Ravens at Steelers

The headliner this week will not be an exciting game for offense fans.  Among the best 2 defensive franchises of the past 10 years meet twice a year in divisional rivalry matches that are typically low scoring.  The only player I think has a good chance at having a big game for fantasy owners is Rashard Mendenhall.  He is currently 4th in the NFL in rushing and while the Ravens are historically fantastic against the run, last week they gave up 144 yards to Peyton Hillis.  There is not comparison between the two backs, but Ray Lewis and the Ravens will not allow another big game like that this week.  You should however be comfortable starting Mendenhall as normal.  Expect 80 yards and a 50% chance at a score.  Ray Rice appears to be on the right track to play Sunday, but given the pain of a deep muscle bruise and a Steelers defense that is playing better than anyone in the league, you can’t expect too much.  Given where you drafted Rice and his ability to break a big play in the passing game you will need to start him regardless.  Stay away from Jay Flacco and where possible, Anquan Boldin.  You will need some pretty great alternatives to leave Boldin on the bench however.

Patriots at Dolphins

This game will help clear up one team from the three way tie at 2-1 atop the AFC East.  The Jets have an easy path to 3-1 with a game against Buffalo, but the Monday night game between the Pats and the Phins should be pretty close.  I like the home team to squeak out a win due to how truly terrible the Patriots defense is and how effective the Dolphins are at controlling the clock at the end of the game.  It is still not known which Patriots RB will have the most value but the Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis is who you want to go with if you are in bye week trouble and reaching deep for someone.  Moss and Welker face an underrated secondary but Moss cannot be sat and Welker still made my top 20.  Neither of the running backs for the Dolphins have been too impressive but running is what the Dolphins do and the Patriots have not been able to stop anyone yet… just out score them.

Redskins at Eagles

Michael Vick’s recent success will finally be overshadowed by the return of Donovan McNabb to Philadelphia.  The Redskins did not play well at all in Week 3 when they lost to last year’s worst team… the Rams.  McNabb is not the issue for the Redskins and will certainly not roll over against his former team.  Santana Moss has and will remain a very valuable WR3 or flex play now that there is a serious play maker throwing to him.  Michael Vick finally has some quality defenses opposite him and his production will level off a bit.  I do expect him to be a top 10 QB as long as he starts simply because if he stops playing well he wont start anymore.  DeSean Jackson is quickly proving that his is still going to be able to be a dynamic weapon without McNabb and Maclin is developing very nicely as a possession receiver and red zone target.  If you own any of these Eagles you are likely going to ride out this wave, at least until it crashes.  Ryan Torain fulfilled the role of sleeper RB in Shanahan’s offense that always seems to crop up at this time whenever he is coaching in this league.  Portis will still be given a few chances to prove he can be effective in a feature role still, but it doesn’t look good and with Torain getting half the work last week I would rather own him than Portis.  You’re not starting either of them until the offense starts playing better again.

No Comments »

1. Steelers
2. Vikings
3. Ravens
4. Jets
5. 49ers
6. Eagles
7. Chargers
8. Packers
9. Patriots
10. Dolphins
11. Redskins
12. Bengals
13. Saints
14. Colts
15. Cowboys
16. Giants
17. Titans
18. Cardinals
19. Raiders
20. Panthers
21. Buccaneers
22. Chiefs
23. Cowboys
24. Texans
25. Jaguars

No Comments »

1. Steelers
2. Ravens
3. Vikings
4. Jets
5. Packers
6. 49ers
7. Eagles
8. Patriots
9. Chargers
10. Dolphins
11. Bengals
12. Redskins
13. Saints
14. Cowboys
15. Colts
16. Giants
17. Cardinals
18. Titans
19. Buccaneers
20. Raiders
21. Panthers
22. Cowboys
23. Texans
24. Chiefs
25. Jaguars

No Comments »

Week 2 is upon us and it is pretty light on the exciting match-ups in my opinion.  There is a lot of appeal on the surface of the Manning Bowl Sunday night, but more on that later.

Patriots at Jets

This is going to be one hell of a game.  It would be one hell of a surprise to have a team of the caliber of the Jets start 0-2, but their offense will need to show some drastic improvement to keep up with the high-powered Patriots offense.  Luckily for Sanchez and the Jets, the Patriots defense is terrible and they should be able to find the end zone with some decent regularity.  The battle everyone will be watching could well be what decides the game, Moss vs Revis.  History says that Randy will get shut down, but a guy of his talent cannot be benched because it takes only one play for him to have a good day.  Welker will be used much like the Ravens used their wide outs vs the Jets, to attack the other corner backs in order to move the ball down the field.  Look for Welker to have a huge day and Moss to… well… not.

Giants at Colts

The Manning Bowl certainly has a great storyline… brothers that only meet in the regular season once every 4 years. But they will never be on the field at the same time and really the Colts are a much better team than the Giants so I do not think it will be all that close of a game.  I know they lost to the Texans, but there is something to the Super Bowl hangover effect and the Colts have never started the season playing their best football.  Because of this I expect to see a much better Colts team this week.  I do have a big sleeper coming out of this game in Ahmad Bradshaw.  We all saw what Foster did the Colts with his speed and elusiveness last week, but what you may not realize is that Ahmad Bradshaw is shorter, faster and quicker than Foster.  I am in no way predicting similar statistics, but I do foresee a big performance in prime-time.  My best advice… don’t bet against Peyton Manning, it doesn’t work out too often.

Ravens at Bengals

This very well might end up the most entertaining game of the week to football purists, as two stout defenses with a lot of play makers on offense square off in a heated divisional game.  Last year the Bengals won every divisional match-up they had, but as Carson Palmer gets older the passing game gets less and less dynamic.  In the ’09 season it was common-place to see Cedric Benson have 30 carries a game which is how they will need to beat the Ravens… on the ground.  This is not typically a winning strategy against this team, however typically the Ravens have not had so many offensive weapons that you were concerned with keeping them off the field.  I expect Ray Rice and the Ravens to win this physical slug-fest and advance to 2-0 on the season.  In this match up I think the stars of this game will be the Running Backs, Cedric Benson and Ray Rice.  Also, Boldin was able to be productive against the Jets and I see no reason why that should not continue.  I don’t anticipate a HUGE game, but 100 yards receiving sounds right.

No Comments »

Vikings at Saints

There are no shortage of big games to kick off the 2010 NFL season and none are bigger than the Thursday night kickoff game.  The much-anticipated rematch of the NFC Championship game is sure to be one hell of a show with two high-powered offenses squaring off against opportunistic defenses.  To me this match up boils down to how much pressure the Vikings can get on Drew Brees with just the front four.  Last season the Vikings led the NFL with 48 sacks and they are facing the offensive line that had the fewest sacks allowed.  If the Vikings can get Brees uncomfortable in the pocket and leave seven people in coverage they should be able to control the ball with AP and get a few big plays on the Saints suspect secondary.  Brett Favre has significantly fewer weapons at his disposal this year, however if the Saints can limit the effectiveness of the ground game or force a few turnovers they should win this prime time slug-fest.  Pierre Thomas owners should look to their bench for an adequate replacement, but don’t look too far because with the release of Ladell Betts and only Reggie Bush to contend with Thomas should have a decent game… nothing too big is really possible facing last years best run defense and Bush getting the majority of the passes.  Look for big games from Marques Colston and Percy Harvin as each secondary has its issues defending against the deep ball.

Ravens at Jets

There is no denying how much Darelle Revis means to the Jets as they try to improve upon last year’s loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship game.  New York is missing its best vertical threat in Santonio Holmes and will need to rely on its ground game to win what is bound to be a fierce, defensive,  field position battle.  If Sanchez can keep from throwing interceptions to the Ravens defensive backfield that will be lacking ball-hawk Ed Reed, then the Jets should be able to win this in a close battle.  Anquan Boldin makes his debut in a Ravens uniform this week, but he is stuck on Revis Island and should not have a productive week compared to how he will do down the stretch.  I think Shonn Greene and Ray Rice owners should lower expectations for this week given the caliber of defense on the other side of the ball, but you are likely still going to be starting them anyways so no real change made there.

Bengals at Patriots

This match-up does not have quite the same appeal as the Vikings Saints offensive showdown, but for old school hard nosed football fans this could be the most exciting game of the week.  The Bengals swept their division by having a punishing run game and a stout, opportunistic defense.  The Patriots are a nightmare on third down and are never out of a game.  I think we will see a heavy dose of Cedric Benson on Sunday in an effort to keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field.  I have concerns about Wes Welker mentally having enough confidence in his knee to make the kinds of cuts that he used to.  He will be fine overall on the season  but is not likely to be quite as effective as he has been in recent years.  Still feel free to use him in your flex and WR2 in PPR leagues.  Ochocinco is still the only receiver on the Bengals worth starting this week, but big plays are certainly a possibility from TO, though they will be unpredictable and inconsistent.

Colts at Texans

The Texans are a better team than most people realize and starting the season at home against the Colts is their best chance at beating them in the regular season.  The Texans are 1-15 in franchise history against this team and the best way to convince these guys they can win the division is to beat the annual champions of it.  The Texans will be hoping to get Arian Foster the ball upwards of 20 times and Steve Slaton around 10 times by the end of the game.  If they can use their run game to supplement their explosive passing offense they should be able to remain competitive.  The Colts can’t reliably cover all the receiving threats that Matt Schaub has at his disposal this year and Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are exceedingly difficult to cover inside the red zone.  In order to win the Texans will need to force turnovers and find a way to pressure Manning without Brian Cushing, who is serving a suspension for violating the substance abuse policy.  The Colts are not a strong preseason team, and if they can’t get off to a fast start could find themselves on the ropes.  I think the Texans and Matt Schaub will play a solid game, but I never bet against Peyton Manning.  Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are both favorites of mine this week.

No Comments »

Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

No Comments »

The Patriots are, for the first time in a while, not the favorites to win the division.  With Moss aging, Welker’s return questionable at best for week one, and a scattered backfield there has been little improvement since last year. With that said, it is still Tom Brady and Bill Belichick running the show so there is no cause for concern.  Brady will not be breaking any of his own touchdown records this season, but the deep ball will remain a huge part of the offense and Moss will still be the guy catching them.  Until Welker is back there will be a drop off in the production of the offensive players, but there is no cause for concern.  As far as running backs are concerned, Maroney is the safest bet, but it will likely be done by committee.

Top Fantasy Players

Tom Brady – Brady has not declined at all, just his supporting cast.  He will find an open guy as always so draft Brady with confidence.

Randy Moss – Moss is getting older, and is not quite the same as he used to be. However, he is still among the best in the league and will have a very productive year. I rank Moss 3^rd among receivers at this time.

Wes Welker – Most of the news from the Patriots since the draft has been regarding Welker’s return to practice and drills.  While it is possible that he is ready to go by week one, it seems unlikely that they would rush him back so quickly.  Welker will have great value as a mid round pick this year.  When he returns he will see double digit targets again, you can be sure of that.

No Comments »

Welcome to the 2010 Fantasy Football preseason! I am officially declaring it started!  I will be previewing every team in the league. This week belongs to the AFC East and I am starting with the Buffalo Bills. This is not a biased decision, I promise.  I did it alphabetically.

This division is fast becoming the most competitive in the AFC.  Every team is getting better… except the Bills.  My favorite to take the division is the Jets but I would not be surprised if both AFC wild card spots were filled by the Dolphins and the Patriots.

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New York Jets

No Comments »