Love

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is averaging 20 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks against pretty good match-ups.  Speaking of good match-ups… The Broncos play against the Browns and the Chiefs to close out the season.  Cleveland this week and considering Joe Haden can actually cause some problems for opponents, I look for Denver to give the Browns a heavy helping of the run game.  He has a pretty good chance for 100 yards and a score here but he is only listed as an RB2 in my rankings because we haven’t seen enough tape for me to be too confident yet.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots aren’t playing for a whole lot this week but come on… Brady vs the Jags? That’s a pretty great match-up for your Super Bowl week!  Welker is going to be free to roam around the line of scrimmage all game and Brady is going to use him to pick the defense apart.  I like Lloyd a lot too as a really good flex option but Welker is a must-start in almost any imaginable circumstance.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – I hate to say it but for fantasy purposes, Romo has actually been decent.  If you were able to get two serviceable Quarterbacks and did a good job of deciding which to play, you could easily be in the Super Bowl right now.  If Romo is one of those guys, he is your choice this weekend against a soft Saints defense.  Hopefully Dez Bryant isn’t affected as severely by his finger injury but he was still a quality play for fantasy owners even with visible signs of pain.  The Cowboys are also benefiting from the work of DeMarco Murray once again and Romo is most effective in the play-action passing situations.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Morris is a beast.  Last week, with Kirk Cousins at QB and the defense knowing that he was going to be a huge factor, he still got it done with 20 fantasy points.  RG3 is going to play this week and Philly, who is already weak to the run, will not even be able to bring an 8th man into the box very often.  Bottom line is that, in the Playoffs, you NEED consistency at every position and Morris is as close to a sure-thing as it gets for 100 yards rushing for players not named Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – James Jones may lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns but he isn’t even close to the lead in targets or receptions on his own team.  Scores are fluky and not easy to do with consistency.  Cobb is a FAR safer option this week and Jones is more of a flex-option.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – There can’t be many of you left in the Super Bowl if you own this guy but maybe you capitalized on Alfred Morris and didn’t use CJ much until late in the season.  Either way, if you’ve got him, you may have to start him but try not to.  His value is almost entirely in the one big play he has been getting more often than not.  If he doesn’t get that play, he won’t have more than 5 points and you can’t take that chance.  Not with as bad as his o-line is, especially.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – It’s a shame that the team is in disarray right now because this should be a really nice match-up.  Now it’s a complete crap-shoot because given how poor the entire team played last week, Coughlin could potentially do anything with his running backs this week.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Steer clear of Freeman this week against the Rams.  They are no slouch on defense and after the entire team imploded last week, if your still alive, you wan’t to stay away from them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have no choice but to play him in a Super Bowl match-up this week and I am really nervous about it.  Like I just said, this team is a mess and while they have a really good chance of rebounding VERY strong and blowing up the scoreboard, it’s a gamble and as I’ve said a thousand times so far this post-season… this is not the time for a gamble.

Anotonio Brown, WR, PIT – I loved seeing him rebound last week too but you CAN NOT forget how bad he was for the entire rest of the season, before his injury.  WAY too risky.

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Colin Kaepernick had a bad game in Week 13 against the Rams.

He had a solid completion percentage of roughly 60%.

He only threw for 200 yards and an interception.

Kaepernick had 14 fantasy points in week 13.

The safety that comes from his running ability makes Colin Kaepernick a top 10 fantasy QB.

Since the turn of the millennium, just one running back has followed up a season-ending ACL tear with a 1,000 yard season.

There are two running backs that are over 1,000 yards rushing on the season that finished last year with an ACL tear, Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles.

Jamaal Charles suffered his injury in week 2 and was expected to make a strong return because of that.

Adrian Peterson suffered his injury and the fact that he was playing at such a high level, immediately, is nothing short of a medical marvel.

Peterson is the NFL’s leading rusher by a margin of 308 yards and is the NFL’s top scoring fantasy RB.

Bryce Brown is averaging 173.5 yards per game and two TDs.

LeSean McCoy has not had more than 150 yards rushing at all this season.

McCoy has just two rushing TDs on the season.

Bryce Brown is a gifted athlete with a very bright future in this league.

If LeSean McCoy returns from injury and is 100% this week, I expect Brown to get roughly half the carries.

Everyone knows how well Doug Martin has run the ball this season, with 1100 yards and 9 rushing TDs.

Not many people have noticed his pass catching ability.

Martin has been targeted 47 times and has amassed 374 receiving yards plus one receiving TD.

Doug Martin is a complete, three down back that will be a very highly ranked RB going into next season, especially in PPR leagues.

Randall Cobb is a top 15 WR in most fantasy analysts’ rankings.

Jordy Nelson has re-injured himself so even though Greg Jennings has returned, Cobb will see the field plenty.

James Jones will start along with Jennings for the Packers in 2 WR sets.

Randall Cobb has fewer receiving yards than any other top 20 WR on the season with 675.

Cobb also has the lowest number of targets (84) among top 20 WRs on the season.

Randall Cobb is not to be considered a top 20 wide receiver during the fantasy playoffs.

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Antonio Brown has been outscored on the season by Mike Williams, Brian Hartline, Jeremy Kerley, Michael Crabtree, Cecil Shorts, Santana Moss, Anquan Boldin and Golden Tate.

Antonio Brown will not crack my top 30 again without a couple of good games in a row.

Doug Martin did not have a 100 yard rushing performance before week 8.

Martin is 186 yards off of the NFL’s rushing leader, Adrian Peterson.

Martin is 3 TDs off of the NFL’s leader in rushing scores, Arian Foster.

Doug Martin is the highest scoring running back, for fantasy purposes, in the National Football League.

Brandon Marshall has five games with a TD.

Only one of these games did NOT also come with 100 yards receiving.

Marshall only has one BAD game this season. (2 points in week 2).

Andre Brown has not rushed more than 7 times in a game since week 3.

Brown has not amassed more than 21 yards in a game in the same time frame.

He has one TD per game for three consecutive games.

All three TDs were goal line carries.

Demaryius Thomas is widely considered to be a top 10 Wide Receiver.

Eric Decker is, generally, not ranked inside the top 20 among Wide Receivers.

Eric Decker has outscored Demaryius Thomas by 6 points on the season.

Both Randall Cobb and James Jones are top 10 fantasy wide receivers.

They have just one 100 yard receiving game between the pair of them.

 

 

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Pickups

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – The though of drafting Newton was absurd to me a week ago, but after a rookie debut record 422 yards and two TDs, he MUST be owned.  I won’t pretend like I thought there was a chance that Newton would blow up at any point this season, but regardless of who your starting QB is, your backup spot is about upside. Newton has the potential to be a HUGE surprise as a top10 QB on the season and with bye weeks a bit away, feel free to drop your backup on the off-chance you get to trade Newton away for a starting WR or RB.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – This rookie receiver for the Packers tied an NFL record for longest play with is 108 yard kick return for a TD in the kickoff game on Thursday night. I didn’t think of him as much of a sleeper before he demonstrated how dynamic of a playmaker he is due to the resigning of James Jones and the lack of a retirement announcement from Donald Driver.  We can be sure that the Packers will be looking for ways to get the ball in Cobb’s hands now and he is worth a spot on your bench to see how he develops over the next few weeks.

Scott Chandler, TE, BUF – I’ve gotten a few questions about Chandler already as a Buffalonian.  People have expected me to have inside info about this guy but honestly, I don’t have much.  He had, I believe, just one career reception before this 5 catch 63 yard performance in which he also caught two TD passes. The TE position is pretty wide open and since there are only 4 or 5 of them who I am comfortable starting on a week-to-week basis, I think Chandler is a risky pickup and start this week.  The reason im willing to do it after just one good game is because of the match-up against Oakland being decent.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Kevin Walter hurt his collar bone in week 1 and I believe he will miss some extended time early in this season.  With Jones at number two on the Texan’s depth chart, I think he is going to see enough targets that he will be worth a shot in deeper leagues and as an injury/bye week fill-in.

Cadillac Williams, RB, STL – If your draft didn’t pan out at the RB position, Williams may make a good fill-in next week as Steven Jackson appears to be unlikely to play in week 2 against Carolina. He has no value when Jackson is active though in my opinion, so don’t think of it as an long-term solution.

Robert Meachem, WR, NO – I don’t like Saints receivers for fantasy purposes. A lot of people think the Colston injury is going to open up room for either Meachem or Henderson, but the absence of Lance Moore is the most intriguing absence to me. Colston was best utilized as a goal line target and none of these receivers can fill that void in my opinion, so that work will go to Jimmy Graham. Meachem will benefit from increased targets in the short to intermediate passing game where both Colston and Moore were used.   I think when Moore is back, Meachem and Henderson are very probably not going to be at all reliable enough to start again.  Until then, don’t leave them on free agency for an opponent to use.

Fred Davis, TE, WAS – Rex Grossman impressed a lot of people this weekend.  He looked like an effective leader of the offense and led his team to a win against their division rival New York Giants. I don’t think Davis is as good a pick up as Chandler, but if you had Cooley and there isn’t much talent on waivers, I would probably grab Davis.

Dump List

Peyton Manning, QB, IND – This one is fairly obvious but I don’t believe in over reacting to a poor week 1 and dropping someone because of one bad or mediocre performance so I have to have SOMETHING for this list. If you don’t have an IR spot and aren’t in a keeper league, there is no reason to hold Manning any longer. He will not likely see the field this season unless the Colts are somehow still in the playoff hunt late.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – Dexter McCluster seemed to be the secondary back in week 1 for the Chiefs as Jones only saw two carries throughout the game.  His age made him a late round pick in drafts and I’m convinced that it is now the Jamaal Charles show in KC.

James Jones, WR, GB – Jones was, I thought, no lower than 4th on the depth chart at receiver for the Packers.  This made him an ownable player to sit on your bench but with the emergence of Randall Cobb in week 1, I see no reason to hold Jones any longer.

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Chicago Bears

The Bears were the surprise NFC North Champions last season, even with the Super Bowl Champions in their division.  They played exceptionally on defense and even found a balance between the rushing and passing attacks on offense during last regular season.  Unfortunately for Bears fans, they were not able to overcome their mediocre at best offensive line in the playoffs, but this made it clear where their first pick should go.  With the 29^th overall pick, the Bears took Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin to anchor their line for years to come. Carimi is a prototypical right tackle, but might spend a little time playing at guard on this line next season unless the Bears go after any interior lineman in free agency. I also think that he would do well on the left side after he develops as an NFL athlete, but ideally there will be another tackle added to the roster next year that can play the left side.  In round two with the 53^rd overall pick, Chicago selected Stephen Paea who set the Scouting Combine record on the bench press. He is a bit of a developmental prospect with raw athleticism, but he will excel as a one gap run stopper in the middle of the defensive line in the future. His incredible strength will translate to this role in the Bears’ defense that loves to blitz up the middle.  Paea will eat up at least two blockers and should allow pressure by the linebackers through the middle. In round three, the Bears took DB Chris Conte from California.  Conte is an incredibly versatile defensive back that filled in at just about every spot during his time in college before transitioning to safety in his final season.  He will make an immediate impact on special teams and with the veterans on defense to help him develop, he will find a spot somewhere in the starting lineup before too long. I would have liked to see the Bears take an interior offensive lineman that would allow Carimi to play at right tackle, but Paea will be an impact player and clearly the Bears were confident in his abilities. Also, they opted not to take a playmaker at WR. I am not jumping for joy at this draft, but I think they should be running the ball more anyways and there is plenty of free agent talent available at receiver, so all hope is not lost.

My Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

Many people are very big on this year’s draft for the Lions, but I am not one of them.  They added some great players to their team, but ignored their biggest need in the secondary. Prince Amukamara fell past Houston and seemed to be a lock for Detroit who continues to lose games because they cannot contain the big play.  I will admit that I had Fairley higher on my draft board than Prince, but it was because of how well Fairley fits into Tennessee’s defensive scheme and how big of a reach it was for them to take Locker 8th overall. Fairley along with Suh at DT will give the Lions a VERY stout run defense and will obviously make the pass rush more effective, but this is not enough for a secondary that was average at best last season statistically. There were two picks in the second round for Detroit and both were spent on offensive skill positions.  First the Lions selected Titus Young from Boise State.  Young is just 5’1’’ 174 lbs, but he has the speed to be a very impactful deep threat as well as return man.  He is so fast he makes it very difficult for teams to not provide safety help to the corner that is covering him and with Calvin Johnson on the other side of the field, one of these guys will be in man-coverage more often that opposing defenses would like. The second pick in round two for the Lions was spent on Mikel Leshoure who is much better between the tackles than Jahvid Best, who is almost certain to serve as a 3^rd down / change of pace back from here on out.  Passing on Amukamara was a mistake, but they made considerable improvements to their team and stayed true to their draft board.  They won’t get an A from me, but I don’t hate their choices.

My Grade: B+

Green Bay Packers

The Super Bowl Champion Packers had needs on both sides of the line as well as WR and DB.  They were able to address these concerns for the most part in this draft, by selecting someone at each of these positions in the first four rounds with defensive lineman being the only exception.  In the first round, they took Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State. This isn’t a pick that is going to excite too many fans, but he has the versatility to play anywhere on the line, but would ideally be a great RT of the future for the Packers opposite Chad Clifton. In round two the Packers took Randall Cobb from Kentucky, who is a speedy playmaker that could fill in for James Jones, who is looking to enter free agency after his fourth season.  In round three the Packers made what was, to me, a puzzling selection with RB Alex Green from Hawaii.  Green is a big, punishing runner with great hands out of the backfield. To me, the Packers are a passing team with Ryan Grant at RB and James Starks as a change of pace back.  If I was coaching the Packers, Green would just be a goal line back at best… but don’t be surprised if he has a much larger role than this starting in his rookie season. I am not sure how much better they got with this draft, but they filled gaps that will be opened by departing free agents and added depth along both offensive and defensive line.  And after all, they were Super Bowl Champions last year, so they will certainly still be able compete for a chance to repeat next season.

My Grade: B

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings only had two selections in the first three rounds this season and with their first round pick, they made the second most questionable selection in this year’s draft by taking Christian Ponder 12^th overall.  Ponder has a lot of the intangibles that you want to see in a franchise QB and came from a pro-style offense.  It will take the Vikes a little time to adjust their personnel and playbook to suit the quick timing attack that suits Ponder’s strengths, but with great risk comes great reward… so only time will tell how good this pick was. He might be in over his head if he has to start week 1, especially considering the lockout, but there is certainly a nice running back at his disposal to help him move the ball down the field.  In round two the Vikes took the draft’s top Tight End, Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame.  Rudolph is likely to assume a primarily blocking role and for good reason, he might as well be a tackle… judging by the size of him.  I would have thought the Vikes would look to add a possession receiver or grab an impact player on defense with this pick, but having a TE tandem like Rudolph and Shiancoe can provide one hell of a crutch for a young QB.  Minnesota’s saving grace was that they were able to address areas where they lacked depth with their 6 picks in rounds 6 and 7.  With reaching for Ponder AND ignoring positions of need to take Kyle Rudolph, I can’t grade Minnesota well, but if Ponder becomes a successful NFL QB, I’ll be happy to have been wrong!

My Grade: C

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So I want to start with two quick digressions.  The first is a quick apology for my lack of posts so far this off season, I was finishing my college degree and now that that has been accomplished and I will be posting regularly again.  The second is that I am not an NFL draft analyst and do not even play one on TV, so these are just my quick observations about what I saw when watching the offensive players workouts.   Feel free to leave a comment or find me on twitter for my opinion on the defensive workouts.

Quarterbacks

I was very excited to see this combine because of the skill and athleticism of the QB class with Blaine Gabbert being the only one to not throw in the positional drills. After the drills were completed, I was left wanting more because almost all of the QB’s seemed to struggle with their accuracy and consistency.  After re-watching the workouts I realized that a fair amount of this is not the fault of the QBs themselves. When throwing at the scouting combine, the QBs are told to throw to a spot… NOT to complete the pass. This is a difficult thing for players to do because it goes against what they have done their entire lives.  Also, the receivers make the QBs look bad.  In a few drills, the receivers were running bad routes and this is what I believe led a lot of people to heavily criticize Cam Newton’s throwing performance.

Speaking of Cam, as I am a native Buffalonian and most of the mock drafts released have placed Newton with the Bills at the third pick, I paid close attention to what Cam was able to accomplish this past week.  The first thing that stood out to me was that he beat Tim Tebow’s broad jump and 40 yard dash times from last year.  Cam posted a 4.58 forty yard dash to go with his 10’6” broad jump and really demonstrated his explosiveness and acceleration off the line.  Also, in his 3-cone drill, he covered 5 yards in just two steps which further demonstrates his explosiveness when he decides to run.  For the reasons discussed above, I do not discredit Cam due to his inaccurate throws, because the 2 or so truly errant balls were balanced by the touch and placement he showed me on some of his deep throws.  I have not made up my mind whether I want him leading my team or if I think he can be successful at the pro level, but that should become clear in his fast approaching pro day.

Jake Locker quietly had an outstanding day as many of his measurables actually matched up very well against Cam who was thought to be the most physically gifted of the class.  Ricky Stanzi was the biggest winner of all the QBs at the combine however, because of his incredible performance throwing the ball in the on-field drills.  He seemed to be by far the most prepared and the only one that was actually throwing to a spot as he was instructed.  On the 10 yard out routes, he released the ball when his back foot planted and did not wait for the receiver to make his break.  He did what the scouts wanted to see, delivered an accurate ball on a timing route to a spot where it would not be intercepted.  Most all of his passes fell incomplete, but again that is not his fault and his new team will be able to find receivers that can get to where they are supposed to be.  Stanzi has plenty of inconsistencies in his game, but he looks like a pro QB and if he can spend a few years behind the right tutor… we should see this guy as a starter in the NFL.

Wide Receivers

The breakout player of the receiving corp is a no brainer and I suspect you have already heard plenty about his day in Indianapolis. Julio Jones had an absurd day.  WITH a broken foot, Julio had an 11’3” broad jump and 4.39 forty yard dash.  These numbers were not expected from a healthy Jones and while he did not pass AJ Green on many people’s draft boards because of a good shorts and t-shirt work out, he did ensure that he will be a top 15 pick and personally I think he will go to St Louis with the 14th pick at the latest.  Other very real possibilities before the 14th selection are Cleveland or Washington if Green does not fall to them as both are in dire need of a top receiver.

Jonathan Baldwin from Pittsburgh is a big and physical receiver who was not expected to run exceptionally fast, but with a 4.5 forty yard dash he showed that he has the ability to separate from defensive backs as well as out jump them.  He will develop into an NFL caliber player and he reminds me a lot of Hakeem Nicks.  Another guy who improved his stock this past week was Randall Cobb.  While watching the workouts I heard the comparison to Brad Smith and while I wouldn’t go that far… I will say that he is a very versatile player and will certainly be used by a creative offensive coordinator somewhere.  Honestly, I think he compares better with Joshua Cribbs, who never really turned into a quality wide-out… but is one hell of a kick returner.

Running Back

Apart from Mark Ingram, this year’s running back class is pretty shallow.  Ingram did nothing to hurt his draft status in my eyes at the combine, but I was a little disappointed with his forty yard dash time.  He more than made up for his average time with an incredibly fast 10 yard split and he also displayed an aggression in his running style that solidify him as the only clear-cut first round running back.  Dion Lewis was the biggest winner among RBs as his acceleration and lateral burst were on display during on-field drills.  Another quick back that made a splash was Jacquizz Rodgers, who had a weak 40 yard dash time.  While each of these backs are unlikely to get taken in the first round, they will be a value deeper in the draft and able to make an impact for their new teams in the return game as well as being a change of pace runner.

There was one very interesting player that is not likely to be taken early at all but has a TON of upside, despite not being often talked about and that is Allen Bradford from USC.  Bradford was an after thought for the Trojan’s offense until the last game of his college career, when he saw 28 touches for 212 yards.  He is a big back at over 240 lbs, but actually ran a faster forty than Jacquizz at 4.56 seconds and lifted 225 lbs 28 times.  Look for a team to take a late-round flyer on him after the impact that LeGarrette Blount (another quick yet big RB) had as an undrafted rookie.

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