Love

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – I have watched a LOT of Redskins film this season because of all the RG3 questions.  While watching this film, I have fallen in love with the Redskins rookie. No, not Griffen! I’m talking about Alfred Morris of course! This guy has been a beast. He has a surprisingly few number of weaknesses that I can see on tape. He has phenomenal vision; In week 4, there was just one run where I was not sure why he went to the hole he did and he still made a 4 yard gain out of it because of his power. This guy squats 650 lbs, which is an insanely high number for a guy who is 5’11” 222 lbs. He is always moving forward when tackled and is VERY rarely taken down by the first contact. Not much else to say, he is a top 10 guy until he gives me a single reason not to believe in him.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – I assure you, this isn’t me over reacting to last week when Cutler played very well. I still feel he is risky and prone to bone-headed turnovers. But the Jaguars are among the worst teams in the league and their secondary is known to not be effective against elite receivers, which I believe that Marshall is. I look for both guys to have a really good game this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings are simply put, a MUCH better team than we anticipated. Harvin was a high draft pick on my board this year but he has still managed to out-perform my expectations. After all, he is currently the 16th best receiver in the league as far as fantasy points is concerned without scoring a touchdown in the passing game OR running game yet. He’s been great and he’ll be getting even better. I am not too worried about Jerome Simpson taking targets because Harvin is mostly a big-play guy anyways, he won’t need a high volume of targets to be productive.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – Jackie Battle is a hot waiver-wire pickup because all of a sudden, he is splitting time with Mathews. I want to caution Mathews owners a bit to not panic and bench their guy. You drafted him and your stuck with him until he starts producing and then you can make a trade but until then, you should LIKE the fact that Battle is seeing work. Mathews is among the least durable starting RBs in football by reputation and if he is sure to see 20+ touches a game, I don’t think he can possibly stay healthy.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – New England did a good job of containing Steve Johnson last week against the Bills and it led to Donald Jones having his most productive game of his career. I don’t have any worries about Demaryius Thomas but rather I am just demonstrating that no matter who it is, you want to play your potential starting receivers against the Patriots secondary.

Hate

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – This is a guy who, despite the bad week last week, is a must-start fantasy back. But after the speedy return from injury and considering the crushing match-up ahead of Buffalo, I caution you to think of the Bills RBs as a poor RB 2 or solid flex play this week and no more.

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – I am still high on Garcon’s upside for the season and wish I owned him… but this week isn’t the best time to play him if you can avoid it.  I know it’ll be his second game back and he suffered no setbacks at all last week, but I think it best to temper expectations on him so that you don’t get burned. Atlanta isn’t a soft match up and Garcon is a flex play for me personally.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – The Panthers running game is a bit of a nightmare for fantasy owners under normal circumstances and with the Seahawks’ crushing defense coming to town, I want no part of Williams at all.  Stewart is a bad flex play but only because he is the more likely target in the passing game. Try and stay clear of both guys this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – If you read my stuff, you’ll see plenty of negative talk surrounding Ryan Fitzpatrick because I am a Buffalo native and die-hard Bills fan.  From a fantasy perspective however, he’s been pretty awesome as a QB2. He has been making some BAD throws all season and has a lot of turnovers. For fantasy owners, he has thrown more TD passes than any QB in the league despite his mistakes and benefits greatly from a punishing rushing attack.  This week, it looks like Buffalo will be down two offensive linemen and facing them 49ers. ONLY in 2 QB leagues is he a playable guy and even then, it’s mostly because we are missing the bye week guys.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – You still got to use him but he is at #8 in my rankings and that means you have to lower expectations quite a bit.  Seattle is in town and they have only allowed double digit fantasy points to the opposing QB once this year and Romo only had 12 in that game. I would be pretty surprised to see Newton over 20 points unless he has a big rushing day or a couple goal line rushing scores.

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So I am in three leagues that are my main focus and important to me. The first two are my money leagues, not a lot of cheddar but enough to keep people honest and active throughout the season. I feel bad that I have not given near as much content for my readers this off season and have decided to recap each of my drafts for those of you who have a late draft still scheduled.  I promise you all a much more thorough preseason next year and each year to follow.

Money League #1 – Big Jim’s League of Doom.

I am the commissioner of this league if you didn’t pick up on that by it’s name and I just drafted this team last night.  The scoring is pretty much standard except for the following:

+6 points per passing TD (usually 4)

-2 points per INT (usually 1)

+1 point for 100 yards rushing in a game (added)

+1 point for 150 yards rushing in a game (added)

+2 points for 200 yards rushing in a game (added)

I personally have always run my league with this scoring, I love the passing TD’s at 6 points and think that having a high rushing total on a game is hard to come by and worth some recognition on the score board for fantasy owners.

The league consists of my personal friends, some of their friends and some people who I am trying to introduce to the game because I think they would get a lot of enjoyment from it.

I was given the 6th pick in the first round and my team ended up as follows:

Rnd #	Pick #	Selection
1.	(6)	Tom Brady (NE – QB)
2.	(19)	Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)
3.	(30)	Hakeem Nicks (NYG – WR)
4.	(43)	BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cin – RB)
5.	(54)	Antonio Brown (Pit – WR)
6.	(67)	Willis McGahee (Den – RB)
7.	(78)	Ben Tate (Hou – RB)
8.	(91)	Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
9.	(102)	LeGarrette Blount (TB – RB)
10.	(115)	Kendall Wright (Ten – WR)
11.	(126)	Randy Moss (SF – WR)
12.	(139)	Alshon Jeffery (Chi – WR)
13.	(150)	Buffalo (Buf – DEF)
14.	(163)	Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
15.	(174)	Jason Hanson (Det – K)

Brady was a no-brainer with the scoring for passing TDs.  I stayed true to my strategy of QB then RB in the first two rounds and went with Charles in the 2nd here. I am confident that he is back to full strength and think he will be back to his old self by the first game of the season.  Hakeem Nicks was #5 on my WR board at the time of the draft and with 10 other wide receivers already taken, I felt very fortunate to be left the option of Nicks with my third round pick.  Fred Jackson, Lynch and Peterson were still available at RB but with 8 picks between then and my round 4 pick, I was pretty sure I could get a suitable RB 2. This was a risky call that paid off for me but barely.  Only Law Firm remained on my list of guys that I was targeting at RB2 and I didn’t hesitate to scoop him up.  This guy has never fumbled in his career and the Bengals will just be feeding him the ball over 20 times in every game.  He is worth a play as an RB2 based solely off the opportunity that this many guaranteed touches will give him.

I was left with a tough choice for WR2 and to be honest, I betrayed my board by taking Brown over Jeremy Maclin with the 54th overall pick. They are right next to each other at the bottom of my top 20 but as I had already gotten Maclin in both of the leagues below I wanted to spread out my bets and go with Brown, who I did plan to target for my WR2 this year anyways.  I spent the next two picks on safe and consistent RB depth because I knew I could get some good WR options later on and felt that the value of McGahee and Tate were too high. With such a shallow pool of RB talent this season, to have 3 top 20 guys and 5 top 30 guys by the end, I feel that I am in great shape to make some trades.  I also feel really safe in the event that an early RB selection goes down to injury. A few of these guys will turn out to be viable RB2 or flex plays.

The rest of the first 12 rounds were spent on high upside sleeper WRs. I did miss Justin Blackmon but I got each of my other deep targets with Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffery and Randy Moss. Any one of these guys has top 10 upside but in reality, if I could just pick up a quality WR2 to fill in for the injury prone Hakeem Nicks out of this group, my team will be stacked and poised for a deep playoff run.  I reached for Buffalo in the 13th round because I had them at 8 in my rankings after their impressive performance keeping Roethlisberger and the Steelers at bay simply by rushing the front four for almost an entire half. Daniels was also at the bottom of my top 10 TE’s and waiting on these two positions should prove very valuable to me as I was able to ensure I got all my sleeper picks and increased the chance that one of late round guys has a big year.

Money League #2 - Interweb Pigskin 2012.

For those of you who don’t know me personally, I am a reasonably competitive Magic: The Gathering player and joined a league commished by the owner of my local card shop.  The scoring is set up as standard with the following tweaks:

+6 points per passing TD (usually 4)

-3 points per INT (usually 4)

+1 point per reception

-2 points per FG missed 0-19 yards (added)

-1 points per FG missed 20-29 yards (added)

+3 points per defensive INT (usually 2)

+5 points per safety (usually 2)

+3 points per blocked kick (usually 2)

Here we go, nightmare announcement… 12th pick in the draft. =(.  Ok not really, this isn’t the worst spot you can be in so don’t panic.  Here is my logic on why I like drafting last more than anywhere else in the 2nd half of the first round; In almost every draft I do, someone takes a player in the first round who I do not think is worthy of a first round selection. No draft has ever followed my exact rankings for longer than 6 selections and I am always able to get two players who I have given a first round grade on.  Picking in round 7 or later just means that the elite talent has passed me by and now im taking a risk on someone with some substantial downside to keep him from being inside that top tier. If I must take that risk, I’d prefer to get two of them to make make it even more likely I have a top 5 scorer at the end of the season. Here is how it worked out for me in this one:

Rnd #	Pick #	Selection
1.	(12)	Matthew Stafford (Det – QB)
2.	(13)	Matt Forte (Chi – RB)
3.	(36)	Antonio Gates (SD – TE)
4.	(37)	DeMarco Murray (Dal – RB)
5.	(60)	Stevie Johnson (Buf – WR)
6.	(61)	Jeremy Maclin (Phi – WR)
7.	(84)	Nate Washington (Ten – WR)
8.	(85)	C.J. Spiller (Buf – RB)
9.	(108)	LeGarrette Blount (TB – RB)
10.	(109)	Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
11.	(132)	Mario Manningham (SF – WR)
12.	(133)	Alshon Jeffery (Chi – WR)
13.	(156)	Toby Gerhart (Min – RB)
14.	(157)	Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buf – QB)
15.	(180)	Atlanta (Atl – DEF)

Another league with 6 points per passing TD means that a lot my QB’s are first round guys. Stafford was the 5th one taken and the last QB I think has the potential to lead this entire league in points. He has some injury risk so I made sure to draft a backup and decided to not take a kicker yet so that I can drop Gerhart should AP indeed make it back for week 1. I decided to go with Forte at the top of the second because of the PPR scoring. He is a lock at 4 in the rankings for PPR in my opinion and was a very safe pick this late with 4 other backs already gone.  Antonio Gates is as healthy as he has been in the past few seasons and the options that Rivers has left are not that strong.  Say what you want about Meachem but there is definitely not the same trust that he has with Gates and now that Tolbert is gone, Gates is by and far the best red zone threat for Rivers.  I wasn’t wild about my WR options and thought this would likely give me the best overall roster since I could get so many more quality receivers late.  DeMarco Murray is somewhat involved in the receiving game but really, he was just as good of an RB2 as I could have hoped for this late as he is 8th in my rankings for standard leagues and PPR only matters so much.

When I play in PPR leagues, I really try and avoid the big-play receivers. I can field a much more consistent team in this format by taking those receivers who are the primary 3rd down target for the team.  First was Stevie Johnson, who is the #1 guy for my Bills and Fitpatrick’s most trusted receiver over the past couple years.  He has had some issues with drops in some key plays but for PPR owners, Johnson is a very good WR2.  For me he will serve as my WR1 but he sat within three spots in my rankings from Jeremy Maclin at the time and I went ahead and scooped up Maclin with the very next pick. After two rounds of picks, I decided that I would get both a good WR and RB to split time in my flex spot throughout the season.  Both Nate Washington and C.J. Spiller are more valuable in a PPR format than they normally would be and I think they were solid choices for the 7th and 8th round. Spiller has not made much of his opportunities thus far but his physical abilities are not in question. He is a dynamic playmaker who just hasn’t put it together in the run game.  The Bills have Fred Jackson playing at an elite level so I expect Spiller to serve as the third down back in passing situations and I also expect them to do a fair amount of motioning him out of the backfield or just lining him up at receiver in certain situations to try and get him the ball with space.

As usual, I loaded up on deep sleeper WRs by taking Malcom Floyd, Mario Manningham and Alshon Jeffery late. I think Manningham is the most interesting PPR sleeper in the draft.  Rumor has it that he has been the hardest receiver to cover in training camp and as Alex Smith develops a report with him, it will be interesting to see how the targets get divided up. I will happily the upside of a top 15 WR in end of the 11th round.  Not the best draft ever but I will be a contender and with some smart moves, I could be a force to be reckoned with.

“Tailgating At Tha KRIB Podcast” League - GRIDIRON Dawgz

This is the league that was set up by @wcsteelerfan that consists of writers and experts in the wide world of sports. @buccos12 and myself co-host with @wcsteelerfan producing and playing with us is  @BoxingVoice_Vic @Pacman453323 @SethDaSportsMan as well as numerous others.  The league’s scoring and settings differed from standard leagues because of the following changes:

+6 points per passing TD (usually 4)

-2 points per INT (usually 1)

No more than 4 RB’s per team

No more than 4 WR’s per team

This draft was done live and on air by all of our league’s owners and you can listen to it right now on Blog Talk Radio. I was given the 2nd overall pick and here is how it went down:

Rnd #	Pick #	Selection
1.	(2)	Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB)
2.	(23)	Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)
3.	(26)	Adrian Peterson (Min – RB)
4.	(47)	Brandon Lloyd (NE – WR)
5.	(50)	Jeremy Maclin (Phi – WR)
6.	(71)	Beanie Wells (Ari – RB)
7.	(74)	Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
8.	(95)	Toby Gerhart (Min – RB)
9.	(98)	Denarius Moore (Oak – WR)
10.	(119)	Baltimore (Bal – D/ST)
11.	(122)	Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
12.	(143)	Carson Palmer (Oak – QB)
13.	(146)	New York (NYG – D/ST)
14.	(167)	Kellen Winslow (Sea – TE)
15.	(170)	Jason Hanson (Det – K)

Rodgers shouldn’t have made it to me even with the #2 pick so I was happy to add him. A #2 overall pick is very risky and Rodgers is a guy I am positive will return my expected value. Charles fell pretty far to me in the 2nd round and I followed him up with Peterson in the third, just 3 picks after I took Charles. Peterson has been coming back from injury faster than I thought he would and while I still expect that he will be slow to get back to his old self, he is pretty likely to see the field in week 1 from what I have heard thus far. Brandon Lloyd was a big get for me here as I think he easily has top 5 receiver potential in that offense. Brady will look for him and McDaniels will call his number.  Since I waited on WR and don’t really have a sure-fire WR1, I was pleased to get a sure-fire WR2 in Maclin.

My next two picks were unfortunate.  Many of us guys were not aware of the cap at four WRs and RBs. So I would very likely have taken a flier on a QB or reached on a lesser TE here rather than add Floyd and Wells to my squad.  I think both guys will do OK but they have very limited upside and I would have rather gone with a  couple of late-round sleepers. However after that, I was able to scoop up Gerhart to handcuff Peterson and he will provide me with some good insurance in case of injury.  I was able to get Denarius Moore to serve as my sleeper but I usually like to have 3 or 4 sleeper picks coming out of a draft.  From here on out I just ensured that I had backups for my QB, TE and D/ST as there was nothing better to do with these bench slots after I capped out at RB and WR.  If Adrian Peterson doesn’t get hurt again, I feel as though I am a lock for one of the top playoff seeds.  The roster requirements make us all a LOT more vulnerable to fantasy-season-ruining injuries but that increased risk isn’t specific to me so I like my odds to take home the bragging rights for this league.

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We kick off our draft coverage by taking a look at the Quarterbacks. The position is undergoing a metamorphosis in the NFL right now and this forces us fantasy-owners to make adjustments or suffer the consequences on draft day. Prior to last season just two QB’s in the NFL’s history had ever thrown for 5,000 yards passing in a single season (Dan Marino with 5084 yards in 1984 and Drew Brees with 5069 yards in 2008). Last season there were THREE 5,000 yard passers (5476 yards for Drew Brees, 5235 yards for Tom Brady and 5,038 for Matthew Stafford).  It is also worth noting that Aaron Rodgers would have joined this club as well had he played Week 17 and gotten the yardage total that backup Matt Flynn had in that game and Eli Manning was just 67 yards shy of the 5000 yard milestone.  WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR!? Nothing too surprising actually. You shouldn’t be surprised to hear that the NFL is moving to a pass-first league and that teams are paying more than ever to retain the franchise quarterback as well as to develop the wide receiver talent around them.

The Top Three

Rodgers, Brady and Brees have essentially established a new tier for Quarterbacks in fantasy football.  The “second tier” of QB’s for this coming season are every bit as valuable on draft day that the “top tier” was at last year.  It is because of this that I am now advocating 3 QB’s being taken in the first 5 picks of EVERY draft, regardless of scoring.  That means that I am saying that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should go #1 and #2 in every single draft with it also being unacceptable for Brees, even with the turmoil in New Orleans, to be taken after anyone but my top two Running Backs (Rice and Foster) Here is my reasoning; First round picks are SUPER DANGEROUS!  The first round is never where I want to reach for a player that I am personally very high on, despite no track record of consistent production.  Many people will tell you, and I am one of them, that you can not win your league in the first round… only lose it. These three QB’s are the guys with the longest track record of consistent, elite-level production.

Rodgers has seemingly perfected the art of Quarterbacking over the past two seasons and in 2011, he never once tallied single digit fantasy points and the only time he was below 20 was in week 14 vs Oakland (17 points).  It is also worth noting that despite playing just 16 games and not making the 5000 yard club, he was still the highest scoring player in the NFL for fantasy owners due to his rushing statistics and just six interceptions on the year (Brees had 14 and Brady 12).

Brady is definitely below Rodgers in my book but it isn’t by much at all.  Brady has Josh McDaniels back as his offensive coordinator and when these two were together previously, Brady set numerous records. McDaniels brought Brandon Lloyd with him after the two apparently developed a significant bond during their time together in Denver and St. Louis.  Lloyd is the best deep threat Brady will have had to throw to since the departure of Randy Moss and because of that, his upside hasn’t been higher in a long time.

Brees falls down in my rankings because of bountygate taking the primary play-caller off the team for the year and the impact that simply moving him up to the coaches box had last season when Sean Peyton got injured.  He still has Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston though so I am happy to leave him in the top 3.

The Starting QB’s

Spots 4 through 12 on my rankings are the rest of the guys that will be used as a “starting QB” in almost every league. They are as follows:

Matthew Stafford

Michael Vick

Eli Manning

Cam Newton

Peyton Manning

Tony Romo

Matt Ryan

Phillip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

Matthew Stafford has had just one full season of elite numbers so he remains a late first round pick at best in my book.  I’m not super concerned with injuries going forward with him but I could certainly see a scenario where the Lions take a step backward this season and his numbers dip some.

Michael Vick would be an elite guy if I could see much of a scenario where he played 16 games but, I can barely even imagine it.  You can expect plenty of great weeks from Vick but I can’t take a QB in the first round who has so much risk to not start for me in the playoffs.

Eli had 20 turnovers eating away at his fantasy point totals last season and I have concerns about whether or not he can repeat his yardage totals, even with such a talented WR duo.

Cam Newton is a bit of an anomaly as a rushing QB. Typically we can’t rely on rushing TD’s to repeat but the difference here is that Newton actually gets these plays CALLED for him to run on the goal line and that will continue.  You should expect his rushing stats to dip after the Panthers added Mike Tolbert, another solid back who is especially effective in the red zone.  There is also likely to be a lot more passing attempts on the goal line however because Tolbert is a very effective target in the passing game as well.

Peyton Manning has always been an “elite performer” but after a year off, he is pretty likely to have a slow start on a new offense. Manning is also historically not quite the same guy outdoors and the Broncos play just one game inside a dome and that is in Arizona in Week 4.

I think that if you get stuck in a spot without one of the top 3 guys, there aren’t many safer bets than Romo.  With DeMarco Murray giving the Cowboys a rushing attack and the talent that the Cowboys have at receiver, Romo should do just fine statistically this year. I could easily see him over 4,500 yards this season.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense appears to be migrating to the pass-first style of the rest of the NFL. Michael Turner has not churned out the production that Atlanta signed up for and with Julio Jones proving to be a serious threat in the passing game late last season, they will almost certainly be airing the ball out a lot more from here on out.  I’m not 100% that Ryan can handle this style of offense and put up top 5 numbers so he comes in at #10 in my rankings.

Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert were two of Rivers’ top targets over the past couple of seasons but last year they were both pretty inconsistent as far as drops are concerned. Now they aren’t on the team and Rivers’ value will be determined by the chemistry he can develop with his new receiving corps.  Vincent Brown has a very promising rookie campaign and is looking to fill the void that VJax left behind with Malcom Floyd and new acquisition Robert Meachem.

Ben Roethlisberger will remain a big-play machine but consistency is a big problem and so is health.  Only one QB who is currently on an NFL team has been sacked more than Ben and that is Matt Hasselbeck, who we can all agree is a fair bit older than Ben and yet he has only been sacked 14 additional times.

The Best Backups

The end of my QB rankings is a little different than most that I have seen and is as follows:

Jay Cutler

Matt Schaub

Joe Flacco

Alex Smith

Josh Freeman

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Sam Bradford

Kevin Kolb

Carson Palmer

Robert Griffen III

Andy Dalton

Matt Flynn

Matt Cassel

Clearly I have no love for RG3 as he is at 23rd in my rankings.  He has some value as a backup in the event that you do not get one of the elite guys this season because there is an outside chance that he has a Cam Newton-esque rookie campaign and winds up being a top 10 guy anyways.  I however, cannot let this tiny chance force me to spend very much at all for him on draft day and since SOMEONE is going to reach on him, I won’t be owning the Redskins’ new Quarterback at all this season.

Jay Cutler has by far the most potential among this group, with Brandon Marshall rejoining him in a new place this time.  Cutler will be quick to get back into rhythm with his old favorite target and Marshall is immediately the most talented receiver on the Bears offense.  Forte still provides a dynamic and unique threat that offensive coordinator Mike Martz has had a lot of success utilizing thus far.  I expect the Bears offense to take a big step forward and would love to have Cutler as my #2 guy for the 2012 season.

It is a little weird to list Schaub as a back up but after his late-season injury and the continual injuries of Andre Johnson, the Texans are sure to lean heavy on their VERY successful running game. Schaub is also sure to be limited in his movement capabilities and he also may have some minor pain issues early in the year.

If you have an elite guy on your roster, then I think you should target Carson Palmer as your backup.  You can probably scoop him up at the very end of your draft and I think he has a serious shot at being a top 15 fantasy QB for the second half of the season.  Expect a slow start and hold him on your roster unless you get ravaged by an injury and he hasn’t turned it on yet. But take a look at his numbers over the 2nd half of last season,

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1.	Tom Brady	Vs. BUF
2.	Cam Newton	@ NO
3.	Drew Brees	Vs. CAR
4.	Michael Vick	Vs. WAS
5.	Tony Romo	@ NYG
6.	Matthew Stafford	@ GB
7.	Eli Manning	Vs. DAL
8.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	@ NE
9.	Tim Tebow	Vs. KC
10.	Philip Rivers	@ OAK
11.	Matt Ryan	Vs. TB
12.	Josh Freeman	@ ATL
13.	Mark Sanchez	@ MIA
14.	Aaron Rodgers	Vs. DET
15.	Ben Roethlisberger	@ CLE
16.	Matt Moore	Vs. NYJ
17.	Alex Smith	@ STL
18.	Joe Flacco	@ CIN
19.	Carson Palmer	Vs. SD
20.	Kyle Orton	@ DEN
21.	Andy Dalton	Vs. BAL
22.	Josh Freeman	@ ATL
23.	Joe Webb	Vs. CHI
24.	Matt Flynn	Vs. DET
25.	John Skelton	Vs. SEA

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Question 1: Asked by @E_RICHT5F3LD

There are a ton of options at QB in my league who should I go with? Tebow, Moore, Sanchez, Smith, Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick or Rivers.

Answer

I would have to say that it’s Tebow time!  Unless your league has some goofy scoring, I would take the consistency that Tebow provides.  His rushing ability has made it so that he is able to put up a solid point total every week.  This week he faces off against a tough Bears D but they should be able to wear down Chicago’s defense by keeping their offense off the field.  Without Cutler or Forte to help extend drives and win the field position battle on offense, I don’t see how they are able to bottle up the consistent and punishing run-game of the Broncos.

Question 2: Asked by @JoshVitale

Who do I start at Flex: Plaxico, Benson, D.Moore or K.Smith (if healthy)? Or should I just quit #fantasyfootball?

Answer

Quitters never prosper Josh… Play Benson.  He has a rough match up and while he is probably going to have a mediocre at best week, he is a feature back and therefore will see enough carries to make him worth the start.  We can reasonably expect A.J. Green to force Houston to respect the deep ball and this will open a few running lanes for Benson.  Whether or not he disappoints will come down to whether or not he punches one in but I think you have to play him in the playoffs, where risks tend to back fire.

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Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Teams have been beating up on the Rams all season with a punishing rushing game. Gore has yet to play against them yet this year but I have little doubt that he is able to end his slump this week.  The Rams are allowing an average of 159 yards per game to opposing running backs and while Kendall Hunter is bound to see a fair few carries as well, Gore is just about a lock for 100 yards.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – The Buccaneers are not as well-rounded as they were last year and Freeman has certainly been a part of the problem.  Fortunately, the Panthers defense fixes a lot of issues.  You should start all your typical Buccaneers in this game because Carolina can neither stop the run or the pass. If you need convincing, take a look at the stats the Colts had on offense last week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – All the attention is on Cruz lately and Nicks has been very underwhelming this season but I think Nicks is the one due for a huge game. Green Bay is going to win, I am pretty damned sure of it but the Packers have the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and I still trust Nicks more than Cruz.  He is a superior red zone target and when it counts, Eli will look his way.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Law Firm has been a very inconsistent player this season and he isn’t totally to blame.  Three backs other than Green-Ellis saw at least 4 carries in the game last week for the Patriots and while Law Firm was by and far the leader with 14, it is incredibly frustrating to see as a Law Firm owner. Don’t sweat it this week against the Colts who can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – The Texans are going to have to dig deep to pull off a win against Atlanta this week.  I am not crazy about Johnson this week but Atlanta has a lights-out run defense and eventually, TJ Yates or not, the Texans will have to go to the air.  The only thing that will keep Johnson from producing is opportunity so if he can get a few targets, he will do something with them. I think AJ is a solid WR2 this week.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – The Bills were actually competitive again and Fitz played really well against that Jets D. I’m not sold yet.  The injury report for Buffalo is a mile long and I don’t see them as a high-powered offense without Fred Jackson in the lineup. Make Fitzpatrick do it one more time before you take a gamble and start him with your season on the line.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Hanie played bad on Sunday and while I expect him to improve, I have no reason to expect Knox to put up near the same numbers.  Watching the game last week showed that Knox was on fire and clearly the Bears’ best playmaker but after such a disappointing season I want to see him do it a couple of times before I start to buy in to it. Leave him on the bench.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – The Texans offense essentially runs through Foster and Tate now but the Falcons have absolutely been shutting down opposing running backs.  You have to start Foster regardless this week but I think he is going to be hard pressed to manage over a hundred yards. Lower expectations and hope for the best this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings really made an effort to get the ball in the hands of Harvin with Peterson sidelined.  Unfortunately the Broncos defense has been playing great in recent weeks and Harvin is not very likely to have a repeat performance.  His speed and skill in the open field mean that you should be starting him in your flex spot anyways but I don’t expect a lot of open space in this game.

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Love

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – The Redskins are just awful recently and I see no reason for this to change.  Shanahan seems to change his mind about who he is starting at RB by the minute and because of that, this team is in disarray. Even if Murray doesn’t get a big play, he will be used heavily to close out the win after Romo gets it done with his arm.  Murray is inside my top 10 this week and I don’t see him disappointing.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL – The Rams still haven’t been playing great outside the game against New Orleans, but they have been in need of a WR with elite skills that can beat man coverage and Lloyd has given them that.  Bradford finally has a guy that he can trust enough to throw the ball up to in a jump-ball scenario and this duo will only get better as they become more and more comfortable with each other.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Romo just carved up the Bills secondary to shreds last week and when he is on his game, he is more than capable of huge fantasy point totals.  The Dallas offense has been functioning much more smoothly since the emergence of DeMarco Murray.  He brings a balance to the offense that opposing defenses can NOT ignore and it has meant that his receivers are able to get open deep much more often.

James Starks, RB, GB – With teams on bye and a fair few guys injured, I think Starks could make a VERY nice flex play this week as a fill-in.  Admittedly this offense runs on the arm of Aaron Rodgers but, Carolina is allowing an average of 24.2 fantasy points per game (worst in the NFL) and Starks should be used a bit more than he normally is.  Even if that is done by way of the passing game.

Deion Branch, WR, NE – The Patriots don’t have an elite receiver but they do not need one against KC because the Chiefs don’t have any elite cover-corners.  Since reuniting with Brady, Branch’s career has been rejuvenated and there is no one that has more chemistry with Brady apart from Welker. Branch makes a very interesting flex play this week in what is sure to be a blow out… in prime-time… poor Tyler Palko.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – I have been very cautions with Lynch as a fantasy player throughout his career.  He has always lacked consistency and the past two weeks are the first back-to-back 100 yard performances of his career.  With a soft match-up and Lynch playing as well as he ever has, the risk is as low as it has been in a while. Go ahead and start him with confidence as an RB2 for this Sunday.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I am not going to forget about the first half of this season just because Johnson has had two respectable fantasy performances.  As I said in yesterday’s Studs n Duds post, most of Johnson’s production was in garbage time against an exhausted defense.  I also said that I was going to stand up and take notice at how effective Atlanta was at shutting down the Saints’ RBs. Johnson is back outside my top 20 this week but should be ok for a flex-start.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – Even though Decker is the guy that Tebow looks for the most, I don’t think you can afford to start him this week.  With just two completions for Denver last week and facing the Revis/Cromartie duo, I don’t know if a Bronco wide receiver will have a catch in this entire game.  If one does, good luck guessing who it will be and don’t count on it being a scoring play.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – Saying that Fitz would barely be a top 20 guy against the Dolphins two weeks ago would have been absurd.  But now the Bills have been terrible and Miami is playing some pretty good football. I think Miami is going to lose but lean on the running game to limit Buffalo’s time of possession and fantasy-production.

Damian Williams, WR, TEN – I want to see how Williams does with teams preparing for him before I trust him so quickly on my fantasy-roster. I think Williams being on top of the depth chart will be a good thing for teammate Nate Washington and actually rank Washington higher this week.  Keep Williams stashed on your bench for now.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – 90 yards was a decent game for Ogbonnaya last week but he had a soft match up against the Rams.  While Jacksonville hasn’t been amazing this year, their run defense is their strong point and this guy had just one point two weeks ago in the starting role. He is barely a viable flex play in my eyes.

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Question 1: Asked by Valeri

Should I start Tim Tebow or Ryan Fitzpatrick this week? Thanks.

Answer

I have to give the nod to Tebow.  Fitz has a fairly decent match up against the Cowboys secondary but with LT Demetrius Bell still looking like he will be sidelined again, I am concerned about Demarcus Ware severely limiting his ability to extend plays.  This game will become about Fred Jackson for the Bills.  If Jackson gets going, the pass rush should need to respect him enough that Fitz can make the big play.  Tebow on the other hand IS the running threat that slows the pass rush and McGahee doesn’t hurt.  Even if Tebow plays bad, he is almost a lock for double digit points because he will be giving you 5-6 in rushing yards alone.

Question 2: Asked my @MFarrell21

Benson vs Pitt or Donald Brown vs the Jags with Addai likely out?

Answer

It has to be Benson. Not many guys see 20-30 touches per game and Benson has fresh legs after the Bye and his one game suspension.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing better as of late, but they are far from as lights-out against the run as they have been in recent years.  Start Benson with confidence this week but do not expect too much from him.  Be happy with 70 yards and hopefully he finds the end zone.

Question 3: Asked by Zach

Hey so what’s your take on Ryan Mathews? He did not get nearly as many carries as I expected him to last night, probably a result of his injury and the Chargers wanting to ease him back into play – as you stated in your love/hate list; but what do you think about going forward, after a 10 day stretch do you think he will start getting the bulk of carries again?  I have Starks on my bench and depending on how he plays this next game, I may consider playing him over Mathews week 11.

Answer

I think Mathews is doing fine. He only had 6 carries, but I am not really surprised that they split the carries evenly. Both backs were running well and if Tolbert can be productive, he will see touches.  Mathews was averaging 5.7 yards per carry last night and had it not gotten out of hand and San Diego would have continued to pound the rock.  My only issue with Mathews is health so if he is active and practicing all week, I think you have to start him. Especially over Starks who is on a by far pass-first team and sharing some touches with Ryan Grant.

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Question 1: Asked by @Shaban09

I just picked up D.J Ware.. im bare on RB this week with Mathews out.. who do I start.. Tomlinson or Ware?

Answer

This is a really tough call. Neither options is very good at all but I have to give the nod to Tomlinson. The bottom line here is that we just do not know how the carries will be split for the Giants.  In addition, the Giants will likely be attacking New England vertically in the passing game and the number of carries that there are to go around is very probably going to be low this week.

Question 2: Asked by @Dantvman

I need some trade advice.  I’m in 1st, guy in 3rd is offering me Garcon for Fitzpatrick.

Answer

This seems like a guy trying to sell-high on Garcon. Fitz’s value has dipped as Freddie Jackson has really taken over as the primary focus of the Bills’ offense, but he remains a GREAT backup and I don’t see any reason to give him up for a receiver that you would likely not even use in a Bye-week jam.  Hold tight and reject the trade.  If you don’t want to keep Fitz, shop him around to the rest of the league. I would think you are able to get more for him.

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Bills at Giants

I am very excited to watch my Bills play this weekend as they go on the road to face Eli Manning and the Giants. The last time Buffalo played on the road they were beat by an inferior Bengals team as Fitzpatrick struggled against a stout defense.  The Giants defensive front is phenomenal and finally healthy. Jason Pierre-Paul is quietly having a breakout season and with Osi Umenyiora back, the Bills’ offensive line is in for a long day. It will be up to Scott Chandler and the running backs to aid in protection because if they can give Fitzpatrick time, Steve Johnson and David Nelson will be able to get open. Terrence McGee will finally be on the field after injuring his hamstring in the season opener and this is very good news for Bills fans. The Giants have one of the best wide receiver trio’s in the NFL now that Victor Cruz has emerged as a play maker. Hakeem Nicks is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL and Manningham is a very complete receiver with great hands who runs very crisp routes. The story of this game will be simple: turnovers. Buffalo’s secondary has been incredibly opportunistic and has forced 4 INTs from both Tom Brady and Michael Vick this season. Eli Manning had issues with turnovers last week against the Seahawks, throwing 3 interceptions. If the Giants want to win this game, they have to protect the football and pressure Fitzpatrick.  Rookie Chris Hairston has a tall-task in his second start filling in for the injured Demetrius Bell at left tackle, but nothing slows down the pass rush like an effective run game and I like Buffalo to win a close game this week on the shoulders of Fred Jackson.  I would not sit any of your fantasy players in this game because these offenses are not going to be stopped completely. Eli Manning remains an good QB2 option, but I am too nervous about him throwing too many INTs to start him in standard leagues. Ahmad Bradshaw has the best match up here and will see a lot of use unless the game gets out of hand. David Nelson makes a very nice flex play because the loss of Donald Jones should lead to an increase in targets for Nelson.

Cowboys at Patriots

This game should be an entertaining one to say the least. Tony Romo is always the deciding factor in big games for the Cowboys, he either makes unbelievable game winning plays or bonehead mistakes that hand the game to his opponent. Maybe it’s wishful thinking as a Bills fan but I think that with an extra week to prepare and Miles Austin back in the lineup, the Cowboys will be able to squeak out a victory in a nail-biter. The deciding factor for me is on defense; in the last 5 years no one has tallied more sacks than DeMarcus Ware who tallied 72 in that time frame. Of the two defenses, Dallas’ is the one that I think has the best chance to impact the game and force a couple turnovers. The smart money is certainly on New England because Dallas is not going to be able to contain Wes Welker and Tom Brady WILL score points. Neither defense is a scary match up for fantasy owners of all players in this game. I think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are must starts along with Wes Welker who is on pace to break a few records this season. Tom Brady and Tony Romo should both be started with confidence as well but I don’t know as though any running back will have a huge game here. Each team has a weak secondary and plays a pass-first style of offense.

49ers at Lions

San Francisco has really impressed me after a slow start on offense. An easy schedule and a few timely punt returns have gotten them off to a 4-1 start and they have really started to impress me over the past two weeks on offense.  Alex Smith is playing smart and safe football and Frank Gore has been over 100 yards for the past two games. Detroit has been almost perfect over the first 5 games and they look to remain undefeated. This game will need to be won in the trenches. Detroit has invested a lot of high draft picks on their defensive line and San Francisco has invested their recent draft picks in their offensive line.  So far this season these young groups of lineman have been a huge part of their teams success and I think whoever wins THIS match up wins this football game. San Francisco has to keep Stafford and Megatron on the bench with a heavy dose of Frank Gore. Carlos Rogers is playing the best football of his life for the 9ers and has a pick in three straight games after returning one for a TD last week. I actually like San Fran to win a close game with a big play on defense giving them the edge. You have to start all your Detroit Lions though; Jahvid Best will be one of the best RB2 options for fantasy owners until he gets hurt and Calvin Johnson is by far the best receiver in the NFL for fantasy-purposes. Matthew Stafford is a very viable starter, but I don’t think he has too much big-game potential against this defense.   Alex Smith is an option in a pinch for 2 QB leagues if your having bye week issues, but I would stay away if possible.

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