Question 1: Asked by @bereninga

Should Spiller start over Ogbonnaya or Hardesty? I have all three.

Answer

I think I would, unless Hardesty AND Hillis are both inactive this week. The sheer number of carries that Spiller is bound to get combined with his big-play potential give him enough upside.  The Browns face a very stout Bengals defense this week so yardage will be tough to come by. If there is a time-share as well, then I think I would rather take the chance that Spiller breaks a big run off on the Jets.

Question 2: Asked by @Dena_Beth

Pretty sure I know the answer but should I play Victor Cruz and Steve Smith for my Wide Receivers and sit Santonio Holmes?

Answer

This seems right to me. It is admittedly close between Cruz and Holmes but with Manningham banged up and listed as questionable, I think that Cruz is bound to see an increase in targets.  Cruz has been coming along really nicely and progressing with each game. He may be a bit hit-or-miss but he has manage enough consistency that I think you need to start him and take the risk.

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Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

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The Chargers are among the elite teams in the league, and that is not about to change anytime soon. I really think that all this talk about Marcus McNeil is just posturing and that he will be signed by the start of the regular season, but with much more serious problems facing each other team in the division the Chargers should be back to them old selves well before the playoffs. Phillip Rivers has become one of the very best QBs in the league and if he can get himself a Super Bowl ring or two he will be well on his way to Canton.  Chargers fans need only hope that their contract holdouts end up signed so that they can have another deep playoff run even with a rookie running back.

Top Fantasy Players

Phillip Rivers – Rivers is an elite QB and with targets like Jackson and Gates to throw to the sky is the limit for this offense.  Also, don’t worry about the holdouts when valuing Rivers.  He will find whatever target is available.

Ryan Matthews – Even though he is a rookie, we already know that he will be the feature back.  With that many carries and not too much pressure given the quality of the passing attack he has an incredible chance for success.

Vincent Jackson – Unfortunately Jackson is able to serve his 3 game suspension while not under contract, so Jackson is probably not going to be signed by week one.  Hopefully he will not miss any additional time other than his 3 game suspension but i think he will.  Be wary of drafting him, but scoop him up if he falls into round 5 or 6 as he’ll be very productive when he gets back.

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For the past two seasons the story of this division has been the same; The Broncos start really strong but collapse late and let the Chargers take the division.  This year will be slightly different, the Chargers should be able to grab the lead early and hold it all year.  All the other teams in this division are in a rebuilding mode and even though the Chargers have a few issues to work out, by the end of the season Vincent Jackson will be on the field and Ryan Matthews should have proven to be a very productive back.

Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers

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Falcons at Giants

When you think of disappointing season this year the Falcons and the Giants come to the top of the list pretty quick.  Both teams had a relatively strong start (more so with the Giants) and then have been playing sub par football since around week 5.  Fantasy owners of Matt Ryan and Brandon Jacobs have been hit the hardest by these slumps, and with both teams in a must win scenario.  This will be a game where Matt Ryan will need to lead the team out of the slump.  Michael Turner will not be available for this game and neither will Norwood, leaving the job to Jason Snelling.  Snelling is going to do a decent job, but he is not of the same caliber as Turner.  I expect the Giants to win this game as they are a much more complete and experienced team than the Falcons are.  I do not see Jacobs being that big of a factor, and I expect Ahmad Bradshaw to start seeing more and more carries down the stretch.  Look for a big game from Steve Smith and Eli Manning.

Chargers at Broncos

The surging Chargers and the backsliding Broncos meet this weekend in a battle over the division lead.  If the Bronco’s win they would sweep both games vs thier division rivals and be on an inside track for the playoffs.  Orton looks as though he will be playing Sunday in a must win for both teams.  A Chargers victory gives them a game lead in the division and puts the Broncos into a 4 game losing streak.  If Orton and the Bronco’s want to win the division they have to turn things around NOW!  Vincent Jackson was held in check last week for the first time all season and will be looking to rebound in this pivitol game.  He should do so, and I would rank Jackson and Rivers inside the top 10 at their positions.  Do not expect to see the same production from LT this week as the Broncos are quite good against the run and LT, despite last week, has indeed lost a good deal of his quickness.

Dolphins at Panthers

This matchup is one over the wildcard spot in each conference.  Both teams had some severe struggles to start the season, but tough running games have pulled them through far enough to be contenders for the wild card.  Ronnie Brown will not be playing in this game giving the running game edge to the Panters who’s passing attack was also very effective in last weeks game.  I think the Panthers win this game suprisingly easily, despite a very good game from Ricky Williams I expect Henne to have turnover problems, which will make the ground game obsolete in the fourth quarter.

Hope this helps with your lineups for this week, get your last questions submitted to bigjim@startingfantasylineup.com for my mailbag entry tomorrow! Also use the link at the bottom of the page to follow me on twitter and submit questions there!

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