Studs

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – This was an easy choice to top this list.  Foster was able to propel the Houston Texans past Peyton Manning and the Colts for a great start in their bid to win this division.  I do not think there is any way for Foster to sustain the production of a number 1 fantasy RB for an entire season.  He is however set to be one of the best number 2 RB’s in the league for his fantasy owners due to his ability to make an impact in the passing game as well. As always Coach Kubiak is going to reserve the right to lose his mind and not use him enough to be very effective, but after Sunday Even Kubiak will realize that Foster should be the guy.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI - This was an ugly game with a terrible ending, but not for Matt Forte and the Bears.  In a game where the Bears should have been lighting up the scoreboard Cutler struggled, made bad decisions, and turned the ball over.  This is not a huge surprise, but what was to me was the lack of production of the receiving corp.  Forte was the only spark that existed for the Bears and his two scoring plays were enough to beat the Lions after a terrible rule was enforced to ROB Megatron of a game-winning TD.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - While this game was great for Nicks’ fantasy owners this week, I do not like what it means for him in terms of consistency.  Touchdowns are random and unpredictable, even more so in the Giants offense where Smith, Boss and, to a lesser extent, Manningham compete for red zone targets.  If you take away the touchdown plays, which were 26, 19 and 5 yard passes, Nicks has only one catch for 25 yards.  He will be a very good flex play down the stretch but I might look to trade Nicks at a high value soon.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Carson Palmer looked terrible in the first half Sunday, but once the Patriots had the game locked up and started to employ some prevent defense Ochocinco and the Bengals’ receivers were able to rack up some decent yardage.  I still fear that Palmer’s play will decrease Chad’s value, but if you drafted him he is likely going to be your #2 WR as long as he is healthy.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - He sure took advantage of Michael Bush’s absence but fantasy owners have been burned by Raiders running backs in the past so I would not start either McFadden or Bush yet.  With that said, you probably shouldn’t leave this guy unowned because he is making a strong case to the coaching staff to get the starting job after a good performance Sunday. No matter who it is, if either of these running backs are getting a majority of the work they will make a very viable starter for fantasy football owners.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots did the best thing they could to get Welker the confidence back that he needs to play at 100%.  Often times with severe knee injuries the player will not be confident enough in the knee to make strong cuts.  Welker would not be effective if he was hesitant and not running perfect routes.  Welker was able to pull in 8 catches and 2 TDs which is a hell of a way to get your confidence back, welcome back Wes.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – When you think about what makes an elite fantasy WR consistency has to be at the top of the list.  After watching a shining example of how inept the Cowboys offense really can be it is comforting to see that Austin was still incredibly productive.  Austin caught 10 of the 11 passes thrown at him for 146 yards and a TD, even with Dez Bryant being very active in the offense.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - Revis did not stay on Boldin all game and because of it he he was able to be a difference maker on offense for the Ravens in the toughest match up they will face offensively. Boldin was targeted 10 times last night hauling in 7 of them for 110 yards.  This was much better than what was reasonable for us to expect and has me excited to see what he will do throughout the season.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – It may not have looked like it on your fantasy score sheet unless you are in a PPR league, but Roddy White had a very good game for fantasy owners this week.  He had 111 receiving yards on a league-high 13 receptions.  The more important statistic from this game is his targets, he was targeting 23 times by Matt Ryan.  White is the entire Falcons passing offense until they reach the red zone, when Tony Gonzalez becomes relevant again.  With all these opportunities and his talent he is bound to be productive on a consistent basis.

Duds

Frank Gore, RB, SF - I don’t know what happened in this game, I am stunned.  I still can’t figure out if the Seahawks are for real, or the 49ers are not who I thought they would be.  Every 49er deserves to make this list, but Gore will take the fall as he was by far the biggest disappointment for fantasy owners this week.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Arian Foster stole the show.  No one would bother to pass when you can run the ball like that and keep Peyton Manning off the field.  Houston is still one of the top 3 passing offenses in football.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – See Andre Johnson.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – After only managing 18 rushing yards and losing a fumble Shonn Greene cost his fantasy owners a point this week and crushing Monday night dreams of many I am sure.  The fumbling is the biggest concern, because if it continues there will be zero goal line chances for Greene.

Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE – It appears that Jerome Harrison was not able to do enough to earn the starting job when he ended the season last year playing like one of the best running backs in the league.  I thought for sure that once Hardesty was put on IR Harrison would definitely be the guy, but Peyton Hillis is apparently going to cause a lot of guessing from week to week about who will have the best game for Cleveland.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - The best thing that could happen to this Bills offense is a healthy Fred Jackson.  Spiller does not have the ability to be an effective feature back in this league yet.  He will be valuable to the Bills in a change of pace role as the third down back.  A return to this role will increase his production in fantasy football as well, but if you have him you probably drafted him too high.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – I was sort of wrong about Jones, I did not think he would have a decent opportunity to be productive in this Jamaal Charles offense.  Jones got the same number of carries as Charles and did nothing with them.  If Haley can’t see that Charles needs to be the feature back then he is blind.  They were able to win, but it was close and did not need to be.  Jones has minimal value to me down the stretch unless there is an injury to Charles, but you can’t drop him yet.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN – With all the injuries, there could not be much more opportunity for Berrian and Harvin.  I can accept a bad game from a young player much more than Berrian who is one more bad week away from my dumplist.

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Vikings at Saints

There are no shortage of big games to kick off the 2010 NFL season and none are bigger than the Thursday night kickoff game.  The much-anticipated rematch of the NFC Championship game is sure to be one hell of a show with two high-powered offenses squaring off against opportunistic defenses.  To me this match up boils down to how much pressure the Vikings can get on Drew Brees with just the front four.  Last season the Vikings led the NFL with 48 sacks and they are facing the offensive line that had the fewest sacks allowed.  If the Vikings can get Brees uncomfortable in the pocket and leave seven people in coverage they should be able to control the ball with AP and get a few big plays on the Saints suspect secondary.  Brett Favre has significantly fewer weapons at his disposal this year, however if the Saints can limit the effectiveness of the ground game or force a few turnovers they should win this prime time slug-fest.  Pierre Thomas owners should look to their bench for an adequate replacement, but don’t look too far because with the release of Ladell Betts and only Reggie Bush to contend with Thomas should have a decent game… nothing too big is really possible facing last years best run defense and Bush getting the majority of the passes.  Look for big games from Marques Colston and Percy Harvin as each secondary has its issues defending against the deep ball.

Ravens at Jets

There is no denying how much Darelle Revis means to the Jets as they try to improve upon last year’s loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship game.  New York is missing its best vertical threat in Santonio Holmes and will need to rely on its ground game to win what is bound to be a fierce, defensive,  field position battle.  If Sanchez can keep from throwing interceptions to the Ravens defensive backfield that will be lacking ball-hawk Ed Reed, then the Jets should be able to win this in a close battle.  Anquan Boldin makes his debut in a Ravens uniform this week, but he is stuck on Revis Island and should not have a productive week compared to how he will do down the stretch.  I think Shonn Greene and Ray Rice owners should lower expectations for this week given the caliber of defense on the other side of the ball, but you are likely still going to be starting them anyways so no real change made there.

Bengals at Patriots

This match-up does not have quite the same appeal as the Vikings Saints offensive showdown, but for old school hard nosed football fans this could be the most exciting game of the week.  The Bengals swept their division by having a punishing run game and a stout, opportunistic defense.  The Patriots are a nightmare on third down and are never out of a game.  I think we will see a heavy dose of Cedric Benson on Sunday in an effort to keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field.  I have concerns about Wes Welker mentally having enough confidence in his knee to make the kinds of cuts that he used to.  He will be fine overall on the season  but is not likely to be quite as effective as he has been in recent years.  Still feel free to use him in your flex and WR2 in PPR leagues.  Ochocinco is still the only receiver on the Bengals worth starting this week, but big plays are certainly a possibility from TO, though they will be unpredictable and inconsistent.

Colts at Texans

The Texans are a better team than most people realize and starting the season at home against the Colts is their best chance at beating them in the regular season.  The Texans are 1-15 in franchise history against this team and the best way to convince these guys they can win the division is to beat the annual champions of it.  The Texans will be hoping to get Arian Foster the ball upwards of 20 times and Steve Slaton around 10 times by the end of the game.  If they can use their run game to supplement their explosive passing offense they should be able to remain competitive.  The Colts can’t reliably cover all the receiving threats that Matt Schaub has at his disposal this year and Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are exceedingly difficult to cover inside the red zone.  In order to win the Texans will need to force turnovers and find a way to pressure Manning without Brian Cushing, who is serving a suspension for violating the substance abuse policy.  The Colts are not a strong preseason team, and if they can’t get off to a fast start could find themselves on the ropes.  I think the Texans and Matt Schaub will play a solid game, but I never bet against Peyton Manning.  Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are both favorites of mine this week.

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The season is finally upon us and the Kickoff game on Thursday will be a great start, tune in.  While there are no shortage of great match ups this week I will get more into that later and go straight into the first Love and Hate lists of the 2010 season.

Love

Jerome Harrison (CLE) – Montario Hardesty’s injury increased the number of touches Harrison will see.  With a lot of carries and a bad opposing defense last season he finished the season strong enough to propel the BROWNS to a 4 game winning streak.

Ronnie Brown (MIA) – The Bills run defense was 30th in the league last year and the 4-3 is geared towards stopping the run.  The transition that Kelsay and Maybin are trying to make takes time.  There will be rough spots and while you may think Brown wont stay healthy all season… he is now.

Matt Forte (CHI) – The Lions are making strides to improve their franchise but on defense they still have plenty of work to do.  They are vulnerable to allowing big plays and this suits the Bears’ new offensive style very well.

Johnny Knox (CHI) – See Matt Forte.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – Derek Anderson brings a consistency to the offense that Leinart could not provide.  The upside is lower, because we know what Anderson can do and I do not expect him to come close to his one good year in ’07.

Michael Crabtree (SF) – He is one of the guys that I really think is going to come into his own this season.  I know some people are nervous because of the incident with Vernon Davis in camp, but I am not.  This guy is a play maker on game day. Since when does fantasy football worry too much about a wide receiver with an attitude problem?

Felix Jones (DAL) – The love for Felix Jones has gone a little too far in my opinion because there is absolutely no chance that we get 16 games out of him this season.  Swelling in his knee on the 2nd day of training camp is not what you want to see from your new lead running back.  He’s fine now and has the ability to break a big gain anytime you put the ball in his hands.

Philip Rivers (SD) – The Chiefs have weapons on offense but their defense has plenty of gaps in the secondary.  Rivers will be spreading the ball around and should be able to move the ball very effectively throughout the game.

Antonio Gates (SD) – see Philip Rivers.

Hate

Pierre Thomas (NO) – The stock on him rose w hen Ladell Betts was cut, he should see the goal line work.  Against this defense his rushing yards will be low, so unless he breaks a big gain in the receiving game his numbers will be modest at best.

Fred Jackson (BUF) – Gailey will likely lean on Lynch and Spiller a bit more this week to allow Jackson to get back to 100%, he will be fine come week 2 though.

Kevin Kolb (PHI) – If Reid is not willing to lean on the running game until Kolb gets in a rhythm this ball hawking secondary could cause some problems in Kolb’s first outing as the team’s leader.  I don’t see him having a huge game this week, I do not have too many concerns down the stretch however.

Shonn Greene (NYJ) – The Jets love to run the ball, but they won’t win this game that way.  This is going to be a slug fest and a field position battle and could be a preview of the AFC Championship game, unless Peyton Manning has his way.

Anquan Boldin (BAL) – Have you met Darrelle Revis? Nope, he used to be busy with Larry.  This is a cruel first test as a number one WR.

Justin Forsett (SEA) – Patrick Willis and the 49ers will be starting off with a win at the expense of Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle offense.

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1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Frank Gore
5. Ray Rice
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Shonn Greene
11. Jamaal Charles
12. Ryan Grant
13. Cedric Benson
14. Ryan Mathews
15. Pierre Thomas
16. LeSean McCoy
17. Beanie Wells
18. Jahvid Best
19. Jonathan Stewart
20. Joseph Addai
21. Knowshon Moreno
22. Ronnie Brown
23. Matt Forte
24. Arian Foster
25. Felix Jones
26. Ahmad Bradshaw
27. Fred Jackson
28. Justin Forsett
29. CJ Spiller
30. Jerome Harrison
31. Ricky Williams
32. Clinton Portis
33. Reggie Bush
34. Marion Barber
35. Michael Bush
36. Brandon Jacobs
37. Carnell Williams
38. LaDainian Tomlinson
39. Donald Brown
40. Thomas Jones
41. Chester Taylor
42. Montario Hardesty
43. Darren Sproles
44. Tim Hightower
45. Darren McFadden
46. Steve Slaton
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Fred Taylor
49. Kareem Huggins
50. Marshawn Lynch

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Frank Gore
5. Ray Rice
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Shonn Greene
10. Rashard Mendenhall
11. Ryan Mathews
12. Ryan Grant
13. Jamaal Charles
14. Cedric Benson
15. Beanie Wells
16. Pierre Thomas
17. Jonathan Stewart
18. LeSean McCoy
19. Knowshon Moreno
20. Joseph Addai
21. Javid Best
22. Ronnie Brown
23. Fred Jackson
24. Matt Forte
25. Felix Jones
26. Justin Forsett
27. Brandon Jacobs
28. Ricky Williams
29. Ben Tate
30. Ahmad Bradshaw
31. CJ Spiller
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Michael Bush
34. Reggie Bush
35. Marion Barber
36. Montario Hardesty
37. Clinton Portis
38. Carnell Williams
39. Darren McFadden
40. LaDanian Tomlinson
41. Thomas Jones
42. Laurence Maroney
43. Arian Foster
44. Donald Brown
45. Darren Sproles
46. Steve Slaton
47. Chester Taylor
48. Marshawn Lynch
49. Glen Coffee
50. Dexter McCluster

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Rex Ryan is apparently a genius.  Every move he has made has been the right one and assuming nothing insane happens with the Revis contract talks or the development of Mark Sanchez; the Jets are my favorite to win the division.  They will have the best defense in the NFL as well as fantasy football due to the complex blitzing scheme of mastermind Rex Ryan. If they can keep the best rushing attack in the league as well… then they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. LaDanian Tomlinson can be expected to pick up some goal line and third down work.

Top Fantasy Players

Shonn Greene – Given the level work given to Greene during the playoffs last year and the departure of all the other running backs on the team there is an immense amount of confidence in this young man.

Santonio Holmes – Sanchez needed a deep threat with better hands than Braylon Edwards, and that is exactly what Holmes will be… come week 5.  Shortly after being acquired by the Jets it was announced that Holmes would face a 4 game suspension due to violating the substance abuse policy.  This will make Holmes a great value in late rounds, but there is some risk that there is no chemistry between him and Sanchez so production could start slow as well as late.

Jets D/ST – If last year’s defense was any indication of what is to come then opposing offenses are in for some trouble.  The Jets were the best defense last year, and they added depth and talent to the roster.

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Round One
Pick 1 (1) – Chris Johnson: CJ has an absurd mix of power and speed that makes him a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  A guy his size and speed should have trouble between the tackles, but as he proved last season he does not.

Pick 2 (2) – Adrian Peterson: The emergence of Chris Johnson is not why I rank Peterson at number two.  Peterson is in my opinion the most complete running back in the league, but has had some issues with fumbles and is seeing fewer touchdowns with Favre pulling the trigger.

Pick 3 (3) – Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD has a similar skill set to Johnson, but has a bit of trouble running up the middle.  He is a very capable goal line back due to his elusiveness, but does not have the supporting cast to have a breakout year.

Pick 4 (4) – Frank Gore: The Niners had an excellent draft, they appear to be lining up behind Alex Smith and opted to bolster their offensive line in a big way with Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati.  Iupati is one of the most athletic guards I have seen come out of college in a while and will do an excellent job pulling to seal the corner for Gore this year.  The Niners also appear to have rededicated themselves to a physical smash mouth style that matches their coach Mike Singletary.

Pick 5 (5) – Ray Rice: This guy came out of nowhere, and I do not expect him to be the next Matt Forte at all.  Until draft day Rice was my number four back.  After adding a deep threat and much needed talent at the WR position with Anquan Boldin, the Ravens ensured that they will still see consistent production from Rice.  It will be exceedingly difficult to stack eight in the box to stop this guy.

Pick 6 (6) – Michael Turner: Turner has dropped a fair few spots from last season, but it has little to do with him.  The emergence of the 49ers and Ravens on the offensive side of the ball are the primary reasons why Turner is not fourth on this list.  The injury at the end of last year certainly does not help, but I’m not going to downgrade him for it until he proves it was not an isolated incident.

Pick 7 (7) – Ronnie Brown: The Dolphins have a more balanced attack now with Marshall at wide receiver, but Henne is still unproven and the one-two punch of Brown Williams is still going to be the driving force of this offense.  Brown could see better productivity with a passing game to balance the defense.

Pick 8 (8) – Drew Brees: Yes, the Saints lost some talent on both sides of the ball, but regardless of the situation the only player that was always are the center of their success was Brees.  He repeatedly rallied the Saints whether it be the fourth quarter of a game, or after losing to the lowly Buccaneers, and then needing to make a playoff run.

Pick 9 (9) – Andre Johnson: The Texans have their issues, and it is impossible to know what Coach Kubiak is thinking when he puts Arian Foster or Ryan Moats on the field instead of Steve Slaton.  With that said they are a playoff caliber team with a very efficient passing game.  Johnson is the most consistent receiver in fantasy football.

Pick 10 (10) – DeAngelo Williams: With the question at quarter back and the best tandem of running backs in the league to lean on you can expect the Panthers to do just that.  Use the talent at the Running Back position to develop either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen into their Quarterback of the future.

Pick 11 (11) – Steven Jackson: He may be on the decline, but during a 1-15 season Jackson played through injury and was there for every game giving all the effort he had.  He can still be my  first round pick without a doubt.

Pick 12 (12) – Rashard Mendenhall: It is worth noting that the option of taking Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning was available, but you cannot snub the RB position like that with the last pick. Mendenhall is likely to see an increased workload during Big Ben’s suspension, and he will remain the feature back the rest of the season.

Round 2
Pick 13 (12) – Reggie Wayne: This is the only wide receiver on the best passing offense in the AFC that we know their spot on the depth chart.  Whether Gonzalez or Garcon gets the number two job is still unknown and very possibly subject to change.  Wayne has been with Manning for a long time and has developed into an elite receiver.

Pick 14 (11) – Aaron Rodgers: If you’re scratching your head, then you need to look at the stats from the last two seasons.  Rodgers is likely going to be the highest scoring fantasy QB this season, but Brees is likely to have more passing yards.

Pick 15 (10) – Peyton Manning: Comes down to Moss or Manning here, and with Brady and the Patriots on the decline, Manning is the safe pick and the right one here.

Pick 16 (9) – Ryan Grant: Not taking a running back in the first round means you have to take the best one available to you in the second.

Pick 17 (8) – Cedric Benson: Carson Palmer finally has the best receiving core of his career, and he can’t use it because his career is over.  Benson will see 30 carries a game this year just like last year, as long as he is healthy.

Pick 18 (7) – Randy Moss: Despite his teams fall from the elite, they are still a Playoff quality team with great coaching, and more than enough experience to make a deep playoff run.

Pick 19 (6) – Pierre Thomas: Bush will never be an every down back, and Bell is not there to vulture red zone touches.

Pick 20 (5) – Miles Austin: Austin’s productivity was among the best last season, and considering he did not even start until week 5.  I would hardly be surprised if Austin ended up the top fantasy WR by the end of the season.

Pick 21 (4) – Shonn Greene: The Jets showed that they trust and believe in this young guy the way they used him in the playoffs.  Since Rex Ryan has yet to make a decision that didn’t work out for him, I am going to trust him.

Pick 22 (3) – Tom Brady: Brady has not fallen off.  It took a little to recover from his season long injury, but he’s back.  The difference is the team around him is not as good as it has been.

Pick 23 (2) – Larry Fitzgerald: Larry is still the most talented wide receiver in the league, and it only takes one play for a receiver to have a good day for you.  Fitz will remain a red zone matchup nightmare.

Pick 24 (1) – Joseph Addai: Towards the end of his career, but not there yet.  He will not have quite the year he did last year but he should be close.

Round 3
Pick 25 (1) – Vincent Jackson
Pick 26 (2) – Phillip Rivers
Pick 27 (3) – Roddy White
Pick 28 (4) – Matt Schaub
Pick 29 (5) – Beanie Wells
Pick 30 (6) – Tony Romo
Pick 31 (7) – Jamaal Charles
Pick 32 (8) – Ryan Matthews
Pick 33 (9) – Clinton Portis
Pick 34 (10) – LeSean McCoy
Pick 35 (11) – Ricky Williams
Pick 36 (12) – Joe Flacco

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This is an interesting time to do some scouting very early for next year’s fantasy football team and now is the best time to start taking notes on players that made the Playoffs.

Among the biggest stand-out teams in this year’s playoffs are the New York Jets.  The player everyone will want to know about is Mark Sanchez, and I don’t see any way that Sanchez is a viable fantasy option outside of very deep formats.  The forecast that I see for him is similar to that of Joe Flacco.  His performance this season was streaky, but he made plays when it mattered most and he will continue to do so.  I think the Jets are likely to repeat a playoff berth and possibly even win the division.  With that said the player I see making the biggest impact on fantasy rosters next season is Shonn Greene.  The way Ryan and the Jets used him at the end of the season led me to believe that Thomas Jones was worn out.  I would expect Greene to take the majority of the work starting early next year so that Jones is able to contribute the entire season.  I envision Jones getting most the short yardage work and splitting goal-line carries with Greene, who will take up the primary rushing role.  Braylon Edwards will likely remain a Jet going into next season but when you think about drafting him think about the pass that bounced off his face mask in the the open field against Buffalo, because no matter who throws the ball Edwards has a problem with drops.

Another team that I felt stood out was the Baltimore Ravens.  With how young Flacco is it would be hard for them to be playing instead of Manning and the Colts, but all this post-season time he is seeing early in his career will help him to develop into a premiere QB in the league.  He may not yet be a starting Fantasy Football QB but that is not much his fault… If the Ravens can get some deeper talent at WR he will end up top 10 at his position next season.  Ray Rice never slowed down, all season.  He gained respect among Fantasy owners every time he touched the football this season and the Playoffs was no different.  He is a threat in both dimensions of the offense and will mature with the rest of that offensive unit.  I also respect the Ravens because of their Defense, which at times struggled and faced injuries to big play-makers but they kept Flacco and their offense in almost every game and they will lead the Ravens back to the Playoffs again next year.

The biggest disappointment this post season was the Cincinnati Bungals.  They swept their division by playing smart and disciplined in all three phases and with a punishing run game.  These are the most important elements to playoff football, but they still broke down at the end and took an early exit against the Jets.  I saw great things come from the Bengals all season and after the unfortunate passing of their teammate, they never quite seemed the same.  Not that this is why, but it definitely crushed the momentum they had built for themselves and following that incident Cedric Benson was ROBBED of Comeback Player of the Year and they were snubbed by the Pro Bowl.  All these distractions broke the focus of the team down and cost them a chance to make a deep run into the playoffs.  Next season they are hopefully able to retain focus deep into the year and Palmer has one last shot to win a Super Bowl because after that they may need a new QB.

Hard to call losing with such a profound effort a disappointment but I expected the Packers to go deep this year, not out in the first round.  It made for a fitting end to Warner’s career who is too often forgotten as one of the most incredible football players of our time, but I view it like the Packers do, a loss, and a big one.  Rodgers has yet to step up and really fill the shoes of Favre, and lasting long enough to beat him (or even face him) in the Playoffs would have done just that.  Next year will be another phenomenal fantasy campaign for Rodgers and a fair few Packers, but that is little consolation if they are one and done in the post season again next season.

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