Pickups

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – The though of drafting Newton was absurd to me a week ago, but after a rookie debut record 422 yards and two TDs, he MUST be owned.  I won’t pretend like I thought there was a chance that Newton would blow up at any point this season, but regardless of who your starting QB is, your backup spot is about upside. Newton has the potential to be a HUGE surprise as a top10 QB on the season and with bye weeks a bit away, feel free to drop your backup on the off-chance you get to trade Newton away for a starting WR or RB.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – This rookie receiver for the Packers tied an NFL record for longest play with is 108 yard kick return for a TD in the kickoff game on Thursday night. I didn’t think of him as much of a sleeper before he demonstrated how dynamic of a playmaker he is due to the resigning of James Jones and the lack of a retirement announcement from Donald Driver.  We can be sure that the Packers will be looking for ways to get the ball in Cobb’s hands now and he is worth a spot on your bench to see how he develops over the next few weeks.

Scott Chandler, TE, BUF – I’ve gotten a few questions about Chandler already as a Buffalonian.  People have expected me to have inside info about this guy but honestly, I don’t have much.  He had, I believe, just one career reception before this 5 catch 63 yard performance in which he also caught two TD passes. The TE position is pretty wide open and since there are only 4 or 5 of them who I am comfortable starting on a week-to-week basis, I think Chandler is a risky pickup and start this week.  The reason im willing to do it after just one good game is because of the match-up against Oakland being decent.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Kevin Walter hurt his collar bone in week 1 and I believe he will miss some extended time early in this season.  With Jones at number two on the Texan’s depth chart, I think he is going to see enough targets that he will be worth a shot in deeper leagues and as an injury/bye week fill-in.

Cadillac Williams, RB, STL – If your draft didn’t pan out at the RB position, Williams may make a good fill-in next week as Steven Jackson appears to be unlikely to play in week 2 against Carolina. He has no value when Jackson is active though in my opinion, so don’t think of it as an long-term solution.

Robert Meachem, WR, NO – I don’t like Saints receivers for fantasy purposes. A lot of people think the Colston injury is going to open up room for either Meachem or Henderson, but the absence of Lance Moore is the most intriguing absence to me. Colston was best utilized as a goal line target and none of these receivers can fill that void in my opinion, so that work will go to Jimmy Graham. Meachem will benefit from increased targets in the short to intermediate passing game where both Colston and Moore were used.   I think when Moore is back, Meachem and Henderson are very probably not going to be at all reliable enough to start again.  Until then, don’t leave them on free agency for an opponent to use.

Fred Davis, TE, WAS – Rex Grossman impressed a lot of people this weekend.  He looked like an effective leader of the offense and led his team to a win against their division rival New York Giants. I don’t think Davis is as good a pick up as Chandler, but if you had Cooley and there isn’t much talent on waivers, I would probably grab Davis.

Dump List

Peyton Manning, QB, IND – This one is fairly obvious but I don’t believe in over reacting to a poor week 1 and dropping someone because of one bad or mediocre performance so I have to have SOMETHING for this list. If you don’t have an IR spot and aren’t in a keeper league, there is no reason to hold Manning any longer. He will not likely see the field this season unless the Colts are somehow still in the playoff hunt late.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – Dexter McCluster seemed to be the secondary back in week 1 for the Chiefs as Jones only saw two carries throughout the game.  His age made him a late round pick in drafts and I’m convinced that it is now the Jamaal Charles show in KC.

James Jones, WR, GB – Jones was, I thought, no lower than 4th on the depth chart at receiver for the Packers.  This made him an ownable player to sit on your bench but with the emergence of Randall Cobb in week 1, I see no reason to hold Jones any longer.

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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