Love

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is averaging 20 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks against pretty good match-ups.  Speaking of good match-ups… The Broncos play against the Browns and the Chiefs to close out the season.  Cleveland this week and considering Joe Haden can actually cause some problems for opponents, I look for Denver to give the Browns a heavy helping of the run game.  He has a pretty good chance for 100 yards and a score here but he is only listed as an RB2 in my rankings because we haven’t seen enough tape for me to be too confident yet.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots aren’t playing for a whole lot this week but come on… Brady vs the Jags? That’s a pretty great match-up for your Super Bowl week!  Welker is going to be free to roam around the line of scrimmage all game and Brady is going to use him to pick the defense apart.  I like Lloyd a lot too as a really good flex option but Welker is a must-start in almost any imaginable circumstance.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – I hate to say it but for fantasy purposes, Romo has actually been decent.  If you were able to get two serviceable Quarterbacks and did a good job of deciding which to play, you could easily be in the Super Bowl right now.  If Romo is one of those guys, he is your choice this weekend against a soft Saints defense.  Hopefully Dez Bryant isn’t affected as severely by his finger injury but he was still a quality play for fantasy owners even with visible signs of pain.  The Cowboys are also benefiting from the work of DeMarco Murray once again and Romo is most effective in the play-action passing situations.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Morris is a beast.  Last week, with Kirk Cousins at QB and the defense knowing that he was going to be a huge factor, he still got it done with 20 fantasy points.  RG3 is going to play this week and Philly, who is already weak to the run, will not even be able to bring an 8th man into the box very often.  Bottom line is that, in the Playoffs, you NEED consistency at every position and Morris is as close to a sure-thing as it gets for 100 yards rushing for players not named Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – James Jones may lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns but he isn’t even close to the lead in targets or receptions on his own team.  Scores are fluky and not easy to do with consistency.  Cobb is a FAR safer option this week and Jones is more of a flex-option.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – There can’t be many of you left in the Super Bowl if you own this guy but maybe you capitalized on Alfred Morris and didn’t use CJ much until late in the season.  Either way, if you’ve got him, you may have to start him but try not to.  His value is almost entirely in the one big play he has been getting more often than not.  If he doesn’t get that play, he won’t have more than 5 points and you can’t take that chance.  Not with as bad as his o-line is, especially.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – It’s a shame that the team is in disarray right now because this should be a really nice match-up.  Now it’s a complete crap-shoot because given how poor the entire team played last week, Coughlin could potentially do anything with his running backs this week.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Steer clear of Freeman this week against the Rams.  They are no slouch on defense and after the entire team imploded last week, if your still alive, you wan’t to stay away from them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have no choice but to play him in a Super Bowl match-up this week and I am really nervous about it.  Like I just said, this team is a mess and while they have a really good chance of rebounding VERY strong and blowing up the scoreboard, it’s a gamble and as I’ve said a thousand times so far this post-season… this is not the time for a gamble.

Anotonio Brown, WR, PIT – I loved seeing him rebound last week too but you CAN NOT forget how bad he was for the entire rest of the season, before his injury.  WAY too risky.

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Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 yards rushing in a single season was set in 1984.

This record was believed by many to be unbreakable in the modern era of pass-first offense.

Adrian Peterson is just 294 yards away from that record with two games left to play.

The Vikings are still in the Playoff hunt.

They face Houston and Green Bay in these next two games and must win both.

Peterson is averaging over 160 rushing yards per game since week 7.

Eli Manning was drafted as a QB that was just outside the elite tier of guys at his position.

Many believed that he was going to take a step forward this season and join that elite class.

Eli is the 19th best QB in the NFL as far as fantasy points scored on the season.

In 4 of the last 7 games, Eli has 5 of fewer fantasy points.

Eli has only had THREE 300+ yard passing games on the season.

If you are still alive in the playoffs and Eli is your QB, you are incredibly lucky.

Eli is UNSTARTABLE the rest of the season.

Demaryius Thomas now has 5 straight games under 100 yards receiving.

He has not scored a TD in 2 straight games.

The Broncos offense has been just fine in these games.

Thomas will remain a top 10 fantasy WR on my rankings.

I hate Tony Romo.  He is an AWFUL NFL QB.

He makes incredibly stupid decisions at seemingly random times and I would not trust him to run my offense if I was an NFL head coach.

Tony Romo is a top 10 fantasy QB.

I surprised myself saying that, as I have been very critical of Romo all season long.

Tony has had double digit fantasy points every week since week 4.

Romo plays two BAD secondaries in his final two games. (New Orleans and Washington)

I would start Romo in the Super Bowl over Roethlisberger, Dalton, Stafford, Eli Manning, Freeman, Flacco and Schaub.

The NFL leader in touchdown receptions is James Jones.

Jones has just half the catches of Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker.

Jones has a measly 622 receiving yards.

James Jones will not be my top ranked Packers wide receiver.

I wish you all the best of luck in your super bowl match-ups this weekend.

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Danny Amendola, WR, STL - Inactive

Donald Brown, RB, IND - Active

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE - Active

Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE - Active

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – Inactive

Isaac Redman, RB, PIT - Inactive

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE - Active

Wes Welker, WR, NE - Active

Titus Young, WR, DET - Active

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Love

Robert Griffen III, QB, WAS – This isn’t a matter of me changing my mind or jumping to a conclusion. I feel as though I have been very level-headed and consistent in my analysis of RG3 thus far.  The reason that Griffen is even STARTABLE is not his arm, rather his legs.  Just as with Tebow being a top 10 guy at the end of last season, the consistency that 50 or so rushing yards provides a quarterback is undeniable. That yardage is worth two points throwing but 5  points with his feet. The reason that I have the rookie in my top 3 for this week is the match up; Tampa Bay is the absolute worst pass defense in the league over three weeks.  They are also the absolute BEST rush defense.  Now your saying “I thought RG3′s value was dependent on running the ball?!” It is but defending a QB is a lot different than defending the standard rushing threat and the stats on this defense are still skewed by the 10 yard rushing day of the Panthers in week 1. You can’t bench this guy this week unless you own Rodgers or Brady, who I simply refuse to bench for any reason still.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – All the concerns aside, this week I have none.  Buffalo’s new defensive scheme has not really clicked with the guys on the feild yet and except for against the Chiefs, they really haven’t held anyone down yet. They HAVE made strides each week but the play in the secondary has been poor and the only chance they will have at containing the Pats is to pressure Brady.  When Brady gets pressure, they run a lot of short passing routes to Welker. This game has the potential to be the highest fantasy point total of the season for all Patriot weapons in the passing game.

Doug Martin, RB, TB – What the Redskins dealt with the last two weeks is what I believe will be the norm.  A high-scoring game where the Skins’ defense just craps out on them by the end.  Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo were the best two players on the front seven of Washington and since they are both on IR, all bets are off.  It will at least take a couple of months for them to fill these holes and become capable of stuffing the run.  Martin may not have been a stat-machine thus far but he has looked really good on film and is due a break out performance VERY soon. I believe it will be this week.

Matt Ryan, QB, CAR – The Falcons at home are just one of the most appealing offenses for fantasy owners. The dome provides perfect conditions to move the ball in the air and even outdoors, these Falcons have been nothing short of impressive thus far.  With New Orleans three games back already, the division is theirs for the taking and they will be thought of as the best team in the NFC before long if San Francisco doesn’t get back on track immediately. He’s in that elite class as far as I am concerned for as long as Cam and Stafford are still struggling.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – He is a VERY hit or miss guy, so I wouldn’t fall-over if he literally had zero points on Monday. This is why he didn’t crack the top 20. The match up dictates that you’ve got to get him in your lineup though.  I’ve already talked about the injuries in the front-seven but Orakpo was by and far the best pass rusher the Skins had

Cedric Benson, RB, GB – He really hasn’t looked too impressive yet. He had a nice game and the Packers are definitely using him so that is enough when you play against the worst rush defense in the league.  New Orleans has allowed big games to running backs each week thus far and the team is just in turmoil right now. Green Bay is mad about the “loss” to the Seahawks on Monday night and they are finally getting back to regular, regular-season games. By that I mean not in prime-time, rather on Sunday afternoon.  Don’t over-think it here, It is a pretty safe bet to start a running back whose opponent is allowing an average of 215 yards per game on the ground.

Hate

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – Last week was his best week and it’s not that I actually hate the guy, I just want to caution his owners here.  This is a RUN-FIRST team…Don’t forget.  Don’t get upset that he was on your bench for the big week and try and get him in there this week in a good match-up. Good match-ups scare me more here because I am so worried that the Texans just run the ball down the throat of the Titans the entire game with both backs and Schaub gets almost nothing done.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, I hate you.  Your not going to fool me again, Jay. He’s talented enough to have a good game this week but I want Forte back and some consistent numbers before I trust Cutler as a top 10 guy again. Also, the Cowboys defense has been very good this year and is among the most underrated defenses in the league.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – He’s fallen to a flex-play, surprisingly.  While I believe that he and the Packers offense will rebound well this season, I want to know more about how they are going to use these guys before I consider him the WR2 I expected him to be.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – Despite all the scoring that I think is going to happen in this game, I’d have to say to just bench Ridley this week if you’ve got a good roster.  The Pats really seemed back to a committee in the backfield against the Ravens and the way to beat my Bills is vertically down the field. Shh, don’t tell the Patriots.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – He might still rank as a flex-option but that is only because of the bye weeks.  Britt looked better last week and if he had a good match-up i’d rank him as a really solid flex-guy but try and avoid using him against the Texans, who just bottle up Demaryius Thomas last week.

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Question 1. Asked by @mafmsu.

@BigJim_SFL Lance Moore or Eric Decker in my flex spot, I think both are due to find the end zone.

Answer

Keep an eye on Colston’s status for this game as we get closer to game-time.  He has been affected on the field so far and I personally think that as a result, Moore is the guy to start here.  If Colston is indeed inactive for the game, then the balance shifts even farther in Moore’s favor here.  Thomas has been Peyton’s favorite target and while I expected that to be the case, I thought it would take 5 or 6 weeks for them to develop that chemistry.  Compound that issue with a REALLY difficult match-up this week and Moore just feels like the safer guy AND the guy with more upside.

Question 2. Asked by @gibbyp2.

@ BigJim_SFL donnie avery wr or kenny britt wr

Answer

These are some pretty poor options this week in my opinion. If Collie is out for this game then Avery is a fine option but I am concerned that the targets will be pretty evenly split between the two. I am probably playing Avery anyways due to a great, soft match up against the Jags. Make Kenny Britt prove that he is back to form before you take a chance starting him.

Question 3. Asked by @Shaban09.

@BigJim_SFL was offered decker for welker in non-ppr league. Thoughts?

Answer

I don’t think that this is a good idea. I can understand trying to bail out on Welker but the Hernandez injury is going to force Welker on the field.  The Pats simply won’t be able to line up with two tight ends that often and we should see Edelman and Welker on the field a LOT more often in this game.  You should wait a couple of games and see if you can’t get a better value on your trade.

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Studs

Robert Griffen III, QB, WAS – Griffen became the first player to EVER amass 300 yards passing, at least 2 TDs and 0 INT’s in his debut performance.  I want to caution people from assuming that RG3 is this season’s Cam Newton.  There was NEVER a Cam Newton before and I will continue to assume that these young guys who have early success are going to be inconsistent and hard to trust until they prove to me that I’m wrong, just like Cam did.

Kevin Ogletree, WR, DAL – With all the Cowboys receiving threats banged up and out of sync due to missing practice, Ogletree has a CAREER day. As I said yesterday, his game totals in week 1 stack up favorably against the entire rest of his career.  I think we can expect Ogletree to be a poor-man’s Laurent Robinson from last season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – I’m going to keep this brief because talking about my Bills makes me want to tear my hair out and hibernate until next season already.  Fred Jackson is out for 3-8 weeks and this job is WITHOUT A DOUBT Spiller’s. After coming in for Jackson on Sunday, CJ totaled 169 yards and 2 scores with a lost fumble. Spiller is a mediocre RB2 and great flex play for as long as Jackson is out.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – Can you believe this guy was a top 10 QB? Me neither. Don’t freak out and don’t go grab him… this team has some serious problems and my major issue is Sanchez’s talent.  Treat this as a fluke and maybe give him a bench spot after next week if he can repeat this performance.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – Shane Vereen wasn’t there for the Pats on Sunday but from a team that has always been a committee, no matter who is healthy, Ridley did it all this week. 21 carries for 125 yards and a score was a big surprise to me. It will get more murky in the Pats backfield once Vereen comes back but until then, I’d be willing to risk being burned and start Ridley next week as an RB2 or flex.

Lance Moore, WR, NO – Now this was admittedly a weird game but, Moore saw 10 targets with his team playing from behind.  I don’t have stats to see what quarter the targets came in but he was clearly being targeted more than I thought he would and he wasn’t deemed own-able by a lot of people in a standard, 10 team league.  That is different now. PPR flex play and bench depth is how I see Moore now.

Duds

Wes Welker, WR, NE – Welker was not on the field all the time and he wasn’t the most targeted receiver… The Pats aren’t typically an open book with injuries and maybe Welker was slightly banged up… but I don’t think so.  We need to keep an eye open to figure this out but you gotta keep running Welker out there a couple more weeks, no matter how painful it gets.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Alright Turner, the offense actually appears to be moving though the air.  The reason I believe that they are really shying away from the run is that Turner did so poorly ON THE ROAD.  In the past they leaned on Turner and the run game when they traveled and Matt Ryan just went nuts in this game anyways. You’ve gotta love what you saw from the passing game… unless you own Turner.  Try and get him to your bench if you can… but it will probably be tough.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I am not going to panic as the Giants as a whole did not play a good football game but, I think Nicks is the guy they look at to pick them up and give them a tide-turning play and he couldn’t do that.  3 points is NOT enough from a WR1 and I know I’m not alone in having a team at 0-1 because of him.  Expect better the rest of the way and try to remember that the Giants are historically slow starters.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – In the preseason, CJ looked almost back to 2k form.  He looked more like he was in 1k form in this game.  The Titans were facing the aerial assault of Tom Brady but they kept the game in reach for a while and if Johnson was more effective, he’d have gotten more touches. The lack of RB depth forced people to take a chance on Johnson but he could prove to cost a LOT of people their season if he can’t get it turned around. Now.

Peyton Hillis, RB, KC – This was the “back up” that was supposed to be safest to play… Charles was indeed held to a limited number of touches and HE was effective with them… but the Chiefs were down quick and had to throw, leaving Hillis with not much to do. Don’t overreact yet but maybe he won’t be the smartest flex play until that offense settles down.

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