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It’s that time folks.  The regular season is upon us and my Player Rankings for Week 1 have been released.  I hope you are all as excited as I am and good luck to you all this season!

Love

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Charles is a guy that I believe in and as Thomas Jones ages, Charles’ carries will go up.  The Bills allowed an abysmal 169.6 yards per game, which was the worst in the league.  They did draft Marcell Dareus to help fix this problem but with a shortened off-season due to the lockout, the immediate impact of Dareus will be lessened.  Charles is among the best young RB talent in the NFL and you have to like his chances to break a big play or two against such a mediocre at best run defense.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – The Chargers were one of the teams that managed to put together a decent off season program without the help of their coaching staff or management during the lockout. Also, there wasn’t too much turn-over from last season to this season as far as the offense is concerned.  This all adds up to an uncharacteristic fast-start for Norv Turner, Philip Rivers and the Chargers in my opinion.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Denver is not just Oakland’s week one opponent, they were also last season’s 2nd worst rush defense.  This isn’t really about match-up either. McFadden averaged 128 yards per game in all-purpose yards last season and is, until further notice, a must-start in my opinion.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I’ve been pretty open about my love for Britt for a while now and with no suspension and a weak opposing secondary in week 1, Britt is a must-start in my opinion.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – You may be surprised to see ME put this guy on my love list, because I was not big on him going into the draft.  My concern with Hillis has always been about durability and the fact that Montario Hardesty is more talented than Hillis and below him on the depth chart.  I think that at some point this season, Hillis misses a game and Hardesty is someone I think will be able to take advantage of the playing time and win the starting role. Until then, Hillis is a great RB 2 and especially against a team led by a rookie QB (Cincinnati).

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Freeman and the Buccs lost to the Lions at home last season and it cost them a playoff spot.  You think they want revenge? Because I’ll bet they are pretty pumped to start the season off with a W in such a meaningful way.  The Lions bolstered their defensive front this offseason while not addressing their porous secondary.  I expect Freeman to look deep a few times in this game and a tough week 1 for LeGarrette Blount if the Buccs can’t move the ball in the air.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – Let’s not mistake this for some crazy Kerry Collins love.  This is about the Texans secondary being almost the worst in NFL history last season and having to adjust to a new system ran by Wade Phillips.  Wayne is a very consistent and complete receiver and he is who Collins will trust on third downs.  He just barely cracks my top 20, but that makes him a starter.  Don’t let the lack of Peyton scare you into benching him.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – I wouldn’t have drafted him as my RB2, but injuries are the concern here and a healthy Beanie Wells should have a good day against the Panthers in week 1.  Cam Newton is not likely to start too smoothly in his first regular season NFL start without a short off-season and it’s very possibly that this is an ugly game for Carolina fans.  I expect the Cardinals to lead-off with a heavy rushing attack to ease new QB Kevin Kolb into a routine and comfort level too.

Hate

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – A lot of people reached for Julio Jones on draft day because of the absurd combine performance he had and how much the Falcons gave up to draft him.  What they don’t realize is the complexity of the Falcons offense as well as the lockout will severely limit the plays that Jones will be on the field for.  He will spend a  lot of time running deep routes to attract safety help out of respect for his speed and he will do a much better job of opening up passing lanes for Roddy White than anything else.  Look for Jones to start slow and slowly become a viable flex play.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – You are in trouble this week if you drafted Flacco as a starter or maybe as your backup to Peyton.  Flacco faces the division rival Steelers and after what I saw them do to Vick in the preseason, the focus will likely be on grinding out Ray Rice and the running game.  Flacco could have troubles breaking double digit points in this game.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – Bowe had a great season last year and there is little chance he can repeat those numbers.  He played the Bills last year and was held to just 16 yards on his 3 catches.  Fantasy owners barely noticed this lack luster performance because a very short TD catch was involved and he ended up not ruining anyone’s week.  Don’t expect Bowe to be anything more than a good WR2 and you won’t get burned.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SF – Lynch made for an interesting draft selection this year with top 20 potential.  But let’s make him prove he can live up to it before we risk a roster spot for him yet.  He faces a stout 49er line-backing corp led by Patrick Willis and Lynch is too inconsistent for my liking at the moment.

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This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years.  While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.

The First Seven

As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs.  Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance.  Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down.  Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league.  I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall.  Logic is bound to prevail  I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value.  This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense.  Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season.  In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value.  New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format.  Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner.  I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.

The Top 20

Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8^th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson.  Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season.  MJD slid to 9^th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run.  LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues.  Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11^th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense.  Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13^th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense.  Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion.  I have him at 16^th.  He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury.  All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work.  Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries.  Definitely not on the goal line though.

Backups and Flex Options

This is where I do not want to pick many running backs.  The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven.  The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene.  He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role.  I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23^rd and 21^st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush.  Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload.  I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play.  Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2.  I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again.  Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29^th in the rankings.  I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee

Busts

Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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