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Love

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – To be clear, I couldn’t care less if RGIII plays or not.  Even if he plays, Morris’ workload WILL increase as a precaution to try and keep Griffen from running too much.  Morris was already an irreplaceable factor for this offense and given his youth, they won’t be afraid to lean on him.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers are headed on the road to New Orleans this week and that means there are two bad defenses on the field and the potential for a lot of points to be scored.  Jackson has been an amazing addition for Tampa and they have been able to keep him VERY productive.  They are going to have to throw deep to keep up with Brees and that should mean plenty of opportunity for VJax.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Law Firm has been on a tear lately and with a game against the Eagles (among the worst defenses in the NFL since firing Juan Castillo) this week, there is no reason to expect a change.  Law Firm is typically a mid-to-low end RB2 but in this matchu-up, he falls just outside the top 10.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – Alexander continues to be a force for the Chargers offense that took down Pittsburgh this past week.  Danario is a large man that uses that size to box-out defenders and give Philip Rivers somewhere to throw.  So far he is the only guy getting open with any consistency and that isn’t likely to change against a shaky Panthers secondary.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – There is no hotter QB in the NFL at the moment and especially so for fantasy owners.  Newton has had 37, 28 and 36 fantasy points in the past 3 weeks. Atlanta is the only defense that was really any good in this stretch but San Diego is far from a great defense too and I think, if your still alive in the playoffs, you’ve GOTTA keep Newton in there.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – This may seem like an obvious one here but Charles owners should have high hopes this week.  The Raiders are just 26th against the run and they are struggling as of late.  Charles is the entirety of the Kansas City offense and is almost certain to see the 100 yard mark this week.

Hate

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The fact that Turner keeled over in exhaustion at the end of the game and by coincidence fell over the goal line does not give me any confidence.  Watch the tape people, this isn’t the same guy you had on your team three years ago.  He’s too slow to get through a hole and into the second and third levels like he used to, leave him on your bench because ALL of his value is at the goal line.  It’s like starting Michael Bush.

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I won’t be surprised if he gets a big game here but it’s about risk in the playoffs and that is one thing that Moore has in spades.  The whole Raiders team is floundering a little bit and while Moore was good for you in the middle of the season, don’t look for it here.  I know the match up is appealing but you need safe and consistent, not a hail-mary.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – The Packers do not have a crippling defense by any means but the Bears DO have a pretty bad offensive line.  Clay Matthews is set to return and with all that rest, he’s going to be coming back with a vengeance. If he gets in Cutler’s face early on, it will frustrate the Bears signal caller and we’ve all seen him play when he is frustrated.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Mr. Smith, have you met Champ Bailey?  You are about to.  Old man Bailey has been playing like he’s 25 again this season and he’s doing that all with the added experience that comes from actually being 34 years old.  Jim Caldwell will utilize Ray Rice much more now that he has the offensive coordinator position and that makes Smith nothing more than a poor flex option this week. 27th among WRs in my rankings.

Bryce Brown, RB, PHI – I can’t believe analysts can still put Brown as an RB 2 this week.  I had him at 20 last week, after consecutive great games and now that he just put up zero points last week, they have him higher… it doesn’t add up to me.  You won the lottery if you started this guy and won last week, don’t try and win it twice.

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Love

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – Making a claim about VJax’s production is always playing with fire.  He takes plays off and looks slow and tired some games but coming off of a long rest following their Thursday night game, Jackson seems poised for a big game.  Josh Freeman has been playing great for 3 weeks in a row now and Jackson had all that time for his legs to get fresh.  Oakland is a soft match up for receivers too. REALLY like him this week, only bench him if you have three top 10 guys who are very consistent.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Yes, he’s been bad lately. Wildly inconsistent and not even close to what you were hoping for when you drafted him.  He still has a lot of big-play ability and his upside is still pretty high up there. He plays against a Redskins secondary that can’t stop anyone and can’t rush the quarterback.  This has the potential to be his biggest game of the season, even though his 37 points against Atlanta will be tough to top.  You would be foolish to bench him now.

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – I was in the “don’t draft this guy” camp during the preseason. Mostly because people were so crazy in love with him that they were taking him in the first two rounds… Which I still think was insane and stupid.  But i’m becoming less and less confident about it with each passing week.  Clearly health isnt an issue after his big game last week and the Ravens defense has been being run on like crazy in recent weeks. He’s a top 10 guy with this match-up.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Its weird for me to have this guy outside my top 15 and classify him as a love… but the Eagles offense has struggled a lot recently, losing three straight games. The Saints as an opponent is nice though as their defense has been bad and their offense has still been effective.  Look for a high scoring game and look for Maclin to have a big game.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT – This guy has been playing like exactly the type of back that Steeler fans love to see. He’s quick to the hole and physical with the ball in his hands.  Ive heard some lofty comparisons to Bettis and while I won’t go there yet, I believe he is the new starting RB for the Steelers and in-line for 60% of the work, even after Mendenhall returns.  The Giants aren’t a great match-up here but in order to slow their pass rush, the Steelers will have to run the ball a good amount.

Hate

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – On talent alone, you HAVE to put him as a top 5 WR in the NFL.  Situation matters and the Cardinals are awful.  I still don’t know how they started 4-0 with no running game, no offensive line and just a slightly better than good defense.  This isn’t an 8 win ball-club even with the start and unless teams stop being successful at taking Fitz out of the game, I can’t even list him as a top 20 guy.  Sad to say but bench him.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – You may look at his recent performances and think he’s back.  I look at them and see a guy that can be productive against GREAT match ups, which is, with one exception, the only time he’s even been DECENT this year.  Guess what? Chicago is not a good match-up and Johnson is not a good play this week.  If he does well in this game, I will stand up and take notice and it WILL reflect in my rankings but I was actually disappointed with his performance last week so I am not going to reward him for being decent.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – I love their match-up and I like Thomas but he’s only gotten a fair-share of the work ONCE while Bush has been around and I’m not sold that he’s going to repeat that number of carries again.  Bush is a better back and especially for this match-up but Thomas is an OK fill-in or flex play as a goal line back if you need one pretty bad.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – If you’ve got Romo, you NEED other options.  Romo is like Jay Cutler without the good games this year.  He simply isn’t a starting caliber fantasy QB any longer.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – Listen, I know he’s been good and I know that I wrote a section above this about the nice match-up, etc… But the WR talent pool is as deep as it’s been in my lifetime and Williams has not PROVEN to be a consistent threat. With bye weeks, he’s an acceptable plug in but he’s at 35 in my rankings… you can find better.

Michael Bush, RB, CHI – Did you think I was kidding in my one-liners post? Nope. HE is outside my top 30 and SHOULD be benched if at all possible.

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Ben Roethlisberger has not scored fewer than 13 fantasy points in any game this season.

Big Ben is 8th in fantasy points among QB’s and has already had his bye week.

Big Ben plays against Washington in week 8, who is allowing an average of 328 yards per game through the air.

The Steelers running backs are incredibly banged up.

Big Ben is a top 10 QB again, even without any teams on bye.

Josh Gordon has 4 TD’s in his last 3 games.

Gordon dropped a sure-fire second TD pass last week.

Gordon has scored more fantasy points on the season than Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Brandon Lloyd and Steve Smith.

Gordon is STILL available in over 60% of leagues.

Josh Gordon is a flexible receiver during the bye weeks.

Alfred Morris is one yard off of being the NFL’s leading rusher.

Morris has not once rushed for more than 120 yards.

Morris has only one game with fewer than 10 fantasy points

Alfred Morris is the most consistent RB in the NFL.

I still have a serious man-crush on Alfred Morris.

Percy Harvin has only had over 20 fantasy points in a game once this season

Harvin is the fourth highest scoring fantasy receiver in the NFL.

Harvin has been active for EVERY game since week 14 of 2010.

Harvin has caught at least one pass in every NFL game that he has played in.

Percy Harvin is officially a “stud”.

My ONLY concern with Darren McFadden during the preseason was his durability.

Darren McFadden is only rushing for just over 3 yards per carry.

McFadden has not been injured at all this season.

McFadden is well on his way to being the biggest bust of your 2012 fantasy draft.

Vincent Jackson has 4 TDs in the last 3 games.

VJax has over 15 fantasy points in 4 of the 6 games he has played this season.

In the next four weeks, the Buccaneers do not play a single team that is in the top 10 of pass defenses.

Vincent Jackson is an excellent WR2 for further notice.

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Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – Active

Dez Bryant, WR, DET – Active

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – Active

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – Inactive

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – Active

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – Active

Jimmy Graham, TE, NO - Inactive

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Love

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons are making an air-tight case to be considered the best team in the NFL over the first third of the season.  They are a balanced team on both sides of the ball and their only real weakness is running the ball.  This bodes well for them against a leaky secondary on Sunday when the Raiders come to town.  With Ryan at home and playing the way he is, he is on top of my QB rankings for the first time EVER.  Expect good things.

Andre Roberts, WR, ARI – I am going to keep this brief. I love both Cardinals receivers in this game. It is going to be high scoring and the Cardinals can not run the ball behind their offensive line, which is awful.  Roberts has been very consistent this season and if you haven’t seen the Bills’ secondary in action, I assure you… this guy is a good flex option this week.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – I’m not being a homer with this call I don’t think.  I acknowledge that it is a fairly large gamble going with either Bills RB this week because of the question of how the carries will be divided up but Spiller has the better big-play potential and the Cardinals defense is pretty stout this season.  Spiller is also more likely to rip off a big play and take it to the house in the passing game.  I think the Bills offense will have a lot of chances because the Cardinals offense has allowed 17 sacks over the past TWO GAMES.  Take the risk, start Spiller.

Andrew Hawkins, WR, CIN – So they play the Browns which is an obvious plus but some people might not realize that Joe Haden has been suspended for 4 games and is now going to return.  Haden is the most under rated shut-down corner in the league and will be locked on AJ Green all game.  Green owners shouldn’t worry as he has been essentially match-up proof his entire career but Haden will be there to try and keep him in check.  This means that Hawkins will be in single coverage all game and Dalton is going to be throwing his way a lot.

Andy Dalton, QB, CIN – So I caught some slack for not having this guy in my top 10… even though he is at 11.  I understand how you might think he deserves it considering his production and the fact that Newton, Brees and Cutler are all on Bye but I can’t get there yet.  He has had some INCREDIBLY good match ups thus far if you look at the statistics and this week it is tougher than you’d think. I already told you that Haden is back and that I love Hawkins but what gets lost there is how much better this defense plays when they can roll coverage away from one side of the field and rely on man-coverage against the opponents top threat.  They will still put a safety over top of Green  fairly often but Dalton’s upside is not as high as you think it is. There is no better bye-week replacement this week but you still want your regular starters in there.

Hate

Andrew Luck, QB, IND – I was super impressed with last week’s game. He’s still a rookie and he’s thrown a lot of questionable passes this year. That performance speaks volumes about Luck’s career outlook but he still has to prove he can play like that every week and not just coming off a bye.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers offense has been a big disappointment.  I expected more from Doug Martin but blame the lack of a serious threat in the passing game.  Jackson is a frustrating hit or miss player but so talented that I usually say play him every week so you don’t miss the big games… not this week. You could easily have better options because the match up is harder than you’d thing.  Brandon Flowers will lock on VJax with a safety over the top and because of that, I think Jamaal Charles beats Tampa in spite of Brady Quinn.

Alex Green, RB, GB – I can’t see Green getting more than 50% of the carries. There is more comfort and trust with Starks who has actually played with the team before the Benson injury.  Green had over 50 yards. 40+ of which were on one run.  There is a lot of trust surrounding this guy so early and it is all completely unfounded.  I’m not a big Starks believer either, I just don’t trust either guy till they give me a reason.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – The Ravens have been great so far and Smith has been a solid fantasy-producer. He is not match up proof and is VERY sittable despite the bye weeks.  You may not be able to sit him but try to.

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Love

Robert Griffen III, QB, WAS – This isn’t a matter of me changing my mind or jumping to a conclusion. I feel as though I have been very level-headed and consistent in my analysis of RG3 thus far.  The reason that Griffen is even STARTABLE is not his arm, rather his legs.  Just as with Tebow being a top 10 guy at the end of last season, the consistency that 50 or so rushing yards provides a quarterback is undeniable. That yardage is worth two points throwing but 5  points with his feet. The reason that I have the rookie in my top 3 for this week is the match up; Tampa Bay is the absolute worst pass defense in the league over three weeks.  They are also the absolute BEST rush defense.  Now your saying “I thought RG3′s value was dependent on running the ball?!” It is but defending a QB is a lot different than defending the standard rushing threat and the stats on this defense are still skewed by the 10 yard rushing day of the Panthers in week 1. You can’t bench this guy this week unless you own Rodgers or Brady, who I simply refuse to bench for any reason still.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – All the concerns aside, this week I have none.  Buffalo’s new defensive scheme has not really clicked with the guys on the feild yet and except for against the Chiefs, they really haven’t held anyone down yet. They HAVE made strides each week but the play in the secondary has been poor and the only chance they will have at containing the Pats is to pressure Brady.  When Brady gets pressure, they run a lot of short passing routes to Welker. This game has the potential to be the highest fantasy point total of the season for all Patriot weapons in the passing game.

Doug Martin, RB, TB – What the Redskins dealt with the last two weeks is what I believe will be the norm.  A high-scoring game where the Skins’ defense just craps out on them by the end.  Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo were the best two players on the front seven of Washington and since they are both on IR, all bets are off.  It will at least take a couple of months for them to fill these holes and become capable of stuffing the run.  Martin may not have been a stat-machine thus far but he has looked really good on film and is due a break out performance VERY soon. I believe it will be this week.

Matt Ryan, QB, CAR – The Falcons at home are just one of the most appealing offenses for fantasy owners. The dome provides perfect conditions to move the ball in the air and even outdoors, these Falcons have been nothing short of impressive thus far.  With New Orleans three games back already, the division is theirs for the taking and they will be thought of as the best team in the NFC before long if San Francisco doesn’t get back on track immediately. He’s in that elite class as far as I am concerned for as long as Cam and Stafford are still struggling.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – He is a VERY hit or miss guy, so I wouldn’t fall-over if he literally had zero points on Monday. This is why he didn’t crack the top 20. The match up dictates that you’ve got to get him in your lineup though.  I’ve already talked about the injuries in the front-seven but Orakpo was by and far the best pass rusher the Skins had

Cedric Benson, RB, GB – He really hasn’t looked too impressive yet. He had a nice game and the Packers are definitely using him so that is enough when you play against the worst rush defense in the league.  New Orleans has allowed big games to running backs each week thus far and the team is just in turmoil right now. Green Bay is mad about the “loss” to the Seahawks on Monday night and they are finally getting back to regular, regular-season games. By that I mean not in prime-time, rather on Sunday afternoon.  Don’t over-think it here, It is a pretty safe bet to start a running back whose opponent is allowing an average of 215 yards per game on the ground.

Hate

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – Last week was his best week and it’s not that I actually hate the guy, I just want to caution his owners here.  This is a RUN-FIRST team…Don’t forget.  Don’t get upset that he was on your bench for the big week and try and get him in there this week in a good match-up. Good match-ups scare me more here because I am so worried that the Texans just run the ball down the throat of the Titans the entire game with both backs and Schaub gets almost nothing done.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, I hate you.  Your not going to fool me again, Jay. He’s talented enough to have a good game this week but I want Forte back and some consistent numbers before I trust Cutler as a top 10 guy again. Also, the Cowboys defense has been very good this year and is among the most underrated defenses in the league.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – He’s fallen to a flex-play, surprisingly.  While I believe that he and the Packers offense will rebound well this season, I want to know more about how they are going to use these guys before I consider him the WR2 I expected him to be.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – Despite all the scoring that I think is going to happen in this game, I’d have to say to just bench Ridley this week if you’ve got a good roster.  The Pats really seemed back to a committee in the backfield against the Ravens and the way to beat my Bills is vertically down the field. Shh, don’t tell the Patriots.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – He might still rank as a flex-option but that is only because of the bye weeks.  Britt looked better last week and if he had a good match-up i’d rank him as a really solid flex-guy but try and avoid using him against the Texans, who just bottle up Demaryius Thomas last week.

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