Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are never satisfied with anything but success and with the spotlight always bright for the Cowboys, there is almost always a focus on the skill positions.  I was very happy to see that Dallas was able to recognize their needs on the offensive line and front seven of their defense.  In the first round, with the 9^th overall pick, Jason Garrett grabbed a new franchise left tackle to protect Romo and bolster their running game which was their Achilles heel all last season.  Tyron Smith is 6’5’’ 307lbs and while he has some weaknesses in his game, he is a freakish athlete that should be able to play in this league for more than a few years.  In round two, Dallas took what many believe to be among the biggest steals of the draft.  Bruce Carter, LB from UNC, is 6’2’’ 241 lbs and is a very quick, explosive player.  I expect him to start out as the weak-side ILB for his first few seasons, but look for him to transition to the strong side (or even OLB) depending on team need and scheme in the future. Personally, I was not too high on Carter but I do think that the Cowboys benefited from him sliding into the 2^nd round, where even I agree he was a bargain despite his injury.  I did not get the 3^rd round selection of DeMarco Murray, because a team with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice shouldn’t really need to take a change of pace back this early in the draft. The 4^th round pick of David Arkin was their best in my opinion.  Arkin was a standout player for Missouri St. and is able to play at either guard spot or center.  He may need some time to develop into a reliable starter, but he will add depth and stability to the interior of their offensive line for years to come. The Cowboys got better at the positions they needed to most, in the trenches.  They needed to address their inability to run the ball last season given all the talent and depth they have at the RB position and with two offensive lineman taken in the first four rounds they have done that.

My Grade: B+

New York Giants

The Giants won round one of this year’s draft when they took Prince Amukamara with the 19^th overall pick.  I have written about how big of a mistake it was for Houston to ignore this guy and will do the same for Detroit when I grade their division, but the Giants were able to land this future lock-down corner.  This is the perfect place for Prince to mature as there is MUCH less pressure for him to be an immediate success amidst the formidable defensive secondary that New York already had.  He will see less playing time, but should benefit from having veterans around him to show him the ropes.   In the second round, the Giants again took the best player available at a position of strength for the team.  Marvin Austin has the talent to be drafted in the top half of round one, but fell due to being a part of the group of UNC players who were suspended for last season.  He is an extremely large and dominant player on the interior of the offensive line and while he, like Amukamara, will become part of a rotation, Austin should make an immediate impact as well.  In the third round, the Giants took Jerrel Jernigan as a slot receiver and kick returner.  Jernigan is a shift route runner that should develop into a very solid possession receiver for Eli.  His impact might not be felt on offense this season, but expect this scrappy player to make an impact on a lot of special teams plays in his rookie season.  Jerry Reese and the Giants did a great job of sticking with the best players available and because of that, the Giants will be a FAR more competitive team this coming season.

My Grade: A+

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles had 2 picks in every round after the third (and one in rounds one through three as well of course) and made the most of this chance to add some quality depth at key positions.  In round one, Andy Reid stayed true to his usual standard of drafting his lineman with his high draft picks to take Danny Watkins from Baylor.  Watkins played tackle in college, but will likely be transitioning to guard for Philly who is trying to protect Michael Vick and open up holes for LeSean McCoy in the run game. Watkins is a big physical and relentless blocker that fits the Eagles style of play perfectly.  This was a great pick and exactly what the Eagles needed most in my opinion with two guards entering the free agent market.  Round two was more of a head scratcher for me as they reached pretty far up to select Jaiquawn Jarrett from Temple.  Jarrett is a great fit for the Eagles as he is a very physical and hard hitting safety, which they were looking for. However, most scouts had a 3^rd or 4^th round projection for him and I would have liked to see the Eagles move back in the second round and try and acquire an extra pick in the later rounds.  In round three, the Eagles selected Curtis Marsh from Utah State.  Marsh is a press-coverage cornerback with great mobility and fluid hip-movement.  He is a developmental project, but could very well start contributing in dime and nickel packages right away.  They got considerably better on their o-line and secondary in this draft and with a team full of playmakers already on the roster, they were able to pick up some key players in needed positions.

My Grade: B

Washington Redskins

The Redskins are in rebuilding mode and despite having a QB situation that is murky at best; Shanahan selected two defensive linemen in the first two rounds.  Ryan Kerrigan was taken with the 16^th overall selection after Washington traded down to pick up an additional 2^nd round selection.  Kerrigan was a highly disruptive pass rusher during his career at Purdue and should make an immediate impact paired with Bryan Orakpo.  The 9^th pick of the 2^nd round was spent selecting Jarvis Jenkins out of Clemson.  Jenkins is a very large interior defensive lineman who can play in either the three of five techniques.  He is especially gifted at defending the run by eating up blockers without surrendering his gap.  Many times throughout his college career, a third blocker was needed to move this guy.  The Redskins traded back 4 times in the 2^nd round with their extra selection and were able to get an additional 4 picks in the later rounds.  In round three the Skins took Leonard Hankerson from Miami, who is a big physical WR that has the skill set to be a #1 receiver for this offense.  He isn’t the fastest guy on the field, but neither is TO and he has caught his fair share of touchdowns. In the fourth round Shanahan drafted himself a running back that fits the style of runner that he has worked so well with, in the past.  Roy Helu from Nebraska is a one-cut runner that excels between the tackles and could earn a starting job for Shanahan by the end of his rookie season.  Like I said, the Skins are rebuilding and they are bringing 12 rookies onto their roster to compete for a spot on the squad.  When you need to make a lot of changes, sometimes the best thing you can do is clean house.

My Grade: A-

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Denver Broncos

The Broncos had the NFL’s 2^nd worst rush defense.  They lacked playmakers in their front seven to help Elvis Dumervil disrupt opposing offenses.  They allowed an absurd 154.6 yards per game on the ground and despite breakout seasons from a variety of offensive players… the Broncos were unable to finish better than 4-12.  This staggering disappointment for a team averaging 21.5 points and 348.9 yards per game on offense led to the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, who really gave this team a boost in his first couple seasons.  Unfortunately, each season ended with a meltdown and no playoff appearance, so now John Fox is going to try his hand at running this Broncos franchise. Denver held the third overall draft pick and went with the best pure-pass rusher that this draft had to offer.  Von Miller is almost a sure-fire success at the NFL level and while it is hard to criticize the pick at all, I fully expected them to take Marcell Dareus to fix their issues with the running game.  This however, is not the way John Fox operates.  When he arrived in Carolina, he drafted Julius Peppers to build his defense around.  This is the role that Miller will fill in the John Fox scheme and we should expect him to flourish.  The Broncos ended up with two 2^nd round picks as well, taking Rahim Moore (FS) and Orlando Franklin (OL).  Moore is a great player and a good value where he was selected, but I do not feel that the need in the secondary was great enough to warrant this pick.  Taking Miller in the first meant this pick needed to be spent on the defensive line and no DL was taken by Denver until round 7.  At the end of the day, the Broncos got players that will contribute, but they did a poor job of matching picks with needs.  I would not expect to see a winning football team in Denver next season, since they are still unlikely to be able to stop the run.  I would also expect to see some long-time Broncos leave the team once the lock out is lifted as the Broncos try to rebuild under their new coach.

My Grade: B-

Kansas City Chiefs

The 2010 season was a breakout year for the entire Chiefs organization.  They led the league in rushing with a two-headed attack of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, with Dwayne Bowe finally being a playmaker and finishing the season with 15 touchdowns (just 3 behind the league’s leader, Arian Foster).  Going into this draft, the Chiefs needed to get impact players who could make a difference immediately. They managed to do that.  They drafted Jonathan Baldwin late in the first round to be a compliment to Bowe, as he was the only viable receiving threat they had at the receiver position.  Baldwin is 6’4’’, 228 lbs. and has incredible athletic ability for someone of that size.  The biggest knock on him thus far has been consistency, but if Haley and the Chiefs were able to get Dwayne Bowe’s act together, Baldwin should be able to benefit greatly from what this organization has to teach him.  Round two led to the selection of Rodney Hudson, a strong, intense interior offensive lineman.  This is really the last drastic need on offense for the Chiefs, who are now ready to go as far as Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel can take them.  With two picks in round three, the Chiefs finally addressed the defensive side of the ball.  With the 70^th overall pick, the Chiefs took Justin Houston, a very talented pass rusher from the OLB spot.  He slid primarily due to character issues, but the third round was clearly a steal for a player with this amount of pure talent.  I am very big on this draft for the Chiefs, who stayed disciplined and followed their draft board to get the players that will help them try and repeat as division champions.

B+

Oakland Raiders

I have to keep telling myself to just grade the draft here, due to how absurd the firing of Tom Cable was to me.  Admittedly, the Raiders are a franchise that demands success immediately… but they got it.  The drafting of JaMarcus Russell turned the Raiders into a punch line for a few seasons, but without him Cable took a fairly mediocre team and swept this division with it.  Playoffs or not, this was an impressive feat and makes you almost a shoe-in for a playoff run the next season.  Cable built the team to win in the AFC West and it did, so why get rid of him?  See, here I go again… back to the draft!  In round two Oakland got themselves a tough interior lineman to open up holes between the tackles for Darren McFadden when they took Stefan Wisniewski.  In the third round Al Davis did what he does, drafted a speedster with incredible physical attributes.  Defensive back Demarcus Van Dyke was among the fastest defensive backs at the combine and surely got Al Davis’ attention there.  This pick makes sense, because of the unpredictable nature of the Nnamdi Asomugha contract and the lockout combined.  I expect Asomugha to leave the team and there to be a big hole in the Raider secondary as a result.  Hopefully Van Dyke isn’t too much of a developmental prospect, because he could be needed right away.  The Raiders did not have a round 1 pick, but even so, they did very little to help themselves immediately… apart from drafting Wisniewski.

D+

San Diego Chargers

For a team that is a contender EVERY year, sometimes missing the playoffs is a good thing.  With the 18^th overall pick, the Chargers made one of the better first round selections when they took Corey Liuget from Illinois.  He is 6’2’’ 298 lbs and is going to be an effective run-stopper in this league.  The thing that really sets him apart as an interior d-lineman is his ability to contribute on pass rushing scenarios as well.  Liuget is a factor on all 4 downs and should anchor the front seven of San Diego for years to come.  Round two saw the Chargers pick twice and to my surprise both picks were also on the defensive side of the ball.  The Chargers added Marcus Gilchrist (DB) and Jonas Mouton (LB) to the roster with expectations that each will contribute on special teams.  I think Gilchrist has a chance to make the field on defense immediately however in nickel and dime packages and potentially even at safety, should there be any injuries through the course of the season.  Mouton has exceptional speed for a man his size and should immediately see the field on kickoff and kick return teams, but with the level the Charger defense played at last season, I just can’t see him playing a significant role on the defensive side of the ball for a little while. I was surprised to see no receivers taken by San Diego this year, but I guess the Special Teams was really what doomed them and Phillip Rivers will find SOMEONE to catch passes (Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson sound good enough?).  Not a great draft in my opinion, but they didn’t need to have one, they are still Super Bowl contenders next season.

My Grade: C+

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Houston Texans

The Texans made what I believe to be a critical error in the first round when they passed on Prince Amukamara with their 11^th overall pick.  This is not at all a slight on JJ Watt, who will be a successful defensive end in Wade Phillips’ new scheme. The Texans allowed 4,280 yards through the air last season, just 261 yards off of the record for worst in NFL history.  Amukamara is a shut down corner that has proven to be consistent and durable over his two seasons as a starting corner back in Nebraska.  His list of accomplishments includes being a 2010 First-Team All-American and 2010 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. I do not think an acceptable solution for such a terrible secondary is to upgrade the pass rush and rely on 3^rd and 4^th round selections (Brandon Harris and Rashad Carmichael) to become a starting CB in Peyton Manning’s division. Again, time will show that Watt and 2^nd round pick Brooks Reed are quality players along the front 7 and will provide an effective and highly disruptive pass rush for many years.  But, for this season, apart from signing Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency (whenever that occurs), the Texans are going to continue to allow too many big plays for their offense to compete with. And it should go without saying that for THIS franchise, this draft will be judged on the impact it has on making the Texans making the post season next year.

My Grade: D+

Indianapolis Colts

This was a solid draft for the Colts, nothing flashy… but with their first pick they took Anthony Castonzo (6’7’’ 311 lbs) to be a bookend left tackle for the remainder of Peyton Manning’s career and likely the start of the next guy’s too.  This is a smart choice for Bill Polian and the Colts considering there was a slight disturbance in the timing of the Colts’ offense this past season.  I thought the Colts would attack the wide receiver and/or running back positions as Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai’s careers start to rapidly deteriorate, but Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie(if he can stay healthy)  and Donald Brown will have to suffice until then…  But, mostly because in round two Peyton’s offensive line got another new bookend tackle for the right side in 6’4’’ 317 lb. Ben Ijalana.  Ben will take a little time to reach his full potential, but for now he will provide depth to the tackle position and should allow for Manning to let his pass routes develop and stay on his feet until retirement.   The rest of the Colts’ picks were mostly unexciting, I was not a big fan of 4^th round pick Delone Carter, RB from Syracuse, but he is likely to see at least a little playing time in the rotation since Donald Brown, Joseph Addai and Javarris James all made the field last season.  Bottom line here is the Colts did not need much to remain divisional favorites and they got it, with the only exception being a ball hawk for their secondary… but free agency could still solve that problem.  I am not so sure they can make another playoff run without a trusted running back to run the ball, but Manning can fill a lot of gaps and he sure knows how to demand the most from his teammate.

My Grade: A-

Jacksonville Jaguars

I am on record as not being a David Garrard fan; I have called him an average player and said that each year with him at QB is one of abandoned potential for the Jags.  This seems harsh, but it has proven to be true again and again.  So to me, the decision to move up and take Blaine Gabbert with the 9^th overall pick was a solid one.  You cannot compete with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub by continuing to stick by a guy that has trouble winning in big games.  Average won’t cut it anymore and since Gabbert was the consensus top-qb for most analysts and teams, the fact that the Jags were able to take him as the third overall QB in the draft could prove to be a steal.  With the Jags’ 2^nd pick (which was in round 3), they took William Rackley out of Lehigh University, a small school in Pennsylvania. Rackley was a dominant tackle in college, with his limited competition.  But, in the pros he will likely transition to an interior lineman and his strong fundamentals and work ethic should prove enough to make for a smooth transition. The last pick I want to discuss was yet another small-school standout, Cecil Shorts from Mount Union.  Shorts went with the 17^th pick of the 4^th round and is a very adept route runner with great hands.  I worry some about his speed after only run a 4.59 40 yard dash at the combine, but the quickness he showed in the 3-cone drill leaves me with little doubt he will be able to create separation and get open for some big plays down the field.  It will take a little time before he might be able to compete as a number one wide receiver, but he could prove to be a difference maker right away in an offense that needs a consistent receiver.

My Grade: B

Tennessee Titans

This years’ draft was entertaining and different than any other year due to free agency not occurring until afterwards… Each team varied up its strategy, but few made a move as head-scratching as when the Titans selected Jake Locker with the 8^th overall pick.  Blaine Gabbert was still on the board and a much more complete prospect at the QB position.  Tennessee is fresh coming off of a bad experience with a mobile quarterback and selected another one with an accuracy problem.  Locker excels with his intangibles, such as leadership and work ethic, but if he was the one the Titans were targeting, why not trade back and wait for Gabbert to come off the board before you reach on a player that would likely have stayed on the board for 10-15 picks? There was only one pick made by Tennessee that I really liked and that was when they took Akeem Ayers in round 2.  Ayers is 6’3’’ 254 lbs and will join the rotation of defensive ends for the Titans.  His size coupled with his burst speed could turn him into a dominant edge rusher from the 3-4, but I think of him more as a first and second down run stuffer with enough versatility to still be a threat should the opposing offense drop back to pass.  I am not sure he can become a 4 down player, but time will tell as the Titans need a couple seasons to rebuild around their new franchise QB.  The third and fourth round picks were focused on stuffing the run with the addition of 6’1’’ 300 lb. Jurrell Casey at DT and 6’1’’ 238 lb. Colin McCarthy to play ILB.  I am not wild about either prospect, but they each have a fast motor and McCarthy should be able to contribute immediately on special teams.

My Grade: C-

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Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is in a difficult spot as a franchise and this year’s draft was pivotal.  The Ravens’ have elite talent on offense for the first time in a while, but they lacked one weapon last year, a deep threat.  Anquan Boldin was a great acquisition for the Ravens offense, but without a speedy vertical threat on the outside to stretch the field and a draw safety help over the top, he was just being double covered and prevented from impacting the game the way they had hoped.  Torrey Smith was drafted in the 2^nd round to be that weapon and at 6’1’’ 204 lbs he is explosive enough to get the job done as well as contribute in the return game.  In round 1, Jimmy Smith was drafted to join the Ravens’ experienced and veteran-led defense.  He will have ample time to perfect his craft with players like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to show him the ropes as well as being talented enough to start contributing immediately.  Baltimore made significant improvements, but the entire success of this draft is up to whether or not Torrey Smith or Tandon Doss (another speedy WR taken in round 4) is able to stretch the field and give the offense the vertical threat it needs to be both well-balanced and explosive.

My Grade: B+

Cincinnati Bengals

Of all the teams that drafted a QB in this year’s draft, Cincinnati got the best deal of them all.  Andy Dalton is from a spread style offense, but seems to have all the off-the-field intangibles that you want from a future franchise QB.  In the first round the Bengals also grabbed the top WR in this year’s draft. AJ Green is a very polished receiver that seems a sure thing to be success at the NFL level, but I do not think the Bengals made the right decision here.  The season before last, the Bengals were a run-first offense that gave roughly 30 carries per game to Cedric Benson.  In that season, they won the division and swept all three divisional opponents.  This is no small feat considering that Pittsburgh and Baltimore are in the division.  After that, they picked up Terrell Owens off free agency, prioritized the passing game and finished 4-12… behind the Cleveland Browns who went through three different starting QBs over the course of the season.  To me, it’s a no-brainer… run the ball.  I would have liked to see the Bengals trade the pick away (something tells me Atlanta was willing to pay a ton to trade up and take a WR) and draft an in interior offensive lineman to improve their running game.

My Grade: B-

Cleveland Browns

The Browns were one of the bigger winners in this year’s draft.  Their biggest need was a receiver for Colt McCoy to develop along side, but that was far from their only area of concern.  Cleveland had a chance for one of the premier receivers in this year’s draft but made the smart choice to trade the pick away to Atlanta. In the trade they acquired first, second and fourth round picks in this draft as well as a first and fourth round pick in next year’s draft.  So, despite missing out on an elite talent at their biggest position of need, the Browns enabled themselves to rebuild as a franchise quicker and more effectively. With their first round selection, the Browns took Phil Taylor to anchor the center of their defensive line while they transition to a 4-3 scheme.  Taylor is 6’3’’ and 334 lbs. and should make a good replacement for Shaun Rogers.  I would have thought Taylor would have been used more as a traditional NT, but he will certainly still be an effective run-stopper in his new 4-3 scheme. The Browns also had two picks in the 2^nd round and with the first they added an outside pass rusher to their d-line with Jabaal Sheard.  I expect him to start as the right defensive end immediately and be an impact player for quite some time.  The second pick of round two was the playmaking WR that they needed most of all.  They took 6’3’’ 220 lb. Greg Little.  Little showed flashes of big-time playmaking ability in his time at UNC, but was suspended for his final season.  This makes him a bit of a risk, but with risk comes the potential for great reward.  Little has the skill set to potentially be the best receiver taken in this year’s draft, even if the smart money is on AJ Green.

My Grade: A

Pittsburgh Steelers

I am hesitant to criticize a team that historically drafts phenomenally, but I am going to do it anyway.  I thought the Steelers should have drafted a defensive back early and with Aaron Williams still on the board, I really thought they would jump at the chance to take him.  Instead they took themselves a new defensive end to join the rotation of pass rushers that terrorizes opposing quarterbacks.  Cam Heyward is a 6’5’’ 294 lb monster to play in the five-technique and should flourish in this system, but they just needed someone to play cornerback much more and Williams slid much farther than I thought he would, because Prince Amukamara fell past both Houston and Detroit.  Again, in round two, the cornerback position remains unaddressed as they take Marcus Gilbert (6’6’’ 330 lbs.) who I actually like quite a bit as a developmental player.   Gilbert may end up being thrown into a starting right tackle role next season because of his size and mobility, but it will take a couple seasons before he can play on the left side, against all the best pass rushers the league has to offer. In rounds three and four the Steelers take a pair of defensive backs that will compete for time in nickel and dime formations, with Curtis Brown (6’0’’ 185lbs.) and Cortez Allen (6’1’’ 248 lbs.).  Brown is the more athletic of the two and the better for Pittsburgh’s zone scheme, he has the most potential to be a playmaker in the secondary and we should see him on the field much more than Allen.  Time will certainly show that the Steelers got quality players in this draft, but I just can’t help but feel like they need more talented players in the defensive backfield with Troy Polamalu.

My Grade: B-

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Buffalo Bills

Going into the draft the Bills had needs across their defensive front seven, namely at DE and OLB to provide a pass rush.  They also lacked a franchise QB, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick making their offense competitive at the end of last season, the Bills were firm in their stance that they did not need to reach for someone who is not going to the long-term future of the team.  Buffalo took Marcell Dareus with their third overall pick and it is a good one.  Dareus alongside pro bowl DT Kyle Williams should do wonders for the NFL’s worst rush defense. But when they went with Aaron Williams in round two, they lost their chance to get the outside pass rusher that this defense really needs.  To me the chance at a talent like Da’Quan Bowers in the 2^nd round was too good to pass up, but it looks like Donte Whiner is going to be replaced and Williams was a bargain in the 2^nd round after all.  In the third round, the Bills took a very complete ILB with Kelvin Sheppard.  He should help to further boost their run defense, but he won’t make a big impact rushing the passer on third down and that is what kept the Bills from getting an A+.

My Grade: A-

Miami Dolphins

I seem to be higher on what the Dolphins did in this year’s draft than most people are.  Many thought they were going to go after a QB, but they have been a run-first team for quite some time and I thought it was a mistake to get away from that last season.  In round one the Dolphins went with Mike Pouncey, likely to play Center and really bolster the middle of the offensive line and allow their running game to flourish once again.  Another reason why the Dolphins strayed from their traditional run-first attack was the age and durability of their backs.  Ricky Williams will be 34 by the end of this month and Ronnie Brown has been injury prone in the past.  Now Brown has just one season left before the dreaded age of 30 (at least its dreaded for RBs in the NFL) so, to solve this issue the Dolphins drafted Daniel Thomas. Thomas is physical between the tackles and has the ability to grind out the tough short yardage and goal line conversions to keep with the Dolphins’ theme of controlling the clock and pace of the game with their ground attack.  Lastly, in round 4, the Phins drafted speedster Edmond Gates to stretch the field after their running game has forced the 7^th and 8^th defenders into the box.  Bottom line, they made their team better at running the ball to keep Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez off the field and make it so that all Chad Henne has to do is manage the game.  I believe the Dolphins could potentially be in contention for a wild card spot, but that is up to Ronnie Brown’s health and Chad Henne’s game managing skills.

My Grade: B-

New England Patriots

I will never mock a team for picking up a franchise left tackle to keep Tom Brady healthy as he begins to approach the end of his career. I also can’t mock them for drafting a potential heir for Brady as he begins to approach the end of his career (sorry… can’t help myself, I just like saying that SOO much!), but I can dispute the other picks they made.  I’m certainly not a draft expert, but why are they drafting back to back running backs? If you aren’t confident enough in the first one, why did you draft him? Why not just pull the trigger on Mark Ingram if the position is that important to you?  I know they run a committee system in New England, but there is still little reason to burn two picks on such similar backs.  Lastly, I don’t think im alone in assuming that Ras-I Dowling would have been available considerably later, so since Aaron Williams was clearly not their guy, it seems to make sense for the trade-happy Bill Belichick to trade further back in the 2^nd round.  I will admit that they acquired more talent than most teams in the draft, but considering the number of picks they had in the first 3 rounds, I think they could have done MUCH better for themselves.

My Grade: C-

New York Jets

The Jets have had issues staying healthy along the defensive front and with Vernon Gholston being sent packing, the best thing the Jets could have done for their defense was exactly what they did do.  Muhammad Wilkerson is likely to play at defensive end in the Jets’ 3-4 front. Kenrick Ellis, drafted in round 2, was my top pure NT in this draft and he should hopefully provide stability at the center of Rex Ryan’s defense that Kris Jenkins was never able to provide.  After these two picks, the Jets picked only offensive players to help aid the development of Mark Sanchez and provide some depth at running back should anything happen to Shonn Greene or the aging LaDanian Tomlinson.  At the end of the day, the Jets made their football team considerably better with this draft and after making the AFC Championship in back-to-back seasons on the coat tails of their defense, they gave themselves a good chance to improve next season and make it into the Super Bowl.

My Grade: B+

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Part 4: The Playoffs

The key to success in the playoffs is preparation and conservative decision making.  In the previous part to this series I discussed “handcuffs” and how they are crucial to playoff success.  This is true because of inevitability and unpredictable nature of injuries.  Of course certain players are injury prone and should be devalued for that reason, but like everything else in football… anything can happen (or not happen for that matter). This is especially true come the end of the season when players start to wear down physically.

In order to know how many teams make the playoffs in your league, you will need to see your league’s commissioner at the beginning of the season. The playoffs are typically taking place in the last 2, 3, or 4 weeks of the NFL regular season.  In most leagues the last week of the regular season (week 17) is not used for the super bowl, week 16 is.  This is done to ensure that nobody loses their fantasy league super bowl because a feature player on a team that has already clinched a playoff birth is being sat by their NFL team. Peyton Manning owners can attest to this frustration as the Colts are notorious for resting players late in the year.

In leagues where 6 teams qualify for the playoffs, three weeks would be needed so the playoffs would take place in weeks 14, 15 and 16.  In this scenario the top two ranked teams would have a bye in week 14.  Pairings are typically handled just like the NFL playoffs, with the top ranked team playing the lowest ranked team and so on down the line.

For all my playoff decisions, I try to imagine how I would feel a month after if I made the wrong decision.  It is impossible to make the right choice all the time, thats the beauty of this game, anyone can lose any given week.  I just try and make sure I won’t hate myself for making the wrong decision, should it backfire.  For example, you are a Peyton Manning owner and it is week 16.  The Colts cannot improve their playoff standing at all over the next two games and declare that they plan to only use their starters for the first half of the game.  You now need to make a decision about whether half a game from the best QB in the league is better than a full game from your backup ranked 17th on my player rankings.  My general thought is that Manning is likely to get two TDs anyways and far less likely to throw multiple interceptions.  It might cost you a few points in yardage, but by playing it safe you give your team the best chance to win.  Also, you won’t often be upset with yourself for trusting Peyton in the Super Bowl… win or lose.

Thats all the advice I have for you, please keep an eye open for upcoming eBooks, blog posts and as always, I answer every last question that I have time to… so don’t be shy.

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The NFL draft is coming up quickly now and its time I release my first mock draft of the year.  I have spent a lot more time agonizing about how the top 10 picks will go, since my Bills hold the number 3 pick overall and I truly think (unless free agency gets started after the April 6^th court date) I have a pretty decent grasp as to how it will go:

Blaine Gabbert, 1^st overall pick, Carolina - It is time to tear it all down and rebuild in Carolina.  Their new coach, Ron Rivera, has just left an offense with Phillip Rivers and I don’t think he has any interest in trying to further develop Jimmy Clausen.  Cam Newton has been talked about as having the talent to go here, but there is too much to risk with the number 1 pick and Gabbert is the safest QB on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers take Patrick Peterson with this pick either, but their biggest need (QB) would still need to be addressed and when you have the top pick, it becomes very difficult to pass on someone as well-rounded as Gabbert.

Marcell Dareus, 2^nd overall pick, Denver – The Broncos rush defense has been a mess for the past few seasons.  They still have a pretty good secondary, but have fallen short of the playoffs due to abysmal d-line play for two seasons now.  Marcell Dareus is a beast of a DT and can play in just about any technique the Broncos could dream to use him in.  When looking at tape on Dareus, I can’t help but be reminded of Warren Sapp.  To me, Dareus is the best prospect available in the draft and considering DT is hands down the biggest need for the Broncos, I just don’t see him going anywhere else.

Cam Newton, 3^rd overall pick, Buffalo – As a native to Buffalo and a die-hard Bills fan, believe me when I say that the Bills need to find a way to excite their fan base.  The search for Dick Jauron’s replacement was cut short when GM Buddy Nix and owner Ralph Wilson found Chan Gailey.  Time has shown to me that this was the correct move, but at the time it was a bit of a let-down to not see Buffalo make a serious bid for a headline coach.  Now that Gailey is running the show, I expect him to get his QB with the number 3 pick due to the immense upside that comes with Newton. Gailey used to coach Kordell “Slash” Stewart in Pittsburgh and is widely known for building a scheme around the talents of his QB.  While I am not convinced that Cam is destined for greatness, there are few Coaches out there better suited to maximize his potential.  QB is not the only need Buffalo has, but with no sure-fire left tackle at the top of the draft, Chan will take his franchise QB while he still has time to develop him left on his contract.

Robert Quinn, 4^th overall pick, Cincinnati – Despite the uncertainty at QB and WR for the Bengals, they are about to embrace their identity as a run-first offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals could use some help rushing the passer.  With medical issues still encircling Da’Quan Bowers, the Bengals will take a compliment to Carlos Dunlap and solidify both DE spots with Robert Quinn from UNC.  This could change easily if Dareus, Gabbert or Newton are still on the board… but as I see things, the Bengals will not have a crack at those three guys and they don’t have much need for Vonn Miller or Patrick Peterson.

Vonn Miller, 5^th overall pick, Arizona – The Cardinals are a team that is built to win now.  They are in the softest division in the league and have no one capable of playing the Quarterback position.  I expect them to attack the free agent market and find a more seasoned QB like Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, or even Marc Bulger… which leaves them free to take the best player available for their defense.  I still can’t quite decide if that will be Patrick Peterson or Vonn Miller, but the best pure pass rusher in the draft is difficult to pass up.

A.J. Green, 6^th overall pick, Cleveland – The Browns have been in need of a playmaking WR since losing Braylon Edwards.  They have had bigger needs (like at QB) the past few years, but with Colt McCoy ready to take the starting job… he is going to need a decent target.  Green is the big playmaker that McCoy will need in order to flourish as a starting QB in a division with the Steelers and Ravens defenses.  Other possibilities are Robert Quinn (if he falls this far) or Da’Quan Bowers (if he is able to alleviate injury concerns at his pro day).

Patrick Peterson, 7^th overall pick, San Francisco – The 49ers have a new head coach, who will be looking to rebuild the team in his own image.  With the 7^th pick in the draft there are a lot of options for Jim Harbaugh.  But, with the elite QB talent gone, look for San Fran to take the best player available in LSU’s Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a shut down corner and by adding him, the 9ers maintain the best defense in their division (at least in my opinion). As far as other options, look for San Fran to take the top player available at the time… regardless of position.

Nick Fairley, 8^th overall pick, Tennessee – The Titans need a QB, but without an elite option left on the board I expect the Titans to fill the hole left by the departure of Albert Haynesworth.  Few head coaches understand the importance of offensive and defensive line play better than Mike Munchak and with a talent like Fairley available at a position of need for his team, expect the Titans to take their new DT.  Other possibilities include a QB or DE, but if the top 10 picks go at all like I expect, Fairley will be a great bargain.

Anthony Castonzo, 9^th overall pick, Dallas – The Cowboys have a pretty substantial need for a right tackle and Castonzo is, in my opinion, the only top 10 talent at the position.  I always envisioned him more at left tackle, but if they can figure out their offensive line issues, the Cowboys should go straight back to being a playoff team next season.  Other possibilities are fellow tackles Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi, or CB Prince Amukamara.

Julio Jones, 10^th overall pick, Washington – The Redskins confuse the hell out of me at the moment.  I am unsure why Shanahan does not like Donovan McNabb, but assuming there is a QB he is comfortable with in place by the start of the season… he is going to need someone to throw to.  Santana Moss had a nice run, but it is time to pick the new long term deep threat for this offense.  Other options are DE Aldon Smith or any QBs that Shanahan decides he can mold into a starter in the NFL.

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Before it gets too far away from the end of the 2010 NFL season, we should take a look back at a few players who either exceeded expectations or didn’t come close.  These players can make or break your draft next year as their former owners clamor for a chance to own their savior from last season again, or let them fall way too deep in the draft because of bitter feelings of resentment.  In order to be a good fantasy football player you have to have a short memory, but there are always a few nuggets of information worth remembering over the long-term:

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – He was a dud this past season and it is easy to think that he is getting old and no longer a factor.  I took a look at his production and found something worth noting, take a look for yourself:

Games with Matt Moore at QB

Games without Matt Moore at QB

*Matt Moore started but was knocked out due to injury in the first half.

Moore did not make the Panthers a better team by any stretch, but he clearly had a trust and connection with the only legitimate receiving threat that Carolina had last year.  I am not saying that he has much value going into next season, but the Panthers are very likely to go with a different QB next season and I do not blame Smith for his mediocre numbers. Smith could end up a gem if he can build chemistry with whoever is at Quarterback for the Panthers, so don’t be afraid to use a mid to late round pick on him at next years draft.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – What more can you ask for from the Chief’s stud running back, who burst on the scene last year? MORE CARRIES!  I have been on record saying that Todd Haley is an idiot, but it never hurts to say it again.  Charles averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was highest in the NFL for all players who saw over 100 carries on the season. Charles was also 2^nd in total yards with 1,467, not far behind Arian Foster who had 1,616.  Even more impressively, he did it on just 230 carries (Foster had 327).  Thomas Jones was the other back involved in the league’s top rushing attack and despite having just a 3.7 YPC average Jones saw 15 more carries.  This was essentially a 50/50 timeshare, but look for Charles to get better every season from here on out.  Thomas Jones is aging quickly while Charles gains experience, he will be trusted to carry the ball more often. This guy is here to stay and I do not see his production dropping off even a little next year.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was very surprised that the Chiefs made the playoffs this season and Dwayne Bowe was a big part of their success.  He started the season pretty poorly, with 152 yards and one TD in his first four games.  In weeks 6 and 7 he went up against two of the worst secondaries in the NFL and his production spiked with 189 yards and four TDs in those two weeks.  He went on a 7 game scoring streak recording 13 touchdowns during that timeframe.  Easily lost in these impressive stats is the trouble that Bowe had against quality defensive backs; In week 13 Bowe was held without a catch against an aging Champ Bailey and in week 8 against Buffalo, he had three catches for just 16 yards (though one of them was a TD).  Lastly, the team’s passing offense disappeared when Matt Cassel missed a game against the Chargers in week 14.  I don’t blame this on Bowe but for me to take a guy as my top wide receiver, I’d like to think he could get open at least ONCE for his backup QB.  All this points to Bowe having a lot of upside for next season, but it is not without risk.  Bowe is nothing more than a WR2 until he can produce more consistently, so don’t get caught paying too high a price to have him on your team next season.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI – Celek had a breakout season in 2009 when Donovan McNabb was at Quarterback for the Eagles and appeared to be a big part of their offense last season when Kevin Kolb was running the show.  Once Michael Vick took the starting job, Celek appeared to become an afterthought.  The fact is that with a mobile quarterback like Vick, the tight end will not be used as often as with a pocket passer… especially when the offensive line struggles as it did last year. The end of the season was better for Celek, but the big issue for me will be his consistency.  There might be more 10-reception games like in week 16 on the horizon, but I am much more concerned with how many 0-2 fantasy-point outings are waiting for his fantasy owners.  I think Celek has the skill to be a top-5 TE, but the situation looks to be a frustrating one for fantasy owners and you can find a better value at the position during next year’s draft.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – There was a lot of hype going into last year’s fantasy draft season about Shonn Greene being the lead guy for the Jets.  This was not the case, LT showed that he still has what it takes to be a dynamic playmaker and was pivotal to the early success that the Jets had.  Later in the year however, LT slowed down and made less of an impact.  LT might be getting old, but he still has the ability to make an impact in a supporting role.  He was used as the lead back most of the season and because of that he wore down and was not as effective a weapon late in the year.  If Rex Ryan hopes to get the most of LT deep into the playoffs he will need to lean much more heavily on Shonn Greene, which knocks LT out of my top 30 running backs for next season.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – Britt is my biggest sleeper pick for next year’s fantasy draft.  I am by no means alone in this, but there is good reason that so many people think he is about to explode… he already did.  Last season Britt started just 7 games and still managed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  This is an average of over 110 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.  These averages are slightly inflated due to a 225 yard 3 score game in week 7, but since when do we mind letting one player put up 40+ points with their backup QB?  Right now I see Britt as a top-15 receiver, but this all depends on how the Titans go about addressing their QB situation.  The Titans also have a new head coach, Mike Munchak, who was a 9 time pro-bowl offensive lineman and is sure to favor the ground game.  This actually bodes well for Britt however, because Chris Johnson will force defenders to bring an eighth into the box to contain him and severely limit their ability to double cover Britt.  I expect the Titans to look to add a veteran QB to their roster in an effort to give them a chance to win right out of the gates and if say, Donovan McNabb landed the job… the Titans would instantly have a playoff-caliber team.  All we really need now is a new CBA so that free agency can happen…

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So I want to start with two quick digressions.  The first is a quick apology for my lack of posts so far this off season, I was finishing my college degree and now that that has been accomplished and I will be posting regularly again.  The second is that I am not an NFL draft analyst and do not even play one on TV, so these are just my quick observations about what I saw when watching the offensive players workouts.   Feel free to leave a comment or find me on twitter for my opinion on the defensive workouts.

Quarterbacks

I was very excited to see this combine because of the skill and athleticism of the QB class with Blaine Gabbert being the only one to not throw in the positional drills. After the drills were completed, I was left wanting more because almost all of the QB’s seemed to struggle with their accuracy and consistency.  After re-watching the workouts I realized that a fair amount of this is not the fault of the QBs themselves. When throwing at the scouting combine, the QBs are told to throw to a spot… NOT to complete the pass. This is a difficult thing for players to do because it goes against what they have done their entire lives.  Also, the receivers make the QBs look bad.  In a few drills, the receivers were running bad routes and this is what I believe led a lot of people to heavily criticize Cam Newton’s throwing performance.

Speaking of Cam, as I am a native Buffalonian and most of the mock drafts released have placed Newton with the Bills at the third pick, I paid close attention to what Cam was able to accomplish this past week.  The first thing that stood out to me was that he beat Tim Tebow’s broad jump and 40 yard dash times from last year.  Cam posted a 4.58 forty yard dash to go with his 10’6” broad jump and really demonstrated his explosiveness and acceleration off the line.  Also, in his 3-cone drill, he covered 5 yards in just two steps which further demonstrates his explosiveness when he decides to run.  For the reasons discussed above, I do not discredit Cam due to his inaccurate throws, because the 2 or so truly errant balls were balanced by the touch and placement he showed me on some of his deep throws.  I have not made up my mind whether I want him leading my team or if I think he can be successful at the pro level, but that should become clear in his fast approaching pro day.

Jake Locker quietly had an outstanding day as many of his measurables actually matched up very well against Cam who was thought to be the most physically gifted of the class.  Ricky Stanzi was the biggest winner of all the QBs at the combine however, because of his incredible performance throwing the ball in the on-field drills.  He seemed to be by far the most prepared and the only one that was actually throwing to a spot as he was instructed.  On the 10 yard out routes, he released the ball when his back foot planted and did not wait for the receiver to make his break.  He did what the scouts wanted to see, delivered an accurate ball on a timing route to a spot where it would not be intercepted.  Most all of his passes fell incomplete, but again that is not his fault and his new team will be able to find receivers that can get to where they are supposed to be.  Stanzi has plenty of inconsistencies in his game, but he looks like a pro QB and if he can spend a few years behind the right tutor… we should see this guy as a starter in the NFL.

Wide Receivers

The breakout player of the receiving corp is a no brainer and I suspect you have already heard plenty about his day in Indianapolis. Julio Jones had an absurd day.  WITH a broken foot, Julio had an 11’3” broad jump and 4.39 forty yard dash.  These numbers were not expected from a healthy Jones and while he did not pass AJ Green on many people’s draft boards because of a good shorts and t-shirt work out, he did ensure that he will be a top 15 pick and personally I think he will go to St Louis with the 14th pick at the latest.  Other very real possibilities before the 14th selection are Cleveland or Washington if Green does not fall to them as both are in dire need of a top receiver.

Jonathan Baldwin from Pittsburgh is a big and physical receiver who was not expected to run exceptionally fast, but with a 4.5 forty yard dash he showed that he has the ability to separate from defensive backs as well as out jump them.  He will develop into an NFL caliber player and he reminds me a lot of Hakeem Nicks.  Another guy who improved his stock this past week was Randall Cobb.  While watching the workouts I heard the comparison to Brad Smith and while I wouldn’t go that far… I will say that he is a very versatile player and will certainly be used by a creative offensive coordinator somewhere.  Honestly, I think he compares better with Joshua Cribbs, who never really turned into a quality wide-out… but is one hell of a kick returner.

Running Back

Apart from Mark Ingram, this year’s running back class is pretty shallow.  Ingram did nothing to hurt his draft status in my eyes at the combine, but I was a little disappointed with his forty yard dash time.  He more than made up for his average time with an incredibly fast 10 yard split and he also displayed an aggression in his running style that solidify him as the only clear-cut first round running back.  Dion Lewis was the biggest winner among RBs as his acceleration and lateral burst were on display during on-field drills.  Another quick back that made a splash was Jacquizz Rodgers, who had a weak 40 yard dash time.  While each of these backs are unlikely to get taken in the first round, they will be a value deeper in the draft and able to make an impact for their new teams in the return game as well as being a change of pace runner.

There was one very interesting player that is not likely to be taken early at all but has a TON of upside, despite not being often talked about and that is Allen Bradford from USC.  Bradford was an after thought for the Trojan’s offense until the last game of his college career, when he saw 28 touches for 212 yards.  He is a big back at over 240 lbs, but actually ran a faster forty than Jacquizz at 4.56 seconds and lifted 225 lbs 28 times.  Look for a team to take a late-round flyer on him after the impact that LeGarrette Blount (another quick yet big RB) had as an undrafted rookie.

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Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE – Inactive

Brett Favre, QB, MIN – Inactive

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Active

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Inactive

Deion Branch, WR, NE – Inactive

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – Inactive

Marques Colston, WR, NO – Inactive

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Active

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO – Inactive

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – Inactive

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Inactive

Sidney Rice, WR, MIN – Inactive

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Inactive

Todd Heap, TE, BAL – Active

Wes Welker, WR, NE – Inactive

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