Pickups

Earnest Graham, RB, TB – Graham did a great job filling in for Blount this week and solidified his spot in this article today by gaining 131 yards Sunday. I expect Blount back, but even as a backup Graham has value in PPR formats. Graham is 4th in the NFL in receptions among RB’s, which puts him above Chris Johnson, Fred Jackson and Ray Rice. Take note PPR players.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Houston is not the same team without Andre Johnson but as I thought, Jacoby Jones is the guy you want to take a chance on in Johnson’s absence. This week Jones was able to haul in 4 catches on 7 targets for 73 yards and a score. This is more than acceptable for a flex play.

Dallas Clark, TE, IND – Clark was targeted 7 times in this game and managed 53 yards and a score. Losing a fumble kept him out of double digit points, but I think he still needs to be owned. Without Manning he is no better than a top 10 guy, but last I checked that makes him a weekly starter and a lot of people dropped him too soon.

Danario Alexander, WR, STL – I’ve made my choice for which Rams receiver I would want to start should I need to. It’s nothing more than apparent trust with Bradford either. While three different receivers were targeted exactly 10 times, Alexander hauled in 6 of them for a team-high 91 yards receiving.

Arrelious Benn, WR, TB – The Buccs made a statement when they beat the Saints in Tampa on Sunday afternoon. After being dismantled by the 49ers last week, many people (myself included) were questioning whether they would have what it takes to be a playoff contender late into the season. The answer is in: maybe. Tampa is a young and dangerous team, they beat an NFC powerhouse with a total team effort. Back up RB Earnest Graham proved he has fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues by doing a great job filling in for LeGarrette Blount. The defense intercepted Brees 3 times and Tampa put themselves on top of the NFC South. Benn has made some explosive plays and is worth a roster spot to me in some deep formats.

Dump List

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I do a lot of warning about Raiders receivers lately. I am OK with picking one up after a big game if you have an open roster spot, but don’t not pick up someone on my pickups list to save room for any Raider receiver not named Jacoby Ford.

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO – Sproles has been the surprise stud of the Saints’ running backs and with Ingram handling most of the traditional carries, Thomas just doesn’t have enough work left over to be much of a factor. Unless someone gets hurt, you can’t risk starting Thomas.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, NE – He’s still owned in almost half of leagues. Really? When will you guys finally give up!? It’s definitely time to drop this once great receiver.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – Still owned in a quarter of all leagues. Jackie Battle is the guy and Jones is done. McCluster has the 3rd down back duties and I wouldn’t even start Jones if Battle went down for the season next week.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Cutler actually had time to throw this week and Knox STILL couldn’t get it done. I’m more than OK with dropping Knox at this point… I recommend it.

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Pickups

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – The though of drafting Newton was absurd to me a week ago, but after a rookie debut record 422 yards and two TDs, he MUST be owned.  I won’t pretend like I thought there was a chance that Newton would blow up at any point this season, but regardless of who your starting QB is, your backup spot is about upside. Newton has the potential to be a HUGE surprise as a top10 QB on the season and with bye weeks a bit away, feel free to drop your backup on the off-chance you get to trade Newton away for a starting WR or RB.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – This rookie receiver for the Packers tied an NFL record for longest play with is 108 yard kick return for a TD in the kickoff game on Thursday night. I didn’t think of him as much of a sleeper before he demonstrated how dynamic of a playmaker he is due to the resigning of James Jones and the lack of a retirement announcement from Donald Driver.  We can be sure that the Packers will be looking for ways to get the ball in Cobb’s hands now and he is worth a spot on your bench to see how he develops over the next few weeks.

Scott Chandler, TE, BUF – I’ve gotten a few questions about Chandler already as a Buffalonian.  People have expected me to have inside info about this guy but honestly, I don’t have much.  He had, I believe, just one career reception before this 5 catch 63 yard performance in which he also caught two TD passes. The TE position is pretty wide open and since there are only 4 or 5 of them who I am comfortable starting on a week-to-week basis, I think Chandler is a risky pickup and start this week.  The reason im willing to do it after just one good game is because of the match-up against Oakland being decent.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Kevin Walter hurt his collar bone in week 1 and I believe he will miss some extended time early in this season.  With Jones at number two on the Texan’s depth chart, I think he is going to see enough targets that he will be worth a shot in deeper leagues and as an injury/bye week fill-in.

Cadillac Williams, RB, STL – If your draft didn’t pan out at the RB position, Williams may make a good fill-in next week as Steven Jackson appears to be unlikely to play in week 2 against Carolina. He has no value when Jackson is active though in my opinion, so don’t think of it as an long-term solution.

Robert Meachem, WR, NO – I don’t like Saints receivers for fantasy purposes. A lot of people think the Colston injury is going to open up room for either Meachem or Henderson, but the absence of Lance Moore is the most intriguing absence to me. Colston was best utilized as a goal line target and none of these receivers can fill that void in my opinion, so that work will go to Jimmy Graham. Meachem will benefit from increased targets in the short to intermediate passing game where both Colston and Moore were used.   I think when Moore is back, Meachem and Henderson are very probably not going to be at all reliable enough to start again.  Until then, don’t leave them on free agency for an opponent to use.

Fred Davis, TE, WAS – Rex Grossman impressed a lot of people this weekend.  He looked like an effective leader of the offense and led his team to a win against their division rival New York Giants. I don’t think Davis is as good a pick up as Chandler, but if you had Cooley and there isn’t much talent on waivers, I would probably grab Davis.

Dump List

Peyton Manning, QB, IND – This one is fairly obvious but I don’t believe in over reacting to a poor week 1 and dropping someone because of one bad or mediocre performance so I have to have SOMETHING for this list. If you don’t have an IR spot and aren’t in a keeper league, there is no reason to hold Manning any longer. He will not likely see the field this season unless the Colts are somehow still in the playoff hunt late.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – Dexter McCluster seemed to be the secondary back in week 1 for the Chiefs as Jones only saw two carries throughout the game.  His age made him a late round pick in drafts and I’m convinced that it is now the Jamaal Charles show in KC.

James Jones, WR, GB – Jones was, I thought, no lower than 4th on the depth chart at receiver for the Packers.  This made him an ownable player to sit on your bench but with the emergence of Randall Cobb in week 1, I see no reason to hold Jones any longer.

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Studs

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – Why so serious?!  The Joker made a big statement in a phenomenal 2nd half comeback against the Batman and Robin led Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.  Johnson scored three TDs in the 2nd half to push the Bills to their biggest comeback in 13 years.  He is fast becoming an exciting young talent and has officially reached must-start status as this Bills offense is on a roll.  Also, in this career-performance, Johnson had his face painted as the Joker and wore a t-shirt with “Why So Serious” written on it underneath his jersey and showed it off after his first TD.  Lower your expectations for Week 12 against the Steelers, but unless you drafted really well… you’re probably going to be starting Johnson anyways.

Greg Jennings, WR, GB – Jennings had his best game of the season this week.  He was on the receiving end of 3 of the 4 TD passes thrown by Aaron Rodgers and he totaled 152 yards as well.  You should be just fine relying on him down the stretch as he and the Packer’s offense appear to be firing on all cylinders.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - Big Ben had a slow start in this storied rivalry, but ended with one of his most productive games of the year and the top scorer of the week in standard formats.  He also was able to show off his toughness in this physical battle by taking a punch to the face from Richard Seymour.  Ben is a top 10 QB for the rest of the season and if you weren’t able to get an elite QB, then you should feel fine using him as your starter the rest of the way and in the playoffs.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - MJD looked like he is in the prime of his career this week, he totaled 220 yards which included the longest reception of his career.  He had a slow start this year due to starting with an injury, but the Jaguars keep finding a way to win games and the fact that they will be in the playoff hunt means that he will remain the feature of their offense.  Jones-Drew is a starting running back from here on out and will remain in my top10 regardless of the match up he has in any particular week.

Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ - The Jets have been giving fans their money’s worth for the past few weeks as they have managed to come from behind and win games in the dying seconds or overtime for three weeks in a row.  A big part of the Jets success has been Santonio Holmes who, when the game is on the line, is the favorite target of Mark Sanchez.  This big performance was relatively expected against the league’s worst pass defense, but you can count on Holmes being a top 20 guy and a great WR2 for fantasy owners the rest of the season.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC - The Chiefs are back to their old insane way of dividing carries between their two-headed rushing attack.  Jamaal Charles is the one with all the talent and production, but Jones still sees enough carries to make us all shake our heads and wonder what Charles could do if he saw 20-25 touches.  In his defense, Jones performed quite well with his 15 carries.  He totaled 71 yards and scored twice in this game, so he remains a flex play.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – On Monday night, Tolbert had a career high 111 yards rushing and scored a TD.  He was able to compliment his tough running-style with 42 yards receiving.  He demonstrated an ability to read defenses and find holes that Ryan Mathews was not able to show all season.  Tolbert is likely to remain a key part of the offense even if Mathews comes back and could develop into a great flex option with the balance of a Philip Rivers led offense.

Duds

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The inconsistency of the Vikings offense was not kind to Harvin this week.  Childress lost the respect of his players a while ago and hopefully Leslie Frazier is able to get them back on the right track… otherwise Harvin owners will lose their confidence in him and relegate him to a flex play at best.  Personally, I see no reason to panic as Sidney Rice should be able to have an impact when the Vikings aren’t playing a team as good as the Packers.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – Boldin only managed 29 receiving yards this week, but since he lost a fumble… he put up zero points for fantasy owners.  The issue here is inconsistency, owners will not be able to trust a guy that has zero point weeks going into the playoffs.  Until he is able to demonstrate his big play ability, he will be at best a flex play.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – There has been a lot of talk recently about Bradshaw’s recent fumbling issues.  I do not share any concern about him losing his starting job, but with the receiving corp quickly depleting due to injury… Bradshaw just might drop significantly in production as they are likely to turn to a heavy running style.  Keep him in your starting lineup for now, but be concerned and make plans in case something more develops while the Giants try and get back on the winning track.

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Even though he was only able to manage 15 receiving yards, the 9ers offense struggled in this game.  I don’t have any long-term concerns just yet, not after ONE bad game… but if they struggle next week too, it will be time to worry.

Randy Moss, WR, TEN - I went from excited about the Titans, to terrified.  Another 0 catch game from Moss means that you can’t start him… especially not with Rusty Smith at QB.

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Question 1: Asked by rwfleener

I figure on starting Larry Fitzy but I need to start 1 more reciever which one would you start, Randy Moss or Hines Ward?

Answer

Well, one thing is for sure… Drama doesn’t impact Moss’s fantasy points.  Vince Young has been a phenomenal passer when healthy this year.  He has seen a lot of pressure since teams were stacking 8 in the box to stop Chris Johnson, but now with the presence of Moss that won’t happen near as often. I am a firm believer in the Titans since they have made this trade, if Young can stay on the field for the rest of the season then the Titans will win their division. Moss also has a history of strong outings right after changing teams, so he is worth the risk here. You can see my original answer and the answers of others on Fandemic.

Question 2: Asked by @thebudmonster

I need 1 player at wr, rb & flex? dez, bowe, s. moss, s. smith(south), breaston, t. jones, r. brown.

Answer

Alright, well for your RB I am leaning towards Thomas Jones.  Denver has not been a strong run defense this year and for some insane reason, Todd Haley and Charlie Weiss keep giving him the ball.  Logic says he should see less carries with how bad he was last week, but this is the 15th time I have said that in a post so I expect him to get at least 50% of the carries again this week.  Dez Bryant is essentially the entire running game of the Cowboys in the past few weeks.  They have been using him on a lot of very short routes and bubble screens to substitute for their complete inability to run the ball.  And for any other owners out there, I would put him just outside the top 10 in a PPR format this week.  For your flex go with Santana Moss.  He has been very effective this year and with Vick playing the best football of his career, the Redskins are going to be down and throwing to try and stay in the game.

Question 3: Asked by latinangel5439

Matt Schaub vs Jags or Kyle Orton vs KC Chiefs??

Answer

I have seen a lot of Matt Schaub questions this week and they all are coming from owners who are frustrated and have completely given up on him. I can’t blame you guys, but the numbers don’t lie.  The Jaguars are allowing an average of 18.5 fantasy points per game to opposing Quarterbacks.  With the Texans being the only team in the league to allow more, this should be a very high-scoring and passing oriented game.  It would be a mistake to sit Schaub, since Andre Johnson alone could easily get 150 yards and 2 TDs by himself and he won’t be the only one to catch the ball. You can see my original answer and the answers of others on Fandemic.

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With six teams on the Bye this week, there are some serious concerns for fantasy owners.  The RB and WR positions are a mess and there are some difficult decisions to make.  With that said, there are also some great match ups.  If you are doing any Football Betting this weekend, or just a pick ‘em style league like the one on ESPN… you will need to do your research in order to be successful.

Question 1: Asked by Staup

Which TE should I start, Kellen Winslow @ Arizona or Visanthe Shiancoe @ NE?

Answer

Well, you got two pretty solid options with two good match ups.  I would go with Shiancoe.    If you saw the Vikings game last week, then you saw the Shiancoe TD get called back.  This play was made possible by the presence of Moss and Harvin on the outside.  This left the middle wide open for Shiancoe and it was really a very clear catch with no defenders to contest him.  If the ref that went under the hood wasn’t insane it would have stuck. This is exactly the benefit that Moss brings to this offense, he attracts enough attention that the other play makers get left with a lot of man coverage.  You can read my original answer, as well as others on fandemic.

Question 2: Asked by jpcase1218

Who should I start? Cedric Benson or Thomas Jones?

Answer

I LOVE Thomas Jones this week.  He is going to be able to play his slow-style and still see over 5 yards per carry.  The Chiefs have zero reason to drop back to pass at all on Sunday with their two-headed running back system going against Buffalo’s 32nd ranked run defense.  However… Benson is the feature back and there are very few of them in the NFL.  With Jamaal Charles soaking up the big plays and (most likely) the majority of the carries I would play it safe and go with Benson.  Benson gets a guaranteed 20 carries per game and to beat the Dolphins you have to run effectively (this is why Pittsburgh almost blew it last week).  You can see my original answer and the answers of others on fandemic.

Question 3: Asked by Andy

I have bye week issues this week and Jonathan Stewart is a possible fill-in.  What will his value be if DeAngelo Williams does not play this week?

Answer

Well, as the lead back his value certainly goes up.  Last year Stewart was a dynamic change of pace back and split carries with Williams.  The struggles of the Panthers offense has been in the passing game and therefore, the success of either Panthers RB will depend on how effective the passing game is.  Thus far this year Stewart has barely been able to cling to a 3 yards per carry average and has been a huge disappointment for owners who drafted him.  With a match-up like the Rams, if Williams is active he is a good start, but he still may not crack the top 20.  I would stay away from him if I could, but depending on what ‘bye week issues’ means you may not have a choice.

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Love

Peyton Manning, QB, IND - How can you NOT love Manning, especially against the leagues worst overall defense? With the running game being so banged and the Texans pass defense being absolutely abysmal, Manning could easily top 400 yards in his effort to avenge their Week 1 loss.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Matthew Stafford is a MUCH better QB than Shaun Hill and Megatron was able to keep his value up in the absence of the team’s franchise quarterback.  Lions fans should be excited to see what they can do with Stafford back in the lineup… and fantasy owners should also be excited about the increase in upside for all their Lions players.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – The Panthers have a pretty nice schedule coming up and that has me excited to see how their offense is able to rebound.  But, if Williams can’t get it done this week against the Rams then I will get very nervous very quickly.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – I don’t understand why Todd Haley is so invested in using Jones extensively in the running game when Jamaal Charles is clearly a much more dynamic play maker that would make the most of the additional carries.  With that said, it is not my job to understand it… just to analyze it.  As long as Jones is looking to get 15 carries against the Bills’ terrible run defense, then I love his chances at having a very productive game as a #2 RB for his fantasy owners.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – Foster has lit the league on fire thus far this season.  This week he will be going against a Colts defense allowing an average of 20 fantasy points per game and he is a must start for your #1 RB spot this week.  This is the same match up that led to Foster putting up 231 yards and three TDs (41 fantasy points) in Week 1.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT - In the past two games with their starting QB back, the Steelers receivers have been on fire.  Ward is a possession receiver so his upside is less than his teammate Mike Wallace, but he will prove to be much more consistent throughout the season.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL - Who has two thumbs and isn’t worried about Jon Kitna for this week? THIS GUY!  I love every WR when they play against the Jaguars and until Kitna proves to be completely inept, I am going to assume that he is not.  A veteran QB should have very little issue hitting an elite receiver that is wide-open all day.  Austin may no longer be a top 10 WR, but with this match up he still is.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – If its a PPR league, you should still be using Welker as a top 15 option and a must-start… but even in standard leagues it is not time to panic yet.  Minnesota’s secondary is banged up and the offense will not be the same even if Favre continues his consecutive start streak this week.  With two fractures in his ankle, there is little chance Favre will be able to push off as firmly on his throws and pick up the long 3rd down conversions he usually can.  This will lead to more time on the field for the Patriots offense and opportunities for their receivers.

Tony Moeaki, TE, KC - The Bills are allowing an average of 13 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and Moeaki has made some great catches this year.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET - I like him for the same reason that I liked Matt Forte last week.  That prediction backfired, but the Redskins still allow a lot of yardage and are currently ranked 31st in overall defense.  With Best being involved in both the running and passing game the stage is set for a big game like we have not seen since week two… which was the last time he found the end zone.

Hate

Owen Daniels, TE, HOU – The Colts are so bad at defending the run that teams tend to focus on that in order to keep Peyton Manning off the field.

Danny Woodhead, RB, NE - The front seven of the Vikings is among the best in the NFL and I don’t see the Patriots trusting Woodhead with the ball in the red zone.  Given he is in a committee situation there is a better option for this week on your team somewhere.

Vince Young, QB, TEN – The Chargers allow just over 7 fantasy points per week to opposing Quarterbacks and even if active Young will not be 100%.  Stay away if possible this week.

Sam Bradford, QB, STL – The Panthers rank 24th against the run and 4th against the pass. You tell me what your game plan would be against the Panthers, but I am guessing it would include a lot of Steven Jackson.

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Vikings at Jets

The Headline trade made yesterday morning to send Randy Moss back to the Vikings as they make their last ditch effort to regain their offensive firepower they had last season.  With Favre only in town for one year and the passing offense being pretty bad, Randy Moss is sure to provide a spark.  Every time Moss has changed teams he has used the fresh start to its maximum potential.  Sidney Rice will be returning from injury and the Vikings will likely have the best receiving corp in the NFL.  For now, they have to face the best defense in the league and Moss has to lineup against his ex-division rival Darelle Revis.  Expect this to be a low scoring game given the caliber of defense on each team.  Players like Moss, Keller and Peterson have to be started anyways, but if you have viable options instead of LT, Favre, Holmes and Greene you should use them.  I like the home team to squeak out a win with a healthy Revis shutting down Moss and the Vikings looking like they did before the bye for just one more game.

Chiefs at Colts

The Colts are pissed, they must be sick of hearing them mentioned along with the phrase “Super Bowl Hangover” and after losing to the third longest field goal in NFL history you can expect them to try and put on a show.  The Chiefs are the last undefeated team left in the league after their early bye week.  Even with the extra time to prepare, the challenge is the Colts at home and I don’t see them managing an upset.  The abysmal Colts run defense will allow Jamaal Charles and, to a lesser extent, Thomas Jones to have plenty of value to their fantasy owners in a losing effort.  Despite the Chiefs success thus far, Matt Cassell is not a quality QB and they will not be able to hold the division lead for too long.  Pierre Garcon participated fully in practice on Wednesday and with him back in the lineup Austin Collie will need to have a big day in order to keep the attention of Peyton Manning and hopefully the number 2 spot on the depth chart.

Titans at Cowboys

Both of these teams are at the bottom of competitive divisions.  The Cowboys are part of a wide-opening competition where every win is crucial and the Titans have to compete with the Colts and the newly-dominant Texans. Whichever team loses this game will probably go into crisis-mode and do something in an effort to shake things up.  Last season a mid-season shake up at QB led to a huge win streak to come back from an 0-6 start to be a part of the playoff hunt at the end of the season for Vince Young and the Titans.  Both teams are playoff contenders and this just may be the best game of the week.  I like the Cowboys to win a high-scoring game given their home field advantage as well as the match up of Miles Austin against the Titans secondary.  The Titans have allowed two straight 300 yard passers and Romo will also have a great game.  Don’t take a chance on a Cowboys RB or Titans WR unless you have no other choice, but Chris Johnson and Vince Young should do just fine if you are counting on them.

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Love

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – If you drafted Flacco I understand your frustration, but he IS playing against the Browns.  And really, he did well in week 1 considering he was facing the Jets.  Both Flacco and Boldin are pretty safe bets to have a big game this week.  Don’t let one bad game lead you to leave points on your bench.

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO – Like I said on twitter after Reggie Bush’s injury, I always hate to see an injury but as a Pierre Thomas owner I am pretty pleased with how much work Thomas is likely to receive in the absence of Bush.  Based off of the anticipated increase in both rushes and receptions as well as how effective Thomas was against a great Vikings run defense I expect Thomas to be a top 10 back while Bush is inactive.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL - Despite the massive concerns I have for the Cowboys running backs you can not really come up with a legitimate reason for why Austin will not succeed.  In the past two weeks the Cowboys have gone win-less and have struggled with penalties, protecting the QB and especially running the football.  Austin still leads the league in receiving yards and is currently the only consistent fantasy threat on the Cowboys.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - Vick at the helm turns this offense into a more balanced attack.  Vick will be able to draw the attention of the linebackers on defense and make them more vulnerable to counters and misdirection.  This week the Eagles have a pretty good match-up vs a struggling Jaguars team that does not have an overwhelming defense and is trying to get past a problem with turnovers.

Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS – Even though you probably drafted McNabb as your backup QB he is set to have a great week.  I rank him at 11th so if you are in a deep format or a 2 QB league McNabb has been a diamond in the rough thus far.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Despite losing the game the 49ers re-enforced my preseason opinion of the team.  Alex Smith was effective and showed poise in the pocket under pressure late in the fourth quarter.  The Chiefs do not have as good of a defense as the Saints do and with it being much more likely that the 49ers dictate the pace of the game you can be confident that Gore will be given plenty of opportunities.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – With a 2nd good match-up for DJax and the Eagles combined with how well Vick has been performing it would be pretty foolish to sit a guy like Jackson that is such a dangerous weapon.  The balance of the Eagles offense will provide some chances to both Jackson and Maclin to face one on one man coverage and have a very productive week.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Some fantasy owners are not all that pleased with the performance of Mendenhall so far this season and I don’t quite get it.  Even though it took going to overtime in week 1 to get him in the end zone, it’s not like that doesn’t count.  He is the only consistent fantasy threat  on the Steelers offense and is currently 4th in the league in rushing yards.

Fred Taylor, RB, NE - With Faulk out for the season and Maroney shipped off the Denver Fred Taylor and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are about to get an increased workload.  It makes sense that Taylor gets the lead back carries with BJGE taking care of the third down and receiving work.  Against a great match-up at home against Buffalo Taylor may just have his best game of the season.

Roddy White, WR, ATL - Roddy White is the only reliable receiving target for Matt Ryan and currently leads the league in both receptions and targets.  Since White cannot get penalized for sacks or interceptions he is a great start this week.  The Falcons will not be as effective as the 49ers where at controlling the Saints defense with the running game and will need to abandon it for an aerial assault in an attempt to stay in the game.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN – I expect that the Vikings are able to win their first game of the season in rather convincing fashion against the Lions in week 3.  The Lions are very vulnerable to the big play and with a lack of reliable receiving threats the smart money is on Shiancoe to lead the team in receiving.

Hate

Ricky Williams, RB, MIA - With Revis likely to miss the game this week I expect the Dolphins to lean heavy on the passing attack this week.  This was how the Ravens were able to beat the Jets.  With limited work to share and a stout Jets run defense there is not much room for fantasy value from the Dolphins running game this week.  Smart money is on Brown to be more productive, not Williams.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC - Thomas Jones is so beloved by the Chiefs coaching staff that they are willing to risk losing a close game and limit their offensive production just to feed him the ball.  Jones is not done in this league, but he should be be getting MORE carries than Jamaal Charles that is absurd.  It is not a matter of being greedy for fantasy points it is about production and yards per carry average.  Jones is too slow to be effective against a Patrick Willis lead 49ers defense.

Carnell Williams, RB, TB – I don’t care if the Buccaneers are 2-0 or how good Josh Freeman has been playing.  The Steelers defense has been dominating opponents even without a balanced offense to help them out.  They held Chris Johnson to 53 all purpose yards and forced 7 turnovers.  You have to ask yourself how good the Buccaneers really are have only beaten the Browns and an apparently bad Panthers team.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - I have been big on Garcon for the past two weeks and have been disappointed both times.  If you have any other viable options it is probably time to use them until Garcon earns the trust of Peyton Manning all over again.

Terrell Owens, WR, CIN - As I thought Palmer has looked pretty bad so far this season.  In order to win games and make a playoff push this season the Bengals will need to lean on the running game and while Ochocinco has been able to be productive this far, this offense cannot sustain two consistent receivers for fantasy football.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – See Carnell Williams.

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Studs

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – This was an easy choice to top this list.  Foster was able to propel the Houston Texans past Peyton Manning and the Colts for a great start in their bid to win this division.  I do not think there is any way for Foster to sustain the production of a number 1 fantasy RB for an entire season.  He is however set to be one of the best number 2 RB’s in the league for his fantasy owners due to his ability to make an impact in the passing game as well. As always Coach Kubiak is going to reserve the right to lose his mind and not use him enough to be very effective, but after Sunday Even Kubiak will realize that Foster should be the guy.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI - This was an ugly game with a terrible ending, but not for Matt Forte and the Bears.  In a game where the Bears should have been lighting up the scoreboard Cutler struggled, made bad decisions, and turned the ball over.  This is not a huge surprise, but what was to me was the lack of production of the receiving corp.  Forte was the only spark that existed for the Bears and his two scoring plays were enough to beat the Lions after a terrible rule was enforced to ROB Megatron of a game-winning TD.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - While this game was great for Nicks’ fantasy owners this week, I do not like what it means for him in terms of consistency.  Touchdowns are random and unpredictable, even more so in the Giants offense where Smith, Boss and, to a lesser extent, Manningham compete for red zone targets.  If you take away the touchdown plays, which were 26, 19 and 5 yard passes, Nicks has only one catch for 25 yards.  He will be a very good flex play down the stretch but I might look to trade Nicks at a high value soon.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Carson Palmer looked terrible in the first half Sunday, but once the Patriots had the game locked up and started to employ some prevent defense Ochocinco and the Bengals’ receivers were able to rack up some decent yardage.  I still fear that Palmer’s play will decrease Chad’s value, but if you drafted him he is likely going to be your #2 WR as long as he is healthy.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - He sure took advantage of Michael Bush’s absence but fantasy owners have been burned by Raiders running backs in the past so I would not start either McFadden or Bush yet.  With that said, you probably shouldn’t leave this guy unowned because he is making a strong case to the coaching staff to get the starting job after a good performance Sunday. No matter who it is, if either of these running backs are getting a majority of the work they will make a very viable starter for fantasy football owners.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots did the best thing they could to get Welker the confidence back that he needs to play at 100%.  Often times with severe knee injuries the player will not be confident enough in the knee to make strong cuts.  Welker would not be effective if he was hesitant and not running perfect routes.  Welker was able to pull in 8 catches and 2 TDs which is a hell of a way to get your confidence back, welcome back Wes.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – When you think about what makes an elite fantasy WR consistency has to be at the top of the list.  After watching a shining example of how inept the Cowboys offense really can be it is comforting to see that Austin was still incredibly productive.  Austin caught 10 of the 11 passes thrown at him for 146 yards and a TD, even with Dez Bryant being very active in the offense.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - Revis did not stay on Boldin all game and because of it he he was able to be a difference maker on offense for the Ravens in the toughest match up they will face offensively. Boldin was targeted 10 times last night hauling in 7 of them for 110 yards.  This was much better than what was reasonable for us to expect and has me excited to see what he will do throughout the season.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – It may not have looked like it on your fantasy score sheet unless you are in a PPR league, but Roddy White had a very good game for fantasy owners this week.  He had 111 receiving yards on a league-high 13 receptions.  The more important statistic from this game is his targets, he was targeting 23 times by Matt Ryan.  White is the entire Falcons passing offense until they reach the red zone, when Tony Gonzalez becomes relevant again.  With all these opportunities and his talent he is bound to be productive on a consistent basis.

Duds

Frank Gore, RB, SF - I don’t know what happened in this game, I am stunned.  I still can’t figure out if the Seahawks are for real, or the 49ers are not who I thought they would be.  Every 49er deserves to make this list, but Gore will take the fall as he was by far the biggest disappointment for fantasy owners this week.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Arian Foster stole the show.  No one would bother to pass when you can run the ball like that and keep Peyton Manning off the field.  Houston is still one of the top 3 passing offenses in football.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – See Andre Johnson.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – After only managing 18 rushing yards and losing a fumble Shonn Greene cost his fantasy owners a point this week and crushing Monday night dreams of many I am sure.  The fumbling is the biggest concern, because if it continues there will be zero goal line chances for Greene.

Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE – It appears that Jerome Harrison was not able to do enough to earn the starting job when he ended the season last year playing like one of the best running backs in the league.  I thought for sure that once Hardesty was put on IR Harrison would definitely be the guy, but Peyton Hillis is apparently going to cause a lot of guessing from week to week about who will have the best game for Cleveland.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - The best thing that could happen to this Bills offense is a healthy Fred Jackson.  Spiller does not have the ability to be an effective feature back in this league yet.  He will be valuable to the Bills in a change of pace role as the third down back.  A return to this role will increase his production in fantasy football as well, but if you have him you probably drafted him too high.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – I was sort of wrong about Jones, I did not think he would have a decent opportunity to be productive in this Jamaal Charles offense.  Jones got the same number of carries as Charles and did nothing with them.  If Haley can’t see that Charles needs to be the feature back then he is blind.  They were able to win, but it was close and did not need to be.  Jones has minimal value to me down the stretch unless there is an injury to Charles, but you can’t drop him yet.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN – With all the injuries, there could not be much more opportunity for Berrian and Harvin.  I can accept a bad game from a young player much more than Berrian who is one more bad week away from my dumplist.

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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