown up over the past two weeks.  He topped a hundred yards last week and out-did himself this week with 169 yards and a score.  A lot of successful teams play tight-end roulette and if Cook hasn’t been snatched up yet, he is as safe of a bet as you can find on free agency.

Evan Royster, RB, WAS – Anyone getting that many carries is worth a spot on someone’s fantasy team, even if he is on Mike Shanahan’s team. Helu might come back but even if he does, who knows what Shanahan will do.  At bare minimum, if your opponent is light at RB, you don’t want him to have access to this guy so scoop him up or he will.

Dump List

There is no player too good to drop, assuming your opponents don’t need him.  You are in the Super Bowl and your opponent has 3 top 10 WRs then you can cut ANY receiver that you want to make room for someone you might need, or more importantly that your opponent might need.  Good luck to you all!

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Question 1: Asked by Ray

I need 3 of the 5 wide receivers.  Fitzgerald, Wallace, Brown, L Robinson, D. Jackson.  My gut says Fitz, Wallace and Robinson. What would you do?

Answer

I think Fitz and Wallace are no-brainers so stick with them for sure. The third option that you should consider is Brown.  With Mendenhall not performing up to expectations this season, Pittsburgh has looked to the passing game on offense.  They have really turned to both Wallace and Brown and each of them have responded in a big way. Assuming Ben plays, he will have a better time against the Rams defense as opposed to the last game against the 49ers and Brown gets too many targets to not play against that secondary.  With Laurent Robinson playing in a fair number of two-receiver sets, he is bound to see more attention than most slot receivers.

Question 2: Asked by Eric

I am playing for the championship.  I have to start one of the following.  Marshawn Lynch, Victor Cruz, or Dez Bryant.  I have to start two of them if Chris Johnson is not able to play.  Could you rank them for me?

Answer

I rank em Cruz, Bryant, Lynch. It is tough to sit Lynch after the last 5 weeks he has put together but I don’t think has hardly any chance at success in this one. He faced the Bears last week, a top 10 rush defense, and managed just 40 yards.  This week he plays the 49ers, who are by far the best rush defense in the league.  What saved Lynch’s fantasy value last week was two short TD’s but San Fran has yet to allow a rushing TD at all this season.

Question 3: Asked by @Steel_Thoughts

WR, Pick 2. D.Bryant(Vs PHI), Wallace(Vs STL), S.Moss(Vs MIN) or D.Thomas(@ BUF)? NonPPR

Answer

Wallace has a great match up and is a great start.  Demaryius Thomas is very likely the guy I would go with.  He isn’t as proven or consistent as Bryant and it is a VERY close call but he has had a string of really good games and I think he is sure to have a decent yardage total this week against the Bills. Targets are being spread thin in Dallas this week and against the Eagles in town, Dallas is going to focus on the run a bit more than usual.  Trust your gut though, this is a VERY close call. They are right next to each other in my rankings and both in the top 20.

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