Jets at Bills

I am lucky enough to be going to this game and there might not be one that has a bigger impact on the playoff picture in week 9. Buffalo currently sits atop the AFC East and would have the #2 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today. Currently, the Jets are on the outside looking in on the playoff race and would have a really steep hill to climb if they lost this game. On offense, the Jets have gotten away from the ground and pound offense that has gotten them to two straight AFC championship games.  Buffalo’s defense has been incredibly opportunistic and currently leads the NFL with 14 interceptions. In order for Sanchez to get the win for his team and get back on track towards their Super Bowl aspirations, it will take a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and the run game. The Bills offense has been very explosive and it all starts with Fred Jackson, who is having an MVP caliber season. The Jets have been weak against the run and Jackson will pick them apart if they turn the ball over or get off to a slow start and force Sanchez to go to the air and play from behind. Unfortunately for Jets fans, that is how I see this game going.  Jackson just always seems to make the big play when it matters the most and the defense is constantly turning the ball over in crucial spots to help them put the game away. Steve Johnson is a flex play despite being on Revis island this week.  Fitzpatrick will look to him when he is in man coverage and should be able to put up OK stats in this game.  He hasn’t been great in recent weeks and I do not think that he will be able to do too much, but I just don’t think he can be benched. You can start all your normal Bills and Jets in this game, but I would avoid Sanchez as usual and expect this game to be largely about the running game.

Giants at Patriots

The Giants have a two game lead on their division and have been getting some incredible performances from both Bradshaw and Manning.  Bradshaw unfortunately is going to miss around a month of time and I am not sure Brandon Jacobs will be able to provide the same balanced offensive attack.  Luckily for them you do not need balance to attack the Patriots secondary, which is ranked dead last in the NFL and is allowing 323 yards per game. Hakeem Nicks is questionable going into this game and his presence would mean the difference in this game being either competitive or a blow out. If he plays it could go either way but without him, I do not know if they will be able to keep pace with Tom Brady. Brandon Jacobs gets a bump in value with Bradshaw out and you should play every Giants wide receiver that you own in this game.  Tom Brady is of course a must-start despite a pretty average performance last week and there are still no Patriots Wide Receivers that I would go out of my way to start.  I am expecting a Patriot victory in this game but if Nicks plays it will be a pretty close and high scoring affair.

Ravens at Steelers

My favorite part of the AFC North is that these two teams meet up twice a year.  There is always some great football to be had when defenses of this caliber meet up and these have been the best two defenses for at least a decade or two. This particular game could get out of hand as the Steelers are surging and the Ravens struggling, but nothing forces you to play your best like a divisional rivalry game that decides who will sit in first place. I would stay away from any flex plays from either team and just focus on your typical starters: Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace and Ben Roethlisberger.  Anquan Boldin is typically a very good WR2 option, but I think of him more as a poor flex play this week against this Steelers team that just shut down Brady.  I like Pittsburgh to get a tough win, but the Ravens defense has not been what has struggled as of late so I don’t see it being by any more than 10 points.

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Studs

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – What more can you say other than “WOW”. 25 carries for 115 yards and 2 TDs was not enough for Foster, he had to throw in 119 yards and a score in the receiving game.  Fantasy owners appreciated it and there isn’t too much to say here. Foster is an elite fantasy RB. When Andre Johnson is back, defenses will not be able to stack eight in the box to stop him.

Chiefs, D/ST, KC – The Raiders were a comedy of errors this week and only some of it was their fault.  They recognized that Palmer was not going to be effective on such short notice and tried not to use him.  But Boller was just awful and when Darren McFadden left the game, there was just no chance for success. I do not trust the Chiefs defense without a sweet match up at all the rest of the way, but this has me relatively confident in their ability to be serviceable against a bad offense.

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – This just feels like how Adrian Peterson burst onto the scene doesn’t it? Odds are that is not the case and he will just settle in as a decent RB2 but when talking about upside, this is the potential that exists with Murray. I am very confident that you have a new RB2 if you picked this guy up however. The Cowboys have been itching for an effective running game for some time and Felix Jones has not been getting it done.  If Murray can produce this weekend with a great match up against Philly, I think he will be the feature back even when Jones comes back.  To put this in historical perspective, there have been 9 players in NFL history to gain 250 yards rushing in a game and 8 of them have then had multiple 1,000 yard seasons in their career. Jerome Harrison is the odd man out.  Great pick up last week if you got him!

Marques Colston, WR, NO – Colston has been great since coming back off injury.  This game was a joke and the Saints were just scoring at will so I do not think that this can continue, but you have to start this guy every week.  Colston had 7 targets and 7 catches this week for 98 yards and two scores. I LOVE when a guy catches 100% of the passes that come his way and I have a feeling Drew Brees does too.

Tim Tebow, QB, DEN – My advice to pick up and start Tebow this week had nothing to do with a belief that he is a savior sent from the University of Florida to destroy the NFL and bring championships to the Broncos. Those people are insane.  It had to do with his style of play translating well to fantasy points.  There is a lot to be said about a QB that will have 50 yards rushing and essentially serves as the goal line back for his team (Cam Newton owners can also explain this to you).  Tebow played terribly for around 55 minutes in this game and still managed to be the 5th highest scoring QB of the week.

Plaxico Burress, WR, NYJ – I’m not going to justify this performance with any more than saying it was a fluke.  He only caught 4 passes for 25 yards. You can’t rely on even ONE TD from such few receptions and yardage, let alone THREE!

Duds

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – San Diego tried to get the ball to Jackson while he spent the day on Revis Island but they were unsuccessful. VJax saw eight targets and was only able to haul in one catch for 15 yards.  I have no concerns down the stretch, but I would have liked to see him be more productive considering that Matt Moore and Brandon Marshall were able to get it done last week against Revis.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – I am so shocked that Baltimore laid an egg on Monday night that I want to list every last start-able Raven here, but I wont. Teams coming off the Bye this year have done pretty badly thus far and I blame the new rules. Teams are barely allowed to practice and players can only show up to the facilities a couple of days on the week off.  I am not sure when this stopped being “professional” football players, but I won’t be expecting a good game from too many players coming off the bye week anymore.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I can’t believe it, but CJ has just been awful and is about to fall completely out of the top 20.  There is no bigger bust for 2011 and you should look to find a replacement.  Don’t drop him yet though unless there are NO other options and Murray is available.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – With Austin and Bryant competing for targets and DeMarco Murray running like a mad man, I am not surprised that Austin had a bad game.  I still like him more than Bryant, but one more week of such anemic stats and that will change.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – I am at a loss about Mendenhall’s spotty performance this season.  I do not think we can consider him a top 10 guy but Arizona is a decent rush defense and bad secondary, so I don’t think we can expect such a pass-heavy offense down the stretch. Especially with that poor offensive line.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – I thought Decker would be the top receiver for Denver, at least while Demaryius Thomas got back into the rhythm of things.  It apparently did not take long for that to happen.  Thomas will be my top ranked Broncos receiver for week 8.

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49ers at Eagles

Well clearly this week is light on the  really good match ups, since Alex Smith’s team is making it into my preview article.  But oddly enough the 9ers sit at 2-1, in first place of their division and the Eagles are currently at 1-2 in last place of theirs. The so-called dream-team has some work to do as they figure out how to work as a team and keep their QB from being battered bruised and broken before the bye week. The Eagles secondary is by far the most talented group in the NFL and yet Eli Manning picked them apart last week and their line-backing corp is a legitimate weak spot that makes them vulnerable to the run.  The 49ers offense however has looked sluggish and down right bad so far despite the winning record.  Their biggest threat, Frank Gore, has been a HUGE disappointment for fantasy owners and even last week the backup Kendall Hunter seemed faster into the holes and seemed to be able to find better creases in the defense.  The only chance the 9ers have to steal a win on the road this week is for Gore to step it up and be the player he has been for the past few years.  If he is able to keep drives alive and be an effective runner, then the 49ers will have a shot.  Their front seven is going to be able to reach Vick plenty in this game as the Eagles have yet to figure out their offensive line issues.   Vick is coming off a concussion and what they thought was a broken non-throwing hand which turned out to be a bruise and if the pressure is getting to him and the 49ers can get a running game clicking, this could become a very close game.  I wouldn’t start any 49ers apart from Vernon Davis and Frank Gore (only out of sheer necessity as he continues to plummet in my ranks with each terrible performance). And you can feel comfortable starting all your Eagles play makers, even if Vick is for some reason not in the lineup they would be OK in this match up. I think the Eagles will prove to be too tough for the 49ers and if Gore continues this slump, it could get ugly.

Lions at Cowboys

Detroit finally appears to have things turned around as they have been an explosive offense over the first three games and are still undefeated as they head down to play the Cowboys in Dallas. If both teams were healthy I would probably take the Cowboys at home but with just one quality receiver to cover, I think the Lions’ offense will lead them to a shocking 4-0 start in what may turn into a shoot out. Tony Romo won’t be as banged up this week as he was in week 3 and I think he is able to connect with Witten and Bryant quite a bit. You will want to start all of your fantasy players in this game as I don’t think either secondary matches up well against the quality of the passing attacks in this game.  Jahvid Best’s value will continue to depend on his receiving ability and the big play and he remains, in my eyes, the best flex play available. Calvin Johnson and his two TDs in every single game has become the top fantasy WR in the NFL and Matthew Stafford even cracked my top 5 at QB. Look for the Lions to win a nail biter here and for everyone to have a good statistical performance in a high scoring game.

Jets at Ravens

I do not like this match up for the Jets. This new look, pass-first, Jets offense is not as impressive to me as the ground and pound attack that has taken them to two consecutive AFC championship games.  This should be a close game, but I definitely think that the Ravens are able to force turnovers and keep Sanchez in check throughout this game.  I am looking for the Ravens to use Ray Rice to expose the weakness of the Jets Defense… stopping the run. I would not expect to see a big game from ANY receivers or QBs in this game and would look to find a serviceable replacement for both Sanchez and Flacco if you’ve been using them thus far. Santonio Holmes is the one guy that is probably worth a flex start as he is just the one that is most likely to pull off a big play. I think these teams are definitely both playoff teams, but this could get ugly for the Jets.  Sit everyone not named Ray Rice and brace yourselves for a one-sided Ravens victory, Jets fans.

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Love

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The Falcons are on the road and have not been playing that great so far this season.  They have gotten down early and this has minimized Turner’s impact on each of the first three games.  Do you think Seattle’s offense can get off to a blazing start and keep the Falcons passing the entire game? I don’t.  I don’t like the Seahawks’ rush defense and I think Turner might be in a for a really big game. Double digit points should be just about guaranteed.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – The Lions’ offense would be the biggest talk of the NFL if it wasn’t for the Bills and this week Stafford has a great match up against a weak Cowboys secondary. The Cowboys offense is banged up and could have troubles sustaining drives against the Lion’s VASTLY improved defensive unit. This will lead to a lot opportunities for Stafford and with Megatron pulling down 2 TD passes per game, there is no reason to not ride out the wave.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – The Giants face off against the Cardinals, who I think might have the worst pass defense in the NFL this season.  The currently are ranked 25th and have faced Carolina, Seattle and Washington.  None of these teams have top-end passing attacks and the Giants are coming off of a big game through the air against the most talented secondary in the league.  I have my concerns about their chances this year as well as the play of Eli Manning, but last week lessened them and the match up is just too good to ignore.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – The Jets just did not look like Rex Ryan was in charge of the defense last week as Darren McFadden ran all over them to give his Raiders a big win.  Ray Rice is a premiere back in this league and after he shredded the Steelers in week 1, I am just simply not at all scared of what would normally be a poor match up.  I think the Ravens match up very well against the Jets and will win this game on the legs of Rice.

Rex Grossman, QB, WAS – The Monday night game was conservative and hard fought.  Grossman put up OK numbers and didn’t kill fantasy owners that needed to use him last week.  This week the Skins get to play the Rams in a dome. After watching Flacco tear the Rams’ secondary apart last week I think Grossman has a great chance for a really good game. St Louis is not as competitive so far this season as they were last year and I am choosing not to overreact to a mediocre offensive outing in an NFC East rivalry game.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN – Buffalo has been an entirely different team this year.  They have been able to stop the run and put up huge numbers on offense. One weakness they still have is at linebacker. Last season the Bills allowed 11 TDs to opposing tight ends (worst in the NFL) and an average of 9.2 fantasy points per game (also worst in the NFL).  That average is down to 8.7 so far this year, but have only faced one legitimate TE (Gronkowski) and he tore them apart.  It is also worth noting that this weakness is why Wes Welker went crazy last week on short crossing routes.  I look for the Bengals to try and mirror this approach and with Dalton playing this well, it should be a relatively effective strategy.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – I won’t be shocked if Harvin doesn’t have a big day, but Harvin is the one spark that the Vikings have in their receiving corp and without Eric Berry, the Chiefs secondary is far more vulnerable to the deep play.  I personally like safe and consistent producers, but I can’t ignore the high likelihood of Harvin ripping off a long TD run or catch against this secondary.

Hate

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – The Jets offense has become much more about the passing attack and I don’t think that is the kind of QB that Sanchez is best suited to be. So far he has proved me wrong and put up some quality numbers.  I do not think it is very likely to happen in this game and think that the Ravens will be able to force some bad decisions out of Sanchez. Don’t let his early production fool you, I do not think he is a legit #1 QB for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – Most people thought that Tolbert was the guy you wanted to draft from the Charger’s backfield because he was available much later and likely to see a lot of goal line touches. This was affirmed in week 1 and since then, it looks like we were dead wrong.  I am not jumping ship yet, but the Chargers have not been playing inspired football in recent weeks and despite a good match-up I don’t think Tolbert is a very good start this week. I want to see how the work load is distributed in a couple weeks when the Chargers are back to their old selves again.  I wish I could figure out why they are so bad early in the year and so good late…

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – What is it about all the RBs who received big contracts this off season? they all seem slow and unable to find a crease to run through.  Williams hasn’t been widely discussed as a bust because Chris Johnson and Frank Gore are taking all the heat, but he has just been awful as of late and Jonathan Stewart is clearly the guy worth starting if you need a Panther RB in your lineup.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – This has nothing to do with his recent performance really. I didn’t expect him to improve on last season much, if at all and the Buccs are a young team that is sstill establishing their identity. A big part of this identity needs to be LeGarrette Blount and he needs to see at least 20 carries to be as effective as they would like.   I think the Buccs will take a conservative approach and try and run early and often against a bad Colts rush defense. Williams is still the go-to guy when they need a big play through the air, but his targets will be down as there is not likely to be much need to take risks against the win-less, Peyton-less Colts.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - Have you met Darrelle Revis yet Mr. Boldin?

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