No Comments »

What a crazy start to the 2011 season. We saw proven, storied franchises collapse completely and we saw a rookie debut record from a class of QBs that no one was excited about. So lets get this week 1 recap started!

Studs

Tom Brady, QB, NE – Over 500 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll excuse the INT because he probably single-handedly won your week 1 match up if you had him.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton was not expected to be an immediate success in the NFL.  He came from an option-style offense after just one year and one NCAA championship. Many people, including myself, felt that he was not worth the number 1 overall draft pick.  24 completions on 37 attempts, 422 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. That shut me up. This yardage total is a record for rookie’s in their debut, beating out Peyton Manning’s first ever rookie performance.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Wow. Are the Raven’s that good or are the Steelers that bad? Honestly, probably neither.  But Rice’s performance was outstanding considering how dominant the Steelers defense has been.  He was certainly helped by 7 turnovers increasing his number of chances, but I am interested to see just how big of a season Rice will have running behind Vonta Leach.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith definitely helped Cam look good Sunday as he faced off against Patrick Peterson and made him look foolish all day in coverage. After last season, in my Year in Review article, I discussed how if Carolina could land a decent QB then Smith would return to fantasy relevance. I am still not betting on Newton’s consistency, but Newton sure looks like he will be enough to make Smith into a startable option for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – He may not have racked up too much yardage, but any fantasy owner loves to see a 3 TD performance and that’s what Tolbert did this week. He did appear to be hurt late in that game, but all reports have been great since the game and we can expect Tolbert to be at 100% for week 2.  His usage in the passing game and especially in the red zone makes Tolbert the clear guy to own of the Chargers running backs.  At least for now.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Bears offense looks to be building off their success from last season and Forte is going to be a big part of that with his pass catching ability out of the backfield. I was surprised to see Khalil Bell get 10 carries in the win over the Falcons, but in a Mike Martz system, you want the guy that catches the ball so I am not concerned.  Especially not following 158 all-purpose yards and a TD.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I love to talk about this guy, I don’t think people are giving him the credit he deserves.  He tallied 136 yards on 5 catches and scored twice in Week 1.  This is going to be a season to remember for Britt and it will be without an elite QB.  This guy has a really bright future and will be a big part of your season if you were lucky enough to draft him.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – 150 yards on 22 carries? I guess he isn’t a one-year wonder.  While the match-up wasn’t great, neither was anyone else on the Raiders.  He will remain an integral part of the game plan and he is a number 1 caliber back in my opinion.

Chad Henne, QB, MIA – People might not have noticed exactly how good Henne was in a losing effort on Monday night.  His opponent Brady overshadowed him pretty bad, but Henne finished as the 2nd highest point total among all QB’s in the NFL in week 1 and should not be on free agency if you have serious QB concerns.

Duds

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben committed FIVE turnovers this week with three interceptions and two lost fumbles as the Steelers looked completely inept against division rival Baltimore Ravens.  A bad game doesn’t make me as nervous as the loss of right tackle Willie Colon for the season as the offensive line was weak already.  You need a good, servicable back up for Ben this year.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Rivers ended up with a decent enough point total that he evades a spot on this list, but Rivers did not play that well in Week 1.  The Chargers are known to start slow and managed to claw their way to a win… but special teams hurt them again and Jackson was not a factor in the vertical passing game, which will need to change for the Chargers to be a Super Bowl contender as they hope to be.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Holding out as long as he did really slowed the start of the season for CJ2k as he had just 24 yards rushing and 25 receiving. I thought he was supposed to be one of the top playmakers in the NFL? I guess he’ll have to earn that pay check next week.  If you own him, your starting him.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – The Buccs have some work to do because despite how close the score looked at the end of the game, the Lions really controlled the game from start to finish and Blount was rendered ineffective by a need to pass to try and get back into the game.  Blount needs carries to get into a rhythm and wear down the defense so I am not too concerned, but we can expect at least a few more games like this by the end of the season.  He is still a solid RB2.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I kinda called this one, the Buffalo pass defense does not get enough credit and they really shut down the Chiefs in week 1.  I have concerns going forward for Bowe, but I had them before and he is no more than a low-end WR2 in my eyes.  He will drop further if KC can’t get their running game going either.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons offense looked out-matched against the Bears D and Ryan was not a very effective passer in this game. I think the Falcons will get ti figured out and I am not overly concerned with Ryan going forward.

No Comments »

No Comments »

This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years.  While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.

The First Seven

As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs.  Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance.  Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down.  Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league.  I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall.  Logic is bound to prevail  I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value.  This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense.  Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season.  In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value.  New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format.  Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner.  I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.

The Top 20

Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8^th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson.  Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season.  MJD slid to 9^th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run.  LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues.  Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11^th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense.  Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13^th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense.  Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion.  I have him at 16^th.  He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury.  All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work.  Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries.  Definitely not on the goal line though.

Backups and Flex Options

This is where I do not want to pick many running backs.  The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven.  The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene.  He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role.  I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23^rd and 21^st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush.  Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload.  I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play.  Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2.  I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again.  Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29^th in the rankings.  I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee

Busts

Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram

No Comments »

No Comments »

No Comments »

No Comments »

No Comments »

No Comments »

No Comments »