Falcons at Saints

Monday Night Football promises to be a great game and it has quite an impact on the NFC playoff picture. The Saints are looking to wrap up the division title at home against the Falcons this week and Atlanta is hoping to cling to clinch a playoff spot with a win.  Atlanta will need to lean heavily on Michael Turner in an effort to keep Drew Brees on the sidelines.  Brees has been the MVP of the second half of the season and the offense as a whole is playing as well as it has since their Super Bowl season. Darren Sproles is the only Saints runner worth the risk this week against a stout Falcons rush defense ranked 4th in the league. The New Orleans defense is not scary enough to downgrade any Atlanta offensive players but Julio Jones is always a risk to have a weak game despite his spot in my rankings at 16. Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham are both must-starts and should see an increase in targets with the running game struggles.  I like the Saints to win this game on the arm of Drew Brees with home field advantage, they have been too good lately to expect a sudden collapse.

Chargers at Lions

The situation is slightly different for each team here but each will be desperate for a win.  If Detroit wins they are in the playoffs and if San Diego loses they are out.  For some reason San Diego always seems to live up to their expectations at the end of the year but it is usually a matter of whether or not they can dig out of the hole they dug for themselves earlier in the year. They dug a deep hole this time but two more wins just might dig them out of it. They are one game back from both the division lead, which Denver is currently trying to hold on to, and the second wild card spot. Detroit can lock-in a wild card spot with a win as they are 2 games ahead of a sea of 7-7′s who are all hoping to squeak their way into the post season. Ryan Mathews remains a quality start for fantasy owners this week with Detroit allowing over 130 yards per game on the ground.  San Diego is ranked 6th in the league and could decide that two people are a must on Calvin Johnson every play, which would turn Titus Young into a nice flex option.  I like Detroit to win this game but they will have to find a way to exploit the Charger defense and if Calvin Johnson does draw double teams, he needs to beat them anyways.

Giants at Jets

The Jets are officially listed as the home team in this game but it  won’t affect anything but the coin toss.  I am very interested to see how the Jets deploy Revis between Nicks and Cruz. We can be sure that the majority of the snaps will be for Nicks, who has been on a bit of a hot streak over the past three weeks.  The gap between the two receivers is as small as it’s been in a while with Cromartie the more likely corner back to be exploited. The Giants have generally been a let down recently and I think it all starts on defense.  They have had a lot of trouble stopping the run and hundred yard rushers are common.  Shonn Greene is a must start this week as he looks to continue his own hot streak.  Greene will be the story of this game and I think the Jets pull out the win.

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Love

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – Pittsburgh has had issues on the offensive line this season and Mendenhall’s stats have suffered as well as Roethlisberger’s health.  Ben is not even close to 100% and the match up is especially soft for Mendenhall and the running game.  It has been a while since you’ve been able to use him as an RB1 but he snuck into my top 10 this week and has to be in your lineup this week.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – The rookie battle between Patrick Peterson and Green might be spoiled by an injury as Green is currently listed as questionable for this week but he is tough and should they start him, you have to as well.  The deck was stacked against Green this season with a fellow rookie QB and shortened off-season but he has been unbelievable and the match up isn’t really that scary as Peterson has gotten beat often enough.

Tim Tebow, QB, DEN – The Bills defense gives up a lot of yardage on the ground and with the number of carries Tebow gets, he is among the safest options at QB this week. I wouldn’t even be too surprised if he got up over 100 if the game gets out of hand, which isn’t too likely.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ  - The Jets are currently clinging to a playoff spot tied at an 8-6 record with Cincinnati and playing against the Giants, who have been weak to the ground game this season. Greene is also playing the best football of his career and the offense plays much better when the ground game is effective.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Thomas has clearly over-taken Decker as Tebow’s top receiving threat and going on the road to Buffalo means that there will be a a fair amount of yardage to be gained for the Bronco offense.  The run game will be the focus but that means that with 8 men in the box, you can’t double cover Thomas very often.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – Williams has scored in 2 straight weeks and with Tampa Bay being the 3rd worst rush defense in the NFL, the chances are better than ever that Williams AND Stewart are able to put together another nice game.  Don’t overreact too much though, you have to the play the guys that got you to the playoffs and he certainly wasn’t very helpful this year. But, you could consider him in your flex if you’ve had an injury over the past couple weeks.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – Darrelle Revis will be locked on Hakeem Nicks, who has been the top threat over the past few weeks by far. Cruz will be the more targeted of the two and is more likely to have a big game in what can barely be considered a home game for the Jets.

Hate

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – Joe Haden has been shutting down elite receivers all season and Boldin has been on the slide recently too. Boldin might pull in a TD but he has so little upside, I think you could sit him down easily this week.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – I know what you are thinking, he has been really consistent over the past few weeks but look at it this way.  The 49ers are the top rush defense in the NFL and have allowed 259 yards fewer than the Ravens, who are in 2nd. Last week, Lynch faced the 8th best rush defense and only managed 40 yards. He did have 2 TDs in that game but the 9ers have yet to allow a single TD on the ground all season.  He’s improved a lot recently but the deck is stacked against him this week. Flex play at best.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – Johnson has been battling a groin injury all season long and just as it seemed to be behind him, he re-aggravates it.  On top of that, Champ Bailey comes to town and is one of the most under-rated shut down corners in the league. Another flex play.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Romo is usually a no brainer to get the start but this week he falls outside my top 10 against an Eagles secondary that has been much improved over the past couple weeks.  The Cowboys will find that they are more effective on the ground.  Romo will do OK, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for 30 points.

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Part 4: The Playoffs

The key to success in the playoffs is preparation and conservative decision making.  In the previous part to this series I discussed “handcuffs” and how they are crucial to playoff success.  This is true because of inevitability and unpredictable nature of injuries.  Of course certain players are injury prone and should be devalued for that reason, but like everything else in football… anything can happen (or not happen for that matter). This is especially true come the end of the season when players start to wear down physically.

In order to know how many teams make the playoffs in your league, you will need to see your league’s commissioner at the beginning of the season. The playoffs are typically taking place in the last 2, 3, or 4 weeks of the NFL regular season.  In most leagues the last week of the regular season (week 17) is not used for the super bowl, week 16 is.  This is done to ensure that nobody loses their fantasy league super bowl because a feature player on a team that has already clinched a playoff birth is being sat by their NFL team. Peyton Manning owners can attest to this frustration as the Colts are notorious for resting players late in the year.

In leagues where 6 teams qualify for the playoffs, three weeks would be needed so the playoffs would take place in weeks 14, 15 and 16.  In this scenario the top two ranked teams would have a bye in week 14.  Pairings are typically handled just like the NFL playoffs, with the top ranked team playing the lowest ranked team and so on down the line.

For all my playoff decisions, I try to imagine how I would feel a month after if I made the wrong decision.  It is impossible to make the right choice all the time, thats the beauty of this game, anyone can lose any given week.  I just try and make sure I won’t hate myself for making the wrong decision, should it backfire.  For example, you are a Peyton Manning owner and it is week 16.  The Colts cannot improve their playoff standing at all over the next two games and declare that they plan to only use their starters for the first half of the game.  You now need to make a decision about whether half a game from the best QB in the league is better than a full game from your backup ranked 17th on my player rankings.  My general thought is that Manning is likely to get two TDs anyways and far less likely to throw multiple interceptions.  It might cost you a few points in yardage, but by playing it safe you give your team the best chance to win.  Also, you won’t often be upset with yourself for trusting Peyton in the Super Bowl… win or lose.

Thats all the advice I have for you, please keep an eye open for upcoming eBooks, blog posts and as always, I answer every last question that I have time to… so don’t be shy.

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Saints at Falcons

This week’s Monday night game has been circled as the game of the season on my calendar since shortly after the Falcons went on the road to the Superdome to beat the Saints in week 3.  Going into this season many people (including myself) expected the Falcons to be a playoff team, but few expected them to be the class of the NFC.  Their dominance in front of their home crowd has been incredible and if they can manage one last home-win against the defending super bowl champion, the Falcons will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This would make them the heavy favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.

The Saints are playing for their last chance to reclaim the division title, but in order to do this the Falcons would need to lose both this week and in week 17 at home against the 2-12 Panthers.  After watching the Falcons defeat the Packers at home a few weeks ago, I am a firm believer in their ability to beat ANYONE inside the Georgia Dome and I expect them to earn a narrow victory this week.  There is one thing that I am 100% positive of, this will be a great game and a must-see for every football fan.  Neither team has a stellar defense and all fantasy-relevant players are must-starts for this potential shoot out.  Matt Ryan, because he is playing at home, found his way into my top 10 QBs this week and considering my playoff philosophy of down grading the impact of match-ups and playing the more trusted and safe option… this is a big show of my confidence in him.

Jets at Bears

The Jets were a team in disarray, their offense was inept and there seemed to be a lack of play makers to step up and lead by example on the field.  Last week, Mark Sanchez led the Jets to a confidence-building win over AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  The health of Sanchez is in question and it is looking as though he will be a game time decision, but for me it does not affect anyone’s fantasy value.  I do not trust Braylon Edwards in the playoffs against such a quality defense and Santonio Holmes remains the only Jet who I feel is worth a start in standard leagues.  Earlier in the season LaDainian Tomlinson WAS the difference maker for this offense, but due to his age he has slowed down and considering he has not scored a rushing TD since week 6, it is apparent that he is unable to fulfill this role any longer.  Now, in order to be the Super Bowl contender they were hoping to be earlier this year, they will need to look to their younger talent.

The Bears are division champions in their first year with offensive coordinator Mike Martz and their defense has quietly been one the best in the league.  They face another of the league’s best defenses and have a QB known for his poor decision making abilities.  The only Chicago player worth starting for fantasy-owners is Matt Forte but as I said in my Hate list yesterday, you should not expect a big game from him.  I think the Bears win this defensive battle, because they are a more balanced team and have bigger individual play makers on defense.  Julius Peppers is who I believe makes the difference in this game as he has done all season long for the Bears.

Colts at Raiders

All is right with the world, the Colts are back on top of their division.  They will need to finish the remainder of the season without Austin Collie due to his third head injury of the season and they will be a lesser offense because of it.  Joseph Addai is finally back to full participation in practice and appears to be a sure thing to start against a weak Raiders run defense.  He has missed enough time that I do not expect him to be featured as the lead back quite yet, but he will likely split carries with Donald Brown and make both of them too risky to start for fantasy-owners.  Reggie Wayne remains a top 10 WR this week despite facing Nnamdi Asomugha who, unlike Darelle Revis, does not typically shadow the opponent’s top receiver for the entire game.

The Raiders have been a surprising team this season.  Despite a mid-season QB controversy, the Raiders have found their way to 7-7 with a 5-0 record against divisional opponents. Because of this division record, they are heavily favored in tie-breakers and should find their way into the post season if they win these last two games.  They match up well against the Colts with their strong running game led by Darren McFadden, who is having a breakout, Pro Bowl caliber season.  Recently they have been trying to find ways to get the ball in the hands of Jacoby Ford, who has been a dynamic play maker in a variety of ways on both offense and special teams.  Being the playoffs however, Run DMC (McFadden) is the only player worth the risk in this game which I believe the Colts will win by a VERY narrow margin.

Giants at Packers

The Packers narrowly missed upsetting the New England Patriots last week with backup QB Matt Flynn in command of their offense.  Aaron Rodgers should be ready to go this week after his concussion that he suffered in week 14.  He faces one of the league’s best pass rushes, but this is one of the best passing attacks in the league and we can expect big statistical performances from both Rodgers and his top receiver, Greg Jennings. Green Bay has been hindered this season by their lack of a running game, but have been able to remain consistent for fantasy-owners despite this short-coming.  I do like the Packers to win this game, but I fear for their ability to succeed in the playoffs without a more balanced offense.

Last week the Giants suffered a demoralizing loss at the hands of Michael Vick and the Eagles.  This week they will have trouble against one of the best and most explosive offenses the NFC has to offer this week against the Packers.  Eli Manning has had a lot of issues with turnovers this season and his ability to minimize them in this game will be the deciding factor.  The Giants success lies in the hands of their running game, with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs sharing the load.  They were not able to close-out the win last week and I expect the turnover problems to persist after the emotionally unsettling loss last week.  Because of that, I believe the Giants will lose this game, but it will be a close and well fought game!

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