Love

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – To be clear, I couldn’t care less if RGIII plays or not.  Even if he plays, Morris’ workload WILL increase as a precaution to try and keep Griffen from running too much.  Morris was already an irreplaceable factor for this offense and given his youth, they won’t be afraid to lean on him.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers are headed on the road to New Orleans this week and that means there are two bad defenses on the field and the potential for a lot of points to be scored.  Jackson has been an amazing addition for Tampa and they have been able to keep him VERY productive.  They are going to have to throw deep to keep up with Brees and that should mean plenty of opportunity for VJax.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Law Firm has been on a tear lately and with a game against the Eagles (among the worst defenses in the NFL since firing Juan Castillo) this week, there is no reason to expect a change.  Law Firm is typically a mid-to-low end RB2 but in this matchu-up, he falls just outside the top 10.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – Alexander continues to be a force for the Chargers offense that took down Pittsburgh this past week.  Danario is a large man that uses that size to box-out defenders and give Philip Rivers somewhere to throw.  So far he is the only guy getting open with any consistency and that isn’t likely to change against a shaky Panthers secondary.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – There is no hotter QB in the NFL at the moment and especially so for fantasy owners.  Newton has had 37, 28 and 36 fantasy points in the past 3 weeks. Atlanta is the only defense that was really any good in this stretch but San Diego is far from a great defense too and I think, if your still alive in the playoffs, you’ve GOTTA keep Newton in there.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – This may seem like an obvious one here but Charles owners should have high hopes this week.  The Raiders are just 26th against the run and they are struggling as of late.  Charles is the entirety of the Kansas City offense and is almost certain to see the 100 yard mark this week.

Hate

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The fact that Turner keeled over in exhaustion at the end of the game and by coincidence fell over the goal line does not give me any confidence.  Watch the tape people, this isn’t the same guy you had on your team three years ago.  He’s too slow to get through a hole and into the second and third levels like he used to, leave him on your bench because ALL of his value is at the goal line.  It’s like starting Michael Bush.

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I won’t be surprised if he gets a big game here but it’s about risk in the playoffs and that is one thing that Moore has in spades.  The whole Raiders team is floundering a little bit and while Moore was good for you in the middle of the season, don’t look for it here.  I know the match up is appealing but you need safe and consistent, not a hail-mary.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – The Packers do not have a crippling defense by any means but the Bears DO have a pretty bad offensive line.  Clay Matthews is set to return and with all that rest, he’s going to be coming back with a vengeance. If he gets in Cutler’s face early on, it will frustrate the Bears signal caller and we’ve all seen him play when he is frustrated.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Mr. Smith, have you met Champ Bailey?  You are about to.  Old man Bailey has been playing like he’s 25 again this season and he’s doing that all with the added experience that comes from actually being 34 years old.  Jim Caldwell will utilize Ray Rice much more now that he has the offensive coordinator position and that makes Smith nothing more than a poor flex option this week. 27th among WRs in my rankings.

Bryce Brown, RB, PHI – I can’t believe analysts can still put Brown as an RB 2 this week.  I had him at 20 last week, after consecutive great games and now that he just put up zero points last week, they have him higher… it doesn’t add up to me.  You won the lottery if you started this guy and won last week, don’t try and win it twice.

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Love

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons are making an air-tight case to be considered the best team in the NFL over the first third of the season.  They are a balanced team on both sides of the ball and their only real weakness is running the ball.  This bodes well for them against a leaky secondary on Sunday when the Raiders come to town.  With Ryan at home and playing the way he is, he is on top of my QB rankings for the first time EVER.  Expect good things.

Andre Roberts, WR, ARI – I am going to keep this brief. I love both Cardinals receivers in this game. It is going to be high scoring and the Cardinals can not run the ball behind their offensive line, which is awful.  Roberts has been very consistent this season and if you haven’t seen the Bills’ secondary in action, I assure you… this guy is a good flex option this week.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – I’m not being a homer with this call I don’t think.  I acknowledge that it is a fairly large gamble going with either Bills RB this week because of the question of how the carries will be divided up but Spiller has the better big-play potential and the Cardinals defense is pretty stout this season.  Spiller is also more likely to rip off a big play and take it to the house in the passing game.  I think the Bills offense will have a lot of chances because the Cardinals offense has allowed 17 sacks over the past TWO GAMES.  Take the risk, start Spiller.

Andrew Hawkins, WR, CIN – So they play the Browns which is an obvious plus but some people might not realize that Joe Haden has been suspended for 4 games and is now going to return.  Haden is the most under rated shut-down corner in the league and will be locked on AJ Green all game.  Green owners shouldn’t worry as he has been essentially match-up proof his entire career but Haden will be there to try and keep him in check.  This means that Hawkins will be in single coverage all game and Dalton is going to be throwing his way a lot.

Andy Dalton, QB, CIN – So I caught some slack for not having this guy in my top 10… even though he is at 11.  I understand how you might think he deserves it considering his production and the fact that Newton, Brees and Cutler are all on Bye but I can’t get there yet.  He has had some INCREDIBLY good match ups thus far if you look at the statistics and this week it is tougher than you’d think. I already told you that Haden is back and that I love Hawkins but what gets lost there is how much better this defense plays when they can roll coverage away from one side of the field and rely on man-coverage against the opponents top threat.  They will still put a safety over top of Green  fairly often but Dalton’s upside is not as high as you think it is. There is no better bye-week replacement this week but you still want your regular starters in there.

Hate

Andrew Luck, QB, IND – I was super impressed with last week’s game. He’s still a rookie and he’s thrown a lot of questionable passes this year. That performance speaks volumes about Luck’s career outlook but he still has to prove he can play like that every week and not just coming off a bye.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers offense has been a big disappointment.  I expected more from Doug Martin but blame the lack of a serious threat in the passing game.  Jackson is a frustrating hit or miss player but so talented that I usually say play him every week so you don’t miss the big games… not this week. You could easily have better options because the match up is harder than you’d thing.  Brandon Flowers will lock on VJax with a safety over the top and because of that, I think Jamaal Charles beats Tampa in spite of Brady Quinn.

Alex Green, RB, GB – I can’t see Green getting more than 50% of the carries. There is more comfort and trust with Starks who has actually played with the team before the Benson injury.  Green had over 50 yards. 40+ of which were on one run.  There is a lot of trust surrounding this guy so early and it is all completely unfounded.  I’m not a big Starks believer either, I just don’t trust either guy till they give me a reason.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – The Ravens have been great so far and Smith has been a solid fantasy-producer. He is not match up proof and is VERY sittable despite the bye weeks.  You may not be able to sit him but try to.

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Studs

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – I love this time of year for fantasy owners. Weeks 2 and 3 teach us more about our draft strategies and tell us a lot about how good our teams will be for the rest of the way.  The verdict isn’t fully in on Charles yet but I did learn a lot in the last two games.  The first thing I learned is that if Charles isn’t performing well or suffering ANY pain in his knee, he will sit. The second thing I learned is that I am not worried about that.  Charles had THIRTY THREE carries just one game after he only managed one fantasy point and didn’t play in the 2nd half of week 2.  33 carries isn’t going to repeat itself, not for this runner in that offense but at least we KNOW he’s got his speed and lateral quickness back.  And if your thinking that these impressive numbers are all about that one big play… without it he still average 4.4 yards per carry on 32 carries.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – God bless this man and his family.  Smith played in this game very shortly after learning of his brother’s motorcycle accident that resulted in his death. Where he summoned the strength required to put up this performance, I couldn’t ever figure out. He hauled in 6 catches on 10 targets for 127 yards and two scores.  Not much else to say here as performances like this speak for themselves.

Andre Brown, RB, NYG – I rated Brown as a low-end RB2 or good flex-play this week but I didn’t expect the numbers he put up.  I also didn’t expect Cam Newton and the Panthers to collapse and hand the game to the Giants either.  That is why Brown looked so good… because the Panthers played awfully.  Regardless, Brown showed some traits that make him a solid RB2 for as long as Bradshaw is out and those traits were vision and patience.  Brown saw holes before they developed and the reason I know this is because he would delay himself behind his blockers and wait for them to open before putting on a burst and getting through them.  It was a very impressive performance.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben had a great game and did what he could to get the win and it worked for many of his fantasy owners at least… Ben was 36/49 for 384 yards with 4 TDs and no turnovers.  These stats are impressive considering the offensive line that guards him. He will remain a streaky player and he isn’t a reliable QB1 but when the defense isn’t particularly adept at rushing the QB, he will be ranked as one for the week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC – There was a lot of mystery around MJD at fantasy drafts.  We all expected the team to struggle but even through struggles, MJD was always a productive and elite fantasy back.  There is a big stigma surrounding players that hold out of their contracts.  Players like Chris Johnson have done it and then collapsed into complete irrelevance ever since and others come back only to suffer an early-season injury and cost fantasy-owners dearly.  MJD put those fears to bed and debunked the myth in this game.  He simply looked great in this game and had the numbers to back it up, 193 total yards and a score.  Even if he goes out and gets hurt next week, I think it’s safe to say it wasn’t because of the hold out.

Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET – He might be a second year player but Week 3 was Mikel’s first ever game. 26 carries, 100 yards and a TD. Funny thing is, the Lions always wanted him to be a weekly 100 yard rusher so expect them to keep giving him the opportunity to fulfill this need.

Duds

Mark Ingram, RB, NO – Another week and another loss for the Saints.  Ingram had fantasy value on draft day because he was the goal line back on an elite offense. Woops, this offense and this team are not what we thought they would be and neither is Ingram.

Antonio Gates, TE, SD – Admittedly the entire team stayed at home on Sunday, but Gates has NOT been worth a round 10 or higher draft pick yet. He has been drafted in higher than the 10th round in just about every league.  Most frustrating thing about this is that Rosario scored three times in Gates’ absence.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT – I had previously thought that this was the guy to own of the Steelers’ running backs. Now I just don’t want to own any of them but Mendenhall and I promise, my expectations are pretty low for him too.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – I know that the match-up was bad against Houston but Thomas had shown himself to be the top receiver in that offense.  If the Broncos are going to be a playoff contender, then Thomas must stand up and make plays in the tough games.  His value won’t take a hit from one game but it certainly got my attention.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE – I am not going to pretend like this guy isn’t still the #2 TE for fantasy owners but there is a reason I put Graham at #1 and this is why.  Gronk will do this at least one more time over the course of the season, twice if Hernandez is out a while.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I said to drop him in yesterday’s article. I’ve got nothing left to add today.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Oh Dallas, you got the win but what happened? The Buccaneers secondary has played terribly and yet, the Cowboys could only manage 283 yards passing and an INT. Disappointing and from the limited film I’ve seen on the game, it was Romo’s fault.

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Love

Robert Griffen III, QB, WAS – This is a limited love and probably not as outlandish as some other people might have this guy. I’ve got him 6th this week in my QB rankings because I would still be starting each of the top 5 guys from draft day over him.  Each of them has had at least one very mediocre week and Griffen hasn’t yet, statistically.  To me, two weeks is still a pretty small sample size and while I am being impressed by the week, I still think it is important to keep expectations manageable so that you don’t get burned.  I see a lot of Rodgers and Brady owners panicking and making trades so this creates a nice opportunity for Griffen owners to upgrade their team and, in my opinion, eliminate risk by getting rid of him.  I’ve heard of offers like Brady and Lloyd for Griffen and think they are an absolute steal.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – I personally believed that Gore and Turner still had what it takes to be an RB1 for fantasy owners. Thankfully I was at least right about Gore! He’s been a  powerhouse so far and this team looks almost unbeatable.  They are playing an old-school defense-first style that relies on the run game to wear opponents down.  They are passing more this year with Smith progressing beautifully in this offense but they revolve around Gore and the ground game.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – Well, it might not be clear in my rankings because after I had published the receivers, I found out that Hakeem Nicks will be inactive in this game for the Giants.  The defense is not one that scares me for the Panthers and if Nicks isn’t there, the sky is the limit for targets going Cruz’s way.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Another week of primary work and he looked good doing it.  His stats won’t knock you out of your chair but the game-film sure impressed me. He was quick through the hole, which is important but the two things that caught my eye the most was his vision and how he finished the runs. He did a phenomenal job of seeing holes before they opened as well as found his cut-back lanes. I’d like to see him get more carries still but this game became a shoot out and Griffen was able to keep up right up until the end.  I normally wouldnt have loved him against Cinci but after last week, I’m just not scared of them at the moment.

Dez Bryant, WR, DAL – I know that your looking at the box score against the Seahawks and asking how I can love this guy but guess what, I love Austin too! They play Tampa who is fresh off of allowing 500+ yards to Eli Manning and sits as the NFL’s worst ranked pass defense. I used to give a lot more respect to Talib but he didn’t finish last season strong and Nicks destroyed him last week.

Martellus Bennett, TE, NYG – I said in my weekly pickups list this week that Bennett was the #3 option in the passing game for the Giants. I said in the Cruz section of this column that Nicks is out. BIG boost to Bennett here because he is the best red zone threat and now the #2 option in the passing game.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – Who isn’t in love with this guy right now? I don’t know but he’s putting up unbelievable stats and I’ve been saying it a lot but he’s the first guy since Jim Brown to average over 10 yards per carry over multiple weeks.  The Bills o-line is playing some REALLY good football thus far and Spiller seems to be breaking out and is showing the potential that Buffalo saw on draft day.  On top of all that, they play Cleveland who is short Joe Haden on defense and this will make it a lot harder to get that 8th guy around the line of scrimmage. The Browns have allowed an average of 115 yards per game on the ground over the first two weeks and Spiller simply CAN NOT be benched.

Hate

Peyton Manning, QB, DEN – This isn’t due to his first quarter on Monday.  This is because of the opponent, Houston.  The Texans defense has been great thus far and with the running game firing on all cylinders, I do not think that the Broncos D-line will be having a very good week.  If the Texans can control the ball as well as the clock like I think they will, Peyton will spend a lot of time watching from the sidelines. If you’re in a 12 team league, he rates as a starter but barely. I assume you drafted yourself a competent back up and this is a week you should try and use them.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Seriously, what the hell CJ. You show a ray of hope in the preseason and get me to buy in on you. He was a first round pick! Now that the season has started, the line can’t block even a little and he just seems to being going for the home run on every play at the cost of quality 5 yard rushes that he could have if he’d hit the hole and lower his head to initiate contact with the defender. If anyone in your league still believes, trade this guy away because I’m finished if he doesn’t succeed this week.  He’s outside my top 20 already and falling fast.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE – The Ravens are on the schedule for Brady and the Pats and this is definitely a cause for concern for the Pats, who just lost to the Cardinals. Lloyd is now the top fantasy-WR on the team in my eyes but I still have Welker higher for this week alone.  Lloyd wants to work vertically but the Ravens pass rush is going to reach Brady and I think Welker gets back on the field more without Hernandez out there to play a possession-receiver role from the TE position.  You can use him this week but I ranked him as a mediocre flex-play.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL – There is just something about what happened in that game that has me really nervous here.  Jackson attempted a goal line rush and after his elbow touched the ground, the ball came out and it was ruled a fumble.  It took a challenge to get it right and on the next play, he felt he was in the endzone and was ruled short by an inch. He got up and spiked the ball out of frustration and got a 15 yard penalty and all they could get was the 3 points. Jeff Fischer never put him back in and Richardson ran well after Jackson was pulled.  You can tell me he has a groin injury but I still saw him standing next to Fisher for 2 series with his helmet under his arm. Exactly like I did in High School every week with hopes it might mean some playing time.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – The Ravens, unlike the Pats, will do a decent job giving the QB time to throw.  Boldin is becoming invisible fast and Smith’s targets are on the rise. The Pats secondary is still weak, despite containing Larry Fitzgerald in the Loss to the Cards.

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Here we go ladies and gentlemen… The kickoff to the 2012 NFL season is under-way.  We start our fantasy-coverage for week 1 with my Love and Hate lists and since you are almost definitely going to be just playing the top guys you drafted at each position, I will just highlight the good and bad match ups as well as the guys who I might have suggested you shy away from on draft day who are actually quality starts this week.

Love

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – Vick fell pretty far down on a lot of draft boards this off season.  We have gotten to the point where a lot of people have owned him in the past two seasons and he has been a very streaky performer.  His cold streaks are always caused by injury, even if he is able to start.  His style of play opens him up to a lot of hits and this is why people were wise to try and scoop someone up that was a member of the 4,000 yard club last season. But THIS week, how can you not LOVE the match up? Cleveland’s offense features a rookie QB and a rookie RB that we frankly can’t count on due to injury, there is little reason to expect them to stay on the field long. We can count on one thing for sure; given a lot of chances, Vick will produce points.  If you need any MORE convincing, in week 3 of the preseason the Eagles walked over the Browns from start to finish and Vick didn’t even see the field.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have been high on Nicks throughout the preseason and think it is VERY likely that Cruz takes a step back statistically. Nicks is a big, physical guy and is very effective in the red zone. Cruz didn’t take any of those targets from Nicks last year and he won’t this year either.  What Cruz did do was put up ridiculous numbers on huge scoring plays. In my experience TDs are fluky and almost impossible to repeat, especially when they come on such long plays.  Nicks will benefit from less defensive attention and I think is a safer bet to lead the Giants in fantasy points on the Giants.  I am not concerned about his Questionable status on the injury report for tonight’s game but you’ll know with plenty of time to take him out if he doesn’t start. Nicks seems very likely to wind up with a score as I could easily see this game coming down to a shoot out.

Michael Bush, RB, CHI – I expected to steer clear of Bush at first so we could wait and see exactly how the workload would get divided under new Offensive Coordinator, Mike Tice.  But he has said he hopes to have two thousand yard rushers this season and they are up against the Colts who were ranked 29th in the NFL vs the run. I expect the Bears to get a solid lead early and look to close out the game on the ground.  Bush could do some serious damage in garbage time and makes a solid flex-play for fantasy owners in week 1.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Johnson’s fantasy value took a hit because of a second straight season of fighting off weekly injuries and frustrating fantasy-owners. He might never be healthier than he is for this week and he won’t ever be higher on my WR rankings than he is this week as long as both Megatron and Stafford remain healthy. I’ll save the stats for my section on Schaub but for as long as Johnson remains healthy, he is a stud and an absolute must-start.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – This is another guy that got ranked considerably higher than where I had him in my draft-day rankings.  I wasn’t too big on Schaub this year because of the prevalence of the rushing attack and the fact that Andre Johnson loves to be less than 100% physically.  Right now the team is healthy and Schaub has a nice match-up vs the Miami Dolphins.  We shouldn’t expect the passing attack to rack up numbers in junk time but Miami traded away their top defensive player this preseason and now they are just way out-matched on both sides of the ball for the opening game of the season. The Dolphins secondary will still be reeling from the loss of Vontae Davis and Andre Johnson will be able to get open plenty with the offense on the field a TON.

Kendall Wright, WR, TEN – Wright is a very appealing option for me this week.  New England’s defense hasn’t gotten any better and they were pretty bad last year.  I do think Locker is pretty likely to throw a few picks but that won’t hurt Wright’s point total any and makes some serious junk-time production from guys like Wright and Washington a likely outcome.  New England allowed an average of just under 300 yards per game through the air.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – I know, I told you not to even draft this guy. Jonathan Stewart is banged up and even though Coach Rivera has indicated that he is optimistic for Stewart to be back in time, Williams will make a reasonable flex play even if Stewart is active. The Panthers are up against last season’s WORST rush defense.  They allowed an average of 24.9 fantasy points per game to opposing RB’s so even if Williams only accounts for a third of these points, he’s still getting you 8 points. And it stands to reason that Williams will get the lion’s share of the work in this game so that Stewart doesn’t put him self at too much risk.

Justin Blackmon, WR, JAC – This guy has looked great in the preseason and at times, Gabbert appeared to be a competent QB. I am going to go ahead and call this rookie wide-out a decent flex play when the match up seems favorable for Gabbert to be productive.  Minnesota allowed an average of 251 yards per game through the air and Blackmon is already the top target in that offense.  This week he is even more likely to get plenty of targets with MJD’s touches as low as they will be all season.

Hate

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – He’s made a remarkable come-back from a late-season ACL tear. Expect Gerhart to be the workhorse against the Jaguars though as I think Peterson is only going to make a brief appearance to help him get used to the speed of the game again. He hasn’t even been seeing contact in practice for very long so it would be foolish to rush him back to a leading role in the offense.  I wouldn’t be shocked if his “limited work” is at the goal line just to get people excited though so in a pinch you could try and use him.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – Normally this is a sure-fire top 10 guy but against THAT defense, I think you should temper expectations. BenJarvus Green-Ellis may have a bit of a slow start and if the run game isn’t working to full effect, shots down the field will be limited. Green is an ideal WR#2 still but that is a significant drop.

Peyton Manning, QB, DEN – I like him as a top 7 or so QB on the season but this is not the ideal welcome back test.  Admittedly, the Steel Curtain isn’t as strong as it’s been in recent years but Polamalu is still a pro bowl talent and the Steelers can always rush the passer. You might not have anyone worth a start over Peyton but if you had, say, Jay Cutler on your team too… you should give Peyton a free-pass in this one and leave him on the bench.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – The Bengals defense is under rated and until I see Smith get it done against a quality defense, I’m simply do not trust him to do it. I didn’t draft him as someone I needed to start every week and won’t be looking to use him at all this week.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – I don’t care if the match up looks good against the St. Louis Rams, I am not convinced that Smith can last through the first half of the game before he gets hurt.  I am also not confident in how many touches Mikel Leshoure will be seeing either and just can’t make myself take a chance on this guy.

Andrew Luck, QB, IND – I may have liked him among the top rookies on the season but not this week.  Chicago loves to bring quick pressure up the ‘a-gaps’ and Luck is going to have trouble. The Bears offense will do a good job extending drives and limiting Luck’s opportunities. Even in a 2 QB league, I don’t see him as worth the risk. He didn’t crack my top 25 signal-callers for week 1.

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Studs

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Of all the people I expected to carry the Lions to victory on Sunday, Smith was not one of them.  20 touches racked up 201 yards on the game for Smith and we have to be careful not to over react to this performance.  Smith needs to be owned in every league and just might be an RB2.  He is certainly going to rank as a flex play immediately but we have to look seriously at the match up before we trust him with the season on the line.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – I am not sure how much of Nelson’s success is because of Aaron Rodgers and I am not sure how much I care either. At least once a game, every game, Nelson blows the top off of the coverage on his side of the field and no one is playing QB better than Aaron Rodgers.  There is no reason to expect Nelson to stop having at least one big reception in each game.  He has even been more consistent than Jennings, he just doesn’t have more upside.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – None of the Browns RBs have played as well as Ogbonnaya did this week.  I am still very wary of exactly how effective he will be the rest of the way but he has to be owned and could be worth a flex start depending on the match up.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – The emergence of Damian Williams did what I expected it to… open up the field for Nate Washington to be more effective.  The depth chart still shows Washington at #1 but I think defenses are more concerned with Williams getting deep and coverage showed this on Sunday.  Washington had a lot of room to run his routes and get open and if Williams can find a way to keep the focus of opposing defenses, Washington could settle in as a solid WR2 for the playoffs.

Michael Bush, RB, OAK – Who would have thought that the Raiders wouldn’t even miss Darren McFadden? Not me. Bush has been unbelievable since run DMC went down and the Raiders have said that McFadden WILL NOT come back until he is 100% and while his fantasy owners might not want to hear that, Bush’s do.  Bush has been a workhorse and was again this week with 30 carries, over 100 yards and a score. That’s top-end RB2 material there.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – He might not be consistent but as we get into the playoffs, people need to throw a “hail mary” and put in a guy like Smith on the chance he has a big game.  Most leagues have “that team” that tops the entire league in scoring almost every week and it takes big-play threats like Smith to take down “that team”.  Smith is very ownable and very start-able as a flex play. If you are “that team” stick to your consistent producers that have gotten you there.

Duds

Greg Jennings, WR, GB – He got banged up in this game and missed some time but he did come back into this game.  He only caught two passes for 6 yards.  That is zero points for Rodgers’ top receiver.  I don’t think that will happen again this year.  I am not concerned but this game was a huge disappointment.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – I don’t care how bad the match up is, Mathews is supposed to be at least an RB2.  If you started him, you will agree that 2 points is NOT enough. Losing the fumble doesn’t help but if he loses the trust of Norv Turner and the Chargers’ coaching staff, his opportunities will continue to drop.  He has to turn it around fast to salvage his value.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – Wonder why I jumped off the Bills’ bandwagon so fast? This team was never a playoff-caliber team, they were just playing as a team and above their talent level. Injuries are not why they have lost the past three games but they just might be why they lose the next 6. Except for Miami and Denver in weeks 15 and 16, the Bills’ schedule is intimidating and those two games aren’t cake walks.  We saw what Miami can do against this team and Tebow just keeps winning. Johnson is down to a flex play and will fall quickly if he can’t be productive despite the teams’ short-comings.

Willis McGahee, RB, DEN – He clearly was not himself on Thursday night but the extra rest should serve him well going into their week 12 match up. I would still count him as an RB2 as so much of that offense has to be run on the ground.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – This zero point outing was baffling for me.  The one saving-quality of Matt Moore is that he trusts his top receiver and gets him the ball.  He looked like Tom Brady against Buffalo this past week and yet his top receiver did almost nothing.  I don’t think you should worry about Marshall going forward, he is a low-end WR1 or great WR2 the rest of the season.

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Pickups

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith might have lost the trust of Flacco when he dropped the almost game-winning TD pass late in the game last night. The problem is, there was no one else for Flacco to look to a few plays later.  So Smith managed to make amends and hauled in a TD grab with less than 20 seconds left in the game.  Smith is a big-play threat and has at least three receptions in 5 of the last 6 games.  He will continue to improve and he has to be owned in all leagues.

Roy Helu, RB, WAS – Helu is available in over 80% of leagues as the Redskins offense has been terrible in recent weeks. Tashard Choice joined the Skins to further cloud the workload division for Shanahan but as the season slips away from them, I think it is safe to assume that Washington will look to the young guy and see what he can do.

Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK – I have been pretty steadfast in my evaluation that Ford is the top fantasy receiver in Oakland.  Carson Palmer created some doubt in my mind as each QB will have different levels of chemistry with each receiver but I am convinced again.  Ford is the top fantasy receiver in Oakland and the only one that I would even consider starting. And he is available in over 60% of leagues.

Jake Ballard, TE, NYG – There has only been two games this season where Ballard has been under 5 fantasy points.  Those games were in weeks 2 and 3.  Ballard gets his fair share of targets and makes the most of them. I am going to be considering him a top 10 TE and a weekly starter, regardless of match up.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – He has pretty clearly established his role in the Steelers offense. He is available in just over 30% of leagues and you need to go get him if he is out there in yours. No one has been targeted more on the Steelers and I think his value is only going to continue to rise.

Ben Tate, RB, HOU – Tate is only owned in roughly 60% of leagues and should be owned in all of them.  Both Tate and Foster were over 100 yards and while Foster will remain the lead back in the Texans’ offense, Tate is going to maintain value and would be a top 15 guy in the event that Foster missed any time. In the mean time, Tate is a potential flex play in the weeks where both guys are active.

Dump List

Jonathan Baldwin, WR, KC – Just when I thought the Chiefs might turn out to be a competitor despite all their injuries, they lose to the Dolphins and can’t even manage much in the way of offensive production.  Baldwin looked like he might take off and develop into a decent fantasy-receiver. My confidence has been shaken quite a bit and Baldwin was a long-shot to begin with, so cut your losses and get rid of him now.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB – I still expect the Packers to ride the hot hand but we wont be able to see it coming when Grant is going to see the work.  He only saw 4 carries last week and Starks was who they looked to late in the game when they were trying to run the clock and seal the win.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – Williams hasn’t been in double digit fantasy points since week 1 and while he hasn’t really blanked in a game for a few weeks, in shallow leagues you can drop him for an appealing prospect like say… Torrey Smith?

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – Garcon just isn’t someone that I can trust to start.  He has issues with drops and is on the league’s last winless team. I don’t see him becoming a consistently performing fantasy-option.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – We hoped that he might be able to be decently productive as he was bound to see the lion’s share of the carries.  He didn’t get anything accomplished and if you don’t need a fill-in for next week’s nice match up against the Rams, then feel free to cut him.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – The Raiders offense is a bit of a mystery with Palmer at QB. As I said above though, Ford is the Raiders receiver that I want to start and Heyward-Bey has too big of a track record of inconsistency for me to trust him easily.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno was essentially invisible in this game. McGahee came back early from his hand injury and ran wild in this game. Moreno’s value has officially hit rock bottom and there is no reason left to keep him on your roster that I can see.

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Love

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The Falcons need to prove that they are a Super Bowl contender this year and Turner has been their most consistent performer. Cam Newton has been a play maker and has been finding a way to put up numbers against EVERYONE he has played. With the Falcons’ defense not playing up to expectations either, I think a heavy dose of Turner is the best way for the Falcons to avoid an upset at home.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Austin is coming off an injury and I would expect him to have a slow start, but the Patriots score a ton of points and struggle to stop opposing QBs.  I don’t think Dallas wins this game, but Austin and Bryant should be in for big statistical performances as they will play from behind and have little trouble passing the ball.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – Last week was a bit of a let-down for Benson owners, but he ran well and was far from a dud. This week he goes against the Colts who have not been able to stop anyone on the ground all season. Benson sees a lot of carries and Cinci tries to run first to take pressure off Andy Dalton, who will hear the footsteps of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney all day.

Jake Ballard, TE, NYG – Buffalo struggles to defend opposing tight ends. Ballard has TD’s in two straight games and this is not something you can expect to continue after this week, but the numbers say that Ballard is likely to make it three games in a row this week against the Bills. He is still outside my top 10, but if you have to fill a gap for your bye week, Ballard has a pretty good shot at a nice statistical performance.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – He hasn’t been active much, but he looks like a punishing runner when he is. Thomas goes against the Jets this week who have just had a terrible run game as of late and with Matt Moore at QB, Thomas will be the focal point if he is able to go.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith had a breakout game in week 3 and then people kind of seemed to forget about him.  He did put up a goose-egg against the Jets the following week, but Flacco looked for him a fair few times and on one play specifically he beat Revis deep. The throw was just a hair too far, but if it had connected we would be talking about him like a top 20 guy right now. He has only had just one game with fantasy points so I don’t think he is a really smart start but with bye weeks upon us, if your digging deep for a flex play… don’t just look past Smith.

Hate

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – I see a lot of people have Eli inside their top 10 QB’s and that is crazy to me. The Bills’ secondary has been playing great as of late and Eli has been known to struggle with turnovers.  Buffalo leads the NFL with 12 INTs on the season and three consecutive games with a pick 6. Eli will keep his receivers’ stats up there, but I think that interceptions will keep him from crossing the 20 point mark this week.

Tim Hightower, RB, WAS – It’s not about his talent and it’s not about the match up. We just simply don’t know how the carries will be divided. I expect Hightower to be the third down back and Torain to see the most work. But I would NEVER bet on how Shanahan will use his running backs. Hightower is a flex play at best this week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – Playing with a Raiders receiver is a lot like playing Russian roulette for fantasy owners. Heyward-Bey has seen a lot of targets as of late, but I am not going to think that the emotional performances from Sunday are likely to repeat themselves. I have written about Darrius before as well as Jacoby Ford, Chaz Schillens and Denarius Moore over the past few season and not one of them were able to do anything consistently. Jacoby Ford is the receiver I want to start from this team if I need one and it is because they use him in the running game.

Isaac Redman, RB, PIT – Redman is the best bet to see the goal line carries even if Mendenhall was active, but he is not too likely to see much more work no matter who is inactive. Dwyer was just a better runner last week and if Mendenhall doesn’t go, I would rather start Dwyer over Redman.

James Jones, WR, GB – Don’t let one big game cause you to bring a guy from free agency straight into your lineup.  Any receiver can have a big game with Aaron Rodgers at QB and last week was Jones’ turn.  Odds are it’ll be a few games before he manages to make such an impact again.  Jennings, Finley and Nelson are all going to see more targets.

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Studs

Wes Welker, WR, NE – Bill Belichick is the master of exploiting a defense’s weakness and despite the loss, week 3 was no exception.  Buffalo is now weakest in their line backing corp and the Patriots abused this group with Welker running a lot of shallow crossing routes and Gronkowski out matching the secondary and forcing safeties to get too deep to help cover Wes.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – He has just been incredible for a guy that has already turned thirty years old.  He hasn’t been a feature back long and has young legs, which has helped  him to an average yards per carry of over 6 yards. And there is no reason to be concerned with him sharing too much work with Spiller as the number of carries for each has been very one sided. Bottom line here is that Jackson is now a top 10 RB and he is still climbing as this offense has been incredibly productive thus far this season.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – Seven catches for 85 yards and three TDs. What a huge game to get from your TE position.  With Gates on his way to see a specialist and already having issues with his foot, I see Finley as the top fantasy TE in the NFL.  I’ve said it before, this guy is a nightmare to try and cover and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers know how to create mismatches with this guy. Look for a very productive season from Finley.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith looked terrible in the preseason.  So much so that the Ravens went and traded for Lee Evans to ensure some depth and talent at the position as they were pretty sure that Smith wasn’t ready to be a play maker in this league. Oops. Smith’s first three catches in the NFL came in the first quarter of week 3 since Evans was hurt and all three were TDs.  Clearly no one told Smith he isn’t ready to be a starter and I don’t see how the Ravens don’t bump him up to #2 on the depth chart permanently after this performance.

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – My bad on this one. I hated Eli in this game and didn’t see how he could be productive against this Eagles secondary. The answer was apparently Jacobs out of the backfield and short routes to play-making receivers. Eli completed 23 passes for 254 yards and 4 TDs. Most impressive to me was the lack of an INT. My faith has slightly been restored in Eli and he think he is one of the better backup QB or QB 2 options out there again.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Megatron had done nothing in the first half, like most of the Lions. But he was also a huge part of their comeback. Johnson finished over 100 yards and had two TDs for his third straight game. This guy is an absurd talent and your lucky to have him if you drafted him as this offense appears to be the real deal over the first three games.

Duds

Frank Gore, RB, SF – I am just disgusted with his lack of performance.  I had him ranked as my #5 overall player this season and it appears my faith in Gore and Coach Harbaugh were misplaced.  I think once the team gets used to their new system, he may rebound… but that hope is running out fast with each bad performance.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The Falcons can’t seem to get an early lead to save their lives.  This means that Turner’s touches are down and he simply isn’t making the most of them. I’m not as worried about him as I am Gore, but that is just because of how well the Falcons play at home.  Which means you should get a very solid game from Turner when they play in the dome.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Pats got up big early and the Law Firm was just not able to find creases in the Bills’ defensive front seven. They seemed to be there for Stevan Ridley later in the game but once Buffalo started to light up the Pats’ defense, Brady had to try and out duel Fitzpatrick and ignore the ground game.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – The Colts really just have a bad rush defense, but apparently the Steelers have a worse offensive line.  I am very worried about Mendenhall the rest of the way. He remains a top 15 RB but he is certainly falling as this offense continues to struggle.

Philip Rivers, QB, SD – Zero TDs and 2 INTs against a bad Chiefs team is shocking for me. Rivers should have picked the secondary apart and he just didn’t.  They got the win and Rivers is still an elite QB so I am not worried, but this does look  like a little more than a slow start. It is time to get nervous, but not bench Philip.

James Starks, RB, GB – Just as soon as I thought Starks was the clear guy to own in this offense, Grant goes off and Starks implodes.  Expect the Packers to ride the hot hand and make it a nightmare for fantasy owners to try and decide which one is the guy each week.

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Pickups

David Nelson, WR, BUF – He should have been picked up already, but he hasn’t been in the vast majority of leagues. Let’s face it, he is the real deal. He will catch a lot of balls for owners in PPR leagues and in this suddenly explosive Bills offense, he will rack up plenty of yardage and TD’s too. GO GET HIM OFF WAIVERS RIGHT NOW.  After beating New England to sit alone at 3-0 atop the AFC East, people will not be dismissing the Bills as a fluke anymore.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith caught his first three NFL passes early on in the first quarter. All of them were TDs.  What a breakout, complete surprise performance here from Smith.  He has to be owned in every league because he might just push past Lee Evans on the depth chart and the Ravens have been dying for a receiver to break out and take over games.  If they think Smith might be that guy, he will get a chance to prove it.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – Ridley was the most productive rusher for the Patriots in the shootout in Buffalo. He has 7 touches to BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ 9 and out rushed him 44 yards to 16. Let’s be realistic, at best we are hoping that the rookie gets moved into the rotation and helps to destroy the value of Law Firm and Woodhead. However if you have a bench spot open, go pick him up.  He is likely to touch the ball some more and if he remains more productive than Green-Ellis, he could become a viable flex play by the end of the year.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – Who is going to step up and fill in for Britt now? Well, Washington has been with the team a bit and has  had some chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck this season. Washington is immediately the most fantasy-relevant player on the Titans and he is probably a decent flex play in PPR formats without Britt on the field.

Alfonso Smith, RB, ARI – I thought that Chester Taylor was going to get the work with Beanie Wells and LeRod Stephens-Howling out for this game on Sunday. I was wrong and it was Smith that saw the lion’s share of the carries.  It is a pretty safe bet that Wells misses some time again later this season and I would say that Smith will be the every down guy even if Stephens-Howling is active.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – Manningham is going to come back and he will get his #2 job back opposite Nicks. But the Giants are still thin at receiver and Cruz is likely to jump up and play in the slot now. I am not big on Manning and do not think Cruz will be overly successful at this point but if the Giants can keep on the right track, Cruz just may end up being a good bye-week plugin.

Dump List

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Walter is back and Jones is banged up. He won’t be productive enough from #3 on the depth chart at receiver so you do not need to hold him any longer.

Deion Branch, WR, NE – I think we know what your going to get from Branch and that is a lot of bad games and few great ones.  Unfortunately, this makes him VERY scary to start any given week and really only allows him to post numbers on your bench.  If your in a 10-team league, go ahead and get someone else.

Carnell Williams, RB, STL – He ran well against the Ravens this week, but Steven Jackson came back and will take the lead role back.

Braylon Edwards, WR, SF – I am surprised to see that he is still owned in 40% of leagues. This should not be. The 9ers offense does not feature a vertical passing attack and has a mediocre at best QB. I expect Edwards to be slow to return from surgery and even when he is 100% he will not be overly productive with Alex Smith at QB.

Jerome Harrison, RB, DET – Best has been doing well and Maurice Morris seems to be the primary guy. Go get Ridley instead of holding Harrison another week.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, PIT – The Steelers offensive line is a mess and they were barely able to beat the Colts without Peyton Manning on Sunday night. Sanders has not been able to get much going this season and he definitely wont be able to be even remotely consistent this season.

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