AP Photo/Julie Jacobson
Well for the first time in 2 years we all thought it was in the bag that he would be returning for another season. And at the first whiff of a rumor it is assumed that he will not be playing. Having heard Brett’s retirement speech already I will remain under the assumption that he will be playing until he is not on the field against the Saints for the season opener. So if any of you are wondering why he is still on my rankings pretty high up there and Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are also unaffected… that is why. The most interesting part of the storyline here for fantasy football is not Tarvaris Jackson or the fall of Rice and Harvin; Instead, its that without Favre to call the audibles and boost the passing game, Adrian Peterson would likely become my number one overall RB. With Favre at QB, the Vikings dropped back to pass 7% more than in 2008 with Ferotte and Jackson at the helm (Thanks to the guys on the Fantasy Focus podcast for that stat). Having done a couple of mock drafts since the “news” about Favre I think we all need to look at the Vikings players as having big upside. Most people are letting Harvin drop into the 8th round, where he still has value with Jackson pulling the trigger… and if Favre comes back he would go in round 5 or so.
Fantasy Relevant Players
Adrian Peterson – He was our number one back last year and while people were disappointed that he did not have many HUGE games… he was a model on consistency and did nothing to lose his ranking. The reason he DID lose the ranking was merely the absurd stats that Chris Johnson put up.
Sidney Rice – Whether he has Favre or not Rice will be a very relevant fantasy WR. He will not be an elite receiver without his favorite gunslinger so his rank will need to fall if we do not hear some good news soon, but I’m not doing it yet.
D/ST – The Vikings defense comes in 3rd on my rankings despite the weakness in the secondary. To me, the success of a defense is dependent on it’s ability to stop the run, for evidence you can look at the stats on my Buffalo Bills’ defense last year.
Both last season and this upcoming one should end with similar standings. The Vikings will be bringing Favre back and the Packers are the only team with a chance at upsetting them for the division title. I expect the competition to be tight between the two powerhouses in this division, but I most look forward to how the Lions do this year! I think they have made some huge steps in improving their franchise and fantasy owners should get used to the name Matthew Stafford right now.
Today I want to discuss some of the picks made in this year’s draft that will directly impact fantasy football. It is pretty difficult for a rookie in a skill position to make a big enough splash statistically to be relevant in fantasy football, but as Percy Harvin owners can attest to… it happens. Rookies are also often drafted higher in keeper leagues so that you can reserve them for future seasons.
Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati, San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers traded up aggressively to get the 11th pick in the draft to get a new left tackle in Anthony Davis. Davis is a prototypical left tackle at 6’5’’ 323 lbs; he has long arms and quick feet. With their pick at number 17 they further fortify their offensive line with Mike Iupati. Iupati is quick and athletic and is a sure fit at guard where he can pull around the edge and seal off lanes for Frank Gore. These selections give the 49ers their physicality back up front and solidify Gore as my number four RB for next season’s draft. Alex Smith also stands to benefit from better protection up front.
Sergio Kindle and Terrance Cody, Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens did not pick in the first round this year, but got two potential first round players with the 11th and 25th picks of round two. The Ravens have been known as a defensive power house for years now, but since the emergence of Flacco, Ray Rice and now Anquan Boldin on the offensive side of the ball, the defense has slipped. The 43rd pick landed the Ravens a great edge rusher Sergio Kindle who will be transitioning from DE to OLB. The 57th pick gives the Ravens a new 354 lb nose tackle in Alabama’s Terrence Cody, and has helped shore up the hurting front seven on defense. With the addition of these two the Ravens do wonders for their defense and will return to a dominating force on that side of the ball. As of now the Ravens are my number two ranked D/ST.
Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers – I liked Matt Moore’s production at the end of last season, and was planning to list him as a sleeper for the upcoming fantasy football draft season. The Panthers first pick in this year’s draft didn’t till the second round and they jumped on the opportunity to nab the most pro-ready QB in this year’s draft class… Jimmy Clausen from Notre Dame was projected by many people to be a top 10 selection but he fell all the way down to the Panther’s lap at the 48th pick. Armanti Edwards was a QB in college but the plan is to transition him to wide receiver and utilize his throwing ability for trick plays and option plays out of the wildcat formation. And to completely kill any chance that Matt Moore is going to start for any extended period of time they also ignored plenty of available needed talent to draft Tony Pike who played for the Cincinnati Bearcats. Clausen is now the most viable QB from a fantasy standpoint but let’s be honest, you shouldn’t be drafting any of these guys.
Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings made a surprising and perplexing decision to move up in the second round to take Toby Gerhart with the 51st pick in the draft. Gerhart is a big physical back that is adept running between the tackles. In his 2009 Heisman Trophy campaign he racked up 1,871 yards and 28 TDs. He led the country in both categories, but lost the trophy to Mark Ingram Jr. of the University of Alabama by the closest margin in the history of the award (28-points). As impressive as Gerhart is I don’t think that an offense that has Adrian Peterson can get the most out of him. The issue is that because Gerhart is bigger physically than Peterson the goal line carries could very well go to Gerhart. The Vikes needed to replace Chester Taylor who was shiftier than Peterson and was a better 3rd down back for screens and check down passes, and they did not get that back in Gerhart. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and I won’t be downgrading AP from his number 2 spot because they will need him more on third down, but it will likely cost him some touchdowns by the end of the season.
Dexter McCluster, Kansas City Chiefs – The fourth pick in the 2nd round belonged to the Chiefs and they ignored a gaping need on the offensive line to add a dynamic playmaker at the running back position in Dexter McCluster. While McCluster can do more than play RB all he can really do is take work from Jamaal Charles both on offense and in the return game.
Sleeper picks from the draft for the coming fantasy season: CJ Spiller (BUF), Dez Bryant (DAL), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), Ryan Mathews (SD), Dexter McCluster (KC – deep sleeper)
3UGTZ3DCPFZS
Actually no changes, these should be all set!
Sunman
Cinci defense ok to start against Minnesota? My other choice is to get buffalo def off waivers.
I think they are ok, something has Peterson not at 100%, what that is we don’t know. What we do know is that he was absolutley a non-factor in last weeks game and Childress won’t let that happen again… With that said the Bengals are very stout vs the run, however haven’t faced more than one ELITE back this season. It will be a really interesting game, but I do not think you can trust the Bills defense in the playoffs. Also to take into consideration Harvin has had issues with migraines since he was a boy, and they have flared back up this week, he has now missed two practices.
MR.MVP
WR help who Rober Meachem (NO) @ Atl, Terrell Owens (Buf) @ KC, Michael Crabtree (SF) vs Ari, or Mario Manningham (NYG) vs Phi
I’m planning on starting RB’s Ricky Williams (Mia) @ Jac and Cedric Benson (Cin) @ Min, other option would be Laurence Maroney(NE) vs Car.. what do you think??
Well MVP, I see no reason to hold a roster spot for Manningham if you can get a britt, or a crabtree, or avant, or lots of people really so your good to go ahead and drop him. TO is your starter this week, the Chiefs are not a very good team by any stretch, and apart from his turn on Revis island (I think he had a photo shoot there for his modeling gig) TO has been very productive recently. Trust him against a week secondary as the Bills are likely to slide in draft position this week after a win.
Benson is a workhorse, 30+ carries last week, you got it right and here is why: Sammy Morris looked explosive last week as well as Fred Taylor is possibly making his return this week. Maroney looked good, but there are two guys around now that will take goal line work (Taylor) and 3rd down as well as some regular work (Morris). Not much is left as far as being relevant in fantasy football.
T Hop
Hi Big Jim,
I can start 2 RBs, which 2 do I start. Addai, D. Williams, or J. Charles. I’m completely stuck here so thanks for your help!
This actually goes a little contrary to my rankings, but I’m going to put a stipulation on it. I would start Charles and Addai, however, If Williams looks like he will be 100% based off late week practices then go with him over Charles. This is the playoffs so we can’t take a risk and bench a guy like Williams if he is healthy.
Willie M.
hey Jim two questions:
1. Whats the deal with Mike Sims-Walker; yahoo says he has a calf injury. Is he worth a start?
2. Whats the deal with Kenny Britt and Justin Gage? yahoo says Gage is back in the starting lineup but im still starting Britt at this point. Good idea?
Well Willie, MSW does indeed have a calf injury, but he will be a game time decision for Sunday so we’ll have to wait until then to decide. His role might be minimized but i cannot speak to whether he is still worth a start without your other receivers. Also Gage will be coming back at some point, but he has been out a while and will take some time to get used to the speed of the game again. He won’t likely start eating at Britt’s productivity for a couple weeks.
Josh
which 2 wrs???
ocho, sims walker, V.Jax, smith NYG, D.Mason
thanks
VJax and Ocho – Jackson wont stay in this slump, I still trust him as a WR one without a doubt. The Vikes have proven they can be thrown on so Ocho should be just fine as well assuming they Bengals O-Line can contain Jared Allen. I think they do a good enough job where Ocho gets in the end zone (this is what play action is for, and why Benson gets 30 carries a game).
