Patriots at Jets

The AFC East is still up for grabs.  Brady and the Pats have already lost more games than they did during the entirety of last season and after losing the the Giants when they didn’t have their two top offensive weapons (Bradshaw and Nicks), I am starting to think they might not be as invincible as they’ve been in years past. Thankfully for them, I think they match up well against the Jets. Welker has not really had too much issue being productive against the Jets in the past and usually Revis does not follow him all over the field. Teams have had success against the Pats this season by locking into man-to-man coverage on the less than elite receiving corp of New England and sending as much pressure as possible at Brady.  In order to get the win, Sanchez needs to play a perfect game and not give up any turnovers. If he can do that, there will be plenty of yardage and opportunities to get points on the board.  The Pats secondary has been just awful this season and still may prove to be their Achilles heel, much like it was for the Texans last year. Brady and the Pats need to lean on Law Firm and the running game in order to limit the time that their defense can be out there giving away the game.  I like the Patriots to win a high scoring affair after New York gets off to a slow start and is unable to catch up.  Welker and Brady are must-starts despite the less than appealing match-up but you should stay away from Deion Branch.  Upgrade Sanchez and the Jets receivers going against the NFL’s worst pass defense and feel free to use Shonn Greene in his typical RB2 role.

Saints at Falcons

Atlanta sits a game behind the Saints for first in the NFC  south and with the game being at home, I like Atlanta in this game.  They need to get back to running most of their offense through Michael Turner so that Roddy White and Julio Jones are able to see more man-to-man coverage and make big plays. Neither team has a scary defense that should make you concerned about giving them a start this week.  Atlanta needs to find a way to slow the Saints’ pass rush and and Turner is their best bet to do so.  Once they are able to bring the 8th man into the box, their receivers will be able to make the difference and get the win.  This game could easily go either way but Matt Ryan is almost a completely different quarterback at home and the Saints lack the depth at receiver to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Start all your typical players with confidence as this is not likely going to be a low scoring affair but do NOT expect a repeat performance from Julio Jones, who I anticipate being a very hit or miss player for his fantasy owners.  I am considering him as a very good flex play for the rest of the season unless he is able to consistently hit double digit points.

Lions at Bears

Don’t worry I won’t make  a joke about Tigers here, but this game should make a HUGE difference later on as the NFC wild card spots start to get figured out.  I think we all expect the Packers to win the NFC North and I would be surprised if at least one more team from the division didn’t make the playoffs.  Detroit is up a game on the Bears at the moment and getting this win would be huge for their playoff hopes this season. Detroit’s front seven has slipped in recent weeks and their issues with stopping the run has caused them to have issues late in games when they had been able to be so effective early on this season. Unfortunately for them they face Matt Forte this week and he has been simply incredible for the Bears.  For the past few weeks the Bears’ offensive line has been playing much improved football and when Jay Cutler has time to throw, this Bears offense is very difficult to stop and the Lions’ secondary has not been playing that great either. This is a very difficult game to predict the outcome for however with the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connection being near impossible to stop.  I wouldn’t use a Lions receiver outside of Megatron unless I absolutely needed to and I also am downgrading the Lions’ running backs.  If Best can play, which I doubt, I wouldn’t think he would see his normal workload and Maurice Morris is not quite good enough to run wild against the Bears stout defense. I like Chicago to win this close game and Cutler has a relatively clean jersey at the end of the game.

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Love

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC – Most of us doubted whether MJD could stay healthy this entire season and he has shown no signs of old age or wear and tear over the first half the year.  The Colts are an abysmal rush defense and are currently allowing over 21 points per game to opposing RB’s.  MJD is the feature back and workhorse for the entire Jags offense.  He is normally a must-start but I am looking for a huge game from him this week.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – DeSean Jackson may be a disappointment for fantasy owners this year due in large part to opponents scheming to keep his explosive plays from taking over games.  Maclin is now the top fantasy-receiver on the Eagles offense but this will not signal a shift in who defensive coordinators scheme to stop. Maclin should have a GREAT game this week and DJax should draw the attention of Patrick Peterson the vast majority of the time as well as safety help to stop the deep ball from going to Jackson’s side of the field.

Tim Tebow, QB, DEN – Tebow finally played well last week in a win that likely secured his job as the starter for the rest of the season.  Funny thing is, he has produced fantasy points no matter how bad he has played.  With a match-up against the hapless Chiefs I see no reason why he can’t pass the twenty point mark again this week.  I don’t expect another 100 yards rushing but the Chiefs secondary is vulnerable since they lost Pro Bowler Eric Berry.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – I sure hope this isn’t wishful thinking on my part as a Bills fan but I think that Stevie matches up very well against the Cowboys secondary.  They don’t have an elite cover corner to take him out of the game (and even Revis allowed him to gain 80+ yards in a game where the Bills couldn’t get much done at all on offense).  Dallas’ run defense has even been slipping as of late and I think Buffalo’s attack is too well balance for the Cowboys to keep them in check.  If Romo tosses a few INT’s it could get out of hand for Dallas, if he doesn’t throw ANY then they have a serious opportunity to win this game though.  Either way, you have to put Johnson in your lineup.

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – You might be worried because Felix Jones is possibly returning for this game against a soft buffalo rush defense that just had to put Pro Bowl Nose Tackle Kyle Williams on IR. This is a serious blow for the Bills and really impacts their chances at making the playoffs.  Jones has been very inconsistent during his time in Dallas and I think that Murray will continue to be the feature back with Jones handling 3rd down work and serving as a change of pace. You shouldn’t need any convincing to start Murray if you have seen him play in the past 3 weeks.

Laurent Robinson, WR, DAL – The Bills secondary might turn the ball over a LOT, but they also allow a lot of yardage to be gained and INT’s don’t negatively impact a receiver’s fantasy point totals.  With this match up being very decent and Robinson having an undeniable chemistry with Romo, you are able to grab Robinson off of waivers and immediately throw him into your flex spot.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – While it was encouraging to see CJ over 100 all-purpose yards again last week, that is not why he is on this list.  He has an unbelievably soft match-up against the Panthers, who have been decimated by injuries on defense.  Jon Beason was the glue that held that linebacking corp together and since he went to IR, opponents have been been running all over Carolina.  I just don’t think 8 Panthers defenders in the box is enough to slow Johnson in this game.

Hate

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – I don’t care how much practice he gets in this week, if any.  I also don’t care if Jacobs gets the start this week either, whoever the Giants play at RB is going to have a horrible fantasy performance against the 49ers, unless they do it in the receiving game. San Fran has only allowed 411 yards rushing and ZERO rushing TD’s this season.  To put that in perspective, there are five teams that have allowed over 1000 yards rushing already. Jacobs is not start-able this week and if Bradshaw plays, he is just a flex play.

Sidney Rice, WR, SEA – The Ravens defense has been lights out and especially against the pass.  I don’t know if anyone has told you this before, but Tavaris Jackson is not that good.  I would be floored if he was able to put up 200 yards in this game and that doesn’t bode well for his receivers.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – Oakland has a relatively stout rush defense and with Mathews coming off the injury, I expect him to be eased back in.  The goal line work is definite Tolbert’s and with limited carries, I don’t think Mathews is a must-start.

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 100 yards and a score from Jones.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 2 catches for 15 yards either.  This guy is feast or famine and you shouldn’t over react to one game.  If you have a really good group of receivers, then you should feel free to leave the inconsistent guy on your bench of trade him before the deadline.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – He just looked awful last week and while he has a nice match-up, there aren’t any teams on a bye this week and you probably have a better option unless you’ve been bitten by the injury bug.

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Studs

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – It is nice to see both Jackson and Rivers back with some elite fantasy numbers. Jackson went crazy in this game as the Chargers were throwing a lot to try and keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  I never really punished Jackson in my rankings for the poor play of Rivers early on and I do expect the Chargers to turn things around.  Bottom line is the Packers are the best team in the NFL and the Chargers were in that game till the end and that is saying something.

Willis McGahee, RB, DEN – Willis came back very quickly from his hand injury and I was concerned that it might have been too soon. It turns out that it was not too soon at all.  McGahee had a phenomenal game and provided a great balance to the Broncos offense.  This balance forced the Raiders to slow their pass rush on Tebow, which really allowed him to excel in this game too.

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – It finally happened and I can’t really say that I am surprised. Jones’ talent was self-evident and it was only a matter of time before his big play ability led to a huge fantasy performance. Jones is going to be a bit of a hit or miss guy but I think he is a very good flex play. You don’t want him to have these type of games on your bench.

Matt Moore, QB, MIA – What the hell Kansas City? Coming off a three game winning streak, you can’t beat the Dolphins at home? They LOVE to lose and have been finding a way to forfeit games all season.  I was mildly considering the Chiefs as a potential wild card contender despite their injuries but that is dead now. Moore is not a serious option down the stretch as KC’s secondary is not very good without Eric Berry.

Reggie Bush, RB, MIA – We might need to consider Bush for more than a potential flex play.  Daniel Thomas was active in this game and Bush stole the show again.  He was just shy of 100 yards rushing and had a TD.  Once you add the 50 yards receiving, you’ve got a 20 point fantasy outing.  I think Bush has won over the coaching staff, who would probably like to stay employed and I think we can expect 15-20 touches for Bush as long as he stays healthy.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – This was an impressive outing for Lynch who has been unbelievably inconsistent since he had that 1000 yard rushing season as a Buffalo Bill a while back.  This isn’t a situation like Julio Jones, where you want to start the guy on a weekly basis to avoid missing these performances.  Lynch doesn’t often have even a decent game and I don’t see how he can be trusted unless he gets another solid performance or two over the next couple of weeks.

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – I don’t think there will be much of a competition for touches with Felix Jones anymore.  Murray has been great, even when the offense has struggled. I think Murray has earned a feature-back role in this offense and might be one of the best keepers going into next season.

Duds

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – He clearly isn’t ready or capable of being a lead back in the NFL.  He might have still be seeing the bulk of the carries on this offense next week against the Rams but if you don’t need him for next week, get rid of him. Hardesty is the guy I expect to take over the starting job when he returns from injury and I think he has a decent shot at being a solid flex play once he does indeed return.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – This is not a surprise to me. Hey-Bey has speed and can be tough to cover at times.  It is not yet clear if there is a reason why he didn’t get on the field very much after 4 straight games of 8 or more fantasy points but I’ve been steadfast in saying that Jacoby Ford is the best receiver on that team and the guy I want to own.  I’m not excited about starting any of them quite yet but as Palmer improves and gets acclimated to this offense, the value of Ford might rise significantly.

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – This was a very winnable match up for the Eagles who went from being a team I thought would make it into the playoffs as a wild card team, to probably being too far behind to be a factor.  I am not concerned too much about any Eagle’s fantasy value the rest of the way as the schedule looks very favorable and this team is about big plays, which are near impossible to rely on.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – It is crazy to me that Wells was shut down by the Rams defense when he has had some good performances against some solid rush defenses this season.  I am going to treat this as an anomaly but I am certainly a little nervous about how bad he was in this game.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – I think you need to keep starting this guy but he has NOT been a very good player for fantasy owners.  I am done ranking him above Maclin after 0 points this week. But at least as a flex play, you HAVE to keep him in the game.

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Pickups

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith might have lost the trust of Flacco when he dropped the almost game-winning TD pass late in the game last night. The problem is, there was no one else for Flacco to look to a few plays later.  So Smith managed to make amends and hauled in a TD grab with less than 20 seconds left in the game.  Smith is a big-play threat and has at least three receptions in 5 of the last 6 games.  He will continue to improve and he has to be owned in all leagues.

Roy Helu, RB, WAS – Helu is available in over 80% of leagues as the Redskins offense has been terrible in recent weeks. Tashard Choice joined the Skins to further cloud the workload division for Shanahan but as the season slips away from them, I think it is safe to assume that Washington will look to the young guy and see what he can do.

Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK – I have been pretty steadfast in my evaluation that Ford is the top fantasy receiver in Oakland.  Carson Palmer created some doubt in my mind as each QB will have different levels of chemistry with each receiver but I am convinced again.  Ford is the top fantasy receiver in Oakland and the only one that I would even consider starting. And he is available in over 60% of leagues.

Jake Ballard, TE, NYG – There has only been two games this season where Ballard has been under 5 fantasy points.  Those games were in weeks 2 and 3.  Ballard gets his fair share of targets and makes the most of them. I am going to be considering him a top 10 TE and a weekly starter, regardless of match up.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – He has pretty clearly established his role in the Steelers offense. He is available in just over 30% of leagues and you need to go get him if he is out there in yours. No one has been targeted more on the Steelers and I think his value is only going to continue to rise.

Ben Tate, RB, HOU – Tate is only owned in roughly 60% of leagues and should be owned in all of them.  Both Tate and Foster were over 100 yards and while Foster will remain the lead back in the Texans’ offense, Tate is going to maintain value and would be a top 15 guy in the event that Foster missed any time. In the mean time, Tate is a potential flex play in the weeks where both guys are active.

Dump List

Jonathan Baldwin, WR, KC – Just when I thought the Chiefs might turn out to be a competitor despite all their injuries, they lose to the Dolphins and can’t even manage much in the way of offensive production.  Baldwin looked like he might take off and develop into a decent fantasy-receiver. My confidence has been shaken quite a bit and Baldwin was a long-shot to begin with, so cut your losses and get rid of him now.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB – I still expect the Packers to ride the hot hand but we wont be able to see it coming when Grant is going to see the work.  He only saw 4 carries last week and Starks was who they looked to late in the game when they were trying to run the clock and seal the win.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – Williams hasn’t been in double digit fantasy points since week 1 and while he hasn’t really blanked in a game for a few weeks, in shallow leagues you can drop him for an appealing prospect like say… Torrey Smith?

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – Garcon just isn’t someone that I can trust to start.  He has issues with drops and is on the league’s last winless team. I don’t see him becoming a consistently performing fantasy-option.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – We hoped that he might be able to be decently productive as he was bound to see the lion’s share of the carries.  He didn’t get anything accomplished and if you don’t need a fill-in for next week’s nice match up against the Rams, then feel free to cut him.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – The Raiders offense is a bit of a mystery with Palmer at QB. As I said above though, Ford is the Raiders receiver that I want to start and Heyward-Bey has too big of a track record of inconsistency for me to trust him easily.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno was essentially invisible in this game. McGahee came back early from his hand injury and ran wild in this game. Moreno’s value has officially hit rock bottom and there is no reason left to keep him on your roster that I can see.

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